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September 04, 2025, 12:29:28 PM *
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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26835219 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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September 01, 2025, 11:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
promise444c5
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September 01, 2025, 11:09:20 PM


..
You’re not cygan.. are you?

~

I would be 83 and even if a btc is 10 or 20 million

I would still be 83.

I can honestly say i am in okay shape at 68.
So the 1957 weren’t just made up..
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September 01, 2025, 11:09:50 PM

Do you think that our odds for further down in September might be lessened if August had started out around $113k and ended slightly below $108k (something in the ballpark of a 4.5% drop)?  
Theoretically it could be easier for September to end up from $108k, even though sure we have right around 14% in total to make up for if we want to get to another ATH, to the extent another ATH is still in the cards for September, October or perhaps later this calendar year (referring to 2025)?, but yeah we should not necessarily start counting our chickens too prematurely.

AKA I have no idea about the shorter term.

( I wrote a whole lot about stable coins and the USD, but meh... )
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September 01, 2025, 11:25:55 PM

we only had a 13% correction from the ATH... that's actually quite bullish imo
quiet I was able to get 1000's of dollars during august dips.
We do not want people catching on.

Maybe I will finally be prepared for up .
{hint not yet}
June      0.022895
July       0.010436
August   0.023510
Total dip  0.056841

and dca mining 92x.00103=0.0948
so I added 0.151641 in 90 days.
also some small ladder buys on kraken

0.00455  added on kraken
So just about 0.156 in 92 days
been a good summer.

Part of your calculation problem seems to be that your "ins" are not without encumbrances, so the mined coins are not pure profits.  They have capital costs and electricity costs.  

It is also different if you are bringing new money into bitcoin to build it and to keep it in bitcoin for a relatively long period versus if you ar just moving money around from one place to another, so for example if you had bought copper or whatever in 2022 then you sold the copper to buy bitcoin in 2025 (your recent buys), those kind of numbers are not without their baggage.  

I hate to be a party poop, and maybe this time your BTC hold period might have more meaning, even though I doubt it.  I doubt that you would still have much if any of those 0.156-ish BTC if BTC prices were to reach and/or exceed $200k-ish.

I am pretty sure that BTCETFInvestor would have loved to have had his own day like that.. . .yet he is a bit of an ambiguous character in this whole scene.. which almost causes me to speculate that he might be engaging in his various drama pieces on purpose.
You should treat a Guest better than that! You know you were wrong to jump on the bandwagon. Don't you think?  

You are not a guest.  You are a participant in the conversation who went overboard in his vagueness and then in his proofs.

Surely there wee guys who were largely sympathetic to your situation until you continue to dig yourself in deeper - which you seem to be inclined to continue to dig rather than apologizing for your problematic posts and your seemingly ongoing desires to battle and to proclaim yourself as some kind of a supposed victim.

Which part are you wanting to continue to battle about?  My behaviors?  I am a meanie sometimes.  What more do you want to get out of me?  What do you want to get from this thread?  Weren't you throwing out insults, describing yourself as a victim and proclaiming that several of us (including yours truly) was out to get you?  Several of us, including this here guy, have already responded to those accusations.  It seems that several guys have even been giving you several suggestions regarding how to proceed, but you seem to have some challenges in your own abilities to move on or even to fix yourself from aspects of your posting style.

None of us have even negatively (or neutrally) marked your trust yet, so you might count your blessings while they still exist, even though some members had already mentioned it or at least hinted at such a possible outcome.

So maybe the more important and/or imminent question might not be so much about me, yet it might concern how you might be able to save yourself from yourself.

I am pretty sure that BTCETFInvestor would have loved to have had his own day like that.. . .yet he is a bit of an ambiguous character in this whole scene.. which almost causes me to speculate that he might be engaging in his various drama pieces on purpose.
You should treat a Guest better than that! You know you were wrong to jump on the bandwagon. Don't you think?  
Last comment I am going to make on this: I have never looked into a person's post history. But now that I did, I don't know why I decided to even tried to white knight for him. All previous advice still stands; I just feel like I was yelling at the wall...

