hey if you purchased under 1k and held till now you made out well.
it is not rocket science. as to what happens next its complex.
so you are in cheap 10 plus coins at 1k or better yet 100 coins at 1k.
those people have very simple easy choices they made out . they only need to decide how much to be in cash vs btc.
100 coins is now 5.3 mill instead of 7.3 mill.
So if og wants to earn 200 a week with a signature fine.
i have been here 12 years and had signatures for maybe 4 of the 12.
i gave away a lot of btc to promo . maybe 10 btc at the under 1k price .
og donated a lot of btc to bitcointalk when it was cheap.
it is a different path for everyone of us.
but some worry the wheels are falling off again.
There has always been some reason to worry in bitcoinlandia, so I doubt that the reasons to worry right now are any greater than they ever had been. There are ways to combine all of the good news and all the bad news and still come out to conclusions that bitcoin's investment thesis is not really becoming weaker, and in fact, bitcoin's investment thesis is likely becoming stronger, even though upside potential becomes less and less with the passage of time, since bitcoin has been gaining in price over time and likely gaining in price faster and greater than other assets, so in that regard, some of the early adopter premium (surplus) that might be contained within bitcoin has been becoming smaller and smaller, even though I am not going to claim that such early adopter premium has completely been used up.. so for example, we can continue to consider that it is quite likely that bitcoin continues to have at least 1,000x the value of bitcoin and bitcoin is currently ONLY about 1/15th Gold's price (in terms of market cap), and even if it might take 50-200 years or longer for BTC price to match a more appropriate and accurate level relatively to gold, there still is a lot of upside in bitcoin that may could get balanced out in the coming 5-20 years or so... which in essence suggests that bitcoin is going to continue to be a great investment in spite of your whining about perceptions of some wheels supposedly coming off.
lucky for me I am not rich and don’t have 100 btc to worry about.
If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.
Quite likely part of the explanation that you don't have 100 BTC or more is because you hardly have any ability to hold BTC, and you get too obsessed about paper losses that historically have ended up working themselves out in bitcoinlandia... and you have continued to fail/refuse to keep value in bitcoin so any appreciation that you have experienced in bitcoin over the 12ish years that you have been in bitcoin have been small potatoes as compared with the various compounding of value that you could have had experienced if you had been a wee bit more inclined to just hold onto your bitcoin and not to get so much worried about short term fluctuations in BTC prices.
You are demonstrating the same kind of scaredy-cat emotions that you were showing when BTC prices went below $20k in mid-2022.. yeah sure you were correct for a short period of time in which you sold BTC and you could have had bought back cheaper for several months at lower prices, but you were too busy buying stupid-ass secure financial instruments (such as IBonds), hanging onto cash and failing/refusing to buy back in (since you were waiting for sub $12k and maybe even sub $10k prices that did not even come close to happening...so the lower the BTC price got (and yeah we got down to $15,479), the more convinced that you became that the bTC price was going to be going lower, so you continued to fail/refuse to buy during those times that you should have had been buying rather than telling yourself how scared that you were.
Maybe I can help you with an example? or to build on your 100 BTC example? There are various scenarios in which someone might have 100 BTC and nothing else, and there are also scenarios in which someone might have 100 BTC plus other kinds of assets and potentially just 100 BTC and cash. So you are presuming that someone hanging onto 100 BTC does not have any cash because such a person was so bullish about the BTC price going up so that he was all in on cash, so that when the BTC price went down, lost $2 million. Sure that situation might exist, but you are still making a bit of a straw-man out of it, even though we do know some guys here who hardly ever sell any of their BTC, even though maybe they should be selling some here and there on the way up, but even the guys who are mostly accumulating BTC and/or just waiting until the BTC prie reaches a certain amount (perhaps $100k plus?) before they start to employ any of their BTC selling strategies, then yeah, those guys had lost nearly 30% of the value of their stash, and they had been there before, too.. and some of them either just hold and/or buy on some of the more severe dips..
