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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26962718 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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October 11, 2025, 06:13:07 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (10), vapourminer (1), AlcoHoDL (1)

[...]I am very disappointed.
You are very greedy.

Will you still be very disappointed when Bitcoin dips to $1.0M from $1.4M in 2030?

Perhaps some people can never get enough, no matter what.

I know that you don't completely agree with the idea of luck, yet as long as we are not dead (or perhaps if we have (or had) at least a 4 year investment horizon when we got started), we are so damned fortunate to have had come across bitcoin and come to the realization that it was a place in which we could put value, and yeah, we did not know for sure that it was going to go up, but we considered it as a potentially promising place.

There are so many folks who either don't hear about bitcoin or if they hear about it, they do not recognize and appreciate it as an opportunity, which continues to be true to this day.

Some of us who have been in bitcoin for a while start to believe that the bitcoin trade is obvious, even if it may well be obvious to some of us, since even if there were advantages in being aggressive in our investments, those folks who were moderate and/or even conservative in their bitcoin investment, were still able to profit quite extensively, as long as they stayed somewhat consistent in their buying of bitcoin and erroring on the side of buying and HODLing it.

Sure, there are some guys who have been in bitcoin more than 6 years and still have costs in the $30ks to $50ks, so they might ONLY have 2.5x to 4x profits in their bitcoin holdings, yet there are quite a few of us who have costs per BTC that are quite a bit below $30k, even below $10k per BTC - which surely should have had allowed us to offset the debasement of the dollar and various other fiat currencies.

I suppose some of us have figured out various ways to maintain cashflow in our lives so that we don't feel any urgency to be cashing out much if any of our BTC, and I don't have any problem if guys want to make somewhat radical upgrades to their lifestyle - yet at the same time, it is probably healthier to try to figure out ways to gradually upgrade your lifestyle rather than radically upgrading, even if you are able to radically upgrade.  Not everyone is going to agree with my viewpoint, that is for sure, and surely various aspects of a person's situation - even their age, might cause them to shoot for high aspirations that may well be contributing to extra stresses that may well not be necessary... but hey, to each their own.

Lucky I feel.. .

Hopefully no observers got liquidated during that flash crash.

It is problematic to be playing with leverage, even though surely, there are guys, even in these here parts, who choose to use leverage of some sort or another in their ways of dealing with bitcoin... and sometimes even more leverage than they can handle financially and/or psychologically.. and therefore, small dips can sometimes end up with fairly high magnifying effects.

Historically, it seems that we had much more volatility and even emotions. I recall a lot of time that "stay calm" used to be quite a common theme in these here parts.



You seem to think that the solution is to sell in order that you have more money in case the price falls..

Yet if you are merely investing within your income then you just keep investing no matter what, whether the BTC price falls or not.

sure, you could hold back some of your buys, so that you are only buying with half of your income, so if the price goes down, you have some money saved up, yet you might end up saving up way more than you need, and then the price does not end up going down, and so you end up with too much fiat when you should have had been buying bitcoin all along.. which seems to be your issue already, if you had not been buying steady since early 2017, so you still have not figured out your mistake and you keep repeating it by failing/refusing to ongoingly, regularly, persistently, consistently and perhaps even aggressively buy (of course, within your already existing discretionary income, whatever that might be).  Another thing is trying to figure out ways to increase your discretionary income by increasing your income and/or by cutting your expenses, and maybe trying to reach an accumulation rate that is greater than 15% of your income. or some other kind of large number that is also reasonable.
Everything started making sense, LOL.

Hopefully.  You are still in a good place, even if it is taking you a long time to figure out that the key to bitcoin is to keep stacking until you reach some acceptable version of overaccumulation status.  There are surely a lot of guys who prematurely conclude that they have reached overaccumulation status based on concerns that the prices are continuing to go up... Yet, part of our recognition should still be that so many normies still don't know what the fuck bitcoin is, even though some of them think that they do based on their having had heard the word, "bitcoin."

