Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[xhomerx10]

[Biodom]

The sources of frustration for some bitcoiners (not me):

1. Bitcoin corrected about 10% too soon after reaching the ATH (73K).
My comment: this did not happen in 2020, but it surely did in 2017, when bitcoin reach ATH on 3/2 at 1280.71, then went down to 941.84 by 3/27 (26.5% down), which was roughly 20% below the prior ATH of $1160.

2. While bitcoin is "resting", some cr-p went up a lot, so masses started to muse about a "missed" opportunity.
Let them, of course, yet this verbiage permeates the blogosphere and CT.

TL;DR Such corrections almost immediately after a new ATH has happened before, but we should watch the $58,437 level (20% down) and $53,719 level (not a canonical one, but which corresponds to the March 2017 % correction shortly after achieving the new ATH). Alas, we might not even go near those numbers and, instead, turn around soon.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ivomm]

Saylor’s $500,000,000 offering closes today. We should see another smash buy sometime in the next couple of days that sends BTC to another peak. That would probably make a good short term selling opportunity for traders, but the big boom is still ahead of us. I think by Halloween we should be sitting above $100,000, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we revisited $50K first.

I know that Saylor has been a good advocate for Bitcoin in recent years. But is he really better than Rojer Ver, and others  like him? Of course, he is way too smart to fall into the trap of creating his own shitcoin and losing money trying to pump it. Instead, he is riding on the wave of Bitcoin by creating some kind of a ponzi. Below are some tweets from a long thread, describing in detail what is going on.

Michael Saylor is pumping Bitcoin on the media every single day & selling convertible notes to buy more $BTC. So why is he then selling 5000 shares of his $MSTR stock everyday for a cumulative $195m of stock sold YTD? This is almost a $1bn annual run rate fwiw. In September 2023 Saylor filed a 105b1 plan to regulary sell his shares. As you can see on the chart in the last thread he is selling at very regular intervals. So why is he issuing convertibles to buy more Bitcoin and simulataneously pushing up the price which then pushes up his stock price? Namely, because MSTR equity trades at an insane premium to its underlying Software business + BTC After-Tax holdings of 120%.  So this implies that for MSTR to trade at NO PREMIUM to its BTC holdings at $68k price the price of BTC would need to be $157,000 - 130% higher than last price I checked this morning. This has true blue ponzi / reflexive / flywheel dynamics in that Saylor issues converts to buy Bitcoin, drives up the price of Bitcoin, which drives up his equity value, then he sells his own stock, and then does it again. Guy has down two converts for $1.4bn in the last two weeks. Tbh, he should just keep doing them as long as the market will bear it. Just be weary when the arbitrage breaks down, as it always does. Then we could see some real unwinds. Probably need to look at the options market for clues as to when the protections will unwind.

https://twitter.com/BenBrey/status/1769737363280822381

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

Being US citizen is a fucking mess when you are REALLY wealthy and 'global' citizen. You don't choose where you are born, but the (VERY agressive) tax system has nothing to envy of the communists countries...

Gotta support that military/industrial complex.

Real patriots are happy to fork over their money. 

[BitcoinBunny]

Record GrayScale outflow on 18 March.

Something weird going on there with keeping their fees high.
Maybe they are preferring to have an Eth ETF eventually. It would suit them.

In all seriousness; it seems that GrayScale is the actual resource for the ETFs that were created.
Most likely an inside deal with Blackrock I suspect.
Simply not to ramp up the BTC price too much too soon?
I think with Wall Street having entered the space more we are also seeing more shenanigans going on.

And the irony of course is that crooks like Jamie Dimon said that Bitcoin was mostly used by criminals.
Unbelievable!
 

Watch what they do, not what they say....

[philipma1957]

The sources of frustration for some bitcoiners (not me):

1. Bitcoin corrected about 10% too soon after reaching the ATH (73K).
My comment: this did not happen in 2020, but it surely did in 2017, when bitcoin reach ATH on 3/2 at 1280.71, then went down to 941.84 by 3/27 (26.5% down), which was roughly 20% below the prior ATH of $1160.

2. While bitcoin is "resting", some cr-p went up a lot, so masses started to muse about a "missed" opportunity.
Let them, of course, yet this verbiage permeates the blogosphere and CT.

TL;DR Such corrections almost immediately after a new ATH has happened before, but we should watch the $58,437 level (20% down) and $53,719 level (not a canonical one, but which corresponds to the March 2017 % correction shortly after achieving the new ATH). Alas, we might not even go near those numbers and, instead, turn around soon.

Yeah Solana whaled.

But I have a hotspot in my attic it burns 10 cents a day and earns 25 to 50 cents a day.

I don’t care about it at all. So After two years I looked at the wallet had. Lot of HNT and a Lot of IOT.

they use solana to move the coin much like eth moves tokens.

I said fuck looks like Solana is better than the tokens I converted 500 in tokens to 500 in solana which is now 1000 which I purchased btc when btc dropped to 67k.

So I am fine with that opportunity.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Which government bought 475,000 BTC earlier this year? 


https://bitcointreasuries.net/

[OgNasty]

Record GrayScale outflow on 18 March.

Something weird going on there with keeping their fees high.
Maybe they are preferring to have an Eth ETF eventually. It would suit them.

They’re just milking their cash cow for all they can and hoping investors leave funds parked there. I think they knew they weren’t going to win the ETF war against Blackrock and Fidelity. At some point the outflows will stop and the fees will drop, but for now the money move is for them to do nothing.

