Not too long of a reply today
The red bit is almost exciting.That is one way of trying to hone in on the potentially interesting parts. I am going to try to not respond to the non-controversial parts, even though I see that there are several areas that you seem to be provoking... let's see if I can refrain if it seems to be just getting repetitive.
It is not completely speculation as in a guessing game
Speculation isn't a guessing game, it's based on theories without proper evidence to back it up.
Hence: when a theory is untested, it's speculation, as simple as that (whether accurate or not).
You see? I cannot help it to roll my eyes with your wannabe lecturing..
I am not quite sure what you mean by believe/denial stage.
I was thinking of
this chart as a representation of that.
That does not really help for me, since I find it patronizing to be describing how others are supposedly feeling in those general ways, and I surely don't set any of my positions based on sentiment, especially since I set my orders both on the buy side and on the sell side based mostly on my expectation that I don't really have any clue which way the price is going to go, except for assuming that it overall it is going up, even though it will go up and down in the short term, so if I set my orders in that kind of way, then I can keep my own holdings mostly balanced betwen how much cash I have and how much bitcoin I have.
I am just saying what I think will happen. You already bet on down and then you seem to be investing more than warranted into that. I don't tend to get so attached to short term price moves... I just get a bit of an inclination that the odds of going up in no man's land becomes closer to 60/40 rather than 50/50.. and so it might not even be a great difference in the odds, so I hardly even change anything that I tend to normally do, even though I might talk about the ideas of less resistance when in noman's land, even though there could be a lot of battles and even a lot of rapid movement due to inability to keep BTC on the order books... but still does not mean that the trend is anything other than UPpity.. .. with slightly increased odds of up rather than down.
I'm betting more on up than down here, but sure, with capital on stand by I'm certainly not 100% long, as I usually am in fairness.
But who is ever going to be completely 100% long? and maybe I am quibbling with you a bit over semantics... especially when I look at my own situation, and it seems like I mostly gravitate around 96% to 99.5% in bitcoin in terms of the portion of my funds that are allocated to bitcoin.. and in mid-to-late 2022 when the cash that I had that was allocated to bitcoin was nearly empty, I added more cash in there from other supposedly non-bitcoin related funds, so I would not run out of cash allocated to bitcoin in order to keep buy orders open and then moving my buy orders down, and at that time, I had buy orders that sooner or later ended up going down to right around $12.5k... so some of that money had been previously not allocated to bitcoin, and probably it was drawn back out at some point after the BTC recovered mostly back into the upper $20ks and maybe into the $30ks - because it was ONLY recently that I removed all of my outstanding BTC buy orders between $12.5k and $19k-ish
Like I mentioned before currently I have buy orders that go down to $20k, so that money would add up to whatever I have in cash that is allocated to bitcoin and I might have some other cash that I could throw into the mix if for some reason the BTC price corrects below the amount that I have cash available (like I did in mid-to-late 2022).. At the same time, sometimes if I might have some extra real life expenses, then I might draw from some of that money that is on the lower end of my buy orders, largely like I did in 2021 when I largely removed my buy orders between $8k and $19k, .. so then this time around, if I draw from the money in the account, then the buy orders between $20k and $21k disappear.
I just did a quick look at my numbers, and it looks like within my bitcoin (crypto) allocated funds, I have right around 2% in cash (that would be those buy orders on the way down to $20k), and about 0.4% in various shitcoins, so that would leave me with about 97.6% in bitcoin, and yeah, I don't know why my bitcoin percentage seems to continue to stay so high because I am always selling on the way up, and so if the BTC price does not correct back down, then I don't end up buying back. .and part of what I am thinking is that I am probably selling way too little, but I still feel like I have way too much cash, so it is not really a bad problem to have and has been going on at least since 2021, but surely did not feel as pointed in 2022 and even most of the way through 2023 since the extra money had potential to be used for the outstanding buy orders that had chances of being filled... ..so probably I should not even be feeling that overly cash burdened because it already seems quite likely that my problem is ONLY going to get worse since the BTC price is going to continue to go up and I am going to continue to sell. and still the value of my BTC is going up around 95% more than than the amount of cash that I am pulling out (if we continue to go with the around 5% withdrawn for every doubling).
Anyhow, my point is that it is never 100% or zero, there is a kind of balancing that is going on that gives few shits about which way the BTC price is going, because another thing that is going on is that if I ever need any extra cash, and I don't want to draw from the cash that is already there, then I can easily sell some extra BTC at any time because if I also go with my proclamation that my average cost per BTC is around $1k, then what difference does it make if I end up selling some extra at 69x profits or 40x profits or 128x profits? It does not make a lot of difference, probably because the same ongoing problem exists in regards to my ongoing not spending enough.
