Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Saylor, Black Crock, Grayscale, ETFs, NFTs, Eth, Solana, Binance with its own coin, coin burning, stable coins, Dog wiv hat, staking, shite this, shite that.

Countless distractions....

 

EFTs may give some people peace of mind but so far every time we have seen "not your keys but we will keep you coin and promise to be good" end in complete disaster, I'm not sure I would recommend them.

Since the ETFs are backed by large, rich companies, shouldn't they be able to guarantee the funds anyway ?

I'm not invested personally but just wondering.

By law the ETF providers have to buy the number of BTC that are represented by the sales of shares to their clients, and I am not sure how much shenanigans they can play in that process.. surely they have figured out ways to play the various gaps and arbitrage it.... but at the same time, I am pretty sure they have to buy within a pretty short period of time perhaps less than 24 hours - and I am not sure how the weekends factor into those buying (or collateral maintenance) requirements.

There are also likely spaces between clients committing to the purchase of the ETF shares and the finalizing of the share sales price for the client and at what point they purchase the BTC and at what point the charge the client, and there could be situations where the client has to commit in advance, so that leaves the ETF provider with some wiggle room in how to play their clients.

I would imaging that some of the ETF providers play around with those time differences more than others in terms of gaining additional arbitrage, since they they seems to have good past practices of milking whatever clients that they can in the name of "good business."

About ETF i dont really know how this big companies manage internally this bags, if they have to collect profit from time to time, or if they only proceed from waht people brought or sell.

They have to match their clients.. but surely there could still be some built-in shenanigans since some of those BIG players are expert manipulators, yet in the end, the ETF providers are incentivized to pump their ETF products in order that they have more and more assets under management (AUM).. so they are ONLY going to manipulate and even suck extra value from their clients only so much.

more cheap corn for me 0.01 at 61750 nice

Nice I fully hedged off my sales in the 70's and my mining gear buy at 68k.

All missing corn is back. With more than $1000 left to spare.

At this time, my buy backs (or the interval between the sell and the buy) does not seem to be that great in terms of percentages, so maybe around 5% to trigger the first buy back and then the intervals are ONLY around 3-ish percent.. which means that my highest buy backs were around $69, and then around every $2k, so $67k, $65k and $63k, but the $61k one  has not hit (yet)..

I am around every $2k down to $57k, and then they become every $1,500 until I get down to about $42k, then they start to be every $1,250-ish.. and yeah.. I am wondering how many more buys will execute.. I don't like cheering for down, but I would not mind if my $61k orders would fill since they are already very close to filling.. but if they don't fill that it is o..k. too.. For me it ONLY gets frustrating with they are less than $100 from filling .. but it happens, sometimes, which is part of the way to attempt to set orders in ways that don't cause much if any emotion about it..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

it becomes more and more obvious that we gonna test 50k.  Maybe so obvious that we won't.

on the other hand according to cycles (fwiw) we are a year too early for a parabolic bullrun.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DirtyKeyboard]

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
All Credit to ChartBuddy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

it becomes more and more obvious that we gonna test 50k.  Maybe so obvious that we won't.

on the other hand according to cycles (fwiw) we are a year too early for a parabolic bullrun.

RSI/StochRSI on weekly aren't clear yet, but they don't look too bad on daily.
ETF net flow became negative, but many aren't buying, while only Silbert is selling.
Overall, the sentiment seems to be good, so IF we really gonna retest $50k, then it would likely be a short wick down, from $58k-ish figures. If we don't even touch this area, we might get away with a mere 20% correction only because of buying demand. This isn't a bad thing, especially if you believe in the S-curve.

OT: Still deciding on the exact choice of security camera, but i want remote recording. Not cloud-based, but using a wireless hub that connects to my home network via cable or wifi). Why? Because if video is stored on the camera itself, it would be too easy to just grab the sd card after destroying the cam, which means evidence gone. There's also a chance to scare them annoying crows away via built-in speakers on some models, if that doesn't freak out the horses). I put a fat lock on the front/loading door yesterday.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[DaRude]

Another $440 million outflow from you know who...

50 dumps of Grayscale.


 

So another day of -1%, leaving them with ~58% from what they started with on 11Jan. Speculators will speculate on how low they'll go, and how fast they'll get there, but it won't be too long before they fade into history.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

Another $440 million outflow from you know who...

50 dumps of Grayscale.


 

So another day of -1%, leaving them with ~58% from what they started with on 11Jan. Speculators will speculate on how low they'll go, and how fast they'll get there, but it won't be too long before they fade into history.

The CEO claimed that once outflows hit $12 billion they will lower the ETF fees.
I believe they are close to/over that mark now.

Something to do with covering probable fines or whatever. You can find the details if interested.

Whatever happened here exactly, we will probably find out eventually.

Usually, someone ends up behind bars it seems.  

