Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet .. unless it never arrived in their wallet .

Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.

Exchanges aren’t real wallets though..

Yeah, you can't even be sure that "your" BTC on exchanges are real or not.

It is funny that so many exchanges have created exchange wallets that appear to be private wallets, but they are closed source.. so people are deceived into thinking that they are HODLing their own coins.. even though probably the exchange wallets are a bit better than holding the coins on the exchanges, so there are nuances with many of these things and the various ways that us normies can get deceived in regards to our ability to safeguard and manage our own coins (and our abilities to transact whenever we like).

There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet .. unless it never arrived in their wallet .

Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.

Exchanges aren’t real wallets though..

Yeah, you can't even be sure that "your" BTC on exchanges are real or not.

I think this is a concern for newbies. Could this put newbies at risk in any way? Because newbies won't be able to tell the difference between real and fake.

Personally, I think that newbies should get started, even if they might be holding coins through third parties, and they can learn as they go.

The more value that newbies are investing, the more concern that they should have about making sure that they are holding a decent amount of their wealth privately rather than on exchanges and through 3rd parties.

Of course, there are judgement calls regarding how fast to learn and how much value to hold privately rather than holding the value on exchanges (or through third parties)... Some folks do not know the difference, and other folks downplay the difference, even though bitcoin's value comes from having the abilities to hold your own wealth and to transact directly with others without receiving permission and without even having to identify yourself beyond showing that you have control over the money (the bitcoin).

What do you think AuchanX?   how much value are you talking about?  Some newbies get into bitcoin with a lot of front loading and others might take several years to build their bitcoin position.  I personally suggest that newbies spend at least a whole cycle accumulating bitcoin, yet at the same time, I do recognize and appreciate that there are some newbies who have more capital so they are able to front load their bitcoin investment, yet even if they are able to front load their bitcoin investment, they still might be better off to spread out some of the initial bitcoin purchases.

We’re below the December 2024 monthly high.

Bear market begins.

Sorry but this has been an utterly pathetic bull market.

Hahahahaha

Bear market begins.

Oh my.  That truly is bettable, but you wouldn't bet since you don't want to lose.

I bet there is a new ATH prior to the end of the first quarter of 2026... which would not be a bear market since our last ATH was on October 6th.

I will also bet that the BTC price will never go below $0k ever again.  Even though surely, it is possible that the BTC price could get close to touching the 100-WMA.. but perhaps not until after the first quarter of 2026.

Any of those propositions bettable in your supposed proclamation of "a bear market"?

I will concede that $100k could get tested and/or even breached, which just seems a great opportunity to shake out some more weak hands and also to attempt to take advantage of current downward momentum.. yet even a breach of $100k is not guaranteed, but I would not bet that, even if I were to get decently good odds. 

By the way, so far, our dip has ONLY gotten down to $107,625 which is merely 15% from our $126,272 top, which is hardly even out of the ordinary... NOT that I am saying that more down needs to happen, or will happen - but the $107,625 happened only a mere 3 hours ago (at the time that I am posting this. .with the BTC price continuing to hover in the lower $108ks).

We’re below the December 2024 monthly high.
Bear market begins.

Sorry but this has been an utterly pathetic bull market.

Getting the feeling of some mindrust vibes coming from ya…

Naa, I’ve never panic sold. I moan like a bitch when things don’t go my way but I’m not selling at this pathetic price.

That is what Mindrust said. 

He was egging on the bear and even bought some more coins (to go over 10 BTC) just a few hours before he posted that he sold everything at about $4,500, which was about $1,500 lower than his earlier buy.

We’re below the December 2024 monthly high.

Bear market begins.

Sorry but this has been an utterly pathetic bull market.

Getting the feeling of some mindrust vibes coming from ya…

Naaah my boy doesn’t panic sell
Just secure the FIAT to provide life for if a top is or might be in….

What’s logic, selling 300$ coins at 100k + to sustain some year of living life as one is used to….
It’s a good sell imo…
Better as being forced to sell under 100k

Imho if an OG comes in a spot forcing to sell under 100k then he have done wrong something.

At a certain point, we can sell whenever we like - especially if our coins might be $300 each or even if they are under $3k each.