Usually the ones who get themselves in trouble are stubborn like that.

Again, off topic... But with the current price action, does anyone know how long the M2 correlation theory will last? As the goalposts seem to keep moving back and forth. I am not even sure of an "exit plan" anymore, as I have only sold enough to cover my very basic lifestyle. But the plan always was when the time comes, try to shave off some to divest and hedge some of my gains. That being said, everything else looks so much worse in comparison... I learned my lesson trading alts in 2017 (still swallowing that pill), so I'm not looking to do that again (fool me once...you know).

You are trying to catch the top?  That can be problematic.

Of course, I consider price based sustainable withdrawal to likely be able to kick in prior to time-based sustainable withdrawal (I talk about both strategies in my sustainable withdrawal thread), yet you still need to be in overaccumulation status for either of them, so then if you start to sell, you are not necessarily selling with expectations to buy back cheaper... since that would be trading/gambling rather than investing..

So if you have not quite made it to overaccumulation status yet, then you have more dilemmas to ride matters out.. once more cycle or whatever.

That being said, we're getting to the point where my supposed.63 bitcoin is borderline life-changing money, so why not shave off a bit to lock in profits?

Nothing wrong with that.  Why should you feel bad if you have some kind of a tier in which you shave off something in the ballpark of 10% every time the price doubles, and if you cannot wait for doubling intervals then just shave off 1% every 10% rise or some other variation?

If you have enough or more than enough BTC then you should be able to accomplish price based sustainable withdrawal.

If you con't want to wait for the price, then just do time based sustainable withdrawals, so that if you were to happen to have 0.63 BTC right now, then you could shave off right around $3,279 per year or $273 per month with right around 7% per year increases.  That would be time based sustainable withdrawal.

But to what the dollar looks so bad? Also, buying more strategy seems counterproductive... I feel I have finally gotten to a point that if I sell and can never buy back cheaper, I would be happy (we are way past Adams's 32k #). But then what do you do with all this dirty fiat??? Watch it lose value???

You don't need to sell with purposes of buying back cheaper, especially with sustainable withdrawal, and if you sell so much that you are sitting on a bunch of extra cash, then there might be something wrong with your selling formula.

You are not really describing anything that suggests any rush to sell except that you might not want to go through a long and extended dip, but you don't think that it will dip from here but instead dip in the future.  So then if it dips in the future you want to have some cash to either buy back or just be able to spend.

I mean, it's a great dilemma to have, but one I really need to figure out sooner than later. Or cry about another full bear, which I am not sure if I can handle.

Now you are sounding overinvested.

Why can't you just figure out some kinds of price points that you are willing to sell some but not necessarily big chunks, so then it will make you feel better for having had sold some... going back to the selling 10% for every doubling formula.

It's been so long that it kind of doesn't even seem real anymore... But it definitely has real-world consequences.

You mean that you did most of your accumulating years back, so then you have not done anything for a while, neither bought nor sold.

I tend to think that if guys go through accumulation, then there might be a period of maintenance where they are not really selling and they are not really buying, so then once they go through the maintenance stage, then they can start to sell small amounts here and there and when you need it, so if you are not selling in really large chunks, you should be able to sell forever in such a system.  Part of the issue is crossing the chasm of getting to the point of having enough and then clearly being in a place of having more than enough.. which once you have crossed the chasm, then you should be able to sell within the overaccumulation status without falling back below being in such overaccumulation status.
 
Again, it's a wonderful position to be in, and I am grateful for it, but it definitely doesn't make anything any easier. I try to live life normally, pretending it's not there, but at some point we all have to live a little, right? I feel like this month is going to be the hardest yet...
 All that being said, I fully believe that the Number goes up forever (at least longer than I will be alive). This really is one of the only things I like about our current timeline we all have to endure!!!
K

Not everyone is in the same status, since some guys seem to have already crossed over.. yet of course, no one really wants to sell a bunch right before it goes up and yeah we would not want to sell at the bottom either, even if we have enough and/or more than enough.. which yeah, maybe never goes away when we are living within one of the greatest wealth transfers known to mankind and we would rather be on the receiving end of that rather than being on the giving side of that great transfer.
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September 01, 2025, 11:25:56 PM

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K

retiring early is the greatest luxury there is.

