Not too long of a reply today
The red bit is almost exciting.It is not completely speculation as in a guessing game
Speculation isn't a guessing game, it's based on theories without proper evidence to back it up.
Hence: when a theory is untested, it's speculation, as simple as that (whether accurate or not).
I am not quite sure what you mean by believe/denial stage.
I was thinking of
this chart as a representation of that.
You believe and I could be in denial.
Yeah, but I don't really care either way.
Lol, that's fair enough.
I am just saying what I think will happen. You already bet on down and then you seem to be investing more than warranted into that. I don't tend to get so attached to short term price moves... I just get a bit of an inclination that the odds of going up in no man's land becomes closer to 60/40 rather than 50/50.. and so it might not even be a great difference in the odds, so I hardly even change anything that I tend to normally do, even though I might talk about the ideas of less resistance when in noman's land, even though there could be a lot of battles and even a lot of rapid movement due to inability to keep BTC on the order books... but still does not mean that the trend is anything other than UPpity.. .. with slightly increased odds of up rather than down.
I'm betting more on up than down here, but sure, with capital on stand by I'm certainly not 100% long, as I usually am in fairness. The whole structure just all seems a bit "iffy" to me, not much else. I never had this feeling in Bitcoin before, even when it dropped to $15.5K, sure I thought that it could reach $12K by the end of the year, but otherwise the whole idea of a down year, a recovery year, a consolidation year and an up year was all very much in tact, despite the price changes. It's simply the current price vs time that I'm not convinced by, not much else, not any bearish signs in the market that's for sure.
Since understanding Bitcoin in 2017, the whole 4-year cycle gave me a lot of faith, as it was something that could be trusted and relied upon, especially given the reasoning for it's existence ie the halving. Sure, it wouldn't tell you where the top or bottom was, and that was never the point of it either, but it would be able to tell you whether you're in a bear year or a bull year for example. My summary is, that I think we are still in a consolidation year - until this is no longer the case - and that means some sideways action at minimum, or otherwise a correction in order to build momentum for 2025. Similar to 2020 basically, minus the crash.
The main issue I have is that we've passed the point of no return based on historical data, and that a macro top is coming soon enough (long before 2025), one that leads to a year-long bear market. This I don't believe, not with the halving this year etc, therefore I don't think we'll have a multi-year bull market if we are close to creating a macro top already, which I agree would be north of $100K. If we do, then so be it, the Bitcoin cycle is destroyed and it all becomes unpredictable, leaving only holding left as a reasonable strategy, at least until more data and price action becomes available.
I agree that we might have a crazy couple of years, but I still get the sense of going up for the next 18 months or so... and yeah, there could be various places to reassess along the way, and yeah, you could be correct that the top plays out more quickly than expected. Seems like a big so what to me. I am not changing very much that I do based on if the top might end up in 2024 versus 2025.
This is simply where we differ then; I don't believe price is likely to go up for another 18 months. It'd be great if it did, but given the year-long rally that has already occurred, that'd be a total of 2.5 year bull trend, which I don't find very realistic right now. Of course anything is possible, I'm not against speculating that this is possible either, but simply that I'm struggling to find the evidence of why this would happen.
The main thing for me is that I expect the 200-WMA to continue to move up and yeah, maybe every 6 months I might need to adjust what I had placed in [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591]my entry-fuck you status chart[/url] to be more or less conservative than the numbers that I had already placed therein. I already have to adjust the short term to be less conservative.
Sure, this is partially when I think a low level of support would be more likely around $35K if a correction occurs, because already it's going to be there in a couple of months now, and I don't think price would drop in half much sooner than that if it were to do so. It's also likely to be above $40K by the end of the year, which ironically last year was my target for a post-halving consolidation price, so that remains unchanged for now.
I am prepared for either direction, and I hardly give any shits about either direction, especially since this UPpity is a bit premature.
Yeh, this is kind of the point I'm trying to make. If it's premature for a full blown bull market, then it's likely something else will plug that time gap in the meantime.
Premature does not mean that the buy support is not going to keep up with the premature upward movements in price. I have no clue, but it seems that there is more than enough current buy pressure that likely needs to cause the price to 2x or 3x from here in order to get into a more sustainable place.
In all honestly, I'm willing to come around to these ideas a lot more after the halving, once enough miners switch off and the network corrects. If price doesn't correct or consolidate alongside the correction of hash rate, then sure, 2-3x becomes an easy milestone, and the initial effects of the halving would be unlikely to negatively effect price, whether that be by decline or more "stalling" the price, like in 2020.
At the moment, I don't see any reason that there won't be the usual significant decline in hash rate, based on current metrics and historic data, and while I've never been someone to suggest shorting the price based on this correction (I know I won't be), I'm still aware that it leads to a correction/consolidation, as I've stated many times I'm pretty sure. So my opinion will likely change post-halving as well.
