Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Abelly]

So they can accumulate from three main sources now.

1.  Miners.  Whatever the miners are selling is getting snapped up every day.
2.  OGs.  There are thousands of bitcoiners who are at a point now who feel they can live off their bitcoin, while being able to survive even the unlikely ~80% winter.  There will be more of these people each cycle (or period of time). And even the ones who were set in one of the last "cycles" may still be selling.  Even if they are selling just small amounts to maintain a baseline lifestyle I would imagine there are enough to provide quite a bit of the reason why we are flat for 2025.
3.  The people who either do not understand bitcoin or are just weak.  People who see it as an investment.  Maybe got into an ETF and now want to lock in the "gains" before the crypto bear they hear about constantly.

Best way to shake as many coins loose from each?

1.Miners: Natural sellers with big capex/opex and razor thin margins (always selling)
2.OGs: Create confusion by violating all established tradable patterns. Convince em wild wild gains are over but winters might not be- and that this is a good, historically high price to sell at for "diversification", bear "hedging" and the finer things in life. (currently happening)
3.Noobs: Scare/greed em out on 10-20% moves in either direction. "CUT YOUR LOOSE" (currently happening)

My guess is number 2 more than anything else.

If you got in early but not a crazy amount of coins say 50 coins or less

Selling 2  gives you 220k which could allow a long hodl

But many in that spot may be selling 10 coins which could allow for 7 to 8 years of living.

Agree... I think assuming that someone with double digit BTC holdings could be either selling as you suggest or even doing the DCA sort of withdrawals.  Older holders might not need as much behind while the younger ones might want to start this with a bigger stack.  At a 0.5-1.5 BTC/year burn rate even a family can be supported.  And if the person keeps outside income then the number can be less.

I imagine a LOT of people in BTC for 10+ years are using their value for things other than savings now.

In which case the buy pressure is NATURALLY biased more to the sell at retail than it has been in the past.  While the buying pressure is in the dark pools of OTC.

Finally... here is a chart of the balances held in exchanges...  It has been dropping for more than a year and is accelerating seemingly.

I agree with you, it is a completely logical observation, long-term holders are now gradually using their accumulated BTC to meet living expenses, or to invest in new opportunities, this is creating natural supply pressure in the market, but it is not a panic sale like before, but rather an indication of stable usage.

At the same time, the continuous decline in exchange balances shows that real holders are now also, Self Custody, which is a bullish signal in the long term.

The retail buying avalanche or, Retail bias, is increasing especially because new investors have made small amounts of DCA, while the old ones have gradually withdrawn, it is actually a kind of generational change, those who saved before are now using, and those who are new are starting to collect!

[ESG]

~
Explanation
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 -Hey Buddy, you haven't rested for more than days...and the waxingMoon today, are together with jupiter and saturn, and least three days to full moon...still the price are not more full...when full price?
....

-i did a searsh about hunt crabs, and assistant ai of browser, answer this >

I've hunted for those, although where I live there is no sea, sometimes I go, and it's been a while,
  I always set some traps. And they screw into the lines of the net, just put it in the hot water and it's ready.

-Tasty and nutritious.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[DaRude]

I imagine a LOT of people in BTC for 10+ years are using their value for things other than savings now.

Having a large amount of savings is cool. However, there are things out there that are cooler…



Don’t get caught up thinking you’ll live forever. You should use Bitcoin to improve your life, not let Bitcoin use your life to increase its price.

And how exactly that crap on wheels will improve my life?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[El duderino_]

Will we see another Sunday pump?

[El duderino_]

I imagine a LOT of people in BTC for 10+ years are using their value for things other than savings now.

Having a large amount of savings is cool. However, there are things out there that are cooler…



Don’t get caught up thinking you’ll live forever. You should use Bitcoin to improve your life, not let Bitcoin use your life to increase its price.

And how exactly that crap on wheels will improve my life?

Its not about the car... everyone got his own guilty pleasures, mine for example is having time to do my things, like being able to crossfit in the morning at 10 o clock, doing a lot of holidays and exploring different places...

for some its a cybertruck it seems...