I dont need a big house or an expensive car. But I want to Quit my job in the next few years while I am still young

Strangely, I never wanted to quit any job..hey, maybe I should make them fire me so I can retire Smiley
That said, some people take relative idleness in spades...going to gym daily, picking up new hobbies, volunteering, etc.
Somehow, for me, a regular job gives more structure to a daily life.


I think it depends on what kind of job you have and how much time you spend there.

I love to practice sports and do outdoor activities, for example. My job forces me to be stuck in there from 9 AM to 18PM, so I basically can't do anything else. My job literally destroys my routine.

However, since 2020, I am allowed to work from home 2-3 times a week, which makes things way better. This is why I haven't quit it yet.
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September 01, 2025, 11:44:38 PM


oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?
Not even clothes left!

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September 01, 2025, 11:45:23 PM


oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?

Yeah

I have fiat to pay my mining power bill until next august

and I have 7000 extra cash.

plus literally tons of copper to sell

and kilos of silver to sell.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5556792.0

I believe my price for those silver coins is the best price in the entire world

In fact I am fairly certain it is well under the ebay price.  Maybe 8000 plus taxes say 8500 is the true price on ebay

Well under the cull price 2800+1790+2910 =7500 on ebay for culls mine are better than culls

and well under the melt price.  7350 for melt






My issue is pacing my buys more than anything else.


and by the way 106k dec 2024 to 109k sept 2025

with a dip to 74 k  with a pair of rises to 120k

look really fucking sideways to me. JJG
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September 01, 2025, 11:55:37 PM
Merited by fillippone (3)

Aurora update.

 Visuals in Norway but most of Europe saw nothing so far.  
The peak is estimated to be 0600 to 0900 GMT (sun will obscure viewing in Europe) but good news for North America.  West coast viewers should be able to see the auroras between 11pm and 2am PT (GMT -8) obvisouly a bit later in central time zones and in the east... 2am to 5am
New Zealand that would be 6pm to 9pm (with sunset happening between 6pm and 7pm you could be in for a show as well)
Good luck
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September 01, 2025, 11:59:35 PM


oh have to go buy some more dip buddy is tanking price again

Buy the dip with what? You guys have fiat left?
Not even clothes left!



 Based on that skin tone, I would say you have sunscreen you can sell to buy more coin!
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September 02, 2025, 12:01:16 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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September 02, 2025, 01:01:14 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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September 02, 2025, 01:26:09 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)

But then what do you do with all this dirty fiat??? Watch it lose value??? I mean, it's a great dilemma to have, but one I really need to figure out sooner than later.

Convert it to Bitcoin.

I am lucky enough to have pulled that plug in 2017. I left my "work"/"career" and never looked back!!! decades before I was told that I was possibly going to be able to.

Congratulations and welcome to the free world.

I've been job-free since 1976. It's one of the best decisions I've made in my life. Thank you Timothy Leary. Turn on, tune in, drop out.
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September 02, 2025, 01:26:41 AM
Merited by fillippone (3), vapourminer (1)

[edited out]
I have a sell ladder all the way to 303k
but it is not much of the hodl.

I only do the sell ladder to say I sold some at or near the top.
But I am still not where I want to be. In terms of stack

I am not opposed to any of that, yet I suspect that the ONLY reason that you only have sell ladders up to $303k is because you are likely to be out or nearly out of bitcoin by that time, if we were to get there.. . let's say, no more than 25% of your current stash would still be remaining, when you probably should have something close to or more than 50% of your current stash...

But hey.. you are doing better than I had imagined (in my head) what you were doing.