Well, FYI - I am not investing all my income in Bitcoin.

You are reading me (my post) wrong.  I was merely trying to suggest that some guys can ONLY invest from their income since they either do not have anything saved (and/or they do not have liquid places in which they could draw upon to invest in bitcoin), so they can only invest from their income as their income comes in.. .. and they might not even be able to draw from their income in advance because they either have bad credit, no collateral and/or insufficient credibility in terms of their ongoing income continuing to come in (not that I consider borrowing against your future income to be a good idea, especially for people who are already with questionable credit worthiness or questionable future cashflow and/or back up ways to pay the loan in case the investment goes to zero or does not adequately perform). 

I actually cannot afford to do that. I mainly save my signature earnings from the forum and keep that in Bitcoin. I sell some portions from here to cover my pocket expenses, and I have a real-life job to cover my family expenses. That is how I have been doing so far. But I sometimes sell more from my holdings to buy new gadgets and devices. Probably, I am doing it wrong because I am following these trends. I could save them if I wanted.

You are in the best position to judge any places in which you are able to increase your income and/or cut your expenses, and so surely it is good that you have figured out various ways to earn bitcoin and to transact with bitcoin, and so that puts you at a certain advantage over folks who still have not yet learn those kinds of aspects of bitcoin.

You likely have had a bit of a problematic mentality when it comes to bitcoin, in terms of your inclinations to spend it without replacing it, and sure, I understand if some of your income is coming from bitcoin, there may well be times in which your various basic expenses exceed your income, so you have to figure out from some places in which to draw from various resources that you have in order to cover the various basic expenses, which is part of the reason that guys will keep various back up funds so that they have cash cushions to cover their expenses when things are not going well or maybe even in times that they might have made some mistakes in their calculating of their income versus their expenses. 

No one can really tell you how to manage your funds and/or how much to emphasize accumulating bitcoin, since level of aggressiveness (or priorities) and/or levels of whimpiness are within your own choices including your putting some efforts in to identifying the value of bitcoin as an asset and/or as a vehicle to both present and future empowerment (empowerment with the potential of having of more options).

We all got rekt again  Sad
I wish I had some fiat to buy back again.

A so far 13% correction is hardly anything to pay attention to, and sure guys are in different phases of their bitcoin investment journey, and so you have to figure out where you are on the spectrum of accumulation, maintenance, liquidation or some combination of those and perhaps some priority to one or another depending.. and guys who are in their earliest years into bitcoin will be at various stages of accumulation, so as their bitcoin stash grows they may well find themselves to start to transition into some aspect of the next stage up, yet it still can take guys well over 10 years to get through their accumulation stage, especially if they are building their bitcoin ONLY from their income and they don't have other places in which they can reallocate into bitcoin or other ways to front load their bitcoin without engaging in unnecessary risks. 

Maybe I am a bit too conservative, sometimes, yet it seems to me that there are ways to invest that are mostly focused on building and not taking too many chances of a lot of things potentially going wrong and/or devolving into trading and/or gambling rather than investing.  There are a lot of guys who seem to mix up trading and investing, and sure there are ways in which trading/investing overlap, yet at the same time, some guys seem to wrongly conclude that with bitcoin they need to transition between buying and selling their bitcoin in order to hopefully build their bitcoin stash in a more rapid way... yet frequently trying to rush an investment (like bitcoin) might either contribute to opposite results or even hinder the building process in unnecessary ways.

It seems that you might need to just ongoingly focus on building your bitcoin, and if you sell any bitcoin that you have, then spend and replace them in a fairly short period of time, yet you likely have to rethink what targets you are trying to reach..  so for example, if your current income is $20k to $30k, yet you were shooting for something like a $40k per year income that could be completely supported by bitcoin, then from my point of view, right now you would need right around 7.455 BTC or more to reach that threshold of being able to perpetually draw $40k per year and with a 7% per year optional income increase.