Bitcoin does not tend to do fake out highs after 2 years of consolidation.. but yeah, sure anything can happen.
This is a fair argument we can both agree on. It never has in fact, even if it remains possible.
(Baring in mind until 2021, Bitcoin had never had a fake-out ATH either, until it did...)If are trying to carve out a potential bet then we probably would bet on the correction that you are expecting rather than if there is going to be a top or when the top is going to be and then the correction from the supposed top.. I don't know.. There could be something bettable if you are saying that the BTC price will go below $30k in the next year... that would probably be bettable.
I said $30K from $48K, I quite clearly said around $35K as a low level of support from $70K (simply as this is -50%). Spoiler alert, I'll likely say $40K as support from $80K
So you are saying that if the price goes up to $100k before the halvening or some other specific time that you consider to be too soon, then we will get a 50% correction from that and then get stuck in some kind of range for a year or for the rest of 2024? Seems like a lot of legs to that kind of potential bet... we probably would need to narrow it down to numbers (rather than percentages) if we were going to make it bettable from my perspective.
I generally think 2024 will be a consolidation of price between the move from $15.5K and X, whereby X is based on the high of 2024, that is currently at $70K, but could be $80K, $100K, etc. So that means some sort of -50% from X, which from my perspective isn't possible to bet on, because there is the unknown variable of X. If price were to get rejected from here, and break below $50K, then sure, I'd be more willing to consider some bet about testing $35K before the end of the year. But until then, there isn't anything for me to bet on. Maybe you were under the impression I was short because I took profits, but simply I'm neutral by maintaining a hodl position and removing a mid-term trade that achieved the anticipated target
(the fact it exceeded the target becomes irrelevant here, for what I consider to be obvious reasons).Often the best bet to have is NO BET, which is more of less my current situation you could argue based on recent positioning, even though I'm approximately 60% long you could say, but this is based on a hodl position from 2018-2020 that I quite frankly don't consider as a position nor trade, so is somewhat irrelevant. Being in cash is a no bet scenario, not long nor short.
But otherwise, if you're willing to consider a bet based on X (being an ATH of 2024) and X/2 being the price target, then I'd actually consider it. Obviously these aren't specific numbers right now, but by the end of 2024 they will be...
Oh gawd.. you want me to look it up? It was wen you were going on about your having had sold on the way up around $40k and blah blah blah.. about our being on the way down and guys will have to decide whether to sell on the way down... blah blah blah.. You might not have had specifically told guys to sell, but close enough in my interpretation of what you were going on about.
Yes please! If that's the interpretation I gave, then I'd like to avoid others making the mistake of interpreting my words like that again. Even if it involves a boring disclaimer for noobs.
Especially the idea of selling on the way down, that doesn't sound like me at all. Probably the idea that others would likely sell on the way down, sure, but not suggesting others do...
In summary: I didn't tell others to sell then, that was just your interpretation, which already seems wildly out of touch with the reality of what I said to be frank with you.
I'll leave it to the speculators to assign random % chances to certain price targets, as if the percentages are meaningful rather than plucked out of a degen hat
Again, if you had been suggesting the price to go down, then I would imagine that you are assigning a greater than 50% odds to that. unless you specify otherwise... so sometimes you don't have to assign an exact number to have some number that is implied from words.. including when sometimes (or frequently) guys speak in terms of absolutes, which surely have percentage ramifications merely through words.
Again, this comes down to assumption. If I believe X is likely/possible, the correlation isn't always that I am weighted or positioned for X. I don't feel the need to regurgitate everyone else saying that Bitcoin will reach $100K before halving, or $200K this year. Mainly, because these are concepts/theories that I believe are obvious, whereas, maybe the idea of that not happening isn't so obvious... clearly.
Generally I find there is more valuable in information that is a minority opinion, and thus under-represented, rather than the dominant opinion, which is widely available.
I think that you usually have pretty good analysis, but you also seem to go a little nutso sometimes, which seems to be your current state.. .. from my perspective... hahahaha
I also did last year being an uber-bull and banging on about a recovery to $48K, so wouldn't be the first time!
Price says it wants to continue to go to the upside, the cycle says we should be consolidating. We can't do both very easily here, and for now, I still say the cycles exists until they are broken.
I am saying upside based on current dynamics... but does not mean that I am giving up on the cycle either because going up does not seem to break with the cycle, from my perspective.
This would again be where we differ in opinion, even though I do see an argument for that. Especially if 2025 was still a bull year and 2026 a bear year for example.
Either way, it should all start to become clearer after the halving, if not before with a considerably higher ATH, that would likely be a defining moment.
we already had a higher ATH.