For myself.. yeah I could sell 5% to 10% and that would be good.. even though like I said, I am only set up to sell about 3% up to $500k-ish.. . which is maybe a bit extreme in the other direction... the non-selling direction.. but it still feels good to have those orders set up in order to plan to sell 3%-ish between here and $500k if we were to get there.. and $500k would really only be right around 4.5x from her ($4109k).. That is not totally outrageous for a pump as long as maybe it were to take a whole 9-ish months (baby germination time) to play out.

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K

I am having a bit of a dilemma also in regards to figuring out things to spend money on, yet, I still don't see why you are considering it to be such a great dilemma to just figure out some sell formula and then to otherwise just let it ride (meaning the bitcoin).

I am not totally poo-pooing you, since almost every cycle, after the price drops 50% to 70% or more, I start to ponder that I could have had sold a bit more, and so I end up making some adjustments, but I never end up adjusting it as high as I probably should.. . yet I also try to own whatever choice that I make, even if no matter which way the price goes, there can be feelings of "I should have done "y" instead of "x"  "X" makes no sense in retrospect, even though it made sense when I chose "X."  Right now, "y" is seeming like it would have had been a good thing to do.

From my perspective, it get the sense that you will feel a lot better once you figure out some kind of a selling on the way up formula, and let's say that you currently have 10 BTC (I know you said 0.63.. yet 10 is a easier number to fantasize about, and it is a somewhat round number too)..

You figure out some price point that you call your first doubling.. whether that is $150k or $200k or whatever (and don't pick exactly a round number, and let's say that your  first one is at $200k.., so you shave off 10%, which would be 1 BTC.

Let's say that you don't like the idea of shaving off a whole 1 BTC at one price point like that, so instead, you set yourself up to sell 0.1 BTC at each of $10k price points between $160k, $170k, $180k, $190k, $200k, $210k, $220k, $230k, $240k and $250k... again.. not placing your sell orders exactly at round numbers and you could pick smaller amounts and start doing such a thing right now at current prices.. perhaps having your first sell at $114k and the next one at $118k and the next one at $123k etc etc.. whatever numbers and amounts you want within a kind of formula, and if you down the road you start to believe that maybe you are accumulating way too many dollars from all of your sales, then you can reduce your sales amounts (quantities of BTC) and/or increments between each of your sell points.

If you don't like 10% sales for every doubling of the BTC price, then pick 5% or 3% or whatever makes you feel MOAR better. 

It is harder to think about the whole matter and figure it out some plan, but once you do figure it out and put such plan into place, you will likely start to feel better, and maybe every once in a while you will have to adjust your plan to make your sell orders bigger or smaller because sometimes you might change in your feelings, and  if you accidentally sell too much then just buy those BTC back at some price that is comfortable for you.. and if they don't end up buying back then you just have that money sitting there waiting to buy them back and maybe at some point, you come across some reason to spend that money... just for shits and giggles you decide to splurge on some consumption good or some other investment or something that fancies your then interests. 

If you don't want to be bothered with $5K increments or even $10k increments, then set your increments for $20k increments or whatever brings you more comfort, and if your sell orders don't end up filling, then you can build that into your expectations of a set of events that might end up playing out.

Sometimes I have sell order that I put into place several years earlier, and then don't fill.. My sell orders from 2017 initially went up to $1k and then I had to increase them to $2k and then $5k and then finally, they had ended up going all the way up to something like $35k, but they did not get filled for several years.. and then in 2021 some of my sell orders ended up going up to $150k, even though some exchanges did not let me set orders higher than $100k (cough , cough  cough Binance), but then little by little they started to allow higher and higher sell orders to be established (as limited orders).

I used to keep more money on exchanges, but you can imagine if I really have sell orders up to $500k-ish, I ONLY have enough money to cover my orders on the exchanges, which some folks will even think it is better to do the BTC sales manually rather than setting up sell orders in advance... which surely is reasonable. and sometimes I do purposefully remove any of my additional BTC from exchanges so that I am trying to limit that kind of exposure... even though there can be some security precautions that can be taken... and anyone who maintains accounts with exchanges realizes that some exchanges have better security systems in place than others, and I had even had some of my accounts set up in a kind of special status, but sometimes the exchanges will also pull accounts and so there can be inconveniences to have to change accounts since they might not even say why they are doing it, but they tend to give time to withdraw, but sometimes the notices are not very clear (or received).