Even if you currently do not have 7.455 BTC, and maybe you ONLY have 1.5 BTC (which it seems that you don't even have that much, even though you have been in registered on this forum since early 2017)... but let's say that you were to either have 1.5 BTC or able to accumulate that amount by 2031, then perhaps by 2031, 1.5 BTC would be enough to support a perpetual income of $40k per year with 7% annual increases.

Of course, projections of future prices are not guaranteed, yet it still can be helpful to have some ballpark ideas about where we are at (how did we get here should be more concrete) and where we think that we might be able to go. None of this is guaranteed.  We do our best based on our circumstances as they are and what we realistically might consider to be within our capabilities, and sometimes we will end up in a better situation than we had expected ourselves to be, which has been the case with quite a few folks who have been in bitcoin for a long time and who have stayed focused on accumulating and mostly holding their bitcoin.
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October 11, 2025, 06:35:46 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I wouldn't know. Try asking Laura.
Who is Laura and where can I find her? Shocked

I wouldn't know. Try asking Mike.
 Roll Eyes
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October 11, 2025, 06:38:12 PM

I wouldn't know. Try asking Mike.
 Roll Eyes
Now I have to ask Mike who? lol

A so far 13% correction is hardly anything to pay attention to, and sure guys are in different phases of their bitcoin investment journey, and so you have to figure out where you are on the spectrum of accumulation, maintenance, liquidation or some combination of those and perhaps some priority to one or another depending.. and guys who are in their earliest years into bitcoin will be at various stages of accumulation, so as their bitcoin stash grows they may well find themselves to start to transition into some aspect of the next stage up, yet it still can take guys well over 10 years to get through their accumulation stage, especially if they are building their bitcoin ONLY from their income and they don't have other places in which they can reallocate into bitcoin or other ways to front load their bitcoin without engaging in unnecessary risks.  
I think a lot of people forgot and many more weren't even around during this time.. Bitcoin sometimes crashed much more than this 13% on news of these bans, lol.

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October 11, 2025, 06:48:10 PM

.......Given proper counseling and some love applied through rusty pipes they can become sober from crypto trading and become hodling BTC (<- not including paper BTC which obviously has its own ICD code).

I am not opposed to some paper bitcoin for either beginners and/or for those who have most of their investments in various kinds of products (such as retirement funds) that might not allow for self-custody.  Also, some institutions and/or governments might have difficulties self-custodying, so paper bitcoin might be mostly acceptable for them, even if they might have to figure out ways to attempt to transition into having some control and/or oversight over the ways that the coins are custodied - perhaps even trying to custody with custodians who engaging in some kinds of credible auditing (proof of reserves), and even having abilities to move coins between custodians could keep a decent number of the custodians honest (to the extent that we can have any confidence in quite a few aspect of our smoke and mirror status quo financial institutions and systems that seem to operate on spin, convolution and obscurity).

Looks more and more to me like unhealthy leverage has been cleared out.
Just the regular roller coaster ride that I signed up for.

Though overleverage can kill, quite literally even:
Crypto investor Konstantin Galish found dead in Lamborghini amid market crash.
The tragic event highlights the urgent need to address mental health issues among crypto traders amid market volatility and financial pressures.

I can only reemphasize the importance of addressing mental health issues in crypto traders.
Given proper counseling and some love applied through rusty pipes they can become sober from crypto trading and become hodling BTC (<- not including paper BTC which obviously has its own ICD code).
"paper btc" lolz

ICD10 code C80.1

I had just glossed over the ICD code part, and so yeah, since you are emphasizing it, I had to look it up...  I asked the internet, what is ICD code, and I got the answer that it relates to International classification of disease.. wow!!!..

It is starting to become more and more known that the fiat and even the debt systems are problematic for society as a whole, yet there might not be ways to completely divorce ourselves from such already existing systems, since even in current times, we have debt systems being built up around bitcoin, so there are attempts to build the same problematic and abusive systems around bitcoin, which may or may not end well for various folks, and bitcoin was likely built to withstand some of these kinds of attacks, yet at the same time, the resolution and even the victory of bitcoin remains far from certain.

