Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

I’ve been watching Polymarket to see where the gamblers think the Bitcoin market will go. Interestingly, right now it is showing some wide results. It seems people are split on whether we are going to the moon or crashing before the end of the year, showing not many people believe we’ll be stable.

42% = >$130K
*22% = $90K-$130K
36% = <$90K

*inferred

er..hasn't this been the 'normal spit' of views on Bitcoin since 2013 when I got into it?....Only the amounts have changed....

[Searing]

The day started with dump below 108K, and now ending with pump above 112K almost 113K. And gold down 5% for the first time in months. This is interesting. Bear market over?  

and as I see this we are back at $108K....just another day in Bitcoin HODL'ing....we are like a cat with a laser pointer...moment to moment is important.... (wait.....pounce).

[Searing]

I’m beginning to wonder if the economy is going to be able to hold up long enough for Bitcoin to hit a new high. Gofundme has warned that people have started crowdfunding money to buy groceries. A house in my neighborhood just sold for 30% below the price at the peak. A ton of government employees have been let go this year and a ton more are about to be fired. People are self-deporting. Amazon is replacing half a million employees with robots. JP Morgan is warning that we may be headed into a recession. China is playing hardball… I’m aggressively selling call options in hopes they hit and trigger sales so I can reduce my exposure to the economy. I guess we’ll see how smart that is in a year.

I've said before that we are do for a correction (recession) mild/regular/heavy no clue....

btc imho will dump hardest if people are laid off and house equity is not there and cc are maxed etc....will go there rather then to traditional investments (broker) or

get a loan.....have to talk to people and look stupid and justify withdrawals or a loan...ech...

that will pass

the top 1% doubled their $$$ in assets in 2020 pandemic and I expect the same on the next correction if not more so

my 'vision' is HODL and some more 'btc dust' and stay out of debt and don't trip off a curb in front of a truck...simple goals

as to everyone else with supposed health insurance increases/layoffs/and the rest (current new cc interest rate is 23% or so my Coinbase Capital One Card I just got

that pays 4% a year in BTC depending partially on what you HODL on Coinbase to get over 2%) I 'do' plan and 'can' pay each month so does not affect me..but really?

23% FML

so put aside some cash for if bad times come....worse case you end up with a surplus in anticipation....best case none of your preparations are needed

The top 1% folk are like an Iceberg..it does just fine and everything just gets out of the way as it slowly chugs along....with rising tide and stock market and

btc and other speculations and investments...all is well

if bad times like an iceberg rolling over into a new shape...simply double their money ...the top 1% by buying under valued assets for the future recovery

bottom end or top end..it is still an iceberg chugging along. Do suspect on this next downturn the top 1% are gonna make a lot more $$$ in 1-4 years then

just 'doubling' their money though..

be an Iceberg

accumulate btc and HODL in either of the above scenarios.

always remember I know zip..just an old fart OG on Bitcointalk....

[Vaculin]

Another Day, Another FUD 

Now they’re saying Bitcoin “faces tough resistance” and might fall again, same old story every time the market goes quiet.

Analysts love to throw FUD whenever BTC stops pumping. But if you’ve been around long enough, you already know how this game goes.

First comes fear, then boredom… and then boom, the next breakout catches everyone sleeping.

Maybe Bitcoin’s struggling around $110k right now, but that’s fine.

Weak hands panic, strong hands stack. Same cycle, different headline.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Faces Tough Path as Long-Term Holders Keep Selling

Long-term Bitcoin holders are cashing out, creating sustained sell pressure that’s slowing the market’s recovery.
On-chain data shows realized profits hit $1.7B per day while revived supply from old wallets reached $2.9B.
Analysts say Bitcoin remains supported near $108,700, but resistance above $110,000 could limit upside.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

Weak hands panic, strong hands stack. Same cycle, different headline.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Faces Tough Path as Long-Term Holders Keep Selling

Long-term Bitcoin holders are cashing out, creating sustained sell pressure that’s slowing the market’s recovery.
On-chain data shows realized profits hit $1.7B per day while revived supply from old wallets reached $2.9B.
Analysts say Bitcoin remains supported near $108,700, but resistance above $110,000 could limit upside.

No way, Sherlock, someone is selling corn to get some profits.

Balchunas also discovered hot water:


I personally have been only spending and replacing, but I guess my behaviour could have been different if I had '000 of bitcoin to partially temporarily convert into shit-denominated currency accepted by my local bank.
Wondering how many on this thread did the same.

[Vaculin]

Weak hands panic, strong hands stack. Same cycle, different headline.