The whole structure just all seems a bit "iffy" to me, not much else. I never had this feeling in Bitcoin before, even when it dropped to $15.5K, sure I thought that it could reach $12K by the end of the year, but otherwise the whole idea of a down year, a recovery year, a consolidation year and an up year was all very much in tact, despite the price changes. It's simply the current price vs time that I'm not convinced by, not much else, not any bearish signs in the market that's for sure.
Well I had been giving some further thoughts to your seemingly skepticism of the bullishness of the various ETF players, and surely I am not opposed to ideas about their shenanigans to potentially manipulate the market if they were able to get away with it without getting caught, and so those kinds of ideas make sense in terms of having some concerns about whether the UPward BTC price moves are organic rather than some kind of a potential trick.. yet on the other hand, if you are getting caught up in some kind of technical mumbo jumbo that the timing is not exactly correct, then it seems to me that you are getting overly technical, I mean if that could even be a genuine position and you are just not trying to be somewhat subtle bear troll... a bear troll wannabe... an aspiring bear troll sorcerer .. which ultimately then would boil down to some kind of a similar thing as a FUD spreader, since nobody could really believe that kind of nonsense of strict cycle conformity.. as if king daddy gives any shits about having to stay within the confines of some kind of a strict cycle...
Since understanding Bitcoin in 2017, the whole 4-year cycle gave me a lot of faith, as it was something that could be trusted and relied upon,
Stop it with the sentimental nonsense that adds up to bullshit. Yeah, bitcoin has tended to follow a 4-year cycle, but there is also a decent amount of variation within the cycle including overshoots and undershoots, and sure after it all plays out then it all makes sense, but when we are going through it, there can be deviations from some of the seemingly strict parameters.. and another thing bitcoin barely has 4 of these 4 cycles and we are in the middle of the fourth one. depending on any of us might suggest that they start and end, and that would also be a bit of a myth..
When I got into bitcoin in late 2013, there were already folks proclaiming that bitcoin had already had like 4 previous Gartner hype cycles, but they just did not fall into a four year pattern, but guys were still swearing that there had been four earlier ones, and you could even see them on the charts.. and now, it is a BIG so fucking what, because now we are calling them 4 year cycles, and yeah, I agree that they are 4-year cycles until they are not, but you should not be getting your panties all in a nit because you are expecting some kind of conformity including the current dumb-ass shit proclamations that bitcoin had never previously gone above its previous ATH prior to the halvening, so therefore we either are over heated or we are going to have a left leaning cycle or a cycle that explodes earlier and blah blah blah... sounds like nonsense to me that is trying to either ruin the party or to be a party poop.. which is largely the same thing. You party poop.
especially given the reasoning for it's existence ie the halving. Sure, it wouldn't tell you where the top or bottom was, and that was never the point of it either, but it would be able to tell you whether you're in a bear year or a bull year for example.
Oh gawd.. why would you even say that we are not still in it.
3 ups and 1 down.
we are in the second up. So why are you making such a big deal out of some earlier price movements? and seeming to try to arrive at premature conclusions that probably don't mean anything.. and causing some difficulties believing that you are being genuine in continuing to try to back up your thinking on the matter.
My summary is, that I think we are still in a consolidation year - until this is no longer the case - and that means some sideways action at minimum, or otherwise a correction in order to build momentum for 2025. Similar to 2020 basically, minus the crash.
Ok. Consolidation. Good luck with that.
Yeah we are in 2020, but more like late 2020 as having past the ATH and therefore going UPpity from late 2020 until April-ish of 2021... and then at that point, perhaps we can reassess whether some kind of consolidation might be necessary or not... We are not going to get a whole year of sideways and/or only slightly up... that makes hardly any sense based on actual context of what seems to be happening with actual BTC.. and yeah it is not just about sentiment. Fuck sentiment..You are trying to act as if everyone is overly excited and it is going to come tumbling back down.. yeah right.. good luck with that, too.