I am not against the idea of selling coins for needs, and even selling on the way up, even though it is problematic to be panic selling or selling in large quantities due to lack of preparation for bitcoin to go in either direction..

Let's say, for example, LFC were to have something like 25 BTC, and he had some expenses coming up that were already planned for the past 6 months or even for the past year, and so perhaps his expenses were in the ballpark of $200k (or maybe a lower amount, but let's go with $200k), and so perhaps he sold half of the expenses amount around $121k (so around 0.83 BTC he sold $100k worth of BTC), and so he was planning on selling the other $100k at $130k or higher, but instead the BTC price has been moving against him. .and so he might have to sell the other $100k at current prices, or perhaps at a lower dip price... .. yet overall, after all is said and done, he still would have had sold less than 2 out of 25 bitcoin and brought himself down to 23 bitcoin rather than 25 bitcoin, which I don't really see any major problem with any of that, even if there was a preference to sell a lower quantity of BTC at a higher price to cover various anticipated expenses (perhaps expenses that were purposefully planned and/or created around a year ago after the Trump pump).

My point is that there can be reasons to shave off some of the coins whether the BTC price is high, low or medium, and the sale has not really caused any meaningful damage to the overall bitcoin portfolio, even though the quantity of coins in the portfolio had become less from the sale than what it had been.

Hey Bitcoin, here's the deal: I need a new car.  ~ I want to make a deal with Bitcoin, because I don't want to sell too much. So Bitcoin must go up, that's the only solution

I got it, I'll have to cycle again. No new t-shirts either, but luckily I got my socks!

Huh?  Bitcoin went up from the beginning of August until now.. but maybe it did  not go up enough?  It went from $113k to $126k.. That was not enough?

I think that the odds are less than 50% that this particular top is in... but that does not mean that we are guaranteed to have a new ATH... so my confidence is not really high... even though I would be willing to enter into a 50/50 bet on the topic.

Rumor has it that Joe Rogan filmed an episode with Michael Saylor yesterday. At this point I think we’re hoping the normies will jump into Bitcoin and push us to another top we can all dump… Not sure that is the best plan, but with Elon tweeting about it and now Rogan doing an episode, the signs of a cycle top are starting to pile up.

I don't really agree with your conclusion, even though it is not totally unreasonable.

Everyone is claiming that the market has gone down. But I don't think so. Because $124k is the highest ATH, the current $108k is not a big drop. If we touch 90k, we will understand that the market is going down.

Say something inspiring.

You are begging.  Why?

after bitcoin moved following trump's election, and after seeing over 100,000 and then falling back to nearly 70,000, if i said that bitcoin would hover around $110,000 on a random october day, it would seem like very good news.

perspective is everything. when making long-term plans, don't let a few panic-mongers fool you with the drop over the last two weeks. hold on to every satoshi.

If you are fairly new to bitcoin, keeping on buying tends to be good, even though surely guys might not be able to buy any more frequently than weekly, and there is nothing wrong with ongoing, persistent and consistent weekly buys, especially for guys in their first whole bitcoin cycle and even some guys who have been in bitcoin longer than a cycle may well be better off to just keep buying, whether weekly or otherwise when they get extra cash coming in.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[obuoma]

Naaah my boy doesn’t panic sell
Just secure the FIAT to provide life for if a top is or might be in….

What’s logic, selling 300$ coins at 100k + to sustain some year of living life as one is used to….
It’s a good sell imo…
Better as being forced to sell under 100k

Imho if an OG comes in a spot forcing to sell under 100k then he have done wrong something.

I thank you for the Whatsapp conversation last week though brother, when you helped make my mind up for me to sell some @ 121k.

That’s looking like a good move now tbh.

My small family is grateful for the advice

It takes someone with good experience of the market to sell above 120k during the last pump because from a technical standpoint, the last pump that lead to the ATH looked like market was set never to fall below 124k area which was the resistance turn support (the ATH that was eaten up by the pump). Little did we know that such pump was not going to last, so those who sold are indeed knowledgeable of when the market move without volume (an ideal case of sell-to-buy).

I hope you are re-strategizing to replenish those sold coins or you have reached your accumulation targets?