I doubt that the situation is as fucking dire as you seem to be wanting to make it out to be. Such guy who currently has 100 BTC, might have had 97 BTC in the March 2021 BTC price run and then lost more than 50% on in the mid 2021 drop and then maybe had 98 BTC in the November 2021 price run, and then lost around 75% in the 2022 BTC price drop, and so then now he had around 99.5 BTC for the early 2024 price run, and he potentially acquired another 0.5 BTC in the various recent corrections.. .and so yeah, he might be waiting for some kind of a price run into the supra $100ks prior to starting to employ some kinds of a sustainable withdrawal strategies that might be price-based and/or time-based.. but in the meantime, he is just riding the ups and the downs of the BTC price moves.. and yeah, if he wants to shave off 10 BTC, it is not going to make too much of a difference if he shaves off 10 BTC for $530k rather than he could have had shaved them off at $730k.. that is if he were to be in the mood to start shaving at this time rather than waiting for $100k.. yet I doubt that he would be even wanting to shave 10 BTC at a time..
If he does not start with price-based shaving, and instead starts with time-based shaving, then he could assess the value of his BTC holdings in terms of the 200-WMA, and he could
recognize that his 100 BTC are worth close to $3.9 million by using the 200 WMA.. so then he could decide to shave off something like $390k for the year, which might be a little less than $100k for each of the quarters or perhaps a little more than $30k each month. Since the BTC price is currently around 40% higher than the 200-WMA, he may well continue to be able to withdraw around $30k per month as long as the BTC price stays more than 25% above the 200-WMA.. so yeah, if he is worried about the BTC price getting too close to the 200-WMA, then he could withdraw a year in advance or something like that... and so surely those are discretionary considerations regarding how to manage his holdings in the event that he decides to employ mostly time-based rather than price-based withdrawal. On the other hand, if he prefers to wait for the BTC price to go up further before starting to execute any withdrawals, then there surely would be some risk to that if we are presuming that such a guy had not so far been executing any BTC withdrawals before now.
No matter what, the guy with 100 BTC has quite a few options.
Surely, if we reduce his stash to 50 BTC or even to 20 BTC, he might have a quite few more dilemmas in regards to starting to employ any kind of withdrawal system, and surely the more BTC that a guy has, then the more likely he would have more flexibilities in terms of how he might employ his withdrawals if he decides that now is the time to start to employ such withdrawals in the event that he had not done so previously.
A lot of people are feeling the stress of hodling especially if they did a variation of the pass at 73k move.
Sure, there could be a few guys who are feeling stress of HODLing since $73k and regretting not selling in that price range, yet it seems to me that you are largely just making shit up, so that you can describe scenarios in which guys should be trading rather than buying on the dip and accumulating and holding and doing the various other things that longer term BTC accumulators/holders do... especially the ones that are not so preoccupied (like you are) in regards to the short-term fiat value.. Yeah, maybe when a guy has a shorter-timeline, he becomes more worried about the fiat value, yet there are also some guys (like you seem to be) who just get worked up about the fiat value of bitcoin no matter what, which has been part of the reason that you have not been able to hang onto your BTC through the various volatile periods throughout the years of bitcoin, and the volatile period that currently we are going through is surely not any worse than volatile periods in bitcoin that we have historically gone through.
I am not going to claim to know what guys should do, yet I doubt that the situation of BTC holders is even as close to as dire as you seem to be wanting to make it out to be.
When you are going on like a crazy man about the security of bitcoin holding its value and blah blah blah, that may well be a sign that we are at or close to our local bottom, even though surely we might still get a wee bit more downward movement, but you still don't seem to be a bad reverse indicator in a lot of the things that you tend to say...especially when you get into an "advice giving" mode.
I am still waiting for us to settle after the rate cut in mid september. maybe I buy a coin maybe I don’t.
Protip: Buy a half a coin and be done with it. hahahahahahaha
but the slot looks like it is solid 49k-73k since february locked in for now.
So far that has been our price range, and yeah we could break up or we could break down. If we are still in a bull market then the odds are greater that we are going to be breaking up rather than down, even though surely currently we are towards the bottom of such range.
If I had 100 btc at 73k and did not cash 10 of them I would be kicking myself in the ass now that my 100btc is down to 53k each. as it would be a 2 million loss.
This precise notion that you're losing nominal value in the short term is what keeps people from enjoying 100x profits. The exact same thing could have been said when Bitcoin fell from $200 to $150. If you had $7.3M in Bitcoin back then, that "correction" would cost you 2 millions in nominal value. But, it's evident that whether you entered in $200 or in $150, it's completely meaningless; all it matters is that you entered that early.
Those who lack the guts and confidence are not worthy of the significant gains. It is not me who says it, it's mother nature, apparently.
Wow!!!! You said it much better than me, and way shorter, too.
Poll
