Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

everybody exhausted yet?


I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways

I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.

Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there 

One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy

halving should still have an impact...on miners.
If the price does not increase at least 2X between halvings and energy cost and difficulty rise/efficiency stays the same (stable), miners would become not profitable.
Energy cost is increasing relatively slowly, and it is possible that difficulty rise and efficiency improvement would cancel each other out, albeit it seems that difficulty is still rising faster for now.
I am not surprised that miners try to accumulate bitcoin as a result.

wouldn't difficulty just come down until miners are in profit again?

[Gachapin]

everybody exhausted yet?


I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways

I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.

Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there 

One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy

I’m definitely almost there. I can see how the last cycle was messed up by the FTX fraud and I can grasp the concept that the ETFs pulled in investment and moved the cycle forward as a result this time. However, I want to believe this is just Trump showing us the Art of the Deal. He isn’t a guy to buy tops forever like Michael Saylor and I still have a shred of hope that Trump caused this calamity to get the US a good buying opportunity. Did people expect him to pump the price before the US buys their stack? Time will tell… I’m still targeting September 16th as the top for this cycle, but I do have my doubts.

If it's really September it would probably be a very disappointing ATH ...
How did you come up with that date btw?

[OgNasty]

everybody exhausted yet?


I guess we go up for real in fall or early winter... it's gonna happen anyways

I sure hope you’re right but I’m beginning to have my doubts. Days like today in my experience are usually followed by months of pain. Hopefully we’re just seeing tax selling and tariff panic and not a real downturn, but I’ll admit my faith is being tested. If this was my first rodeo I’d be panic selling here.

Yeah I also think pain (and boredom) until fall. Until everybody is exhausted and nobody believes in a bullrun anymore. You are almost there  

One a sidenote, cycles will probably be different from now on, supercycle or whatever but not what we had until now. Bitcoin is maturing and halving will have less and less impact, except from being a fading self fulfilling prophecy

halving should still have an impact...on miners.
If the price does not increase at least 2X between halvings and energy cost and difficulty rise/efficiency stays the same (stable), miners would become not profitable.
Energy cost is increasing relatively slowly, and it is possible that difficulty rise and efficiency improvement would cancel each other out, albeit it seems that difficulty is still rising faster for now.
I am not surprised that miners try to accumulate bitcoin as a result.

wouldn't difficulty just come down until miners are in profit again?

No, because investment and build-outs take time.  There's billions of dollars being poured into purchasing and setting up equipment in newly built datacenters.  Those projects aren't going to stop because difficulty or costs rise.  They will stop when the underlying businesses fail and go bankrupt.  That's the only (likely) thing that would cause difficulty to drop and it would probably just lead to assets being liquidated for pennies on the dollar and a market crash.  At that point you'll have vultures showing up with new investments and the cycle can begin anew.  We're still a LONG WAY from this happening and I don't think we've seen something like this occur since 2018.  We're honestly due for the pain, but I was hoping we'd see $200K this year first.  When you see rows of S21s being run over by a steamroller to reduce their scrap footprint, then the cycle is ready to reset.

I’m still targeting September 16th as the top for this cycle, but I do have my doubts.

If it's really September it would probably be a very disappointing ATH ...
How did you come up with that date btw?

It is the right amount of days after the halving to line up with the previous 2 cycle highs (excluding the FTX fraud modified cycle).  That doesn't necessarily mean I'm going to sell my stack on September 16th, but it means that is what I am expecting to be the normal peak for this cycle.  Could it be accelerated to a few months ago due to the ETF and MSTR sucking in future investment funds?  Sure, that is a real possibility.  Could we see a million dollar Bitcoin in September if the United States decides to buy 200,000 BTC this year and the S&P 500 decides to pile in with them and the states?  We surely could.  It is admittedly looking less and less likely by the day though.  I was disappointed by the Amazon and Microsoft shareholder votes on BTC and I think that was probably the first sign this cycle wasn't going to go as thought.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Tauja]

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.

Let's go!

That was a shock, wasn't this cycle supposed to see bitcoin above $110k.

But this time it's different because we have the opportunity to continue buying at a low price.

[Richy_T]

Isn't the purpose "use bitcoin" rather than drooling about making 100 billion dollars 50 years later?

Not since blocks started filling up.

