Poor again.
oh well.
Dinner....
It’s over. Seriously though, it’s funny the way human behavior works. I too am sad seeing this drop and it feels like the end of the world. However, it’s important to remember that we just dropped 4 days worth of gains. That’s basically nothing. We’ll see where it goes from here, but I don’t think we’ve come close to the high of this cycle yet.
I calculate it as a 7.1% drop from the top to the bottom (that is $68,555/$73,794.. that maybe took 13-14 hours to play out....
.. yet a so far recovery our recovery 4 hours later is right around 4.15% which would be $71,400-ish/$68,555. Yeah the numbers do not mean the same thing when measured on the way down versus on the way back up. and yeah maybe this recovery is going to be a fake out and we are going to have more droppening.. but still.. wake me up when we get some correction that is either deeper and/or more sustained.. maybe more than 12% would be interesting (or worthy of news) and maybe lasting for a day or so rather than a few hours... that might be helpful to any potential DOWNity thesis.
chartbuddy has 45880 posts
philipma1957 has 44992 posts
grand total of 90872 posts
when honey badger tops us?
March 2024
April 2024
May. 2024
Later then may?
never?
Of course, both of you are going to keep posting, so it is a moving target, so I am thinking May-ish.. but yeah, you never know... we could get a blow off top (meaning a period of temporary overexcuberance) that crosses above such threshold in April.. I have a hard time with it happening this month.. maybe giving it less than 22% odds for this month... but still nothing to sneeze at - up to 22% odds for this month.
As much as I want to predict this I am not jinxing it by predicting it.
I hope it is soon
I mean if we are given five choices, which you have given, then we try to guess the most likely to happen. You have covered all of the possibilities, so maybe we could boil them down to 100% and assign odds to each one. What is wrong with that?
Here's my ballpark off-the-cuff attempt to assign actual probabilities to each of the choices (based on current data and my own thinking about the matter).. .which currently shows May with the highest results.. but what the fuck do I know?
March 2024 - 17%-ish
April 2024 - 24%
May. 2024 - 29.5%
Later then may? 28%
never? 1.5% or less
Total = 100%
Please note that earlier I had assigned 22% odds to March, but now after I filled in the whole spectrum of possibilities, I had to down grade my own assignment of my own March numbers from 22% to 17%-ish, so I filled in the other possibilities for each of the answers to make them add up to 100% in total.. and then also to show how I resulted at May 2024 as the highest probability...
You will also see that my May results are not even greater than 50%, but if you add up all of my numbers for March, April and May, I am probably giving too high of odds because they add up to 70.5%-ish which seems a bit outrageous when I think about if that is even realistic to have that high of a probability assignment to such a thing.. but for now, I am going to stick with those numbers..
I have no problem being wrong and I am now thinking that I might be overly bullish with these actual numbers.. especially since life is full of surprises, yet I am doing my best based on what is in my thinking at this particular moment based on a scenario that you presented that already shows that it contains all of the possibilities so whatever we do, our numbers have to add up to 100%.
Bitcoin is still volatile in both directions...sigh.
Nothing unexpected, though.
Now, in addition to somewhat crooked exchanges and overleveraged retail, we have WS traders on IBIT.
They would probably jerk it up and down 5-10% every day.
From their perspective, 5% down, then 3-7% up beats "boring" 2% down/up.
I am trying to control my emotions by looking only at the BIG picture, which means to ignore daily volatility and check only the weeklies chart, leaving it to @JJG to check on the 200 wma
No need to worry.. bitmover has helped me and helped everyone else who is willing to attempt to help themselves.. including uie-pooie to make it easy with a tool that compares the location of the BTC spot price with the 200-WMA.
Yes, your lil snide remark in regards to the supposed importance of BTC's spot price will not go unnoticed, and if maybe you were to focus a wee bit MOAR better on the 200-WMA, you would be able to use that information as a kind of chill pill.
Remember that almost always dee cornz is filled with volatility (it is one of the closest things to inevitable that we have in bitcoinlandia), and furthermore what else should we expect in the midst of a war that involves that we are in the relatively earliest of stages of the greatest wealth transfer so far known to mankind.
In other words: Get a grip... and calm down.
https://www.reddit.com/r/shittymoviedetails/comments/11gwirl/in_the_film_airplane_1980_theres_a_joke_where_a/hahahahahahaha
we ded?
Maybe this is the correction that dragonvlinux was trying to warn us..?
Poll
