Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

What the fuck is happening right now in the crypto market in general, is a rollcoaster in this weeks/months.

you must be new here

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

I just continue to point out how incredibly accurate and successful I’ve been for 13+ years now because I’ve earned that.

Let's get to the punchline.  Have you done better than 1,080x returns or not?  alternatively have you done better than 63x returns or not?

for someone "incredibly accurate and successful" with the amount of time ognasty has been here.. why is ognasty the one wearing paid sig to get money for posting in a campaign.

youll notice i, and many others, are not here to get "followers," have no sigs, dont get paid to post and we have no desire to be "influencers"

we post what the fuck we want when the fuck we want. no ulterior motive for us. we are here to have fun and give occasional observations pf price acton. not to type a quota to get paid.

as for myself, i assure you all ive made mistakes. and ive still made out like a bandit.

so.. with ognasty DYOR... especially with personal claims like the above.

[bitcoinPsycho]

 

100%

[pakhitheboss]

Is Bitcoin heading towards $40K? Historically September has been the month when Bitcoin price has always taken a sharp downward momentum. I miss $70K and will wait for Bitcoin to rebound.

[philipma1957]

hey if you purchased under 1k and held till now you made out well.

it is not rocket science. as to what happens next its complex.

so you are in cheap 10 plus coins at 1k or better yet 100 coins at 1k.

those people have very simple easy choices they made out . they only need to decide how much to be in cash vs btc.

100 coins is now 5.3 mill instead of 7.3 mill.

So if og wants to earn 200 a week with a signature fine.

i have been here 12 years and had signatures for maybe 4 of the 12.

i gave away a lot of btc to promo .  maybe 10 btc at the under 1k price .

og donated a lot of btc to bitcointalk when it was cheap.

it is a different path for everyone of us.

but some worry the wheels are falling off again.

lucky for me I am not rich and don’t have 100 btc to worry about.

If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.

A lot of people are feeling the stress of hodling especially if they did a variation of the pass at 73k move.

I am still waiting for us to settle after the rate cut in mid september. maybe I buy a coin maybe I don’t.

but the slot looks like it is solid 49k-73k since february locked in for now.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[estenity]

Stocks down --> Bitcoin down.

Stocks up --> Bitcoin up.

at least partially true, financial crisis presently brewing, and we know that wall street is now part of us.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kamala-karnage-market-goes-haywire

two days of red markets in one month, yesterday was uniformly red.

warren buffets selling big chunk of big bank, why ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/warren-buffett-continues-dumping-bofa-shares

normally btc should react positively, but ?

In last 10 days, since 27August, BTC ETFs unloaded $1,186B or about BTC20,5k (over 1,5 months of supply just in 10 days). With the whole Durov saga hedge funds might be thinking we're entering the "they fight us" stage and unloading corn.  Very telling that blackrock had 0 flow in those past 10 days except for one day 29Aug where they had -$13,5MM outflow. That is, on 27Aug corn was at ~$62k and today ETFs closed around ~$53,5k and all 0 flow days except for one.

The other issue is the correlation with the "risk-on" assets. This might be part of the "taming bitcoin". As long as funds holding BTC treat it as a risk-on asset it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and traders gonna trade...

1.78 trillion have disappeared from the US stock market in one week

https://nitter.poast.org/WatcherGuru/status/1832156380113014864#m

[BlackHatCoiner]

If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.

This precise notion that you're losing nominal value in the short term is what keeps people from enjoying 100x profits. The exact same thing could have been said when Bitcoin fell from $200 to $150. If you had $7.3M in Bitcoin back then, that "correction" would cost you 2 millions in nominal value. But, it's evident that whether you entered in $200 or in $150, it's completely meaningless; all it matters is that you entered that early.

Those who lack the guts and confidence are not worthy of the significant gains. It is not me who says it, it's mother nature, apparently.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

But what doing it?  selling more than buying?

Who?  I know that the who can start with manipulators, but if they can convince others to be scared, then the ones who started it don't have to continue sell their coins and they might even be able to buy back what they had sold to get the down process started.  These tactics do not always work out successfully for the one(s) who started it.

How?

