I see Ambatman wants to take on LFC_Bitcoin in a bet too. Same stake and bet terms as JJG and myself?
Yes same Stake.
And same terms.
If so, deal.
Go for it LFC, it's a risk free bet for you because whatever the market does, you win. If it creates a new ATH, you meet your targets and if it refuses, you use rhe amount won as consolation.
Exactly.
By far the worst case scenario here is actually winning this bet
But I will get a little pocket money from them if I win
Anybody else?
Edit - Disclaimer: Full Member minimum to bet against me.
Personally, I think that you should limit it to the first 20 or 50 or 100... and also by a certain deadline (such as so long as the price stays below $116k on or before October 31 or something like that)..
Otherwise it could get a bit messy.. . even if you might consider the whole thing as a kind of fun (or a hedge). I would think that you would want to approve each one too. .besides merely being at least "full member," since there might be some full members who might not trust to pay.. so they would ONLY be taking one side of the bet.. .. the side where you are paying them.
@LoyceV
I say no ATH from now until 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026. The stake is 0.001 Bitcoin (they are both betting against me so two separate bets).
JayJuanGee and Ambatman both say there will be an ATH before 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026.
To confirm I want to lose these bets, financially that works out much better for me than winning the bets and being a measly 0.002 Bitcoin better off.
Edit - Nice to see Bitcoin showing a pulse today @ 109.4k
It does come off as a bit strange to enter into a bet with a goal of losing the bet... even though I understand the hedging angle, or even the attempt to be financially and emotionally neutral about the bet(s) outcome.
I say no ATH from now until 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026. The stake is 0.001 Bitcoin (they are both betting against me so two separate bets).
JayJuanGee and Ambatman both say there will be an ATH before 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026.
So: if Bitcoin is $50k, you win $100. But if Bitcoin is $250k, you pay $500. You should have opted for a dollar bet value
Sucks to be LFC.
We can renegotiate if you want, LFC.
I don't give too many shits about the bet... even though I am glad that we made it.
I say no ATH from now until 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026. The stake is 0.001 Bitcoin (they are both betting against me so two separate bets).
JayJuanGee and Ambatman both say there will be an ATH before 00:00 UTC time on April 1, 2026.
So: if Bitcoin is $50k, you win $100. But if Bitcoin is $250k, you pay $500. You should have opted for a dollar bet value
Surely I would pay out when an ATH is hit. So it hits tomorrow for example, I send them both 0.001 Bitcoin. The April 1st deadline is basically giving it that long to make an ATH. No ATH by end of Q1 2026. If ATH hits tomorrow I’m not going to wait until April 1st to pay out.
That is true. We did not specifically clarify that part, yet it should have had been clear that the bet would be payable within a reasonable period of time once the ATH is reached... so perhaps within a few days or if for some reason you were not available then soon after your becoming available. ..
On my end, if the BTC price were to not reach an ATH prior to the 0:00 April 1, 2026 deadline, then I would pay within a reasonable time after the deadline had passed.... and in either case, once the terms of the bet is made in one direction or another, the receiving party would have to provide some kind of a reasonable address.. such as bitcoin or lightning.. If fees remain low, like they are now, then there would be nothing wrong with an onchain transaction.
It would be 0.001 BTC each when I see the price hit ATH. It could be 131k or 141k or even crash to 121k by the time I send. The only guarantee is 0.001 Bitcoin each when/if we see a new ATH before end of Q1 2026.
@JayJuanGee confirm?
That sounds correct.. within a reasonable time, and sure if something happens to you in which you are temporarily incapacitated or reasonably unavailable, then no problem with the honor system in these kinds of matters.. so long as it is not turning out weird, since if it is turning out weird, then guys might end up red tagging the other account, which I doubt would even be an issue between you and me, even though it could come up if you are randomly accepting a variety of other bets.. .. and that is on you in regards to any side bets,.