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K
retiring early is the greatest luxury there is.

I dont need a big house or an expensive car. But I want to Quit my job in the next few years while I am still young

I think that many of us have likely come accross statistics that most people  do not save and/or invest, so if you get people investing anywhere in the ballpark of 10% of their income, then it still is going to take them 10 years to have had invested 1 years worth of income into their investment.

My frequent point is that if you can invest more aggressively that 10%, even as great as 25% or greater, then with a 25% investment rate, you get 1 year's of your income into your investment in 4 years.  The more you get into your investment (in bitcoin in this case), then the more that amount invested can work for you, which surely it still can take some time to really get it to a point that you can start to live off of it without depleting the principe.  Accordingly, bitcoin seems to be amongst the best of places to get to such a status that you can start to withdraw from it, whether at your income rate or at some higher or lower rate.

It is almost too good to be true.. like "we" are living in a dream... which yeah, sometimes we don't necessarily want to buy anything too flashy to draw attention to ourselves, yet at the same time, it could become quite tempting.

 I am lucky enough to have pulled that plug in 2017. I left my "work"/"career" and never looked back!!! decades before I was told that I was possibly going to be able to... Again, I am not greedy, and the .63 I may or may not have will cover me till I am long ded!

That surely is a sign of overaccumulatoin status if you have figured out the amount that you have and then you figured out your expenses, so you are already able to get started.

i think that many of us continue to either build our bitcoin or to just let it ride based on our having other income sources, and I have been using bitcoin to supplement since about 2016, yet whatever supplement I had been taking is way less than what I need to live since I draw (and spend) from inferior sources before spending from bitcoin.  There can also be ways of drawing from other funds and/or creating other income sources, and I did that too.. so that the various income sources add up and they end up causing me to not to have to spend from my bitcoin since I spend from those first... Yet I do think that I have been trying to spend more and more from my bitcoin and/or to exhaust from my other sources so that I can spend from my bitcoin.  There still are needs to figure out ways to spend within my own sensibilities and my own comfort level..

The real mind fook is that even though percentage-wise it's just more of the same, doing nothing has inevitably been the best thing I could have done... So why is it so hard to just continue to follow the course??? The corn is still the same; I have actually decreased it over the years... but what that corn can do is beyond my wildest dreams... I can't begin to comprehend what it will be able to do in another 10...
CCMF
K

I sometimes have to look back at old records to try to figure out the extent to which my BTC stash is depleting, and surely I had past projections of where I would be at certain times and/or upon the bitcoin reaching certain prices, and there are ways that the stash has shrunk but also ways in which it has not shrunk as much as the earlier projections had anticipated that it would be at certain price points. There can be some gamification in looking at some of the matters.. because in some sense, even for me, I had some projections that would go several times higher than the current price, yet the further out the numbers, the more of a ballpark figure it seemed to have had been, but it is surprising that real world numbers seem to be doing better than the projections, which maybe a reflection of my own attempts to not overly promise myself... it comes from the underpromise and overdeliver framework so that any of us who project in conservative ways, we are likely going to end up in a better place than we had projected ourself to get to.
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September 02, 2025, 01:28:18 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), philipma1957 (1), JayJuanGee (1)

By the way jbreher, recently I had mentioned you as a guy who seemed to be having difficulties with unit bias, so hopefully you have recently gotten over gifting bitcoin in 1 coin increments.  

I stopped gifting in 1 BTC increments when the $USD value of 1 BTC exceeded the IRS nontaxable gift maximums.
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September 02, 2025, 02:01:13 AM


Explanation
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September 02, 2025, 02:29:51 AM

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K
retiring early is the greatest luxury there is.