Don't get me wrong, I am not suggesting that it is necessarily going to be without a lot of volatility with our seemingly good chance move of going from here into the $120k to $180k range.. so there will probably be quite a few periods of volatility and even fake-outs along the way, and there might even be some tragedies too, such as some scandal or crazy ass legislation and/or various bank failures, maybe even Coinbase or some other BIG exchange with drama and/or scandals. Maybe or maybe not we will have drying up of buy pressure, and surely even some of the ETF buyers right now, might want to panic sell once we start to get into the $120k region or if we correct a lot after reaching various higher levels.. and I have hardly any clue how it is going to end up playing out.. but I am sticking with my system and if it goes up I am continuing to sell within my already established increments and amounts and if it comes back down I will be buying back and let's wee what happens, my position is likely not going to change that much except I will have more cash and maybe a few less bitcoin or maybe I will just continue to have similar number of bitcoin. I don't know.. I have some numbers already plotted out so I doubt that it is going to deviate very much from the numbers that I already have plotted out... even though I will have to update as we go and if it ends up that you are correct and we stay between $40k and $60k that is fine too, but it just seems like a pretty unlikely scenario.. maybe 20% to 40% odds depending on how your might describe the framing of such supposed consolidating prediction that you have.
By the way, you keep repeating that you have advanced out of your degenerate gambling phase, but you are still spouting out seemingly outlandish theories.
The main issue I have is that we've passed the point of no return based on historical data, and that a macro top is coming soon enough (long before 2025), one that leads to a year-long bear market. This I don't believe, not with the halving this year etc, therefore I don't think we'll have a multi-year bull market if we are close to creating a macro top already, which I agree would be north of $100K. If we do, then so be it, the Bitcoin cycle is destroyed and it all becomes unpredictable, leaving only holding left as a reasonable strategy, at least until more data and price action becomes available.
I agree that we might have a crazy couple of years, but I still get the sense of going up for the next 18 months or so... and yeah, there could be various places to reassess along the way, and yeah, you could be correct that the top plays out more quickly than expected. Seems like a big so what to me. I am not changing very much that I do based on if the top might end up in 2024 versus 2025.
This is simply where we differ then; I don't believe price is likely to go up for another 18 months. It'd be great if it did, but given the year-long rally that has already occurred, that'd be a total of 2.5 year bull trend, which I don't find very realistic right now. Of course anything is possible, I'm not against speculating that this is possible either, but simply that I'm struggling to find the evidence of why this would happen.
Because new kinds of buyers are continuing to come in and because bitcoin happens to be the greatest asset ever known to man, if you had not noticed, and it is far from mature. You are trying to treat bitcoin as if it were a mature market, and it is not .. so whatever, good luck with your idea of a premature blow off top and a lack of a rebound and/or lack of a second pump coming later... .Of course, you could end up being right, but I have my doubts.... and you seem to be overly bearish and/or pessimistic and seeming to attribute too much validity to ideas of sentiment while ignoring various pieces of physical evidence.
The main thing for me is that I expect the 200-WMA to continue to move up and yeah, maybe every 6 months I might need to adjust what I had placed in [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591]my entry-fuck you status chart[/url] to be more or less conservative than the numbers that I had already placed therein. I already have to adjust the short term to be less conservative.
Sure, this is partially when I think a low level of support would be more likely around $35K if a correction occurs, because already it's going to be there in a couple of months now, and I don't think price would drop in half much sooner than that if it were to do so. It's also likely to be above $40K by the end of the year, which ironically last year was my target for a post-halving consolidation price, so that remains unchanged for now.
The way that the 200-WMA is currently moving up, it may well be closer to $50k rather than $40k by the end of the year, and even if you recall our correction in the middle of 2021, the price got down to something like $28k, but the 200-WMA was then around $13.5k to $14k.. so even at that point, the BTC spot price corrected down to being at least 100% higher than the then 200-WMA. You can look up some of the specifics, here:
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategySo my point is that the BTC price does not tend to correct all the way down to the 200-WMA, except for the most dire periods of the cycle, and so I am not just going to assume some dire period is going to come, including right now, it is not very likely that even if the BTC price corrects a lot that it will even get within 25% of the 200-WMA.. yeah, I know anything can happen, but there is no reason to presume outrageous outlier kinds of corrections merely because you have a feeling that something is not right. Personally, I prefer to mostly attempt to stick with what is more likely rather than presuming outlandish, even though my actual buy orders are going to remain at least 10% or more below the 200-WMA.. because I hate getting caught without any cash when those outrageous price moves come at unexpected times, so even though financially and psychologically I am prepared for the outrageous to happen, I don't build some kind of base case about those ideas and go spouting off on the inter-webs how the sky might fall, even though it looks solidly blue and cheery.
I am prepared for either direction, and I hardly give any shits about either direction, especially since this UPpity is a bit premature.
Yeh, this is kind of the point I'm trying to make. If it's premature for a full blown bull market, then it's likely something else will plug that time gap in the meantime.
Premature does not mean that the buy support is not going to keep up with the premature upward movements in price. I have no clue, but it seems that there is more than enough current buy pressure that likely needs to cause the price to 2x or 3x from here in order to get into a more sustainable place.