[Greyhats]

Nabbed some at ~108k, would have nabbed some at 130k if it was today. Keep thoughts strong it ain’t over til it is and this doesn’t feel like it’s over at all

[OgNasty]

Say something inspiring.

There is still a real possibility that MSTR could be added to the S&P500 in December which would bring a windfall of money to Bitcoin. Gold at record highs could cause investors to rotate profits into Bitcoin. A lot of ETFs for altcoins are about to be approved and that will raise prices of alts, potentially allowing those investors to rotate profits into Bitcoin. The US hasn’t made a BTC buy yet, but did just buy 11 figures worth of Argentinian Pesos showing they aren’t afraid to buy other currencies. This is also the most bullish period of the year.

All of that is great… but it sets a lot of expectations that will be hard to surpass. These are the sort of expectations that come with market tops. It could also be the fuel to send us to the moon. We’ll see which it will be soon.

[cAPSLOCK]

Rinse, Lather, Repeat.

Hello.

So I have been living off my stack for some time.  I am not a trader.  I also live a VERY simple and minimal life.  So it is not expensive.  At the current burn rate I could live well beyond my expected expiration date.

That said there are better ways to do this, and since I have bought myself the time to look into them I am formulating ideas.  Thought I would share them here.

Though I would warn you.. as some of you already know these are the musings of a madman, and a fool.  Not advice.  In fact I welcome help understanding where I could be going wrong.

First of all my objectives are simple:

1.  Retain the mass of my wealth as BTC.
2.  Pay for my living expenses.
3.  Keep those expenses as low as I can.
4.  Reduce risk. (but try not to eliminate gains)
5.  "Diversify" along the way into direct benefits to my life, that also are good value stores like real estate.  But see #1.  Not as investment.  But as quality of life enhancements.
6.  Take the low hanging fruit.  Trips... Dates with my wife.  Fine foods.  An orange corvette or maybe even a Mclaren.  OK not really those last two.  But lets leave those there as ways I would spend frivolously from time to time for my own pleasure.
7.  Give something to my kids once I am gone.

I am not very interested in gambling, or trading to the next strata of standard of living.  Though I do plan to buy my brother in law into the WSOP since he is indirectly responsible for me being able to in the first place.  I am fine to just live here on out.

So...  why not sell just a little at a time?

Well there are several obvious reasons.  But the most obvious is there are simply better ways that will let me achieve the above list better... particularly #1.

So here is one possible VERY simple plan.

A.  Take out a loan against my held value.
This is a huge topic in itself.  the OBVIOUS reasons for it are the same as why high net worth folks always do this.  I mitigate against taxes, and smooth out the variance of the bull/bear nature of BTC.  While hopefully preserving my stack.  There are not very many options available now (Strike Ledn etc) and most of them have ridonkulous interest rates.  But as nations begin to recognize BITCOIN as a real asset, other ways to borrow at lower rates may be possible.

B.  Buy Put options against Bitcoin.

C.  Repay loans as needed during bull markets as possible.

Lather, Rinse, Repeat.  --- and keep the stack healthy and perhaps even GROWING.

The trick is setting this up as as well as possible... but lets consider the mechanics.

First... we avoid tax.  This is a huge boon since the rake to the gvmt is HUGE.  It is like giving myself 15%+ head start.  And the less I sell the more the value I hold can work for me through the mechanism of NGU we all love.  

Well why bet against BTC with put options?  This is using the financial instrument of options in the way it was intended.  Options were designed to help farmers avoid being bankrupted when there was an extremely dry year.  Or during other times where crops were not as bountiful.  The farmer is setting aside an amount of future profits in a bet that pays him when times are tough... thus calming variance and keeping him afloat.

Depending on our needs we can reach a place in which capital PRESERVATION becomes VERY attractive.  As in I have only so many more years to live, but I would like to live them doing my list up there.

So...  I am creating the following scenarios.  Based on the situation in which I have a loan to live off of, and put options as insurance.

1.  Bitcoin does another big cycle bear (likely 30-50% this time... but who knows?) while I have my loan.  The Put options PAY ME.  And I can continue paying off my debt while waiting for the next bull AND living my life.  In the end lost less... perhaps even none.

