Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

Picture 1 Picture 2

They're the same picture!

OK, so I posted the above, which was based on my overall sense of how Bitcoin behaves when zoomed in to the month/week/day level. But then I thought, is this really true? Is Bitcoin's monthly/weekly/daily performance really random? Well, I'm currently on a long holiday leave, so I have plenty of time on my hands, so why not analyze some real historical price data to test things out?

So I fired up MATLAB and downloaded Bitstamp's BTC/USD historical price data for day open/close prices, from 2016 up to now (3721 days). I then plotted each day's price performance in terms of daily loss (in red) and daily gain (in green). Each dot is one day, and the horizontal axis spans 2 months per row. Note that there may be a shift by a couple of dots per row, as I'm assuming a 366-day year. Here's what came out:



...which confirms and experimentally proves that zooming in to the day level results in a random loss/gain pattern. I postulate that the same holds true to the weekly and monthly levels, hence my original post.

And then I thought: instead of showing loss in red and gain in green, as a 0/1 state, it would be more interesting to show the actual day close - open differences in USD. This should clearly show the 4-year cycles and how the daily fluctuations have played out over the years. And that's what I did. I used a heat map, starting with black (for maximum loss) up to white (for maximum gain), and shades of orange (Bitcoin's trademark color) in between. Sure enough, the 4-year cycles appeared in full glory. Here's the resulting heat map:



I hope you like the results, and I hope they help you change your mind if you were thinking of selling your corn!

I see a longer cycle of uppity in the 2024-2025 area as compare to the 2020-2021 area.


So it means that the 4 year cycle is expanding So uppity should go further deeper and longer than ever. (sounds hot to me)

[AlcoHoDL]

Picture 1 Picture 2

They're the same picture!

OK, so I posted the above, which was based on my overall sense of how Bitcoin behaves when zoomed in to the month/week/day level. But then I thought, is this really true? Is Bitcoin's monthly/weekly/daily performance really random? Well, I'm currently on a long holiday leave, so I have plenty of time on my hands, so why not analyze some real historical price data to test things out?

So I fired up MATLAB and downloaded Bitstamp's BTC/USD historical price data for day open/close prices, from 2016 up to now (3721 days). I then plotted each day's price performance in terms of daily loss (in red) and daily gain (in green). Each dot is one day, and the horizontal axis spans 2 months per row. Note that there may be a shift by a couple of dots per row, as I'm assuming a 366-day year. Here's what came out:



...which confirms and experimentally proves that zooming in to the day level results in a random loss/gain pattern. I postulate that the same holds true to the weekly and monthly levels, hence my original post.

And then I thought: instead of showing loss in red and gain in green, as a 0/1 state, it would be more interesting to show the actual day close - open differences in USD. This should clearly show the 4-year cycles and how the daily fluctuations have played out over the years. And that's what I did. I used a heat map, starting with black (for maximum loss) up to white (for maximum gain), and shades of orange (Bitcoin's trademark color) in between. Sure enough, the 4-year cycles appeared in full glory. Here's the resulting heat map:



I hope you like the results, and I hope they help you change your mind if you were thinking of selling your corn!

I see a longer cycle of uppity in the 2024-2025 area as compare to the 2020-2021 area.

So it means that the 4 year cycle is expanding So uppity should go further deeper and longer than ever. (sounds hot to me)

Yes, you're right, I noticed that too (after I posted). Good catch, and good for upcoming prices -- we're still in the hot part of the cycle!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

The Dude does CrossFit,
I do athletic walking.
Coiners keeping fit.

A wave of trollers.
They come, they shit, then they go.
Stupid know-it-alls!

Core 30 update?
BIP-444 forkening?
Luke a cat-eater?

No need to worry.
Badger will take care of it.
We'll know soon enough.

I see some coiners,
Filling their bags with fiat.
A wise move, for sure!

Fed up with ramen?
Be careful what you wish for.
Mud cookies are next!