We all just have some different ideas of what pleasure etc is.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

Will we see another Sunday pump?

For today, it's trying, but not quite there.

But sure, we will see a lot of Sunday pumps.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[JayJuanGee]

The burger chain now holds Bitcoin in their treasury and donates 210 sats per meal to OpenSats.
They even said using BTC payments helped them cut card fees by almost 50%.

This is what real adoption looks like, businesses actually using Bitcoin, not just trading it.

Steak ‘n Shake has launched a Bitcoin treasury, pledging to store all BTC payments from restaurant sales in a strategic reserve.
For every “Bitcoin Meal” sold, the company will donate 210 sats to OpenSats, supporting Bitcoin Core and open-source development.
The chain credits Bitcoin users for driving double-digit sales growth and cutting payment processing fees by roughly 50%.

I ate there tonight in fact.

Should we assume that you paid with bitcoin?  Lightning network or something else? 

If you paid with bitcoin, then how was the process (on a deep down and personal level)?

[Paashaas]

Option A.

Bitcoin will not leave current channel reaching $130,000, ends the bull.

Option B.

Bitcoin leaves the channel maxing out $160,000 - $200,000+

I go for option B because Bitcoin still missing the fase going vertical with a blow- off pump. It's part of the bull martket dynamics and it could extend into Q1 2026.

[WatChe]

So we expect another win for JJG here?

I think members knowledge will increase only after they lose bets with JJG.

It is not over until it is over, and surely I am not even expecting that my odds are close to certain, even though there is some benefit in having 5 months to see if it happens... but yeah, if we go below $85k I will start to think I lost for sure (even though I probably would not pay before then end of the timeline, since even some fairly bad set of circumstances might not completely rule out a new ATH prior to the end of the 1st quarter of 2026. 

Even staying below $95k for any extended period of time, such as more than a couple of weeks, might bring the top for this cycle (and whether it is "in" - in line with LFC's proposition) into question.

The positive thing about Bitcoin price is that it's price is closing above 100k for almost last 6 months. That's an indication of stability.

But Bitcoin price is very uncertain to predict. I remember Dec 2019, it was fully bullish and we saw Bitcoin rising to it's ATH of 19k that month. The price prediction for 2018 was 100k but we saw Bitcoin at 3500$ in Dec 2018.

We all would love to see Bitcoin rising to it's ATH in first quarter of 2026 but for that our dearest and nearest JJG has to pay some bucks (which I am sure is not an issue for JJG).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[AlcoHoDL]

Picture 1 Picture 2

They're the same picture!

OK, so I posted the above, which was based on my overall sense of how Bitcoin behaves when zoomed in to the month/week/day level. But then I thought, is this really true? Is Bitcoin's monthly/weekly/daily performance really random? Well, I'm currently on a long holiday leave, so I have plenty of time on my hands, so why not analyze some real historical price data to test things out?

So I fired up MATLAB and downloaded Bitstamp's BTC/USD historical price data for day open/close prices, from 2016 up to now (3721 days). I then plotted each day's price performance in terms of daily loss (in red) and daily gain (in green). Each dot is one day, and the horizontal axis spans 2 months per row. Note that there may be a shift by a couple of dots per row, as I'm assuming a 366-day year. Here's what came out:



...which confirms and experimentally proves that zooming in to the day level results in a random loss/gain pattern. I postulate that the same holds true to the weekly and monthly levels, hence my original post.

And then I thought: instead of showing loss in red and gain in green, as a 0/1 state, it would be more interesting to show the actual day close - open differences in USD. This should clearly show the 4-year cycles and how the daily fluctuations have played out over the years. And that's what I did. I used a heat map, starting with black (for maximum loss) up to white (for maximum gain), and shades of orange (Bitcoin's trademark color) in between. Sure enough, the 4-year cycles appeared in full glory. Here's the resulting heat map:



I hope you like the results, and I hope they help you change your mind if you were thinking of selling your corn!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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