2.  Bitcoin continues to go up... we break, or soften the 4 year cycle and we see it at $250k next year.  Well my options were a waste.  And the money I spend buying them is simply gone.  But I am now 2x richer than I was before, and can EASILY pay off my loan.  My options losses are barely a regret.

3.  Bitcoin crawls along sideways and my options come due, I lose the money, but my stack is basically what it was before... I have the money I need to live, AND I can continue to pay off my loan.  This is potentially a worst case scenario.  But it is WAY WAY better than having a loan I can only pay by selling my bitcoin after a crash.

Then just repeat the process till I am dead, and leave the well oiled machine to my family.

The details are, as usual, the hard part. How do I architect it?   How much x?  How long y?  (loans, expenses, corvettes, and options) How to manage this?  And what combination of the details is the most optimal?

Anyway.  Here's the thing.  Most of us were not born into this machine.  And we may not realize that the best path forward is quite a bit more complex than simply "live off the stack".  And even if we could??? Why not take as much into the grave as we can?  I mean... I owe you guys that much.

Sorry for a very long post.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[bitserve]

IF this is the end of the bull season and we already saw the ATH (I have my doubts)... Couldn't we say that this is the first cycle in which retail FOMO was completely absent? Just a thought.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[IceLincoln]

after bitcoin moved following trump's election, and after seeing over 100,000 and then falling back to nearly 70,000, if i said that bitcoin would hover around $110,000 on a random october day, it would seem like very good news.

perspective is everything. when making long-term plans, don't let a few panic-mongers fool you with the drop over the last two weeks. hold on to every satoshi.

Bitcoin price movements isn’t something new, it’s volatile so we can’t always predict it, When we thought we’ll have an Uptober pump Trump took us by surprise and it gave us this dump. Those dumping are only given off their positions to new people and for plebs like us to get more bitcoin to achieve our accumulation goals faster.

A good discount is here, let’s go shopping  .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Rinse, Lather, Repeat.
Hello.
So I have been living off my stack for some time.  I am not a trader.  I also live a VERY simple and minimal life.  So it is not expensive.  At the current burn rate I could live well beyond my expected expiration date.
That said there are better ways to do this, and since I have bought myself the time to look into them I am formulating ideas.  Thought I would share them here.

Though I would warn you.. as some of you already know these are the musings of a madman, and a fool.  Not advice.  In fact I welcome help understanding where I could be going wrong.
First of all my objectives are simple:
1.  Retain the mass of my wealth as BTC.
2.  Pay for my living expenses.
3.  Keep those expenses as low as I can.
4.  Reduce risk. (but try not to eliminate gains)
5.  "Diversify" along the way into direct benefits to my life, that also are good value stores like real estate.  But see #1.  Not as investment.  But as quality of life enhancements.
6.  Take the low hanging fruit.  Trips... Dates with my wife.  Fine foods.  An orange corvette or maybe even a Mclaren.  OK not really those last two.  But lets leave those there as ways I would spend frivolously from time to time for my own pleasure.
7.  Give something to my kids once I am gone.

I am not very interested in gambling, or trading to the next strata of standard of living.  Though I do plan to buy my brother in law into the WSOP since he is indirectly responsible for me being able to in the first place.  I am fine to just live here on out.
So...  why not sell just a little at a time?

None of what you describe are outside of reasonable boundaries, yet I wonder if you are able to apply my sustainable withrawal formula to whatever your stash might be in order to only withdraw within the formula?

 So, for example, if you were to have at least 14.8446 BTC, then you could start withdrawing $80k per year or perhaps $6,666 per month, and you could do that perpetually with a 7% raise each year.

Of course, if you were to have more, then you have more of a cushion and/or your withdrawal rate could be higher, whether your bitcoin are your complete income or if they happen to be supplementing any other income streams that you might have.

Once you know your withdrawal rate, then you work out the various spending that you choose to do to make sure that you are not spending beyond your budget..

Well there are several obvious reasons.  But the most obvious is there are simply better ways that will let me achieve the above list better... particularly #1.

So here is one possible VERY simple plan.