I said
considerably, so probably something >$75K, although this would still be quite conservative if you look at $69K being a fake-out of $64K.
It's about eliminating all possibilities, in this case, a fake-out high, that sure has never happened after 2 years of an ATH, but obvious could....
I've always been a long-term investor, much more of a hodler than you since 2018 as documented! The difference is I'm willing/able to separate a hodl position from a mid-term trade,
Maybe I read you wrong? You always seemed more of a trader than this here cat... from my perspective.
Probably because I spend more time trading than I do hodling, as the latter literally involves no effort? It doesn't involve selling 5% here and buying back 5% there. It's more or less an emergency stash I've only ever had to dip into once in 2021 for about 1%. If I were to document my hodling, there wouldn't be much of a story, it would be a topic based on "I'm hodling" with a single update of "sold 1%" in 2021.
I think I've tried to explain this to you before: I don't bother explaining my HODL strategy, it should be self explanatory. It's called HODLING, there is literally nothing else to elaborate on.
I tend to call mine maintenance... so once we get through accumulation, the next phase is maintenance, and then after that liquidation.. but there might not really be a need to get to liquidation because maintenance may well be sufficient to cover liquidation at whatever level is necessary.
For me this is what I'll do with my trading account; basic maintenance. Making sure the weight of my investments are adequate, although involves a lot more shitcoin profit taking (usually 50% every 2x) and otherwise full blown liquidations towards the end of the bull year. This is exactly what a trading account is for, which is the opposite of HODL account - as the idea of the latter is DO NOTHING, HODL.
There are no charts worth referencing, and it's certainly not about selling 5% when price doubles and buying back when/if price corrects, I'll leave that to the traders such as yourself.
I don't consider myself a trader. I offset risk.
That's literally what some of the best traders say
Because even if you try and deny that you trade your stash, which personally I think is insane, but that's your choice, then this is exactly what you are doing.
that's how I frame it, and I am not going to stop.
Feel free to call yourself an investor, even if you trade, I'm really not that bothered. But hodlers don't sell, clues in the name. At least a hodl position is never sold, trading/investor accounts are obviously different, as requires balancing with broader portfolios and the like. That's a completely different ball park in my opinion. Hence my hodl and trading accounts are completely separate. Probably as well if you're not willing to lose the value of your hodl, it also shouldn't be a hodl (because you won't hodl to 0 like you should), so naturally this should be balanced accordingly to only hodl what you feel comfortable with or able to.
As crazy as it might sound, I have more than one strategy though and always have, and these days it includes maybe a long-trade once every 2-4 years, as well as speculating on altcoins in order to increase sats once every 4 years. Because otherwise my strategy of "do nothing" would be somewhat boring and incomplete to put it simply, especially when there are ways to accumulate more Bitcoin without investing your own money as it were, but using profit instead.
If I had not offset the risk by implementing my system (selling on the way up and buying on the way down), there would have likely been no way that I would have been able to hold as many BTC as I have held because I would have gotten nervous from the volatility, so my strategy is to take advantage of the volatility in order that it does not have an effect on me as much as it would if I employed a more pure HODL strategy.
This makes sense, and why I think managing an investor account completely separate from a HODL makes a lot of sense. The former you can actively manage, as you should with investments, the latter you literally hold on for dear life, nothing else. Maybe you end up retiring from it, but more realistically someone inherits it (because you held on for your entire life: you win). Just food for thought, you do you.
Your hodl could literally only be 1-5% of your entire stash, as is the going recommendation for a Bitcoin allocation to hodl. But not having a hodl allocation just seems very bizarre to me. I understand that the assumption is you will always have 1-5% left, even with actively managing an investment account, but even this risk isn't worth considering or even necessary in my opinion, for various reasons. For example ideally your hodl is in deep cold storage, not an "active" cold storage which you access, and therefore has every potential to becomes a risk. A piece of paper in a vault you own is ideal in my opinion.
I'm not even trying to convince you to have a hodl position, I just think it's strange you don't have one, and more relevantly, would be easy to implement by the sound of it.
If I was a degen trader, I'd be trying to catch every pump and every move, taking profits when price simply increases *cough cough *. Sure I used to trade a lot more in the past, but generally I've found that the less trades you make, based on higher capital and lowest risk possible, is just as profitable without all the effort. You can basically save a lot of time and effort with this low-frequency strategy, rather than a higher-frequency strategy, probably why I also haven't been on the forums as much either for that matter.
I don't change my behavior based on anticipating price direction, so in that sense the price comes to me and I don't go to the price or try to predict it in terms of my system. I would not call it high frequency, but just playing swings, with any sales there is no expectation to buy back.. but if buy backs end up happening, then so be it.. make lemonade out of lemons.
You talking "playing swings" in the market, but you're not a trader? OK then...
Poll
