By the way, I saw where you later said that it was a joke, and recall that even though we went down to around $56,500 around April 30, we are still having trouble getting down to some of the lower levels that you had been considering to be so probable.. yet sure, at the same time, we have not yet gotten to $80k or supra $80k numbers either.. so surely interesting times to have had been consolidating mostly between $60k and $70k for around 3.5 months-ish.
Yes, it looks a lot more interesting now after all this consolidation, and increasingly likely the break-out will be definitive once it occurs - ie continue in that direction for months to come once it happens. Price looks pretty indecisive still, given higher bullish and bearish volume candles cancelling themselves out in recent days. Given the low volume, it could certainly go either way from here. I'm still anticipating a continued correction since we've been failing to maintain the previous cycle ATH for so long now, which has never been a problem before in previous cycles, as well as other factors such as failing to continue to the upside from $68-70K levels back in March, which was the mid-cycle top potential, similar to summer 2019, and completely the opposite to December 2020 when price pierced through it with ease at $21K. Now ironically it's around $89K which would be the next target for a mid-cycle correction, but I'd happily concede that at that level a mid-cycle correction is unlikely to play out, so would probably be somewhat irrelevant it seems.
Additionally the miner capitulation hash ribbons post-havling signal last month (like clockwork) suggesting further consolidation/correction rather than immediate upside, which has generally been pretty reliable over the cycles, and so far is playing out even though it's only been a few weeks. So while at present price still looks/structured bullish, above longer-term MAs etc, there are bearish macro factors in play which wasn't the case a few months ago when I was speculating about a correction or consolidation as opposed to immediate further upside. This is nearly always the case with a few months of consolidation within a range at the highs, similar to early 2021 between $50K and $60K, where there were warning signs prior to a 50% correction. Of course we could look back and blame the China ban that was the catalyst, but this is generally irrelevant; the market was fragile enough for a state actor to take advantage, whereas if the market was full-blown bullish it would have barely had any effect on bullish momentum. Naturally a buy signal could otherwise turn this around to parabolic-bullish pretty swiftly like in July 2020, so as I said initially, it could quite easily go either way even if there are bearish warning signs that lack follow through.
Price strength is otherwise flirting with getting rejected from overbought levels, similar to November 2021, which while I don't believe will lead to a "major" correction (ie -75%), it could still lead to a significant correction before a 2025 bull market takes off, as there is a still most of two quarters left in the year, so plenty of time. At least historically, this type of a rejection often leads to a around a 25-35% correction, or alternatively a few months of consolidation (ie on top of the few months we've already had), which doesn't seem like a crazy idea anymore (ie 6 months consolidation). But again this is a case of if price is able to comfortably return to and maintain overbought levels, then there is a lot of room to the upside between an RSI of 70 and one of 90, similar to $35K to $45K move, or $42K to $69K. So generally, there's a lot more reason to be cautious at current prices compared to 3 months ago, even if not quite bearish if price can hold $60K support level. I just personally think price will struggle to do that, as was the case last month, whereas this time around returning to these support levels will be a lot worse, for example breaking the 20 Week MA around $63K has been a reliable signal for a deeper correction to come, and hasn't happened since last year.
It otherwise generally seems likes longer-term OTC sellers are distributing to ETFs, hence the range-bound price right now, given the relatively low spot volume in recent weeks/months, the continued accumulation (overall) from ETFs, and otherwise HODL waves showing longer-term holders taking profits. This seems also pretty clear from number of Bitcoins produced per day vs accumulation from ETFs. It's been said for months that this imbalance would lead to much higher prices (such as yourself), but so far this hasn't happened, and based on the low spot volume, the selling must be coming from elsewhere like OTC. This seems to be the current battle in play, and whether the current price range will be confirmed as an accumulation zone by ETF buyers, or a distribution zone for OTC sellers, isn't possible to assess until it happens.
Aside from how much bitcoin ETFs have aggressively been accumulating (around ~5% of total supply last I checked), I don't doubt that OTC sellers have a lot more than that on offer to sell at current prices if they continue as they have been. So this range could last another few months at this rate, until sellers run out of coins to sell, or otherwise ETFs slow down or stop accumulating. Generally I think it's best to let these whales play games between themselves, and let it play out, as there could be a bear whale / bull whale type of event that happens behind closed doors that would catch a lot of people off guard. So anyone longing or shorting on leverage within this range need to be extremely carefully, already the recent chop is a major warning sign that there is a determined battle between different entities or groups of bulls and bears at present. That might sound like a dramatic or exaggerated analysis of current price movement/range, but bear in mind the bulls are acting transparently via ETF accumulation that's well documented, while OTC bears are far from transparent with their dealings, so in this case I'd say have the slight upper hand, because no-one is really able to track how much they are selling or how much they have to sell.
Obviously this is just my opinion, generally just weighing the odds of the bullish market structure with my interpretation of the bearish warning signs, as well as some analysis of why I think price has been ranging for so long, and why the consolidation could also now continue. Ideally someone would provide another argument for this beyond "price suppression" which is generally a meaningless phrase unless backed up by facts or legitimate theories. Admittedly my scepticism about immediate continued upside has grown over the past few months, because I doubted that price would go much higher, and that a new ATH would be sustainable, based on hypotheticals and speculation, which so far has been the case. The fact price hasn't
considerably correction yet is somewhat irrelevant, as I accepted that it would likely take months to play out if it were to occur.
I have my doubts that there is any necessity for me to respond to any of your particular pieces of analysis, since I am not really sure if you are saying anything with any level of conviction, except that maybe you consider the odds for having a downward correction are greater than they had been earlier because of a failure to break to the upside - yet you are not even saying that with any level of meaningful conviction or specifics - except that certain lower levels might happen - and surely, I am willing to stick with a bet that I had earlier stated, which is that the BTC price will likely not get lower than 20% higher than the 200-WMA.. and sure yeah there could be breakouts to the top or the bottom, and I had largely just been proclaiming $55k to $82k to be no man's land.. causing a certain increased level of probability that the breakout is going to be towards the top rather than the bottom, but it is not like certainty, so maybe slightly greater than 55% odds.. add 2.5% odds since we are generally in a bull market and add an additional 2.5% odds since we are in no man's land, but that still only gets us to 45/55 rather than 50/50 odds or something other than that, and so that might not even give us anything that is bettable.. even you did not come back to suggest some kind of potential bettable terms when we dropped below $60k the last time.. around April 29 that lasted ONLY slightly less than 3 days.
I mean I can hardly see any changes to the conditions from the mere fact that BTC prices have largely been bouncing around at the top of the range between about $60k and $70k for the past 3.5 months-ish and yeah there may or may not be further consolidation.. and it hardly matters except that I am a wee bit surprised that we are hanging out in no man's land for quite longer than I thought, but it is not even like the upward's inclinations of noman's land and/or the greater chances of less resistance give any certainties regarding what might end up happening, since we recognize and appreciate that less likely scenarios can end up playing out, and less likely scenarios end up playing out a lot of times, which make them hardly tradeable and hardly bettable, except maybe considering some of the extremes might become bettable, for example if you are going to want to bet me that the BTC price is going to get below 20% above the 200-WMA prior to the end of 2025, or if you want to bet me that BTC prices are not going to end up touching somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024, or if you want to bet me that the high price for 2025 is not going to be higher than the high price for 2024. .and yeah I don't have great confidence in ay of these propositions, except that I would be willing to bet them in terms of their being greater than 50/50.. and even with that I understand that I might not end up winning the bet, even though they seem bettable from my perspective and it would be interesting if someone, like you, might be willing to take the opposite side of such potential bets..
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