I dont need a big house or an expensive car. But I want to Quit my job in the next few years while I am still young
Strangely, I never wanted to quit any job..hey, maybe I should make them fire me so I can retire Smiley
That said, some people take relative idleness in spades...going to gym daily, picking up new hobbies, volunteering, etc.
Somehow, for me, a regular job gives more structure to a daily life.

Part of the "problem" in bitcoin, if we can call it a "problem" is that we ended up winning the lottery, especially if we errored on the side of accumulating and holding... even the whimpy ones still ended up winning the lottery as long as they did not sell.

I don't completely disagree with you, since there can be some jobs that create a considerable amount of satisfaction and even self-direction and/or a sense of belonging on a team - especially if you agree with the missions of the team and you feel that you are being treated fairly.

At the same time, winning the lottery does have to change the variables, especially if you had put in enough that you can pretty much replace all of your income, perhaps in multiples or even magnitudes.

We should not be generalizing about any job having possible issues in regards to causing us to believe that our energies could be focused elsewhere.

Doesn't that sound a bit strange to you?  You are selling while are still accumulating.
And, sure maybe that will work for you since you are planning to sell with an expectation of being able to buy back more with the same money that you received from selling it.

Personally, I don't consider that to be a good strategy for guys who are still accumulating, even though I understand that guys do it and attempt to do it, and some of them are able to do o.k. with such a strategy and others would have had been better off to just stay focused on BTC accumulation.

You are taking chances, but it is possible that it could work out for you.  Perhaps.

Yet at the same time, if a guy is still in BTC accumulation phase, he is more assured to continue to increase his stash if he just stays focused on buying and perhaps to find money from other places when he wants to buy things.. . but yeah opinions will differ regarding these kinds of matters regarding the hows and the amounts to play with when trying to catch waves.
My humble submission is that in life we have necessities and it's up to you whether to full fill these necessities and live a good life or keep saving money. I need money for few things and I am glad that I have Bitcoin who helped me out. I told you I bought a new car just because my previous car was 16 years old and it's time to replace it. I recently installed solar system in my house and now I don't pay any electricity bill, my kids sleep in AC and don't have to worry about the electricity bill.

I can go for hodling but for that I have to make a compromise on these things.

I am not proclaiming that you should not increase your standard of living - because for sure it can make sense to increase our standard of living as our wealth is going up.  I just question that if you are concededly in your BTC accumulation phase, it is hard for me to make out how it can be financially prudent to sell out of one hand and buy with the other... but yeah, apparently, you have figure out a way to make it work and to balance your situation...

So yeah, you can run the numbers yourself and see that you are both improving your standard of living but you are also drawing from your BTC and causing it to not compound upon itself and also causing the stash that you build to be way smaller than what it otherwise would have been, even though you are increasing your standard of living along the way.

We have a lot of examples of folks who did all kinds of amazing things with their bitcoin over the years, and for sure the longer that time runs, the greater the measured differences, and sure, it could be that you did the thing that was best for you and for your family.. That is what you are supposed to do... yet there are all kinds of people who spent 100s of bitcoin on houses in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and these days their houses might have gone from $300k to $1.2 million (2x to 5x appreciation in price), but the bitcoin that they used (or could have had bought) went up 100x or more.  They still feel good about what they did.

Similar is true if you bought a car and solar panels and various matters... and yeah it is up to you to do the calculations, and sure, it could well be the case that you had no other options, except to use your bitcoin.

Your timeline is not as long, and sure in some ways I have been warming up to the idea of overinvesting into bitcoin and then using some of the profits from the overinvestment as a way to prematurely shave off some profits.

In the end, you are the one who has the numbers and were able to weigh your options whether it was the right way to do it or not.. but yeah, maybe it ended up working out for you that you put a certain extra into bitcoin and cashed out at various points along the way in order to pay for expenses and/or needs while you continue to accumulate bitcoin... like you caught one of the waves and you did not really have any other options available.

It also might be too close in time for you to do a real comparative analysis in regards to options that you had available versus the option that you took and the consequences that were available.

