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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26953598 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
Biodom
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May 06, 2025, 05:21:08 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (7), LFC_Bitcoin (5), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1)

The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.

Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.

It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.

That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.
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May 06, 2025, 05:26:12 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (13), LFC_Bitcoin (8), fillippone (3), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/new-hampshire-law-creates-first-state-strategic-bitcoin-reserve
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May 06, 2025, 05:34:49 PM

The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.

Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.

It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.

That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.

That's pretty mindboggling to me as well. It's pretty useless for the spot prices when the big players buy via OTC.
Spot price seems to be driven by retail mostly, but retail is lacking the volume that the biggos provide. They will be the big winners in this dirty game, i fear.
Didn't Bob post a few months ago that institutions are begging OGs to sell some corn, so that the spot price won't be affected?
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May 06, 2025, 05:53:28 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)

To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
This would make little sense, as the futures are more expensive in normal conditions (contango, positive funding rate).

Quote
Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.
OTC buys might explain that. And yes, I do get news of exchanges looking for possible OTC sellers. The trick for OGs is not to sell at market rates, but ask for a premium. "Or tell the buyer to go buy on the orderbook!"
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May 06, 2025, 06:01:18 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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May 06, 2025, 06:10:52 PM

Global M2 suggests $190,000 in August.

My body is fu**ing ready.


@ColinTCrypto
Global M2 Money Supply vs BTC

Global M2 makes another new ATH! The surge continues.

The BTC price is tracking nicely at an 86-day offset currently.

Look at what lies ahead. 👀💪🚀

https://x.com/colintcrypto/status/1919757151322476721

Lol,

What the hell...

Like the updates you share. I was initially right after seeing this, but I was shocked to see this prediction. It doesn't seem reasonable just by making predictions. It's better not to make such predictions and not to spread propaganda. I don't think the price of Bitcoin will go down that much so soon.
LFC_Bitcoin
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May 06, 2025, 06:16:41 PM

I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.

That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.

Yeah, no chance on 450k - 850k this year.

Show me where to sign for anything over 150k though.
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May 06, 2025, 06:24:20 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (5), philipma1957 (3), JayJuanGee (1), jojo69 (1)

I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.

That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.

Yeah, no chance on 450k - 850k this year.

Show me where to sign for anything over 150k though.



Here, please.
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May 06, 2025, 06:37:37 PM

The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.

Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.

It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.

That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.

cycles are done.  we are in the age of pope to be trump.
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May 06, 2025, 06:38:27 PM
Merited by OgNasty (1), vapourminer (1)


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May 06, 2025, 06:40:23 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5)


Was just coming here to post this news. Congratulations to New Hampshire on not having a retarded Governor. I mean, congrats for the first state Bitcoin reserve. You beat out Arizona based on our Governor being corrupt and trying to hold out for more bribe money. You deserve it. State Strategic Reserve!
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May 06, 2025, 06:46:15 PM


Was just coming here to post this news. Congratulations to New Hampshire on not having a retarded Governor. I mean, congrats for the first state Bitcoin reserve. You beat out Arizona based on our Governor being corrupt and trying to hold out for more bribe money. You deserve it. State Strategic Reserve!

yeah I will merge my double post when i get home as the tiny ipad I am on sucks for post merging.


it is nice to see one state is in the real game.

49 to go

along with

Puerto Rico

Wash D.C.

Canada
Greenland
and panama canal zone will belong to USA.🇺🇸 and only take btc to let your ship 🛳️ pass through.


Or Pope Trump begins end of times and oh well.
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May 06, 2025, 06:49:20 PM
Last edit: May 06, 2025, 07:49:11 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (2), _Hiloveua_ (1)

Boring weekend of price action. Hopefully it’s the calm before the storm. Maybe we have one little dip to successfully retest $90,000 but I really hope and actually expect to see upwards price trajectory soon.

This is not a joke any more, sub $100,000 Bitcoin is stupidly cheap. We are entering May now, I want to see a significant move soon.
Let's see Bitcoin price on the current day bar chart that gives us very good overview and also comparison of Bitcoin prices on a same day over different years.