[psycodad]

<snip>

OT: Still deciding on the exact choice of security camera, but i want remote recording. Not cloud-based, but using a wireless hub that connects to my home network via cable or wifi). Why? Because if video is stored on the camera itself, it would be too easy to just grab the sd card after destroying the cam, which means evidence gone. There's also a chance to scare them annoying crows away via built-in speakers on some models, if that doesn't freak out the horses). I put a fat lock on the front/loading door yesterday.

Never connect security cams via wireless, the thief with minimal knowledge will have $2 deauther device running in auto-attack mode in his pocket. Actually to a knowledgeable thief a wireless cam like a cam imitation serves more as an invitation than working as a repellent.

Personally I've found $30 PoE cams from China fitting my needs perfectly well, hell you even get PTZ HD cams for under $100. Ofcourse these cams need to be in an isolated subnet that is only connected to the videoserver (this applies to every other brand too, because you do not want data leaking and also you do not want to get part of a botnet attacking whatever high-profile target).

I use Zoneminder in two separate installations and it hasn't disappointed me yet and has a very open architecture that allows you to extend it in all directions. If you fit a good videocard (good, like in CUDA-capable) into the zm server you can even get it to detect (and recognize) objects and persons (i.e. no alarming if missus or kids are walking through the yard, but alerts for everything else as long as it is a person and not a stray cat).

HTH

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Leahized]

BTC Since the November 2022 Bear Market Bottom...

Bitcoin has experienced the following retraces:

• -23% (February 2023) lasting 21 days

• -21% (April/May 2023) lasting 63 days

• -22% (July/September 2023) lasting 63 days

• -21% (January 2023) lasting 14 days

This current pullback is only the 5th major retrace since the 2022 Bear Market Bottom

All of the pullbacks experienced just over -20% retracement depth

Bitcoin has pulled back -16% thus far

But the retrace began only last Thursday

The current retrace has therefore barely lasted a week

In sum, there are two key takeaways about retracements in this current cycle:

• The closer Bitcoin gets to a -20% retrace, the better the opportunity becomes

• Retraces need time to fully mature (at least 2-3 weeks, at most 2-months)
https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1770237669664301517

[ivomm]

Another $440 million outflow from you know who...

50 dumps of Grayscale.


 

So another day of -1%, leaving them with ~58% from what they started with on 11Jan. Speculators will speculate on how low they'll go, and how fast they'll get there, but it won't be too long before they fade into history.

The CEO claimed that once outflows hit $12 billion they will lower the ETF fees.
I believe they are close to/over that mark now.

Something to do with covering probable fines or whatever. You can find the details if interested.

Whatever happened here exactly, we will probably find out eventually.

Usually, someone ends up behind bars it seems.  

The behaviour of those who run away from the high fee is completely understandable. The funny thing is that the individual wisdom of running away from 1.5% fee leads to collective stupidity causing the current stall of the bull run. But I am not convinced that the fee is the main reason for these outflows. I've read some opinions that most of them didn't go in any other ETF company. May be the reason is that there are many people/companies that have had their funds locked up for years at a loss and are now rushing to release them at a very good profit.

A while back I quoted a long twitter thread where some pretty shady dealings of DCG/Genesis, investigated by SEC were discussed. It was funny for me that Boidom refuted them, as made up by me?!? Then what about the hundreds of pages on Internet? Are they also made up by me?  I will add just one quote from the many written on the matter:

Back in November, DCG's CEO Barry Silbert seemed optimistic that the company could weather the storm. Since then, however, things seem to have gotten worse because the company is under investigation and it has closed down its wealth management division called HQ this month. Moreover, Genesis sent home 30% of its staff this January after making a 20% employee cut in August last year.
https://www.bankfrick.li/en/news-and-insights/the-dcg-genesis-and-grayscale-saga-explained

But of course for each train there are passengers. There will be people, (later Boidom confessed he is a Greyscale investor), who will keep money in Greyscale, believing everything is fine. So, Greyscale won't go down to 0BTC, probably. The real bull run will start when they stop flooding the market with thousands each day.

[Bravut]

Will never make sense to me…
Having fear for the halving…
IMHO it’s a price increase instead of decrease situation.

 You're are making a clear point. I don't see the need for fear or any emotional disturbance as you have said  is all about price increment rather than a decrease situation.
Halving is necessary for every price cycle, of which gives us the direction of the cycle, currently bitcoin is in correction some are persons are already impatient about there holdings, I don't know how some will understand the market when they are ruled with fear. Forgetting that the best way to stand out in the bitcoin market is being patient, avoid panic and fear and having a long run mindset rather than short term goals.

[philipma1957]

Which government bought 475,000 BTC earlier this year?  


https://bitcointreasuries.net/

 WTF?!  Ukraine bought billions worth!

Edit: looks like they bought 46k+ BTC for a little over US$20k each in Sept 2022

I cant respond to my DMs as I can only message twice a day due to my account status. I’ve already renewed your main account and just need to know what content you want on the second account that you purchased.

So xhomerx10 or BitcoinBunny purchased their account from you?