In all honestly, I'm willing to come around to these ideas a lot more after the halving, once enough miners switch off and the network corrects.
Not as many miners will have to switch off as you are conjecturing if the BTC price doubles and/or triples again from here, especially since the BTC price already largely doubled since October anyhow... So, yeah miners have their varying costs and they also have the contention of the ongoing and mostly increases in the difficulty levels, too.
If price doesn't correct or consolidate alongside the correction of hash rate, then sure, 2-3x becomes an easy milestone, and the initial effects of the halving would be unlikely to negatively effect price, whether that be by decline or more "stalling" the price, like in 2020.
Well the temporary crashening of the BTC price in 2020 took place nearly 2 months prior to the halvening, and so by the time the halvening arrived in May, the BTC price had mostly recovered to where it was at before the March 2020 crashening.
At the moment, I don't see any reason that there won't be the usual significant decline in hash rate, based on current metrics and historic data, and while I've never been someone to suggest shorting the price based on this correction (I know I won't be), I'm still aware that it leads to a correction/consolidation, as I've stated many times I'm pretty sure. So my opinion will likely change post-halving as well.
Fuck that dumbass theory. Hashrate does not lead price. Even though there is a bit of a symbiotic relationship, for the most part hashrate and/or mining follows price, so the price gives less than two shits whether the miners are profitable or not, and the miners on an individual level have to figure out if they are going to mine or not or cause their operations to be more efficient and/or various decisions based on their perception of their costs, their operational set up, current BTC prices, expectations of future BTC prices and perhaps some additional factors.. yet the price gives no shits about whether miners are profitable or not or if they are coming into the space and/or leaving the space. The difficulty will adjust downward if they leave and upward if they continue to pump out hash power.
Yeah, I know about the China bans mining situation in 2021 and the fall out history from that. None of that supports a theory that mining hashpower leads price, even though there surely was a lot of drama in 2021 around that and even speculation about whether China might be attempting some kind of attack... so yeah, we love various kinds of drama in bitcoinlandia. Every cycle has various examples of drama and some of the drama pulls the price in one direction or another and maybe these are aberrations or they can be expected to happen again, yet without knowing on what scale or in what direction.. such as if the USA were to attempt a wide-spread attack on miners. .which yes it could happen, but it might not, too. .so from my perspective, there is no reason to get all doomy and gloomy about the BTC future price based on something that may or may not happen and may or may not be enough to overwhelm (or off-set) other things that might be happening at the same time... and yes, frequently weak-handers are shaken from their coins by the various drama and even assertions that bitcoin is "really dead" this time that is not likely to stop.. we are still in a war through bitcoin's whole history, and the battles are different from what they were in 2017 and in 2021, yet those guys who got scared out of their coins may well have ended up screwing themselves during some of these contradictory, ambiguous and crazy times.. which yes are going to happen again, but just in some different form that may or may not resemble some of the past battles...
Bitcoin does not tend to do fake out highs after 2 years of consolidation.. but yeah, sure anything can happen.
This is a fair argument we can both agree on. It never has in fact, even if it remains possible.
(Baring in mind until 2021, Bitcoin had never had a fake-out ATH either, until it did...) This is your way of saying that we mostly agree on this point. Fine. Whatever. Makes me feel ting-el-leees.
If are trying to carve out a potential bet then we probably would bet on the correction that you are expecting rather than if there is going to be a top or when the top is going to be and then the correction from the supposed top.. I don't know.. There could be something bettable if you are saying that the BTC price will go below $30k in the next year... that would probably be bettable.
I said $30K from $48K, I quite clearly said around $35K as a low level of support from $70K (simply as this is -50%). Spoiler alert, I'll likely say $40K as support from $80K
No problem.. just keep moving upwards with your target. that seems like a good idea. Sooner or later you will end up being correct.. probably by the time that you say that we are going to get $80k from $160k, then you will end up being correct.
So you are saying that if the price goes up to $100k before the halvening or some other specific time that you consider to be too soon, then we will get a 50% correction from that and then get stuck in some kind of range for a year or for the rest of 2024? Seems like a lot of legs to that kind of potential bet... we probably would need to narrow it down to numbers (rather than percentages) if we were going to make it bettable from my perspective.