It is damn helpful for us to see Bitcoin solid parabolic growth with years.
https://charts.bitbo.io/price-current-date/

Interesting, the price was low in 2023. I don't remember what happened inthis year which made the price reach this low number but now since we are not going to see any bad dayslike this due or covid or any other bad news I think the next year in 2026 we can expextto see much higher prices like 200 or 250K however if you ask me I like to see the price goes lower than this because I couldn't enough bitcoins so far and currently looking for a chance to buy dip.
In another theory, we also have bitcoin halving in the next three years, which can definitely affect the price of bitcoin in 2026.

Sure it is interesting to look at a chart to see where the BTC price was at during any particular day and then to look at that over 16 years, yet at the same time, you should not be drawing too much significance for merely where the BTC price happened to be on any one particular day.

You also should not necessarily limit your own analysis to where the BTC price was at any particular day when there is plenty of information to provide you with context regarding where the BTC price was at befor and after the date in question - in which you pointed out 2023 to have had been significant in your assessment of just that chart and proclaiming your own willful ingornance to emphasize that you do not know what was going on around that time to cause such 2023 price.

BERNSTEIN SAYS PUBLIC COMPANIES COULD ALLOCATE UP TO $330B TO $BTC TREASURIES OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

So more cash will flow in BTC, let's rockzzz guys

Link or it did not happen.

A very strange year so far...
I am still expecting 210K, though.

If we focus ONLY on bitcoin, the year has not been that strange.

We came into 2025 with a Trump pump that brought the BTC price up right around 60% in slightly more than 2 months (perhaps 10 weeks).  Then we got a correction back down, which we did not even go all the way back down to the $69k-ish starting point.

We had a similar thing in 2019, yet that was BIGGER to go from $4,200-ish and then up to $13,880 in three months, and then we did not come all the way back down.. but close to it.. and surely we may well would have had continued up in 2020, even though many folks may well consider the March 2020 correction as a bit of an aberration... which truly did not end up really negatively affecting bitcoin's price trajectory for the 2021 pump, even though other factors likely ended up screwing bitcoin's 2021 pump, and I doubt that we can proclaim that the 2021 lack of pump was really only a few factors, but instead a bunch of different explanations that may well be incomplete in and of themselves, but they still can add up to a story that we can tell to explain bitcoin price dyanmics for that time period after the fact.

We seem to be drifting down.  What's up with that?  Is the market drunk for Cinco de Mayo?  

We had a couple of weeks of drifting up from mid-to-lower $80ks to our mid-ish $90ks, so what is so unusual about having some drift back down (whether temporary or not?)?

We also could proclaim that the drift up had taken place over a month.. so in that sense we would measure from the $74,434 low from April 6, so then around a $20k drift up happened over a whole month, who might not expect a possible pausening (sure it does not have to happen) to take place during such $20k uppity drift?

While I'll admit I don't like the uncertainty that seems to be hovering over the market right now, there is so much bullish activity going on behind the scenes it is hard to not keep the faith.  

The BTC price went up from $74k to mid-$90ks and there was still uncertainties in the macro-markets during that upward's drift.  

I just hope the government actually does buy BTC and we aren't all being gaslit for exit liquidity right now.  Eric Trump going hard into Ethereum right before it cratered wasn't the most inspiring event.  Hopefully we don't see something similar with his father and Bitcoin.  Still, I think we see $170K this year and that is being conservative from how I feel.

Funny about the shitcoiner stuff.  Hahahahaha.. what a bunch of retarded grifters.  sometimes grifting works, and sometimes it does not. They should keep their eyes on the prize rather than getting distracted.  It is nice to see the ethereum talking points failing to revive that crappy project that likely did not deserve as much attention and/or capital that it had been receiving, and in the ethereum camp, there are still a decent number of them still throwing money at that crap hoping for a bounce.. a lot of shitcoiners deservingly getting reckt...and sure I have no fucking clue if it might bounce, even though it never really made a whole lot of sense to me, except that it has always been a decently good (easy) place for scammers to scam, yet there have developed quite a large number of viable competitors that are springing up to take away their monopoly that had been largely built on false narratives in the first place.