Even with myself there have been times where I did not really realize the impact of what I did until much further down the road... .

That's just it. I have been telling myself every cycle I am going to shave some off.... But the only viable option I can come up with is to "buy more." I am not greedy at all; I have no real responsibilities, no need for a bigger house or nicer car. And you can only buy so much Hookers and Blow... Now what??? As I am really not interested in trying to take over the world... Pinky and the Brain style...What else is there to do???
K
Go and get married and that's it. You're done. Cheesy

Permanent Bear market.
NNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO THANKYOU!!!!

It is your duty.

Sometimes there is value in "sharing."  Don't shirk your duties, expecially now that you know that you are in overaccumulation status and you have the dilemma of making sure that you spend enough.


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
124.5 to 109.2

is -12.289%
so do we go up say 109.2 to  136.04%$136.04
that would be +12.289% of the ATH

You gotta zoom out a bit, Phil.

A lot of this is just short-term noise.

Quite likely we are going much further than $136.04, and I doubt that there is any kind of exact pattern even if we might be able to see a pattern when we look in retrospect... .. and i don't even see much value in figuring out the size of various waves that may or may not come.. yeah, we likely have good ideas that up is not over, yet, and we also have ideas that up does not tend to happen without downs, even though historically we have had some periods of ups without downs... yet we cannot count on it, so why try to act like we can figure it  out, rather than just going with the flow.. we are still largely bouncing around at the top of the range since early May (ie top 100 days). and largely continuing to push higher numbers.

I thought about selling some, but then could not decide the "why" portion.
Converting btc to fiat feels a bit silly and I am in no need of a bigger house..at least, not yet.
One observation: the market feels a bit neurotic as far as the mood is concerned.
Maybe too much change (on the market and socially) is occurring too fast and the market has difficulty "digesting" the info properly.
Well, it's obvious - buying back later at a lower price. LFC_Bitcoin is my role model here. Apparently, the guy managed to sell near the top and buy back during bear, increasing his stash considerably.  Cool
Sure, I get the intent...it is the execution of BOTH trades at a correct time that is difficult to achieve.

Many sold at ATH+20-30% in 2017 only for btc to go up another 15X in just a few months.
I sold some back then too after listening to one Vinny Lindham about the presumable crash due to the first fork (all my fault, of course).
I had another small sell in 2020 after we recovered to 10K from $3.8K.
The logic back then: we are surely going into a depression as businesses are closing and unemployment is rising...recovery is just a temporary dead cat bounce, allegedly.

Thankfully, on both occasions I sold a little so it is not relevant in a big picture.

Those are some pretty painful disclosures Biodom... and surely sometimes the sell and buy back later ends up working, and it usually is not pretty.. Even LFC's situation in 2021/2022 is far from text book perfect, since LFC sold somewhere in the mid $50ks when it was going down, but it was not clearly going down because it was bouncing around his sales price for a while, so that we could call him names for a while, before it finally crashed down and he ended up being correct.

I thought about selling some, but then could not decide the "why" portion.
Converting btc to fiat feels a bit silly and I am in no need of a bigger house..at least, not yet.
One observation: the market feels a bit neurotic as far as the mood is concerned.
Maybe too much change (on the market and socially) is occurring too fast and the market has difficulty "digesting" the info properly.

Well, it's obvious - buying back later at a lower price. LFC_Bitcoin is my role model here. Apparently, the guy managed to sell near the top and buy back during bear, increasing his stash considerably.  Cool

I doubt LFC's buy back was the greatest either, and he made some purchases with the money, so yeah maybe he bought most of the BTC back in the $20ks and he might have still had some cash for buying some BTC below $20k too...

He might be able and/or willing to give some further details.. yet I doubt that the details are really pretty even though it did seem to work out fairly well. 