I generally think 2024 will be a consolidation of price between the move from $15.5K and X, whereby X is based on the high of 2024, that is currently at $70K, but could be $80K, $100K, etc. So that means some sort of -50% from X, which from my perspective isn't possible to bet on, because there is the unknown variable of X. If price were to get rejected from here, and break below $50K, then sure, I'd be more willing to consider some bet about testing $35K before the end of the year. But until then, there isn't anything for me to bet on. Maybe you were under the impression I was short because I took profits, but simply I'm neutral by maintaining a hodl position and removing a mid-term trade that achieved the anticipated target
(the fact it exceeded the target becomes irrelevant here, for what I consider to be obvious reasons).I consider that some of the things that you say are a bit outrageous, but yeah, if I cannot get you to put your money behind one of those assertions, we might not quite be in bettable territories... not that I am inclined to bet, either. I only prefer to bet when I start to conclude what you are saying is a bit outrageous, which if you want to bet on my assertion that sub $40k will not be ever reached again, I might be willing to take that kind of a bet, but I know that a 50% correction could happen at any time, but usually it is more likely once we have had a bit of a run upwards, and I am not even thinking that it is too likely from $80k, $90k or $100k, but it might not be so unlikely that I would call it bettable.. I mean if I might consider it is ONLY 30% to 40%, but you might consider it to be 70% in the other direction, then we might be able to consider odds on it rather than a 1 to 1 bet... but we would need to have some numbers.... .. the first 50% correction that I see having greater than 50% odds would be $160k; however, on the other hand, sometimes if we go up too far too fast, then there could be a time in which a 50% correction could come prior to $160k.. but from my perspective we are still not in the territory of moving up too fast, and maybe if we go up to $100k within a week or two, then yeah, maybe it would be eligible for a 50% correction based on how quickly it were to go up, so I am not against your overall idea of a 50% correction being possible at some point, but I doubt that if we went to $80k in the next week or two that would be enough of a too much too soon kind of a price movement.
In other words, I am having trouble seeing anything bettable in these general propositions...even though you seem to already be assessing that a 50% could happen any time right now, which seems to suggest that you are already concluding that we are moving up too fast right now.
As I already mentioned, I might be willing to bet that any correction in the coming year will not go to a point that it is less than 20% from the 200-WMA... but that still might be a bit of a difficult one to measure exactly, but I would not be planning to bet very much anyhow.. maybe 0.001 BTC or something like that... and maybe using the lightning network for our escrow.. .if we were to need escrow.. I am not sure. .I probably would not necessarily need escrow with you, as compared to some other members who seem less trustworthy in terms of their seeming shiftiness. Even though I find you annoying sometimes, and I am even starting to suspect if you are genuine in some of your arguments, I am not necessarily committed to the idea of an escrow of a bet of that size.. even though an escrow could be a fairly straight-forward thing, except if something were to happen to the person escrowing..
Often the best bet to have is NO BET, which is more of less my current situation you could argue based on recent positioning, even though I'm approximately 60% long you could say, but this is based on a hodl position from 2018-2020 that I quite frankly don't consider as a position nor trade, so is somewhat irrelevant. Being in cash is a no bet scenario, not long nor short. But otherwise, if you're willing to consider a bet based on X (being an ATH of 2024) and X/2 being the price target, then I'd actually consider it. Obviously these aren't specific numbers right now, but by the end of 2024 they will be...
I would rather work with specific numbers, and I kind of dislike the idea of two legs needing to play out. So for example if you say that any high point in 2024, the BTC price will correct 50% from that and you will be able to set your orders, but also win a bet from me. I don't really like it since I agree with the idea that 50%s can happen any time when the price moves up to quick, so I am having trouble really putting my finger on this. But I would be willing to bet that sub $40k will never be reached again (at least not in 2024) or alternatively that the BTC price will not get below 20% of the 200-WMA in 2024.
I might be willing to bet you that the high BTC price in 2025 will be higher than the high BTC price of 2024.. that might be something that is bettable, but it would not resolve until January 1, 2025 at the earliest or December 31, 2025 at the latest.
Oh gawd.. you want me to look it up? It was wen you were going on about your having had sold on the way up around $40k and blah blah blah.. about our being on the way down and guys will have to decide whether to sell on the way down... blah blah blah.. You might not have had specifically told guys to sell, but close enough in my interpretation of what you were going on about.
Yes please! If that's the interpretation I gave, then I'd like to avoid others making the mistake of interpreting my words like that again. Even if it involves a boring disclaimer for noobs.
You are making me do work.. let me see if I can find it.. Ok.. here it is.. I think I found it..
PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either, I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever). If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type, I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.