I doubt that block space is the ONLY (or even a significant) reason that people are reluctant to spend their coins.  There may be some hesitancy in regards to accounting, and yeah, if there were some de minimus amount (perhaps around $1k per transaction and $20k per month) that could be exempted from accounting/taxes, then that could be a step in the right direction.. but yeah, I am not sure if it would incentivize more merchants to start accepting bitcoin/.. Merchant's surely get worried about accounting matters, even though peer to peer we might not care about accounting matters, to the extent that we are able to peer to peer transact without being monitored and/or controlled... so many folks hold their bitcoin directly through third -party exchanges, too... but then what levels of direct transacting might we do with each other?  Go out to eat with friends, and then one person pays with a credit card, and then the other directly pays him in bitcoin?  Sell some kind of product directly to another person.. .. or even selling a good/service under the table rather than through formal accountings, getting back to merchant interactions, no?

Transaction fees and the potential of delayed transactions add significant friction. I'm not going to litigate the whole block size debate here again but there's no arguing that it has had the effect of reducing the direct use of bitcoin. This was even acknowledged and stated as desirable by those on the side of small blocks and the whole lightning network was premised on restoring some of that liquidity (a flawed application of a reasonable technology IMO).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.
Let's go!

Gosh.. That almost sounds like a bet.

Bottom?

Are you talking about the bottom for today?  $81,200?  0r some other bottom?

What are the odds that the bottom is really in?  50/50?  You seem to think the odds are better than 50/50.

Isn't the purpose "use bitcoin" rather than drooling about making 100 billion dollars 50 years later?

Not since blocks started filling up.

I doubt that block space is the ONLY (or even a significant) reason that people are reluctant to spend their coins.  There may be some hesitancy in regards to accounting, and yeah, if there were some de minimus amount (perhaps around $1k per transaction and $20k per month) that could be exempted from accounting/taxes, then that could be a step in the right direction.. but yeah, I am not sure if it would incentivize more merchants to start accepting bitcoin/.. Merchant's surely get worried about accounting matters, even though peer to peer we might not care about accounting matters, to the extent that we are able to peer to peer transact without being monitored and/or controlled... so many folks hold their bitcoin directly through third -party exchanges, too... but then what levels of direct transacting might we do with each other?  Go out to eat with friends, and then one person pays with a credit card, and then the other directly pays him in bitcoin?  Sell some kind of product directly to another person.. .. or even selling a good/service under the table rather than through formal accountings, getting back to merchant interactions, no?

Transaction fees and the potential of delayed transactions add significant friction. I'm not going to litigate the whole block size debate here again but there's no arguing that it has had the effect of reducing the direct use of bitcoin. This was even acknowledged and stated as desirable by those on the side of small blocks and the whole lightning network was premised on restoring some of that liquidity (a flawed application of a reasonable technology IMO).

Even though you don't want to litigate the whole block size war, you still want to argue that the blocksize needs to increase in order to facilitate bitcoin transactions...and I see no real reason to add to what I already said.. it is not like I have anything more to say except maybe to just repeat that the problem and/or the solution is not as non-controversial as you are making it seem to be, with your ongoing insistence on wanting to change bitcoin in the direction of BIGGER blocks and your continuing to believe that bitcoin transactions would be improved from that kind of a change...

Maybe another thing that I should mention, for shits and giggles, is that in recent times, we have been seeing quite a bit of empty blocks and really low transaction fees, so transacting on bitcoin has been quite a bargain for several months, maybe even 9 months or so back to mid-2024.   We can look at recent blocks,

https://mempool.space/

and we can look at the extent to which the mempool had transactions backed up.  

https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1y,weight

I doubt that this data justifies that the block sizes are too small, even if you might want to argue some nonsense about transactions moving to other locations because of the unreliability of bitcoin's blockchain to have low fees, but fees have been pretty damned low.. and even in this calendar year the mempool cleared a lot  and we have been having a lot of blocks with single digit sats per vbyte that translates into very low fees of under $1 to send small transactions or even very large amounts of value for the same onchain transaction costs.  That is quite amazing when you think about the value of bitcoin being able to be transacted by anyone and to anyone around the world without being able to be stopped for such low onchain fees.  All you need is a wallet to be able to receive.. Surely getting bitcoin might be another story that may well involve having to go through third parties, unless any of us can find someone who already holds bitcoin to be able to receive bitcoin from the person who already has some of it.

[philipma1957]

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.

Let's go!

i purchased more.

i really would like to see a sharp move to

74 k maybe 65k

I would grab a hefty chumk

[JayJuanGee]

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.
Let's go!

i purchased more.
i really would like to see a sharp move to

74 k maybe 65k
I would grab a hefty chumk

It probably is not healthy for a long term bitcoiner to be cheering for downity, when we have already had 25% downity (around these here prices) and we even had 30% downity if you count our correction down to $76.6k from nearly a month ago.  

You haven't had enough downity yet?  