Even worse, I had to look up: ICD-10 code C80.1, and I got this:

"ICD-10 code C80.1 - stands for "Malignant (primary) neoplasm, unspecified," which is used when a cancerous tumor is diagnosed but the primary site cannot be determined."

So this working week markets are down while ETFs gobbled up $2,7B worth of BTC or about 24,000BTC in just one week  Shocked! If someone told me that this would happen before i wouldn't have believed them

That is true.

It seems that previously, the more obvious assessment would have had been that the ETF participants would move directionally the same as the BTC price, but instead, it seems that we have one class of bitcoin newbies taking value from another class of bitcoiners.

I am not sure if that is a proper assessment, even though surely, it does seem that certain folks are becoming more interested in bitcoin, whether they intend to dump on us later down the road or not, they are still seeming to garner more and more of the bitcoin wealth, and it is not direct ownership of bitcoin, either.

I wouldn't know. Try asking Laura.
Who is Laura and where can I find her? Shocked
I wouldn't know. Try asking Mike.
 Roll Eyes

hahahahaha.

Without context, that reminded me of the old commercial from the 70s. 

https://www.facebook.com/theflyervaults/videos/life-cereals-mikey-likes-it-commercial-from-1974/159445322176606/
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October 11, 2025, 06:49:51 PM

It's getting normal once again.

I am happy I was at sleep when there is panic in the market.
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October 11, 2025, 07:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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October 11, 2025, 07:22:06 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I wouldn't know. Try asking Mike.
 Roll Eyes
Now I have to ask Mike who? lol

You must be new here. Here's your answer key. Study harder.
You can retake the test on the first available date.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWSlVMpbcPU

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October 11, 2025, 07:25:11 PM

It's getting normal once again.

I am happy I was at sleep when there is panic in the market.
Not as happy as I am to still have extra cash to add more corns.

Sure I'm begining to have the heart of some guys here who get excited even when price is not greenish
 
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October 11, 2025, 07:27:01 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Even if the dip was deep, it wasn't obviously deep enough.
Why?
Because nobody posted the according rollercoaster.gif  Grin
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October 11, 2025, 08:01:13 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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October 11, 2025, 08:12:59 PM

You must be new here. Here's your answer key. Study harder.
You can retake the test on the first available date.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWSlVMpbcPU


I don't even have like 10 posts in this thread of course I am new lol. Thanks for the link. I didn't know that reference I only knew of the other..

There is no second best!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNf97XgBdTc
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October 11, 2025, 08:28:22 PM


I am not opposed to some paper bitcoin for either beginners and/or for those who have most of their investments in various kinds of products (such as retirement funds) that might not allow for self-custody.  Also, some institutions and/or governments might have difficulties self-custodying, so paper bitcoin might be mostly acceptable for them, even if they might have to figure out ways to attempt to transition into having some control and/or oversight over the ways that the coins are custodied - perhaps even trying to custody with custodians who engaging in some kinds of credible auditing (proof of reserves), and even having abilities to move coins between custodians could keep a decent number of the custodians honest (to the extent that we can have any confidence in quite a few aspect of our smoke and mirror status quo financial institutions and systems that seem to operate on spin, convolution and obscurity).

Jay - I am glad to learn you feel this way about spot Bitcoin ETFs!  Smiley
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October 11, 2025, 08:46:01 PM
Merited by Biodom (1), JayJuanGee (1), OutOfMemory (1), bitserve (1)

Even if the dip was deep, it wasn't obviously deep enough.
Why?
Because nobody posted the according rollercoaster.gif  Grin



Even if you don't plan to sell. HODL. At least set an 'imaginary' date of some kind, that you might sell.

