Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

Are we poor AGAIN?  

It sucks to wake up and see that you've lost 10% of your networth overnight, because of some gambling morons. But the real loss is for them,  not for us. It is impossible to have a vertical line up forever And for the last 16 months it was mainly up, very rarely sideways. Meanwhile, going further down into 65s. Oh, well, I guess today we won't see another ATH.  

[tertius993]

Poor again.
oh well.

Dinner....

It’s over. Seriously though, it’s funny the way human behavior works. I too am sad seeing this drop and it feels like the end of the world. However, it’s important to remember that we just dropped 4 days worth of gains. That’s basically nothing. We’ll see where it goes from here, but I don’t think we’ve come close to the high of this cycle yet.

I calculate it as a 7.1% drop from the top to the bottom (that is $68,555/$73,794.. that maybe took 13-14 hours to play out....

.. yet a so far recovery our recovery 4 hours later is right around 4.15% which would be $71,400-ish/$68,555.  Yeah the numbers do not mean the same thing when measured on the way down versus on the way back up. and yeah maybe this recovery is going to be a fake out and we are going to have more droppening.. but still.. wake me up when we get some correction that is either deeper and/or more sustained.. maybe more than 12% would be interesting (or worthy of news) and maybe lasting for a day or so rather than a few hours... that might be helpful to any potential DOWNity thesis.

chartbuddy    has   45880 posts
philipma1957 has   44992 posts

grand total of 90872 posts

when honey badger tops us?

March 2024
April   2024
May.   2024
Later then may?
never?

Of course, both of you are going to keep posting, so it is a moving target, so I am thinking May-ish.. but yeah, you never know... we could get a blow off top (meaning a period of temporary overexcuberance) that crosses above such threshold in April.. I have a hard time with it happening this month.. maybe giving it less than 22% odds for this month... but still nothing to sneeze at - up to 22% odds for this month.

As much as I want to predict this I am not jinxing it by predicting it.

I hope it is soon

I mean if we are given five choices, which you have given, then we try to guess the most likely to happen.  You have covered all of the possibilities, so maybe we could boil them down to 100% and assign odds to each one.  What is wrong with that?

Here's my ballpark off-the-cuff attempt to assign actual probabilities to each of the choices (based on current data and my own thinking about the matter).. .which currently shows May with the highest results.. but what the fuck do I know?

March 2024 - 17%-ish
April   2024 - 24%
May.   2024  - 29.5%
Later then may?  28%
never?  1.5% or less

Total = 100%

Please note that earlier I had assigned 22% odds to March, but now after I filled in the whole spectrum of possibilities, I had to down grade my own assignment of my own March numbers from 22% to 17%-ish, so I filled in the other possibilities for each of the answers to make them add up to 100% in total.. and then also to show how I resulted at May 2024 as the highest probability...

You will also see that my May results are not even greater than 50%, but if you add up all of my numbers for March, April and May, I am probably giving too high of odds because they add up to 70.5%-ish which seems a bit outrageous when I think about if that is even realistic to have that high of a probability assignment to such a thing.. but for now, I am going to stick with those numbers..

I have no problem being wrong and I am now thinking that I might be overly bullish with these actual numbers.. especially since life is full of surprises, yet I am doing my best based on what is in my thinking at this particular moment based on a scenario that you presented that already shows that it contains all of the possibilities so whatever we do, our numbers have to add up to 100%.

I would say exceedingly over-bullish with those numbers ... my guesses would be more like:

March 2024 - 1%
April 2024 - 5%
May 2024 - 10%
Later than May 2024 - 80%
Never - 4%

Obviously the longer it takes the more likely "never" becomes as ChartBuddy and Philip's postings continue to stretch the target ever higher ...

[LoyceV]

Are we poor AGAIN? 

Yep, as poor as last week

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[aesma]

-9.6% from the ATH. Perhaps Binance/Bitfinex longs squeeze? At least I don't see anything suspicious about Coinbase or ETF outflows. But there always will be manipulators in these two exchanges specifically, perhaps related to the 'house'. It has to be someone familiar with all complicated positions/options, etc. It is funny that there will always be plenty of victims who manage to lose big amount of money even in the most stable and long bull run in the history of Bitcoin. Imagine if these billions of fiat lost each day were invested at the price of 15K a year and something ago. That would be 4.5x profit. But the lack of knowledge and wider perspective leads to gambling and always losing.

I wonder who is using leverage on BTC in 2024.

I used to do it and it was exciting, for a few months in a row I had done more than 1 million $ in trades per month. I managed to not lose money, but I didn't earn any either, only the exchange was making money.

Also at the time (2017 I think) I could see my ~1BTC orders move the market so that was exciting, now I doubt that still would do the same.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Yes Yes this is the Bitcoin I know and love. Bring it on  

[BitcoinBunny]

Oh well, it was fun whilst it lasted boys....

I'm phoning Peter Schiff from the esteemed Schiff Gold immediately and asking him which old man boomer rubbish bin I should waste my money on.

[Paashaas]

Pre-halving crash to sub $60k ore even $50k initiated.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Lucius]

Nothing terrible happened, a completely normal correction that will only slightly delay a new ATH. If someone is looking for reasons, these seem logical :

Data from CoinGlass shows that over $100 million in long positions have been wiped out over the last 12 hours, while $167 million in longs have been liquidated over the last 24 hours. Other assets like gold and Wall Street's tech-heavy index Nasdaq have also come under pressure this week.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[criptoevangelista]

[BitcoinBunny]

Come on Saylor, buy another couple of billions worth.

[dragonvslinux]

What the hell is going on with these dumps? An effort by certain forces to keep the price low or just normal selling? Seems kind of orchestrated to me, 2 decent recoveries then smackdowns, I haven't seen that kind of price action for a while. I guess it could just be all the degen future traders. Anyway clearing out the weak hands around the former ATH is probably a good thing.

Pretty sure this is "usual" selling, the momentum has slowed down since $60K/March, around $800m long liquidations in past two days, and now wicked off 20 DMA around $66K, which is basically the first level of real support (and hasn't been testing since late Feb when price bounced off it). Price still looks bullish above $60K, even if there could be concern over a fake-out high at that level, it's too early to tell.

I think sometimes we forget that even in late 2020, after reaching close to ATH, there was still a couple of weeks of consolidation and wicks to the downside (upto -16%, similar to last week), especially when in considerably overbought territory like we were back then and are still in now. Would of been better to see the correction prior to new ATH rather than after, but you get what you're given.

Otherwise seems very reasonable and appropriate for ATH leverage traders to get rekt  

Ever notice how with every dip the MSM tries to attribute it to some news?

So what's this dip? The news that Craig Wrong is not Satoshi? 

Would have thought this would be good news to be honest!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Making my own shit coin. Craig Wrong With Hat.
The ticker will be SHITE.

It's gonna go to the moon ya'll.

[vapourminer]

Making my own shit coin. Craig Wrong With Hat.
The ticker will be SHITE.

It's gonna go to the moon ya'll.

shaddup and take my money already!!!!!!!!

[El duderino_]

Pre-halving crash to sub $60k ore even $50k initiated.

Love those calls from you

Been off the whole rally
Hoping for another misser 

Meanwhile been hitting the CrossFit daily and hard

[heslo]

Come on Saylor, buy another couple of billions worth.

He'll be on it soon, another $525 million raised. Looks like he will end up owning 1% of the total supply ever.... what a fucking gigachad

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1768608774900633983

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com