I am pretty sure that it was this above PS paragraph coupled with the rest of your post in which I was triggered by such seeming bearishness in these here seemingly bullish times, and in that regard, I thought that it was something like this paragraph, about the upside and the downside.. but now that I read it again, it is seeming that my paraphrasing you from memory was not quite what you seem too had been saying.. especially if this was the original phraseology that I had read.. ... and maybe I was reading into your PS based on the whole context of your post in terms of my thinking that you were being way too bullish and trying to convince us that we might need to sell some cornz to protect our lil selfies.. but now that I read it again (and maybe in light of our further discussion of your ideas) it appears that might not have been what you were saying exactly (except maybe through subliminal messages that I had felt from the whole negative nancy thing).. so I am not sure what had triggered me, exactly. .Maybe I was just in a bad mood and I was thinking that you were trying to coax us (myself and the rest of the guys in these here parts) into selling our cornz in order to support your claim of an imminent 50% correction.
Especially the idea of selling on the way down, that doesn't sound like me at all. Probably the idea that others would likely sell on the way down, sure, but not suggesting others do...
You might be correct. I might have overstated the case.
In summary: I didn't tell others to sell then, that was just your interpretation, which already seems wildly out of touch with the reality of what I said to be frank with you.
It is possible. Does anyone, including yours truly, welcome the prognostication of a 50% correction during times like this when we are having so much fun, and also I was thinking about your post in the context of your earlier comments that we were going down to the lower $30ks and we had already gotten a 21% correction down to $38.5k, which seems like it should have been good enough for you to claim victory, instead you were claiming more. . and so when you came back to the thread and you were continuing to call for a 50% correction, it just continues to seem nutso to me... so yeah, I might have read more into your assertion than what you had intended to communicate.
This could all be
my way of saying sorry.
I'll leave it to the speculators to assign random % chances to certain price targets, as if the percentages are meaningful rather than plucked out of a degen hat
Again, if you had been suggesting the price to go down, then I would imagine that you are assigning a greater than 50% odds to that. unless you specify otherwise... so sometimes you don't have to assign an exact number to have some number that is implied from words.. including when sometimes (or frequently) guys speak in terms of absolutes, which surely have percentage ramifications merely through words.
Again, this comes down to assumption. If I believe X is likely/possible, the correlation isn't always that I am weighted or positioned for X. I don't feel the need to regurgitate everyone else saying that Bitcoin will reach $100K before halving, or $200K this year. Mainly, because these are concepts/theories that I believe are obvious, whereas, maybe the idea of that not happening isn't so obvious... clearly.
Generally I find there is more valuable in information that is a minority opinion, and thus under-represented, rather than the dominant opinion, which is widely available.
If you want to go against the dominant opinion, then no problem, but still merely going against it might not lead to accurate results if you don't really have much basis for going against it. You have largely given your basis, so no need to rehash all of that.
I think that you usually have pretty good analysis, but you also seem to go a little nutso sometimes, which seems to be your current state.. .. from my perspective... hahahaha
I also did last year being an uber-bull and banging on about a recovery to $48K, so wouldn't be the first time!
Yes, we can agree on the comment that you are great... except when not.
Price says it wants to continue to go to the upside, the cycle says we should be consolidating. We can't do both very easily here, and for now, I still say the cycles exists until they are broken.
I am saying upside based on current dynamics... but does not mean that I am giving up on the cycle either because going up does not seem to break with the cycle, from my perspective.
This would again be where we differ in opinion, even though I do see an argument for that. Especially if 2025 was still a bull year and 2026 a bear year for example.
I would not want to bet that far out, but I might be willing to bet that 2025 will have a higher high than 2024..which surely is speculation that is hard to really know, especially since 2024 still has about 8.5 months left in it.
Either way, it should all start to become clearer after the halving, if not before with a considerably higher ATH, that would likely be a defining moment.
we already had a higher ATH.
I said
considerably, so probably something >$75K, although this would still be quite conservative if you look at $69K being a fake-out of $64K.
I consider our current highs to be considerable. We have two days of weighted volume that are higher than ever before in bitcoin's history.. two full days, so far. From my perspective, that is nothing to sneeze at.
Look at this:
Rank BitStamp USD/BTC
1 2024-03-09 68393 USD
2 2024-03-08 68221 USD
3 2021-11-09 67483 USD
4 2024-03-07 67191 USD
5 2024-03-06 66315 USD
6 2021-11-10 66256 USD
7 2024-03-04 65970 USD
8 2021-11-08 65762 USD
9 2021-10-20 65702 USD
10 2021-11-15 65064 USD
11 2024-03-05 65034 USD
12 2021-11-11 64931 USD
13 2021-10-21 64502 USD
14 2021-11-14 64456 USD
15 2021-11-13 64113 USD
16 2021-11-12 63900 USD
17 2021-04-14 63315 USD
18 2021-10-19 63168 USD
19 2021-04-15 62949 USD
20 2021-10-25 62745 USD
21 2021-11-03 62608 USD
22 2024-03-03 62489 USD
23 2021-11-02 62447 USD
24 2021-11-07 62216 USD
25 2021-04-13 62143 USD
26 2024-02-29 62117 USD
27 2024-03-01 62097 USD
28 2021-10-22 62069 USD
29 2024-03-02 62027 USD
30 2021-10-26 61895 USD
* * Chart Explanation * *
And the underlying data (the raw data), as I type this message is even higher ($69,115) than it was for March 9th, even though we are ONLY 6 hours into the data for March 10th as I type this post, so surely a price reversal could drag the number down out of the top place.