I am not sure 100% but it seems to me that if you have the funds and if things are being thinly traded, one can do things to the market that amplify the effect of your coins by exploiting psychological and predictable strategy and systemic weaknesses.

For example, what I was suggesting might be occurring, spending a lot to send the market down would be expensive and counterproductive while a quick strike to knock the market down would soon be countered by those ready to buy the dip. So the move would be to wait until just before people were (statistically) likely to do so then knock the price down again, damaging confidence and dampening any recovery.

Then, of course, we are all familiar with liquidating shorts and longs, fomo, weak hands. There also seems potential in timing things when people are otherwise occupied like at church or the beach/river or when various markets are sleeping. You don't have to be successful every time, just on average. Or maybe you're not even successful on average, you're just a whale wasting money trying to be clever.

Or maybe it's all confirmation bias 

[Richy_T]

If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.

It's not a loss (assuming you're accounting in filthy fiat) until you cash in. The truth is, if you could perfectly trade all the moves in BTC, you'd be a billionaire in *minutes*. But to think you can is to fall for a gambler's mentality and that's a path to poverty except for a few who will experience survivor bias (until they don't).

But yes, hodling has its pains, especially as Bitcoin is down more often than it is up (but those ups...)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.

This precise notion that you're losing nominal value in the short term is what keeps people from enjoying 100x profits. The exact same thing could have been said when Bitcoin fell from $200 to $150. If you had $7.3M in Bitcoin back then, that "correction" would cost you 2 millions in nominal value. But, it's evident that whether you entered in $200 or in $150, it's completely meaningless; all it matters is that you entered that early.

Those who lack the guts and confidence are not worthy of the significant gains. It is not me who says it, it's mother nature, apparently.

or btc is tamed and you do not moonshot .  It simply stay slotted at 49k to 80k for the next 10 years.

Do not think it is possible.

Check how gold stayed in a slot for 11 years before it broke out.

Realize btc could be pushed down for next ten years.

Realize why do we have 670 eh of gear protecting it.  Or is it helping to force a slot on btc.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.

It's not a loss (assuming you're accounting in filthy fiat) until you cash in. The truth is, if you could perfectly trade all the moves in BTC, you'd be a billionaire in *minutes*. But to think you can is to fall for a gambler's mentality and that's a path to poverty except for a few who will experience survivor bias (until they don't).

But yes, hodling has its pains, especially as Bitcoin is down more often than it is up (but those ups...)

you couldn't say it any better imo

[Biodom]

If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.

This precise notion that you're losing nominal value in the short term is what keeps people from enjoying 100x profits. The exact same thing could have been said when Bitcoin fell from $200 to $150. If you had $7.3M in Bitcoin back then, that "correction" would cost you 2 millions in nominal value. But, it's evident that whether you entered in $200 or in $150, it's completely meaningless; all it matters is that you entered that early.

Those who lack the guts and confidence are not worthy of the significant gains. It is not me who says it, it's mother nature, apparently.

or btc is tamed and you do not moonshot .  It simply stay slotted at 49k to 80k for the next 10 years.

Do not think it is possible.

Check how gold stayed in a slot for 11 years before it broke out.

Realize btc could be pushed down for next ten years.

Realize why do we have 670 eh of gear protecting it.  Or is it helping to force a slot on btc.

Gold existed for 5000 years as a metal used to store value. 11/5000X100%=0.22% of the time.
Bitcoin existed for 15 years or about 5475 days...0.22% of that is 12 days. well, we were down for longer already, so....
Additionally, gold was never in a "slot" in the times you indicated.

Gold hit a high of $830 in 1980, went down to around $255 in 1999, retested the bottom at $257 in 2001 and then started rising: first slowly until 2004 (in $600s), then faster until 2011 (around $1800-1900), then corrected to $1060 in 2015 and has been rising since.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold

Where is the "slot"? Two sides of the ground depression is not a "slot", but edges of a hole.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Do not think it is possible.

People do not make decisions based on possibility. They make decisions based on probability. Is it possible that you win the lottery? Yes. Is it probable? Of course not, and that's why it's foolish to rely on lottery for your retirement.

Is it possible that Bitcoin stays at this $50-70k for the next 10 years? Of course and it's possible. Is it probable? I highly doubt so.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com