A.  Take out a loan against my held value.
This is a huge topic in itself.  the OBVIOUS reasons for it are the same as why high net worth folks always do this.  I mitigate against taxes, and smooth out the variance of the bull/bear nature of BTC.  While hopefully preserving my stack.  There are not very many options available now (Strike Ledn etc) and most of them have ridonkulous interest rates.  But as nations begin to recognize BITCOIN as a real asset, other ways to borrow at lower rates may be possible.
 

  I am not completely against the idea of loans, yet I think that any loans would supplement some variation of my sustainable withdrawal ideas... so  Maybe if you were to have 20 BTC, then maybe you could plug the 14.446 BTC into the sustainable withdrawal plan and then you plug the other 5.15-ish BTC into whatever loan terms that you would enter into.  Nothing wrong with potentially having a diversification of ways that you might receive income, whether on your bitcoin or any other income sources that you might have.. some of them might be more passive than others... yet even with my own management of various cashflows, I still think that I spend a couple of hours a week, so maybe 8-10-ish hours a month managing cashflows..

B.  Buy Put options against Bitcoin.

  Beyond my experiences.

C.  Repay loans as needed during bull markets as possible.

Sure, you can have price based and time based withdrawal practices.
 

Lather, Rinse, Repeat.  --- and keep the stack healthy and perhaps even GROWING.

Many of us likely already know that the dollar value of the bitcoin will likely continue to grow, even if we withdraw from our bitcoin on a regular basis, as long we are withdrawing at a rate that is lower than the rate that the bitcoin is growing in its dollar value.
 

The trick is setting this up as as well as possible... but lets consider the mechanics.

First... we avoid tax.  This is a huge boon since the rake to the gvmt is HUGE.  It is like giving myself 15%+ head start.  And the less I sell the more the value I hold can work for me through the mechanism of NGU we all love.  

If we are not sure about how long we might need to withdraw, the sure, we likely want to be able to continue to withdraw at the same rate and/or increase for the cost of living increases without overly depleting our stash... . at the same time, if we are getting closer towards knowing our days are numbered, then we might be o.k. to deplete our stash... but yeah, no one really wants to outlive their stash and then end up in some kind of a poverty situation, in the event that they still need more money.
 

Well why bet against BTC with put options?  This is using the financial instrument of options in the way it was intended.  Options were designed to help farmers avoid being bankrupted when there was an extremely dry year.  Or during other times where crops were not as bountiful.  The farmer is setting aside an amount of future profits in a bet that pays him when times are tough... thus calming variance and keeping him afloat.

I might be overly concern that something like a put is not necessary, yet again, I don't understand it well enough to know if it might be helpful.

I personally think that if a person is withdrawing from the sustainable withdrawal, and take my earlier example of 14.8446 BTC, and if the person has 20 BTC, then he can just fuck around with the extra 5.15 BTC in order to splurge in various ways, but the 14.8446 is supporting him no matter what... and sure, maybe there could be some need to have some extra money so that if the BTC price drops very low, then there would not be any need to withdraw from the stash during those low price periods.

Depending on our needs we can reach a place in which capital PRESERVATION becomes VERY attractive.  As in I have only so many more years to live, but I would like to live them doing my list up there.

So...  I am creating the following scenarios.  Based on the situation in which I have a loan to live off of, and put options as insurance.
1.  Bitcoin does another big cycle bear (likely 30-50% this time... but who knows?) while I have my loan.  The Put options PAY ME.  And I can continue paying off my debt while waiting for the next bull AND living my life.  In the end lost less... perhaps even none.

2.  Bitcoin continues to go up... we break, or soften the 4 year cycle and we see it at $250k next year.  Well my options were a waste.  And the money I spend buying them is simply gone.  But I am now 2x richer than I was before, and can EASILY pay off my loan.  My options losses are barely a regret.

 I can see how the put can offer you an ability to be covered either way, yet lowering your upside...

Personally, I have no problem selling enough to cover any bear markets that might come, including that largely if we already had enough to live off of our BTC since $5k-ish, then if the price is $100k then it is still 20x more than the amount needed to live on.

Of course, I understand that each of us might have had reached our fuck you status at differing prices, so then the surplus that we have to work with is likely less, yet I get nervous about loans and puts, since we can also live with the stash that we have as long as our stash is greater than our minimal needs, and the higher our surplus then we already have plenty of options.