I find it kind of funny that guys do not want to recognize how bullish BTC's price performance of the last weeks have been, including several days of close to ATHs in weighted averages.
It's about eliminating all possibilities, in this case, a fake-out high, that sure has never happened after 2 years of an ATH, but obvious could....
That is bullshit. Yes.. it could happen, but we do not argue our base case based on pie in the sky bullshit that "could" happen. So what?
I've always been a long-term investor, much more of a hodler than you since 2018 as documented! The difference is I'm willing/able to separate a hodl position from a mid-term trade,
Maybe I read you wrong? You always seemed more of a trader than this here cat... from my perspective.
Probably because I spend more time trading than I do hodling, as the latter literally involves no effort? It doesn't involve selling 5% here and buying back 5% there. It's more or less an emergency stash I've only ever had to dip into once in 2021 for about 1%. If I were to document my hodling, there wouldn't be much of a story, it would be a topic based on "I'm hodling" with a single update of "sold 1%" in 2021.
It seems that I mostly talk about HODLing, and various ways that guys can (or should try to) accumulate BTC, and I also assert that they get to a point of over-accumulation prior to selling any BTC. Of course, there is spend and replace, too.. and sure once anyone gets to a point of over accumulation, like I did in 2015, then they can change their strategy to maintenance which is not the same as trading since there is no price prediction involved, but it is a kind of raking.. which we have already beaten that horse to death, no?
I think I've tried to explain this to you before: I don't bother explaining my HODL strategy, it should be self explanatory. It's called HODLING, there is literally nothing else to elaborate on.
I tend to call mine maintenance... so once we get through accumulation, the next phase is maintenance, and then after that liquidation.. but there might not really be a need to get to liquidation because maintenance may well be sufficient to cover liquidation at whatever level is necessary.
For me this is what I'll do with my trading account; basic maintenance.
You are trying to predict price moves. I don't do that in terms of my portfolio maintenance.
Making sure the weight of my investments are adequate, although involves a lot more shitcoin profit taking (usually 50% every 2x) and otherwise full blown liquidations towards the end of the bull year. This is exactly what a trading account is for, which is the opposite of HODL account - as the idea of the latter is DO NOTHING, HODL.
Fuck shitcoins...and trading too.. I don't do either of those.
There are no charts worth referencing, and it's certainly not about selling 5% when price doubles and buying back when/if price corrects, I'll leave that to the traders such as yourself.
I don't consider myself a trader. I offset risk.
That's literally what some of the best traders say
Are they trying to steal my language?
Because even if you try and deny that you trade your stash, which personally I think is insane, but that's your choice, then this is exactly what you are doing.
that's how I frame it, and I am not going to stop.
Feel free to call yourself an investor, even if you trade,
I don't trade. I already reached my accumulation level in 2014.. but then I over accumulated in 2015..and so I have been overaccumulated ever since, especially since I ONLY sell small amounts at various points on the way up.. that is called raking profits..and it could also be called buying back if the price falls, but I don't care if it falls or not. I prefer the price to just continue to go up since that is the better way to go for me..
I'm really not that bothered. But hodlers don't sell, clues in the name.
You are quibbling, and probably whatever point you are trying to make is not even as important as you are trying to make it out to be.
At least a hodl position is never sold, trading/investor accounts are obviously different, as requires balancing with broader portfolios and the like. That's a completely different ball park in my opinion.
Seems like we define things differently.
Hence my hodl and trading accounts are completely separate.
I don't see any need to get into this. Do you have any question about what I am doing in terms of the way that I hold coins and how I do my accounting? I am sure that I have touched upon some of this, to the extent that it might be relevant. I am not a trader, but I have accounts on exchanges.. and sometimes I talk about my sell orders that have been continuous since $250... which may well be called raking, as I already provided the link so you would be able to get the idea if you might want to consider something like that.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213921#msg63213921 It is optional whether you would want to use the buy back provisions and/or how to set them.. and you can also plug numbers into the
Google spreadsheet that fillippone created in relation to it. It is not a trading strategy, even though it seems similar to trading, there is little to no price prediction involved. .. but I don't recommend anyone does it until he is sure that he has already overaccumulated BTC.. It is not meant to accumulate more BTC, so you should already be in a position of over-accumulation before beginning to follow such a raking technique.