I suppose that I would be willing to entertain if their might be some other members who agree with LFC, yet I surely would want to make sure that individually vet any other member who might want the same or similar terms as LFC has with me (and our bet).
OK last one -
I'm in on this😁😁
I'm betting 0.0005 that BTC will reach ATH before April.
Last one..
hahahahahaha.
Early bird gets the
work worm, so to speak.
[edited out]
And is it 126.3k or 126.5k
What number is the ath that must be topped.
I assume at bitstamp.
We already discussed.
The ATH on Bitstamp is $126,272.. So I imagine that it would have to touch upon $126,273 before the striking of midnight 0.00 on April 1, 2026 for me to win the bet. If it does not happen, then LFC wins the bet.
Here is an interesting question to ponder (at least for me)...prompted by @LFC saying that he retired in his thirties.
The question is: what would be your formula for an optional retirement?
Obviously, there is the whole enchilada of advisers focusing on a 4% number (safe withdrawal rate aka SWR).
To get SWR, calculate your assets value (not counting the primary residence), multiply the number by 0.04-and this is your maximum yearly spend.
However, there is a second number that should be considered, imho.
This is the proportion between your SWR and your salary (or other work related income).
Perhaps, if your SWR is at least 2-3X your work salary, then the work later in life becomes optional?
If you are not doing something at the job that pleases you, maybe quitting a job is a way to go with a caveat that your expenses would have to include self-financing your health insurance if you are less than 65 yo-at least in US.
Thoughts?
You may well be correct that with traditional investments, there might be some need to make sure that the withdrawal amount is quite a bit greater than the current income from work, and there is some validity in using some variation of your current income so that you already are accustomed to your standard of living.
i personally believe that so long as a person is using the 200WMA as his valuation of his BTC, then he could anticipate getting up to a 7% per year increase in his withdrawal rate. There is nothing wrong with starting out more conservative or even having a bit of a financial cushion to make sure that the withdrawal rate works and the principle is not getting depleted through the putting of the withdrawal system into practice.
Of course, if a guy fails/refuses to adequately account for all of his expenses and/or even the tax ramifications of his withdrawals, that would not be a good position to be in, and so each guy has to make sure that he does not fuck up in his calculations and to ongoingly verify that he is not overly withdrawing in such a way that overly depletes the funds.
It seems to me that Bitcoin can have a formula that is different from other assets, and there may well be preferences to deplete other assets rather than spending from the BTC that may well have the capacity to be growing better than other assets (no guarantee of course, so sometimes there will be needs for various cushions (or surpluses) in the amounts)..
[edited out]
100-65=35
So planning for the coins to last 65 years is more than conservative.
For me, sustainable means perpetual, which means forever, which is longer than 65 years. Of course, the formula could change later down the road where a decision to drain the funds rather than to keep them perpetual ends up coming into the situation based on changed circumstances.
If European based no need to put a ton aside for medical
If USA medical is nuts. 40k a year for wife self and kids is a good policy. Plan for it to go up 7%
And planning for salary to go up 6% seems safe enough. Since you are doing medical at 7%
For sure, some expenses seem to be higher than other kinds of expenses... which might be a reason to have some extra cushion in the amount of funds that are being used to calculate the income and also to calculate some extra side cushion in case some of the calculations might not have had been correct.
I am 68
So 100-68= 32
I make over 100k under 200k but they are pensions and btc income.
So if I do not want to fear that orange man steals the pensions and crushes the insurances I have I need 6 million
I could live the same life even if the pensions and insurance is stolen. Obviously if the pensions and insurances are good. I can live better . IE I could spend 200k a year beyond what I have now for 32 years.
Of course, there are always chances that some income sources will disappear, and it is not just about orange man.. since he could keel over any minute... the old fart.
I personally think that if you expect to currently have a $160k income, then that is double the $80k in several of my historical presentations... which
would be a need to have 29.5942 coins right now, which you could increase your income 7% per year.