UP- or DOWN-vember?
Don't stress it. Chill. Throw a dice.
We've already won!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[AakZaki]

Bitcoin's price is still being rejected at $111,000 due to the strong Fibonacci 0.618 resistance level. I believe that after breaking through this level, Bitcoin's price will slowly reach the next resistance level of around $113,300-$116,400, then surge to $125,255, and finally to its all-time high of $139,600-$153,950.

The RSI indicator is still neutral, while the MACD indicator is just beginning to show weak buying pressure.
I am still optimistic that Bitcoin will reach at least $150,000 by the end of the year.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[shahzadafzal]

“JUST IN: 🇦🇪 UAE's second largest telecom provider, du, launches Bitcoin cloud mining service.“

Not sure how will it work but as per the news it will be a regulated Bitcoin mining with du's Cloud Miner for the UAE residents. Cloud Miner lets individuals mine Bitcoin by renting computational power instead of setting up their own equipment. It will be subscription based with 24 months contracts. Auction will start on 3rd of November.

https://x.com/watcherguru/status/1984932846671212689

[DaRude]

I imagine a LOT of people in BTC for 10+ years are using their value for things other than savings now.

Having a large amount of savings is cool. However, there are things out there that are cooler…



Don’t get caught up thinking you’ll live forever. You should use Bitcoin to improve your life, not let Bitcoin use your life to increase its price.

And how exactly that crap on wheels will improve my life?

Its not about the car... everyone got his own guilty pleasures, mine for example is having time to do my things, like being able to crossfit in the morning at 10 o clock, doing a lot of holidays and exploring different places...

for some its a cybertruck it seems...

We all just have some different ideas of what pleasure etc is.

Sure buy time, experience, or health with your corn, but if you derive pleasures from changing your corn for crap on wheels, you might have issues with your priorities.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

You guys need some optimism. It is time for Moonvember.

Sure buy time, experience, or health with your corn, but if you derive pleasures from changing your corn for crap on wheels, you might have issues with your priorities.

People forget that you can decide what to derive pleasures, unless items control you. Just change it for something else. To sell corn for this crap.. horrible.

[SPIDERMAN008]

Actually, this war of the USA does not mean a direct stance against Bitcoin. I have explained that since the whole world trades in the US dollar. If the USA starts holding Bitcoin, then the reaction of fiat currency with Bitcoin that has been going on for so long will no longer exist. Bitcoin will gain universal acceptance through the holding of the USA. However, it is true that I have not seen the USA government directly holding any Bitcoin so far, but I understood without fully verifying the news shared by @Yorubek above that they are making some arrangements to start holding. Although that was my mistake, I should have been more careful.
Since Trump became president, a big change has been coming in the US and Bitcoin in the whole world. It is true that the USA holds the most Bitcoin individually and institutionally. However, having the hashrate means having full control. This seems a little different to me. A lot can change depending on the economics of mining, electricity prices, policy changes, and the price of Bitcoin. I would like to Thank you for raising and clearing up some misconceptions.

There tends to be value to be skeptical of what governments say and what they do and also not to get too caught up in regards to any particular leader or certain claims.  There were promises of showing proof of reserves for gold and for bitcoin, and the information on those fronts was ambiguous at best. There are surely a lot of balls in the air at once, so even if we might be trying to figure out what the USA is doing, other countries (and companies) are acting and reacting with their own overtness and covertness in terms of what they are doing and/or claim to be doing.  Some countries, like Bhutan seemed to have had been attempting to stay covert with its own accumulating of bitcoin on the side (including their seemingly extensive operation of mining of bitcoin), but then they were discovered through the 2022 (or was it 2023?) revelations that came out through the public disclosures in the bankruptcy filing.. and maybe they would have had kept their operations secret if they had not been found out through such bankruptcy filing.