Yet LFC might not want to say anymore than he already said..  There have been some of us who have also had some lucky plays, yet there are ONLY so many details that we are ready to give and./or repeat to the extent that we might have had already given some of the details (or at least as many as we want to give within this context - even though sometimes we can have learning experiences too. .. which might be one of the reasons that it would be nice to get mindrust to come back  to the thread and reflect upon his March 2020 situation again and the fall out, too, even though mindrust seems to have become a bit more strident in recent times).
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September 02, 2025, 02:40:07 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1)

First off, thanks, Jay. I really appreciate you breaking it down like that...

My situation is a bit different than most. I have not bought any corn since before this account was created. I have never had a real job. The "" was because of that. From very early on, I was a hustler. I remember my first real hustle was in grade school, selling candy to the younger kids while giving away the profits to the older kids to get to ride at the back of the bus. I was also the product of a broken home and severe drug addictions. Statistically speaking, I should be under a bridge sucking dick for crack (a bad thing, as I am not into the peen). I was on my own at 14 and had to figure out how to pretend to be an adult and get all the things that adults did as a minor done.

 How I am not dead or in jail has always been a mystery to me. That being said, I saw and was a part of some of the very first real-world use cases of these cornz and I saw with my own 2 eyes that this magic internet money only used by illicit chemical vendors was in fact a complete replacement of almost everything I saw wrong with the current debt-driven system. I was lucky enough to live in a city where they had a pretty big (at the time) conference about BTC and was orangepilled early. And the more I looked into it the more I realized that this was the way out for me.

 I still remember sending in the postal money order to a stranger in another state and receiving my first cornz at a bit of a premium over spot. I was new and needed to at least get in on the game, so I waited patiently for the email with directions on how to claim my new purchase at 3.17 USD, I believe. I still have my alpaca socks!!! I was irresponsible, and I spent so much it almost makes me sick, but if we did not back in the day, we would not be where we are now. Never did I think we would actually get here.

 I don't consider myself rich in the sense of being some super multi-millionaire. I am not greedy. The one thing, though, none of us can buy is time... it's priceless. We can buy everything else... so in that regard, I don't regret any of the time I was able to harvest by selling a bit of these cornz. That being said, I do think I have set myself up to be able to get the most out of every day, hour, minute, or second I have left on this crazy place we call earth! It has been a reverse midlife crisis for me!

 As far as being overinvested... that's just it. I don't believe that is a term that works in my scenario, as I have been 100% all in for over a decade. I haven't been able to buy more, as I effectively was able to come up with a plan that, in my mind, could not rust away. I have no other income; I live very modestly on what I have, and it has grown to more than I think I will ever need. That's just it, as it keeps exponentially growing in fiat terms. There's no reason to get off this train till I find myself a rocket!

 I just don't think there is anything else I could diversify into that would not make me regret it, as every single other thing I have tried has been a failure when you measure it in BTC not dollars! I don't want children. I believe the world is a shitehole currently. and it's going to get worse. But we all have to play the hand we were dealt.

Again I am not complaining.
K  

  
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September 02, 2025, 03:01:15 AM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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September 02, 2025, 03:05:26 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (7)

Back above 110K and running! Breaking through several days of resistance. If we go above 111K the recovery could be quick… All eyes on MSTR this week. I’m crossing my fingers for a big week and the next two weeks really. My 4-year cycle indicator is flashing that the cycle top is quickly approaching.
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September 02, 2025, 03:18:26 AM

Back above 110K and running! Breaking through several days of resistance. If we go above 111K the recovery could be quick… All eyes on MSTR this week. I’m crossing my fingers for a big week and the next two weeks really. My 4-year cycle indicator is flashing that the cycle top is quickly approaching.

how often did we do from dec to sept in a 106k to 110k slot

1 time bro just this time.

the dynamics for a four year cycle are shot to hell.

silver mooning

copper mooning

btc flat for 10 months basically in the ATH range never happen.

tell me that in 2013/2014 we did 10 months in a 1000-1300 slot nope
tell me that in 2017/18 we did 10 months in a 18-19.5k slot nope
tell me that in 2021/22 we did 10 months in a 58-69k slot nope


so fuck that four year cycle shit.

we grind along and peak way slower maybe Jan of 2027
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