Still you ignored my counters to your bet proposals with some of my own bet proposals - but some of this is looking more in your favor currently.... and so I am a bit surprised by how much consolidating (or the correction down to nearly $60k-ish.. .yet there could still be something bettable in terms of my saying that BTC prices would probably not go below $40k ever again and/or they would not go less than 20% above the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025.. and surely I am ONLY considering those as slightly better than 50/50..
My bad, I might had missed your counter offer, but got the impression you weren't interested in the vagueness of a 50% drop in 2024, as per below. As I said before, until there was a top formed/forming, there wouldn't be any bet I'd be willing to make on where a 50% correction came from, as it would be a complete stab in the dark (ie $80K, $100K, etc), only that I think it would in 2024.
so I am potentially giving you pretty good betting terms, versus the vague-ass shit that you had been outlining earlier.. with the 50% drop and blah blah blah. .but without hardly any parameters.. hahahahahaha...
You were wise to not take that bet then
so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k... and I might even feel that way all the way up to $160k.. except the problem is that the higher the price, the more chances that we could end up getting a 50% drop if we go up to the price too quickly, and since we were already at around $70k-ish (or was it $72k-ish) when I made that proclamation, I thought that there is almost no way that we could end up going up to $80k too quickly that would end up triggering a 50% drop. But, hey, I know anything is possible, I am just figuring out some parameters for a 50/50 bet in which I consider the odds are in my favor and how I might be able to distinguish between what we had been saying. and you are currently still anticipating $36k-ish to still be in the cards...and even supposedly to have greater than 50% odds of happening.. at least that has been the way you had been speaking prior to my proposing the bet possibility.
At current price (between $60K and $70K roughly), I'm pretty neutral about whether there will be such a correction from here, or higher levels, like $80K. What I
believe is more likely to happen isn't necessarily the odds I'd apply, as I'd prefer to stick to the odds that the chart is telling me. Even being 50/50 is a bit of a dubious position, as it's only the 20 DMA that's broken, the shorter-term time-frames remain bullish.
Not sure if you were asking me, but at present I'd say 50/50 further upside. With $60K breaking I'd be 60/40 for further downside. With $69K breaking to the upside I'd say 60/40 further upside.
On a side note: I'm also slightly surprised that price didn't continue on to $80K after breaking ATH, as there was certainly room for a blow-off style top with maximum overbought conditions. The momentum wasn't on the side of the bulls after all it seems, as it wasn't selling pressure but more so lack of buying pressure (based on volume that was declining since the top rather than increasing/maintaining with sell volume). But with that, and without a blow-off top with high sell volume, it doesn't necessarily put me in better position (in the context of betting on further downside), as price is instead consolidating right now. Neither the bulls nor the bears are showing they have the momentum for either further upside or downside, even if one side will eventually have a breakthrough with this in the near-term. But as referenced, below $60K, I would be 60/40 anticipating further downside over the next few months. Even if market structure isn't in my favour necessarily right now, I acknowledge that GBTC selling probably is at the moment.
So based on Coinbase high of $73,835.57, I make a 50% correction from current high $36,917.79, which I'd be willing to make a bet over
given a break of $60K. Granted this would only be a further -38% to the downside, but would be -50% from the top, which as you said you don't believe is very unlikely (at least without reaching $80K or higher). But I can understand that if price fell below $60K, maybe you'd increase your odds of reaching around $40K and therefore the bet would no longer be in your favour. But I'm basing this in your initial statement that would remain true even with breaking $60K or $50K for that matter:
so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k
So with this in mind, and a break of $60K (and price around that level as it were), I think me betting on $40K coming first and you on $80K would be a fairer bet no? That would be 33% in either direction from there. And would also mean I'm not relying on a precise number to fall to, given that I think -50% is more of a maximum that's likely, and could easily be a few percent off either way. I'd feel pretty daft if price got to $40K but miss $37K in reality. If anything I wonder if this bet would favour you more here, as price could reach $80K before reaching $40K for example... which is a risk I'd have to take here.
(With that last part I'd have to consider whether this bet would really be fair after all, and whether simply reaching $40K this year would fairer for me, even if price reached $80K for example)For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.
Good luck with that.
Seems he has no clue about how the market works and simply relies on the price movement rather than logics behind it, no doubt most persons come to the bitcoin market only during bull run.
Glad, you share insights on this.
Bare in mind that UnDerDoG81 has been the market since 2013, not just during the bull run, so I doubt they are clueless here.
I don't think that's what JJG was implying what you are saying either, only that the decision could be more emotional rather than logic based, which would also make sense if it's based on what he/she feels comfortable with holding, rather than what logically would be the "best" quantity to hold. Being 100% invested is otherwise very greedy, so you can look at this either way (even JJG isn't 100% invested!)
Poll