[xhomerx10]

Which government bought 475,000 BTC earlier this year?  


https://bitcointreasuries.net/

 WTF?!  Ukraine bought billions worth!

Edit: looks like they bought 46k+ BTC for a little over US$20k each in Sept 2022

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Oh yes, Sunday now
Weekend dump before the pump
Healthy correction

BTC is really for the strong hearted... and those who look at it from macro-level.

Just when we are all enthralled with the enthusiasm of $100k price, it is already heading north not because it is the right direction at this time but just to prove that no one can accurately predict its movement. The best we can do while it decides what it wants to do. Anyways, 1BTC = 1BTC, and you only lose when you sell.

Now I see why people do this "1BTC = 1BTC" thingie...

It is because it is so difficult to keep track of its price... but still. it just isn't saying anything... even though maybe someone is using the expression to say to hang onto your BTC and/or stack more of them if you can no matter how much they might cost in terms of fiat.  Even though I don't really disagree with it, I still don't really like the expression.

I saw this yesterday, we can how past predictions is failing already, 2030 $90,962.23 when in reality we are expecting $100k around this year and next year.
Bitcoin price in the long term is not predictable. I agree with the 1BTC = 1BTC.

In the end what matters is to keep stacking because nobody may get the actual price but this we know that HODLing bitcoin will make us rich.
I have a question, do you think anyone doing DCA should switch to Lump Sum strategy?
Since we are aware of the up bitcoin halving in a month+ from now and getting bitcoin during at that time will helps us acquire more quantity of bitcoin in comparison with the quantity we can acquire through DCA now to that time

Those are pretty whimpy predictions.  The prediction starts with today's spot price and then multiplies by 5% each year, and we already know that BTC's 200-WMA moves up more than 20% per year (and 20% was its worst level of increase ever), so even conservative measures of how the  200-WMA moves up, beat that whimpy-assed prediction.

My current FU status chart shows the bottom as $136.5k with 14.66 BTC as fuck you status for mid 2030.. with

5/31/30      $136,455   14.65688302

And my anticipated update shows

5/31/30      $185,233      10.79718532

And, the above are bottom prices... so yeah, it is possible that the 200-WMA starts to underperform 20% per year, but I surely have my doubts... and a bare minimum of 20% per year would put you at similar numbers for the 200-WMA as you are showing with:

March 2024   $32,250

March 2025   $38,700

March 2026   $46,440

March 2027   $55,728

March 2028   $66,874

March 2029   $80,248

March 2030   $96,298

I surely have my doubts about that level of whimpiness, even though it is possible to happen that way, it seems like a less likely scenario.

In regards to your question, most people employ DCA because it is either 1) their only choice because they do not have lump sum amounts available to them, or 2) they move funds from one area to another with DCA because it is the most feasible way to do it... so they might in essence have a lump sum and then they just divide it up into several payments over several months and might even drag out their establishing their full BTC position for 6 months to a year or longer.

Lump sum investing can be considered as a way of front loading your investment, and I am a pretty big fan of attempting to front load your investment, yet at the same time, if you have already been DCAing in BTC for over year a and a half at around $100 per week (so lets say you got around $8k invested) - if we go by your forum registration date.. but you did not front load until now, then you seem to be FOMOing instead of front loading.. ...

but hey, whatever, better late than never, and so under this scenario, you have been holding back and so now after a year and a half of DCAing, you are having regrets that you did not DCA more aggressively, and you had been holding back, and so now you have $8k extra built up that you were waiting for the right time, and the right time did not come.. so therefore, you want to just Yolo it all in.. which maybe does not sound very rational.. but if you are regretting that you did not invest as much, then maybe you have to divide it in half and put $4k in and save the other $4k for buying on dips and just continue to DCA with your $100 per week.    Now in regards to my numbers, you can adjust them however you like to your own actual scenario...

I am just throwing out a possible scenario that shows you had already been investing, which maybe you spent 9 months sitting around and then the last 9 months you started to take bitcoin seriously and realized that you had not been investing as aggressively as you should, so when you invest whatever you have, you will largely be FOMOing in.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Are prices falling like this due to recent US inflation data? because if so... I will never be able to understand how all this works based on the macro market...

What seems to happen is: the inflation data was released and psychopathic traders around the world started selling everything automatically? this seems so strange to me... what kind of investors do this? 

that's how it works? Can someone more experienced explain?

I will explain that if you try to figure out some short term explanation for BTC price movements, you are wasting your time.

You must get a grip on yourself robin.


Prepare your lil selfie for either BTC price direction or neither, all at the same time, and in terms of that preparation, have a plan for what you are going to do if any of the directions play out at any given time.

Or follow additionally what the dude said.

[edited out]

Yes! I finished my capital transition to bitcoin in DEC 2022, INFINITE HODL... only DCA lately week, I'm not even going to sell anytime soon, maybe a little at 100k, but I would like to understand the modus operandi of the movement

No one can explain you the MO of BTC's price movement, and if they say that they can, then they are lying.

Generally speaking over a long enough period of time, BTC prices tend to go up.  It is not guaranteed, but that is how it has historically played out and it is likely to continue to play out.

In other words, BTC's investment thesis is not getting any weaker with the passage of time.

[JimboToronto]

Lest we forget:



And that's an understatement.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com