I have a hard time imagining that you don't already have more than 5x the amount that you need, so then your trying to hedge with loans and/or puts may well end up overly complicating your already good situation in which you already have a decent amount of surplus that can be used to buttress whatever system you put in place that could merely involve various forms of price-based and/or time-based sustainable withdrawal practices.

3.  Bitcoin crawls along sideways and my options come due, I lose the money, but my stack is basically what it was before... I have the money I need to live, AND I can continue to pay off my loan.  This is potentially a worst case scenario.  But it is WAY WAY better than having a loan I can only pay by selling my bitcoin after a crash.

Then just repeat the process till I am dead, and leave the well oiled machine to my family.

The details are, as usual, the hard part. How do I architect it?   How much x?  How long y?  (loans, expenses, corvettes, and options) How to manage this?  And what combination of the details is the most optimal?

Anyway.  Here's the thing.  Most of us were not born into this machine.  And we may not realize that the best path forward is quite a bit more complex than simply "live off the stack".  And even if we could??? Why not take as much into the grave as we can?  I mean... I owe you guys that much.
Sorry for a very long post.

I suppose the punchline is to figure out how to play with as many of the financial instruments that are comfortable to our situation, and maybe any set of financial instruments can start to feel straight-forward and simple to the extent that we are using them all of the time, yet I doubt that we can necessarily pass down our systems to any heirs or that heirs would necessarily respect our systems, unless they were locked into having to follow it by some kind of a trust that is not going to get broken after our passing.

[BitHodlers]

Yes bitcoin is all the things you mentioned, and yes it should be taking market share from gold, but for the last 5 years, it at worst hasn’t, and at best its ability is diminishing. This I find disappointing, because IMO Bitcoin is without a doubt superior to gold.

Ideally what I’d like to see is a break through that 5 year BTCGLD resistance level around 40 ounces, and at least a doubling after that, however I think it is wise to also allocate a portion of investments in case that doesn’t happen anytime soon. Going off previous runs it should have happened by now.

Gold is shit and has an infinite supply, you are in the wrong thread and the wrong forum.

Open source is messy - and even participating in non-censored forums is messy, and sometimes bad actors will take advantage of the openness and engage in disingenuine discussions.  Disingenuiness  is usually considered to be on purpose, yet sometimes attempts at participation might not necessarily be with bad intent, yet sometimes have bad results in terms of wasting time - yet since no one is in charge, it can be difficult to know where to draw the line.. or if someone has the authority to draw the line or maybe sometimes the more honest participants might get driven out by the trolls.

It is, but if you want to become an authority on it nobody is stopping you. Bitcoin Core is an open source wonder. If you want to become an authority nothing is prevent you except yourself. It is entirely based on merit. Knowledge and contributions is the path.

There are fake golds in circulation, but I’ve never heard of anyone getting fake BTC in their wallet .. unless it never arrived in their wallet .

Fake Bitcoin is very common. Many exchanges now have about 5 different withdrawal-options when you click "Bitcoin", and only one of them is real Bitcoin. Many people fall for that.

This is not the correct comparison. Wrapped Bitcoin are not fake Bitcoin as long as they are backed by locked in Bitcoin and always redeemable. Can I redeem a real gold bar if I end up with a fake tungsten bar?  They are the equivalent of having a certificate that you own gold but someone else is holding the real thing for you. Forks would be a more accurate comparison to fake gold I think.

Fair enough.  Do you think $150k by the end of the year is bettable?

I think that odds are pretty good (maybe close to 40%), yet I have a hard time considering it bettable such as above 50% - even though I would bet some of the downside numbers are not going to happen (such as sub $80k or some other numbers that guys are throwing around - or implying to be within the cards.

Oh, I did say that I would be willing to bet $127k before the end of the year or at least by no later than the 1st quarter of 2026... and some of these could go either way.. so i am not that enthusiastic to enter into a bet even if we have decently good odds of overshooting some of the lower UP numbers, too.