We seem to be drifting down.  What's up with that?  Is the market drunk for Cinco de Mayo?  While I'll admit I don't like the uncertainty that seems to be hovering over the market right now, there is so much bullish activity going on behind the scenes it is hard to not keep the faith.  I just hope the government actually does buy BTC and we aren't all being gaslit for exit liquidity right now.  Eric Trump going hard into Ethereum right before it cratered wasn't the most inspiring event.  Hopefully we don't see something similar with his father and Bitcoin.  Still, I think we see $170K this year and that is being conservative from how I feel.
I would love to see that. 170k. I would be fine with even 120K being the top for 2025.

Sure, we would be fine, but $120k seems quite amazingly small... even though in my own expectations, I had been thinking that somewhere in the range of $120k to $180k would be the top in 2024, and then we would get somewhere in the supra $230ks for our 2025 top... Yeah, it is hard to know whether anything related to my initial thoughts are still in play, just delayed.. and surely I would not exclude the possibility of BIGGER numbers that would either get to or exceed (perhaps temporarily) gold's market cap for this cycle, but those are seeming like quite minority scenarios that might ONLY land in sub 5% probability territories.

Don't get me wrong, since I hate to really presume up, so even expecting more than 10% per year beyond our already existing high points seems like overly presumptuous, yet we know that historically bitcoin has been doing something like 60% per year since 2013/2014, yet we cannot take those numbers for granted, even though they continue to play out. .but from my perspective, we cannot take them as a given even though at the same time we should have systems in place that we are prepared for them in case they end up happening.

Many of us already recognize/appreciate that there are prudent and reasonable ways to prepare our lil selfies for asymmetric bets to the upside, which is part of the reason that several of us have hung in there by mostly erroring on the side of accumulating BTC and/or HODLing it for a cycle or two or even more... not always easy to accomplish.. but still has been greatly rewarding, even if experiencing some stresses along the way.. (LFC.. cough, cough.. hahahahahahaha.. I remember Bawb also used to be like that.. though he has not been saying too much during this cycle)
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May 06, 2025, 07:01:16 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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May 06, 2025, 08:07:24 PM

To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.
This would make little sense, as the futures are more expensive in normal conditions (contango, positive funding rate).


it depends:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/basis-trading.asp

Quote
The speculator who takes the opposite side of this trade will have purchased futures contracts for 25 cents per bushel higher than the spot price (the basis). If that speculator hedged their bet by selling contracts at the spot price ($4.00 per bushel), they would now have a position that is long the basis.
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May 06, 2025, 08:10:46 PM

The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.

Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.

It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.

That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.

cycles are done.  we are in the age of pope to be trump.

quoting this to preserve this opinion  Wink
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May 06, 2025, 08:24:52 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

The liquidity charts vs bitcoin are good for hopium, but so far bitcoin did absolutely nothing in 2025.
"Everybody" seem to be buying, but the price is not moving.
To me, this indicates a gigantic "base" trade that is preventing btc from moving up: hedge funds are shorting spot and buying futures.
Who knows, maybe Blackrock is lending them btc to short..maybe Saylor does the same, but unlikely.

Otherwise the current picture does not make sense: a gigantic buying, vastly exceeding miner supply, price not moving.

It probably changes after the interest rate reduction in June, but who knows.
I am OK with 94K for now, but it's not really the same bull market that I remember from the prior cycles.

That said, 210K is still the target, albeit people are still musing 450-850K as well.

cycles are done.  we are in the age of pope to be trump.

quoting this to preserve this opinion  Wink


I got more where that came from.
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May 06, 2025, 08:31:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Gents,
If you are reading this, you probably frontran a nation State.
It is something you can write on your tombstone.


Here lies fillippone.
He frontran Blackrock an many Nation States”.
Fucking legend.

“Here lies fillippone, beloved human being.
Died at 104 years, taking care of his 22 years old wife.
He frontran Blackrock an many Nation States”.
Fucking legend.
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May 06, 2025, 09:01:19 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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