Your desire for MOAR downity likely reflects that you are sitting on way too much cash, but what else is new when it comes to uie pooie?  

You seem to almost always be sitting on too much cash..  

Perhaps, the life of a trader, rather than one of an investor?   Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Edited: broke up into segments and added a few clarifications of ideas

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

https://monkeys.zip/

[xhomerx10]

https://monkeys.zip/

 Nice!

[philipma1957]

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.
Let's go!

i purchased more.
i really would like to see a sharp move to

74 k maybe 65k
I would grab a hefty chumk

It probably is not healthy for a long term bitcoiner to be cheering for downity, when we have already had 25% downity (around these here prices) and we even had 30% downity if you count our correction down to $76.6k from nearly a month ago.  

You haven't had enough downity yet?  

Your desire for MOAR downity likely reflects that you are sitting on way too much cash, but what else is new when it comes to uie pooie?  

You seem to almost always be sitting on too much cash..  

Perhaps, the life of a trader, rather than one of an investor?   Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Edited: broke up into segments and added a few clarifications of ideas

cash is fine.

i do not mind having too much of it.

[Gachapin]

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.
Let's go!

i purchased more.
i really would like to see a sharp move to

74 k maybe 65k
I would grab a hefty chumk

It probably is not healthy for a long term bitcoiner to be cheering for downity, when we have already had 25% downity (around these here prices) and we even had 30% downity if you count our correction down to $76.6k from nearly a month ago.  

You haven't had enough downity yet?  

Your desire for MOAR downity likely reflects that you are sitting on way too much cash, but what else is new when it comes to uie pooie?  

You seem to almost always be sitting on too much cash..  

Perhaps, the life of a trader, rather than one of an investor?   Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Edited: broke up into segments and added a few clarifications of ideas

cash is fine.

i do not mind having too much of it.

that's why you are buying Bitcoin now instead of 2012, I guess ?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Final bottom reached.

Nobody Mindrusted.
Let's go!

i purchased more.
i really would like to see a sharp move to

74 k maybe 65k
I would grab a hefty chumk

It probably is not healthy for a long term bitcoiner to be cheering for downity, when we have already had 25% downity (around these here prices) and we even had 30% downity if you count our correction down to $76.6k from nearly a month ago.  

You haven't had enough downity yet?  

Your desire for MOAR downity likely reflects that you are sitting on way too much cash, but what else is new when it comes to uie pooie?  

You seem to almost always be sitting on too much cash..  

Perhaps, the life of a trader, rather than one of an investor?   Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Edited: broke up into segments and added a few clarifications of ideas

cash is fine.

i do not mind having too much of it.

that's why you are buying Bitcoin now instead of 2012, I guess ?

Dude, don't rub it in  

That said, being fully invested is a hassle when you want to buy something else as an investment (unless you sell another asset)...every purchase essentially becomes a DCA.
Having an investable cash excess (or cash flow) is of a paramount importance to get into new investment opportunities.

Funny, though, every time I think that I would have an excess cash flow for a while, something always comes up: renovations, improvements, etc, etc.
Picture a hamster on a wheel...the faster he runs, the faster the wheel spins.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Richy_T]

Even though you don't want to litigate the whole block size war, you still want to argue that the blocksize needs to increase in order to facilitate bitcoin transactions...and I see no real reason to add to what I already said.. it is not like I have anything more to say except maybe to just repeat that the problem and/or the solution is not as non-controversial as you are making it seem to be, with your ongoing insistence on wanting to change bitcoin in the direction of BIGGER blocks and your continuing to believe that bitcoin transactions would be improved from that kind of a change...

*sigh* you always do this. What I want is not the issue. I am describing why things are how they are. What people wish to take away from it is up to them. I agree with you, in fact. The Bitcoin community, for however that is constituted, took Bitcoin in the direction of store of value rather than electronic cash. That, ultimately, has consequences. That you may or may not like those consequences has little bearing on the truth of the matter. Whether changing things one way or the other is easy or hard, controversial or not, likewise has no bearing. It is simply a B follows A kind of statement.

and even in this calendar year the mempool cleared a lot  and we have been having a lot of blocks with single digit sats per vbyte that translates into very low fees of under $1 to send small transactions or even very large amounts of value for the same onchain transaction costs.

The OP was asking why no one was using Bitcoin and your boast is that interest in using Bitcoin is so low that even with quite small blocks, fees are quite low? Do youee-pooey see the issue there? Though I would disagree that $1 is low and being that high eliminates whole swathes of possible transactions. Still, it's a little bit better than the unpredictable $20s we were seeing, I suppose. Of course, god forbid that interest picks up again.