Maybe part of my point is to just take some governmental claims with a grain of salt and attempt some analysis on them rather than just parroting them out as if they were news in and of themselves.. especially without at least attempting to assess some of the context, whether you believe the public announcements or not..

Sir I understand what you are saying. In fact, the government often tries to understand the reaction in the name of the announcement. Another thing is that if something related to Bitcoin is indicated, it has a lot of impact on the market, that is why they may make such announcements, but most of them may not have any real truth. Many times, the heads of government divert the attention of the people by making various misleading statements. So if the head of government or high officials of a country declares that “we are accumulating Bitcoin” or “our reserves are safe”, then we should not take it as the final truth but consider it as their trick. Another thing I understood from your words is that we should find out why the government of any country is saying it, instead of focusing on what it is saying.

[Biodom]

An interesting take from Jordi Visser on Pompliano's podcast.
Basically, he considers bitcoin to be in a similar situation to an IPO (vis-à-vis the Wall Street).

WS just really "discovered" the asset in the last 1-2 years.
Since it is like an IPO, the initial OGs (who could be compared to angel investors) are selling into an IPO (liquidity) and Wall Street and investors at large is/are mostly buying-see the IBIT accumulation.

I think that he is, perhaps, 60-70% right and the other 30-40%-is the chaotic mantra that was not worthy discussion on the show because it is, well, chaotic.

https://youtu.be/Pry8GotwAeA?t=1677

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Option A.

Bitcoin will not leave current channel reaching $130,000, ends the bull.

Option B.

Bitcoin leaves the channel maxing out $160,000 - $200,000+

I go for option B because Bitcoin still missing the fase going vertical with a blow- off pump. It's part of the bull martket dynamics and it could extend into Q1 2026.

I do remember months ago… you were the one who continuously was on point with dumping and further dumping…

Now you’re the one who slightly is more bullish as most people… I have a good hope in your opinion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Option A.

Bitcoin will not leave current channel reaching $130,000, ends the bull.

Option B.

Bitcoin leaves the channel maxing out $160,000 - $200,000+

I go for option B because Bitcoin still missing the fase going vertical with a blow- off pump. It's part of the bull martket dynamics and it could extend into Q1 2026.

I haven’t really felt excitement at all in 2025. It was nice breaking all time highs but I haven’t looked at any charts and felt blown away.

My hope is that we hit somewhere between Option A and Option B so something like 140k to 150k which would be a nice ending to this cycle. If 126k is the top it’s a bit lacklustre.

I’d love to see 200k but it feels a bit far away for now. If you offered me 145k per coin before Christmas, because of where we are right now, I’d shake your hand and deal in less than one second.

[Biodom]

<snip>I’d love to see 200k but it feels a bit far away for now. If you offered me 145k per coin before Christmas, because of where we are right now, I’d shake your hand and deal in less than one second.

..and lose the bet to @JJG, which would be inconsequential, lol.

Personally, I am waiting for the time when we would be at the bottom of the cycle, then, once we start going up, I will borrow against (at maybe 50% LTV instead of just 20% now), not sell.

Apparently, Fidelity is allowing bitcoin deposits.
Next, they might allow tax-less exchange with ETFs and then borrowing...as borrowing against securities is typically done at the much lower interest rates.
I am waiting for both conditions to be satisfied to borrow anything.

[philipma1957]

The Dude does CrossFit,
I do athletic walking.
Coiners keeping fit.

A wave of trollers.
They come, they shit, then they go.
Stupid know-it-alls!

Core 30 update?
BIP-444 forkening?
Luke a cat-eater?

No need to worry.
Badger will take care of it.
We'll know soon enough.

I see some coiners,
Filling their bags with fiat.
A wise move, for sure!

Fed up with ramen?
Be careful what you wish for.
Mud cookies are next!

UP- or DOWN-vember?
Don't stress it. Chill. Throw a dice.
We've already won!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

I am a cat eater myself.

So why shouldn't Luke be a cat eater.

Of course we may be talking about different types of cat.😉

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com