Yes of course! I can't say anything about odds because I would be guessing like everyone else, but the error that most people make and don't realize is that they almost always assume consistently negative things will happen or continue to happen. The war with Russia will not end, the trade war with China will not improve, inflation will get worse or we will even enter a recession. They are assuming this but it is based on nothing, all of these events at 50-50 at any given time. They will happen eventually and they could happen this quarter, or in 2026 we just can't know. Assuming the worst always is not helpful. Just imagine if we assumed the opposite of these things. War is over, trade war with China also solved with a deal, inflation numbers great and more interest rate cuts. It would be like the stars have aligned, meanwhile many people here assume the stars will nuke Earth into pieces.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

A LOT of cycle top chatter on the socials and here.  And some good reasons why we might think that was the case.  It could be.

But a few thoughts and some squiggly lines.

1.  The "debasement trade" is on.  Gold is winning (and dear little silver... poor Risto would have loved to see it).  And BTC is fizzling.  But BTC does tend to lag gold in moves to safety trades.
2.  The recent v30 update was contentious and "the end of Bitcoin".  But i doubt this is really mattering.  It is really only certain Maxi purists who are worried about this.  But it does concur with this fizzle.
3.  Blackrock is recently reporting the BTC ETF as the most successful product they have launched.
4.  Other trad-fi companies are lining up now.  Even... gasp... JP Morgan.
5.  There are worries over rehypothication (paper BTC) thanks to IBIT etc.  BUT if this is the case they are breaking the law.  Still a possibility
6.  There is recent concern that the US Gvmt might have hacked wallets to become the #2 BTC holder after Satoshi*
7.  The world macro environment is in massive chaos.
8.  Over the span of ~1 year we have moved from 25k->125k->108k  we quintupled BTC's market cap.  We are talking about >1.5 TRILLION dollars.  Moves at this level need a lot more capital.  Seeing a 5x top this cycle is not really that much to be mad about.

Most of that is only bullish...  some?  Less so.

But even #8 considered I think there are a LOT of reasons bitcoin could not be finished yet for this cycle.

But here is the GIANT caveat.  When (not IF) the global financial markets collapse they will pull on BTC and GOLD too.  BTC will suffer worse... and then value will POUR into Gold, and then.... Bitcoin IMO.

So there are lots of question marks.

Also "cycles"?  are they still going?? Or are they over.  Yes... to both in my opinion.  We WILL see cycle effects still.  But they will be damped by things like derivative markets and the sheer mass of money in the Bitcoin system.

But there is MUCH more mass still to come.

I will HOLD.


*get your coins OUT of P2PK addresses if you are fortunate enough to have them.  Put them in P2SH a (3xxxx) or bech32 (bc1qxxxx) ASAP.  Personally I would avoid Taproot addresses unless you run CL/LND.

[Ivystar5]

I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF

It's my turn to witness a full bull run the bull is running backwards

[philipma1957]

I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF

For you ?

Or for all k of us?

[hisslyness]

IF this is the end of the bull season and we already saw the ATH (I have my doubts)... Couldn't we say that this is the first cycle in which retail FOMO was completely absent? Just a thought.

In about 7 days, the 1068d cycle, which i must admit, have been the base of my "taking some off the table strategy", will prove to be valid or invalid...

Regardless of what happens, i'll adapt and re-adjust accordingly...

Besides, i still haven't received a call from a buddy of mine to buy some corn for him. He's also been a great indicator that the cycle is over...  

[Ivystar5]

I'm almost panicking is the how it's going to end? WTF

For you ?

Or for all k of us?

Just a noob, it hits different

[BitHodlers]

1.  The "debasement trade" is on.  Gold is winning (and dear little silver... poor Risto would have loved to see it).  And BTC is fizzling.  But BTC does tend to lag gold in moves to safety trades.

It is not. People are just cherry picking random comparison time spans to make one point or the other. It is very random because you can increase or decrease the time span to make any claim. Has gold outperformed in some recent few months? Yes. What about between yesterday and today? On the other hand what about in the last 5 years? 10 years? 15 years?  

Besides, i still haven't received a call from a buddy of mine to buy some corn for him. He's also been a great indicator that the cycle is over...  

The sentiment is very very low. We are in a bull market but the bull run hasn't even started.