Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

Just for curiosity sake:

Ben Cowen's no-landing, soft landing and hard landing numerology for bitcoin:

No-landing-turn around any minute/day. All things considered, I would prefer this one.
Soft landing-100wma at 39K (plus minus 2K). This is the one he favors.
Hard landing-400wma (wow!) at 21-23K

https://youtu.be/_zYhccye014?t=722

PlanB is probably not very happy rn and i would say that bitcoin as of today is on a deviation course from all that we knew beforehand as far as cycle timing, cost of production, scarcity (as far as stock to flow is concerned) etc, etc.

I, personally, have a particularly negative opinion about the stock to flow: according to that scheme, we should be valued higher than gold already (15-18 tril), so if we don't reach at least gold valuation in this cycle, stock to flow idea might die as a predicting model, going forward, with, perhaps, liquidity cycles replacing it.

[Hueristic]

I, personally, have a particularly negative opinion about the stock to flow: according to that scheme, we should be valued higher than gold already (15-18 tril), so if we don't reach at least gold valuation in this cycle, stock to flow idea might die as a predicting model, going forward with, perhaps, liquidity cycles replacing it.

I've always pointed out the fact it doesn't take derivatives into account.

[JayJuanGee]

Just for curiosity sake:

Ben Cowen's no-landing, soft landing and hard landing numerology for bitcoin:

No-landing-turn around any minute/day. All things considered, I would prefer this one.
Soft landing-100wma at 39K (plus minus 2K). This is the one he favors.
Hard landing-400wma (wow!) at 21-23K

https://youtu.be/_zYhccye014?t=722

PlanB is probably not very happy rn and i would say that bitcoin as of today is on a deviation course from all that we knew beforehand as far as cycle timing, cost of production, scarcity (as far as stock to flow is concerned) etc, etc.

I, personally, have a particularly negative opinion about the stock to flow: according to that scheme, we should be valued higher than gold already (15-18 tril), so if we don't reach at least gold valuation in this cycle, stock to flow idea might die as a predicting model, going forward, with, perhaps, liquidity cycles replacing it.

Do you have any opinion about the various arguments that Giovanni Santostasi makes in regards to bitcoin fitting in a power law curve.  Surely I don't claim to understand it exactly, and he criticizes Plan B for failing to acknowledge that Stock to Flow is a power curve that has been unduly complicated by 4-year cycles... and I don't even really claim to understand Giovanni's criticism of Stock to Flow, though he seems to be arguing that powerlaw curve is more reliable since it gravitates towards a line that is on an upward trajectory that lessens over time.

In fillippone's Power Law thread pointed out a few podcasts in which Giovanni is interviewed.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

......
Since you are now trying to brag that you have been successful trading ever since the beginning of your forum registration, then maybe we should show the results of going all the way back to the beginning of your forum registration rather than giving you some benefit of the doubt that you might have had made some mistakes in the beginning, but no, not you.  You are too perfect to make mistakes, so therefore you have been banging 10s since the beginning of your forum registration. ....

Ha!  Not to mention his past dealings with ....naaahh!...we won't go there. All the OG's on this forum know anyway.

[JimboToronto]

What the fuck is happening right now in the crypto market in general, is a rollcoaster in this weeks/months.

While nobody here gives a rat's ass about some goofy crypto, let me assure you it will always be a loser's game.

Buy Bitcoin and enjoy real wealth.

Calling Bitcoin "crypto" is like calling people animals. Sure, humans technically are animals but some of us consider ourselves to be above sub-human species.

-----

By the way, there's a whole sub-forum dedicated to crypto speculation:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=224.0

[sirazimuth]

....but some of us consider ourselves to be above sub-human species.
....

Yes, this needs to be emphasized more often on this here famous thread, else lurking normies and others may get the wrong idea... perhaps, perhaps??

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

......Since you are now trying to brag that you have been successful trading ever since the beginning of your forum registration, then maybe we should show the results of going all the way back to the beginning of your forum registration rather than giving you some benefit of the doubt that you might have had made some mistakes in the beginning, but no, not you.  You are too perfect to make mistakes, so therefore you have been banging 10s since the beginning of your forum registration. ....

Ha!  Not to mention his past dealings with ....naaahh!...we won't go there. All the OG's on this forum know anyway.

I don't even mind giving OgNasty some space to recoup his reputation and let bygones be bygones, but he cannot even seem to help but to want to continue to sell and promote himself on a never ending basis... like he is the best thing since sliced bread, instead of trying to be more neutral and humble in regards to these various kinds of bitcoin accumulation matters or bitcoin portfolio management matters.

Surely, I could try to proclaim that I have higher than 54x profits right now, yet does it even matter very much?  I am NOT even suggesting that guys have to beat some kind of a strict DCA strategy or even that maybe their BTC price performance might have been half of a strict DCA strategy, yet they still could proclaim victory by still being in the BTC game and largely being in profits, yet at the same time realizing that the portfolios of some guys might have done better and some might have done worse, yet many of us would still be attempting to tailor our own strategies in accordance with our own particular 9-ish circumstances, which is going to vary from person to person.

I might not be as humble as I need to be either.  I am not sure, since I do look up my own numbers from time to time based on the time that I got into bitcoin, which was late November 2013, so surely we could adjust our BTC accumulation numbers and the amount that we had invested into BTC to show whether or not we have beaten a strict BTC accumulation strategy, yet I am proclaiming that whatever I did ended up beating a strict DCA approach.  We can look at the DCA charts and see that if a person had invested $100 per week into BTC since December 1, 20013 until present, he would have had invested just over $56k, and he would have had accumulated 46.31 BTC (valued currently at right about $2.5 million), and so that would be right around 44.6x in profits, even though I am claiming to currently be at right around 54x profits.