Probably as well if you're not willing to lose the value of your hodl, it also shouldn't be a hodl (because you won't hodl to 0 like you should), so naturally this should be balanced accordingly to only hodl what you feel comfortable with or able to.
There is no reason to HODL more than you need, but if you haven't gotten enough, then you likely need to HODL while you are in the process of building up your stack until it reaches an overaccumulation status, then you have more options once you reach that overaccumulation status..
As crazy as it might sound, I have more than one strategy though and always have, and these days it includes maybe a long-trade once every 2-4 years, as well as speculating on altcoins in order to increase sats once every 4 years. Because otherwise my strategy of "do nothing" would be somewhat boring and incomplete to put it simply, especially when there are ways to accumulate more Bitcoin without investing your own money as it were, but using profit instead.
If I had not offset the risk by implementing my system (selling on the way up and buying on the way down), there would have likely been no way that I would have been able to hold as many BTC as I have held because I would have gotten nervous from the volatility, so my strategy is to take advantage of the volatility in order that it does not have an effect on me as much as it would if I employed a more pure HODL strategy.
This makes sense, and why I think managing an investor account completely separate from a HODL makes a lot of sense. The former you can actively manage, as you should with investments, the latter you literally hold on for dear life, nothing else.
You are imposing your ideas of HODL and account management, which it just sounds like you have a different way of thinking about matters and framing it and account for what you are doing.
Maybe you end up retiring from it, but more realistically someone inherits it (because you held on for your entire life: you win). Just food for thought, you do you.
I already have a system that I have been using, and it is working quite well... even though I have been doing some experimenting with some other accounts that are falling in the sustainable withdrawal category, which you can look more into my ideas of sustainable withdrawal through
this post.
Your hodl could literally only be 1-5% of your entire stash, as is the going recommendation for a Bitcoin allocation to hodl. But not having a hodl allocation just seems very bizarre to me.
You seem to be presuming. i might have about 4%-ish of the total value of my stash on exchanges, but I have some BTC that are involved in some other ways too... that might be considered as part of the sustainable withdrawal categories. I am still working on various ideas related to the sustainable withdrawal concepts.
I understand that the assumption is you will always have 1-5% left, even with actively managing an investment account, but even this risk isn't worth considering or even necessary in my opinion, for various reasons.
I don't even know what you are talking about. If the price doubles I am authorized to sell up to 10% of my stash, but it seems that my own practice is closer to 5%, and yeah, maybe it is not even that since if I only have less than 4% of the value of my whole stash on all exchanges, but I have sell orders that currently go up to $150k and so that is more than doubling from here.. . so it appears that I am actually selling much less.. so yeah.. sucks to be me, I am selling less perhaps..even though I am authorized to sell more.. so maybe I have to up my selling game...
For example ideally your hodl is in deep cold storage, not an "active" cold storage which you access, and therefore has every potential to becomes a risk. A piece of paper in a vault you own is ideal in my opinion.
you are probably reading too much into my presumptive lack of security from your point of view.
I'm not even trying to convince you to have a hodl position,
I already do, but it is currently supplemented by a raking practice that I have been following since 2015, and it is working quite well..so I am not needing to change anything, except maybe to sell more..
I just think it's strange you don't have one, and more relevantly, would be easy to implement by the sound of it.
Already done. Already implemented since 2015 -ish with little tweaks along the way.
If I was a degen trader, I'd be trying to catch every pump and every move, taking profits when price simply increases *cough cough *. Sure I used to trade a lot more in the past, but generally I've found that the less trades you make, based on higher capital and lowest risk possible, is just as profitable without all the effort. You can basically save a lot of time and effort with this low-frequency strategy, rather than a higher-frequency strategy, probably why I also haven't been on the forums as much either for that matter.
I don't change my behavior based on anticipating price direction, so in that sense the price comes to me and I don't go to the price or try to predict it in terms of my system. I would not call it high frequency, but just playing swings, with any sales there is no expectation to buy back.. but if buy backs end up happening, then so be it.. make lemonade out of lemons.
You talking "playing swings" in the market, but you're not a trader? OK then...
Maybe you are starting to catch on? If so, then great. it might be called raking rather than playing swings.. so maybe I mis-named it, even though I do buy back if the price falls.. so there is that non-trading approach, too.
Poll