Analyst Says Bitcoin Faces Tough Path as Long-Term Holders Keep Selling

Long-term Bitcoin holders are cashing out, creating sustained sell pressure that’s slowing the market’s recovery.
On-chain data shows realized profits hit $1.7B per day while revived supply from old wallets reached $2.9B.
Analysts say Bitcoin remains supported near $108,700, but resistance above $110,000 could limit upside.

No way, Sherlock, someone is selling corn to get some profits.

Balchunas also discovered hot water:


I personally have been only spending and replacing, but I guess my behaviour could have been different if I had '000 of bitcoin to partially temporarily convert into shit-denominated currency accepted by my local bank.
Wondering how many on this thread did the same.

This Eric guy works mainly on ETFs and passive fund research under Bloomberg. Basically, his world revolves around traditional finance the same system Bitcoin was created to escape from.

So when he talks about Bitcoin like it’s just another investment product, don’t be surprised. He’s trying to make Bitcoin look like fiat.. controlled, regulated, and institutionalized. People like him don’t see Bitcoin as freedom, they see it as another asset to fit into their Wall Street box. And that’s exactly the opposite of what Bitcoin was meant to be.

[Charcol]

I read that Bitcoin creator Satoshi supposedly has about 1.1 million bTC...with a market value of about $121 billion...and I heard he hasn't moved it yet..!!!

I recently read an article that asked if Bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto would move BTC from his wallet this year? Four Polymarket users bet over $62,000 on this...

Now my question is:

How logical is this??
Will Satoshi really move BTC?? 
And if he doesn't think he will, then does Satoshi control his wallet himself...?


Source

[somac.]

Someone just sent me this chart that shows coins received to exchange. Almost half of the selling is from 6m -12m holders, a lot of those should be taking a loss at these levels. Also plenty of sellers from 1y - 5y holders.

So many holders selling.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LoyceV]

I recently read an article that asked if Bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto would move BTC from his wallet this year? Four Polymarket users bet over $62,000 on this...

This sounds more like market manipulation than anything else: make people believe the market will be flooded with a million Bitcoin, to push the price down. That makes it a very cheap manipulation.

[JayJuanGee]

Congrats to the Blue Jays. I thought Seattle was gonna take it for sure.

Last time they did this, I was at a friend's wedding as a guest and the videographer (with zero qualifications for that job @JJG) - it was one of the Saturday games of the World Series final and the manager of the wedding hall set up a TV in one of the back rooms.  Most of the men disappeared, including the groom, to watch the ball game only venturing back to the main hall for more drinks.  There were a lot of angry women at that wedding.  Man... that was  lifetime ago!  Thirty-two years.  (Sadly, the marriage didn't last long enough for them to watch the Jays in another World Series).

At first I was wondering about my attention being drawn to this matter, and now, I think that I get it... since at some historical point (way back when), I was proclaiming that you (homer) did not have any material and/or relevant skills, except perhaps random ones... ..

Largely, I stand by my earlier assertion, especially since I may well could have had been exaggerating to make another point related to your subtle (or not so subtle) suggestion that you might be able to carry out our other Jay's duties better than he himself.

Look!!!!

Coincidentally (or not?), this post refers to at least 3 Jays.

Worst Bart ever.

Have you been allowing LFC to rub off on you?

Sometimes there can be various advantages in barts like that... are we faked out to the upside or to the downside or just trying to play the whole thing in mostly a financially and emotionally neutral manner?

I am not going to proclaim to have had personally profited from such bart, today or any other day.  Maybe I made 0.001 BTC (coincidentally 100k satoshis) from such Bartenning?  Perhaps?

[edited out]

I've said before that we are do for a correction (recession) mild/regular/heavy no clue....

That's the trillion dollar question, yet the devil is in the details.  You seem to be suggesting that bitcoin is nothing special in the whole scheme of things, and so it will largely crash just like everything else.


Even if you are drawing upon BTC's prce moves from 2020, you can see that bitcoin crashed from $7.2k-ish to $3,800, but then it recovered and we are now right around $108k.  That is around 28x from the bottom and around 15x from the top.

No matter how you slice it bitcoin is not performing the same as various traditional assets, even if traditional assets might have had doubled in their nominal price since 2020.

I am not really buying your specifics of the doom and gloom for bitcoin, even though sure it likely does  not hurt to have both bitcoin and dry powder.. yet at the same time, we might  have up in bitcoin prior to the crash that you are anticipating.. so then is bitcoin really down relative to other places that you might choose to place value?