I think that part of the reason that my own BTC holdings beat a strict DCA approach is because I largely front-loaded my investment into BTC in the earliest days of my BTC investment (and not everyone is able to do that), and I did not selling BTC as a means to attempt to accumulate more BTC.  In other words, I did not sell any BTC until I concluded that I had reached a status of overaccumulation (which largely I reached that status in 2015), and so I didn't ever really get out of my status of having had overaccumulated BTC, which remains my current status today.  

It is true that if we calculate someone who early accumulated BTC from December 2013 until December 2016, and who had invested the same $56k, such a person would have had accumulated right around 144 BTC (which would have had been right around $7.77 million),  which would be nearly 139x profits.  So surely there are ways that I could have had reported even better profits than the 54x amounts that I am currently reporting for myself, so I am not even suggesting that my performance is the best or that I could have done better, even though surely I could have done worse, too, and members here might want to report that the greatly outperformed DCA, and there is nothing wrong with variance existing within the performances of the portfolios of members, and surely sometimes we do try to learn from our mistakes or even to suggest that our method did better than another method...so I am not even concerned if a member who is a bit of a bragger ended up outperforming my own BTC holdings.

Yet, maybe I become a bit more resentful about guys proclaiming that selling BTC in order to accumulate more of it is any kind of a sound BTC accumulation strategy, since we are not ONLY talking to bitcoin veterans in this thread, but we are also talking to newbies who are still in relatively early stages of building their BTC holdings, so strategies that I tend to suggest are meant for everyone yet also somewhat sensitive to the plight of the bitcoin newbie or the bitcoin BTC accumulator/investor who is in his first cycle of BTC accumulation, and so I still consider that the same rules apply whether we are in our first cycle or it might even take longer than a whole cycle for any bitcoin investor to get to a status of either having had accumulated enough or to have had overaccumulated, which I believe is what is needed before even considering selling any BTC (beyond sell and replace), yet members like OgNasty, and even other members promoting BTC trading, are suggesting that BTC trading is a reasonable method to accumulate more BTC, and surely I don't agree with that kind of an assessment or approach to bitcoin accumulation.  

From my perspective, it becomes even worse when guys become arrogant about using BTC trading as a method to supposedly accumulate more BTC, which from my point of view is more likely to result in members losing bitcoin (and/or losing value) rather than gaining bitcoin (gaining value), even if some members proclaim that they have become BTC trading experts.  Trading takes more skills rather than either predicting the BTC price or following someone who supposedly knows everything.

[estenity]

Stocks down --> Bitcoin down.

Stocks up --> Bitcoin up.

at least partially true, financial crisis presently brewing, and we know that wall street is now part of us.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kamala-karnage-market-goes-haywire

two days of red markets in one month, yesterday was uniformly red.

warren buffets selling big chunk of big bank, why ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-continues-dumping-bofa-shares

normally btc should react positively, but ?

[DaRude]

Stocks down --> Bitcoin down.

Stocks up --> Bitcoin up.

at least partially true, financial crisis presently brewing, and we know that wall street is now part of us.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kamala-karnage-market-goes-haywire

two days of red markets in one month, yesterday was uniformly red.

warren buffets selling big chunk of big bank, why ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-continues-dumping-bofa-shares

normally btc should react positively, but ?

In last 10 days, since 27August, BTC ETFs unloaded $1,186B or about BTC20,5k (over 1,5 months of supply just in 10 days). With the whole Durov saga hedge funds might be thinking we're entering the "they fight us" stage and unloading corn.  Very telling that blackrock had 0 flow in those past 10 days except for one day 29Aug where they had -$13,5MM outflow. That is, on 27Aug corn was at ~$62k and today ETFs closed around ~$53,5k and all 0 flow days except for one.

The other issue is the correlation with the "risk-on" assets. This might be part of the "taming bitcoin". As long as funds holding BTC treat it as a risk-on asset it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and traders gonna trade...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Stocks down --> Bitcoin down.
Stocks up --> Bitcoin up.

at least partially true, financial crisis presently brewing, and we know that wall street is now part of us.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kamala-karnage-market-goes-haywire

two days of red markets in one month, yesterday was uniformly red.

warren buffets selling big chunk of big bank, why ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-continues-dumping-bofa-shares

normally btc should react positively, but ?

In last 10 days, since 27August, BTC ETFs unloaded $1,186B or about BTC20,5k (over 1,5 months of supply just in 10 days). With the whole Durov saga hedge funds might be thinking we're entering the "they fight us" stage and unloading corn.  Very telling that blackrock had 0 flow in those past 10 days except for one day 29Aug where they had -$13,5MM outflow. That is, on 27Aug corn was at ~$62k and today ETFs closed around ~$53,5k and all 0 flow days except for one.

The other issue is the correlation with the "risk-on" assets. This might be part of the "taming bitcoin". As long as funds holding BTC treat it as a risk-on asset it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and traders gonna trade...

I don't know from where you are getting your data, since when I look at the Bitcoin spot ETF data on https://farside.co.uk/btc/, I see negative outflows nearly every day for the last 9 business days (two weeks) for both Black Rock and for overall negative outflows too, except Monday, August 26 was overall positive.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

Take a break buddy.

Current state of mind:



All is good

Wo Gang, all is ok
I am laying on the beach
Corn will grow again


#Haiku