Yet if you want to start with
$160k in 4 years, then that would be right around 7.6 BTC at the end of 2029.
If 35 family of four. 12 million in coin . That is 105 coins should work.
It seems to me that in BTC the formula is not different, even though the starting date might not be clear, but if the guy is starting right now and he wants to have an income of $160k to start, with a 7% per year increase, then he is still starting with slightly less than 30 BTC. Sure, if you want his starting income and/or withdrawal rate to be higher than $160k then the amount would change, but I doubt that the mere fact that he has a family of four or that he is going to live longer is going to require 3x the quantity of BTC, since hopefully he is calculating his withdrawal rate based on bitcoin to be growing faster than his withdrawal rate.
And, yeah, sure we can disagree on what those numbers are (and/or should be) in order to sustain the requisite standard of living.
Cashing 10 coins should cover me for 5 years or more. Still leaves me with 95.
I doubt you need that many coins, except, sure if you are selling way too many coins too soon, then sure you might run out of coins.
[edited out]
My solution: Live modestly on retirement stuff (traditional) stay out of debt....pay bills each month...live modestly on paid off house..travel...on this income etc
BTC since 2015 (don't touch) till at least 2035 when 99% has been mined. 2035 is simply a mental quide post...likely won't touch it then either.
This is not a good solution if you need it now..
And then how many coins are you saying that you would need in 2035?
You seem to be failing to account for the power of bitcoin's likely ongoing price appreciation... but yeah, of course, you can figure out your own formulas, yet it would be problematic if you were to end up with way more bitcoin than you really need to carry out your plan.. . which means that you could have had started to benefit from the quantity of your coins earlier, especially if you already have enough or more than enough.
live within your means for above...boring got you to HODL btc/crypto and staying boring will likely get you to continue to HODL btc/crypto
also driving a 2012 Ford Fusion SEL so no one suspects I even have a btc/crypto trust I've not touched since 2015.
Nothing wrong with NOT being too flashy.
To newbs....buy btc 'dust' and HODL till 2035 for giggles..it went up 10x since 2020 it could easily go up 10x by 2035..IF not it is not like it can do any worse with
Sure if you are brand new to bitcoin, then you might have to struggle to build up a bitcoin portfolio, and you might not even be able to get to 1 whole bitcoin, even if you were buying $300 worth of bitcoin each week for the next 10 years. That would be around $15,600 per year invested and $156k invested over 10 years, which I doubt would even be enough to have had accumulated 1 whole bitcoin.
US Bonds IMHO till 2035 don't ya know...myself (4th or recession) such a recession is coming..too much $$$ printed and no adult'ing in govt and society as such
As they say on StarTrek or if your Airliner goes down:
Brace! Brace! Brace! It took us a few years for the world to get into this state of affairs it is gonna take a few
years to get out of such, IMHO.
If I am right...no recession as such..btc/crypto pumps you are golden .....if I am right and it all goes to hell same ...btc may be fine...at this point a lsuch ot of OG and others can
only 'fail upwards' IMHO no matter how bad society gets in the next few years and/or recession etc.
I think as far as getting more btc dust (or some for newbs) you can only fail upwards....if bad times, IMHO all other assets will do much worse then btc/crypto of whatever
There still is a need to both accumulate bitcoin and to stay focused on it for the next 10 years as you say.. so accumulating bitcoin does not just happen.
flavor.
Then again: I post too much again on bitcointalk so 'obviously' I know zip...do your own research etc
p.s. dress like a farmer and drive a 2012 Ford Fusion SEL ...put your btc/crytpo gains in a trust (bimbo proof) no one will suspect your fiendish plotting on HODL.
I doubt guys can do the exact same thing as you, and I am not even sure if that is practical. . .but sure, maybe it will work for some guys. perhaps? The devil is in the details.. and needs to execute over 10-ish years and to monitor, from time to time, how things go along the way.
Poll