The punchline seems to be that any of us who have been in bitcoin for anything more than a whole cycle (and even more so for a couple of cycles or more), then we likely are a lot more prepared for whatever volatility that might come as compared with folks who don't have any bitcoin.

[somac.]

I recently read an article that asked if Bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto would move BTC from his wallet this year? Four Polymarket users bet over $62,000 on this...

This sounds more like market manipulation than anything else: make people believe the market will be flooded with a million Bitcoin, to push the price down. That makes it a very cheap manipulation.

Well the price is going down.

I believe a lot of these are genuine sellers (idiots though). People rotating into shitcoins thinking they'll boom like the last cycles (they are going to be massively disappointed), old holders selling for fiat (for some fucking bizarre reason), fools who are getting scared that it is all over (despite global liquidity skyrocketing and mass printing on the horizon to maintain/expand debt levels). Maybe the rest are the manipulators encouraging the people I previously mentioned.

[Tonimez]

I personally have been only spending and replacing, but I guess my behaviour could have been different if I had '000 of bitcoin to partially temporarily convert into shit-denominated currency accepted by my local bank.
Wondering how many on this thread did the same.

I rather leave mine for later. Haven't crossed a cycle so why spend mine, I HODL. Yours might have gone beyond 2 or more cycles.Your coin, your teeth do with it what you like. It's not a bad idea though but I can't risk it. I won't get stucked to the chart when I can rightly sleep and check later when I'm ready to buy more

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Franklyn-wood]

My little queen brought back a squirrel once. She ate the entire poor animal except the tail. The thing was huge as well... She could really eat.

She was really smart like you would not believe. She made it to a proud 20 years.

I love pets like this and I don't waste time adopting them as quick as possible.
These human like specie do mimic us as most time they express their warm hearted stance when we are sad or in uncomfortable conditions.

My kittens and puppies do walk up to me on bed giving me the cutest smiles as a good morning compliment for taking care of us.
They like reciprocating every single kindness you show them, they are awesome.

Last time they did this, I was at a friend's wedding as a guest and the videographer (with zero qualifications for that job @JJG) - it was one of the Saturday games of the World Series final and the manager of the wedding hall set up a TV in one of the back rooms.  Most of the men disappeared, including the groom, to watch the ball game only venturing back to the main hall for more drinks.  There were a lot of angry women at that wedding.

We are at it again this shows how men priority can change immediately when their favorite sport is involved.
I wouldn't blame anyone for this and I guess it must have been the woman that fixed the date for the wedding hahaha. Men that are sport enthusiastic would never allow sweet day like this to deprive them of their favorite matches(sweet sport).
We all have weakness, perhaps sport could be number one never to joke with.

Coincidentally (or not?), this post refers to at least 3 Jays.

The 3 Jays = Jay + Juan + Gee
A legendary Bitcointalk advocator known for his deep Bitcoin discussion and strategy.

The punchline seems to be that any of us who have been in bitcoin for anything more than a whole cycle (and even more so for a couple of cycles or more), then we likely are a lot more prepared for whatever volatility that might come as compared with folks who don't have any bitcoin.

In this recent time, we have been seeing a great input in the number of greedy so called holders looking for ways to deprived others of the opportunity of standing with Bitcoin. These are not just ordinary men/holders, they are like institutions that are working with each other to make large gain through manipulative moves to make people sell their Bitcoin so they can buy again at lower price. This is not the work of one person per say but a community pushing for fud so others could sell with the intention to buyback when the price of Bitcoin has dipped enough.

They like fud the market telling us Bitcoin will fall to a certain price and this can make more people to dump while they prepare to rebuy in disguise. This shit does not emanate this recent time but has been the pattern of their community to regain the market while people are panicking. Once people start believing that Bitcoin will have a fall in price, it will definitely happen because news move the market.
I have a strong stance with Bitcoin even when the sun is setting. No bad energy against the mighty digit asset of all(Bitcoin).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Nice bull market we got there.

108k to 114k to give us hope and then slam it straight back down to 108k with the threat of going even lower. We’re in grave danger of ending the year lower than we started it in a supposed bull market.

We can’t have a proper, sustained bull with Trump and his retarded FUD tariff war. His creepy little sons in the background profiting off our misery with insider knowledge.

Make no mistake about it, we’d be at 150k now without Trump’s influence on this market. I believe there is institutional, high grade price suppression going on too. Deep pockets don’t want Bitcoin to moon. This isn’t the way it was supposed to be this year, extremely disappointing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cygan]

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