Mine is 2035, when 99% of all BTC have been mined. Again, don't plan to sell even then. But hey,

puts a bit of perspective (in my case since 2013) on the what 20-25th dump of btc crashing since then? (been a lot)

just saying

BTC will dump more then stock market on my view of coming recession. People can dump btc/crypto 24/7. Hard to liquidate other assets

that quickly. But in my view also is that btc in what I see as the coming recession will pump much more than bonds/stocks and gold.

Anyway, always remember only what you can afford to lose...this is speculation. Bit easier for me and other OG bitcointalk members here that HODL

1) we have seen this dance before and 2) it really, really, really would have to be a deep depression in the USA to affect us and 3) always remember

Blackrock really, really, really, really wants my btc rather then mine it. Smiley
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October 11, 2025, 09:01:16 PM


Explanation
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October 11, 2025, 09:48:45 PM

R.I.P.

Diane Keaton


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October 11, 2025, 09:49:56 PM

Even if the dip was deep, it wasn't obviously deep enough.
Why?
Because nobody posted the according rollercoaster.gif  Grin



Even if you don't plan to sell. HODL. At least set an 'imaginary' date of some kind, that you might sell.

Mine is 2035, when 99% of all BTC have been mined. Again, don't plan to sell even then. But hey,

puts a bit of perspective (in my case since 2013) on the what 20-25th dump of btc crashing since then? (been a lot)

just saying

BTC will dump more then stock market on my view of coming recession. People can dump btc/crypto 24/7. Hard to liquidate other assets

that quickly. But in my view also is that btc in what I see as the coming recession will pump much more than bonds/stocks and gold.

Anyway, always remember only what you can afford to lose...this is speculation. Bit easier for me and other OG bitcointalk members here that HODL

1) we have seen this dance before and 2) it really, really, really would have to be a deep depression in the USA to affect us and 3) always remember

Blackrock really, really, really, really wants my btc rather then mine it. Smiley

+1 W.O.
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October 11, 2025, 10:00:56 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (11), LoyceV (6), vapourminer (1), d_eddie (1), AlcoHoDL (1), bitserve (1)

I don't know why even hardened holders are impressed by this momentary 20% crash, which is currently 11%ish from the last ATH. These are normal things even during the most successful 2017 year. There were more and bigger crashes back then. IMO, this increases the chances that in the next weeks we will have a more significant ATH than the previous ant ATH's. If you noticed, every 2-3% jump was immediately neutralized, unlike other traditional assets. The explanation is more than obvious: too many high leverage long positions. However, now that billions of long positions have been liquidated, the resistance will be much less. We need 1 day to get close to the ATH and 1 more to have a new one. The other important question is whether we will have a 2-year winter like so far. The lack of exponential bull market, unfortunately, does not guarantee that we will not see a 50%+ drop from the ATH. However, I think that the previous 4-year cycles are starting to fade. Something like a transition from a temperate climate to a subtropical one. Winter and summer will alternate every year and with smaller amplitudes. The reason is the transition from retail driven market to institutional one. All of this is just my guess, I may be very far from the truth in the end. So if someone has a different view on the matter, I would not argue, all possibilities are almost equally probable at the moment.
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October 11, 2025, 10:01:14 PM


Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
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October 11, 2025, 10:03:28 PM

While this is starting to look like a bit of inconvenience for my short term plans... if I am counting right...  this one just started could be the good old third leg down in this dump. So let's just "seal" it with some proper volume (and maybe a proudhon post for additional assurance) and get back to business as usual. C'on let them shorts pile up once again.

... Or maybe Bitcoin has really changed and its dying... again.
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October 11, 2025, 10:47:02 PM
Last edit: October 11, 2025, 11:06:30 PM by vapourminer

[...] extra stresses [...]

haha bitcoin is the most stress free investment ever at this point

ok, well for low cost basis folk anyway.

but hey folks if one hodls long enough yall may be saying the same thing to btc noobs like two cycles from now

not financial advice
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