Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Any educated, logical, fair-minded human being that reads some of the pathetic fucked up shit here thinks many of the OGs that post regularly are total idiots with serious mental problems.

I’m not so keen on that fancy book learning and logic tends to escape me so I haven’t noticed the mental health emergency in this thread. While I don’t believe I have ever claimed to be a Bitcoin “OG” I have also never claimed to be mentally sound. In fact, I would point to the % of my net worth currently invested in Bitcoin as evidence to the contrary.

At least I know I am in good company.

Mentally sound is fucking boring anyway    
I never had real fun without at least a little touch of craziness.
Those who know the meaning of "normal" know...

Many of us likely realize that there are a variety of personalities in this thread, and surely some of us are not necessarily going to interact in any way that is exactly predictable - so whether that is normal or not, there seems to be a certain level of allowance for a variety of opinions, even if there might perceptions of likely deserved dog piling, too.

Bull back on?

I believe the term is dead cat bounce. I wouldn’t feel good about buying here. I think we probably see Bitcoin recover back to near $108K and then the next leg down. Would love to see another high this cycle, but I don’t think it is going to happen. Unless Trump can remove Capital Gains or manage a big Strategic Reserve buy, the next year is going to be a rough one. Hopefully his speech today has some Bitcoin mentions in it.

I doubt that your viewpoint is going to work out too well, especially since you are also acting upon it... So you likely have decently good odds of putting yourself in a worse position based on your view of where we are at currently and where we are going (or may be going) from here.

But hey, it is a free world the last time I checked, at least in terms of our personal choices regarding how much of our time, energy and value to put into or keep in bitcoin.

You never know.

You might be correct...

But, I doubt it.  You are too rigid and also too smug about thinking that you know more than you do.. which is part of the reason that you likely feel some level of desperation to sell and to hope to be able to buy back cheaper, which is also starting from a bad (a trader's rather than an investor's) perspective.

...mental health...

Hey, by the way, i don't have mental problems, i am a mental problem  

someone mentioned brain damage?

so lets add up the combined ICD10/DSM codes of our respective mental issues and see who has the biggest numbers?

whos first.. i think ill be pretty up there with my score lol

Finally a topic that got uie pooie exciiiiiitteeeeeeeee!!!!!!!

 

Here’s a chart I found on the interwebz. The four year cycle folks (like myself) have to be searching for the exits. Now might not be the right time, but time is running out quickly to sell above $100K if you ask me. I don’t think we’ll see $118K again for a few years. As always, I’d love to be wrong.

Wow.. That is truly a higher level of nonsense that's got to be bettable... but I doubt you will do it and you probably don't even belive what you are saying.  You could not be that out of touch.  Or could you?

How about it? It does not even have to be a big bet.  I might even be willing to give you odds on your nutjob (likely talking your book) wishful proposition.

Here’s a chart I found on the interwebz. The four year cycle folks (like myself) have to be searching for the exits. Now might not be the right time, but time is running out quickly to sell above $100K if you ask me. I don’t think we’ll see $118K again for a few years. As always, I’d love to be wrong.

So how deep is the bear? Wick below 30k in 12-14mo before reversal?

I think it is too soon to start calling bottoms. The number I’m throwing out now is $60K, but $40K wouldn’t surprise me. There is no major support until $76K… Rather than worrying about how low we are going to go in the next cycle, it would be wise to start reducing exposure on the peaks. The risk/reward has clearly shifted and I’m seeing a lot of denial out there. Never sell all your BTC, but make sure if you do sell any, it is at cycle peaks, e.g. 2013,2017,2021,2025,2029, etc. You don’t have to sell now, but make sure you aren’t the guy selling at $50K in 14 months.

It's never going below $55k again, unless a quickie spike (meaning less than a few hours below that.

I would be more adventurous with my bet proposal, but I am just making what might be a bet proposal that you should be more than willing to accept, especially given your current level of confidence.

Also I am glad that you are ahead of the curve.. and clairvoyant too.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Gachapin]

you seem so sure, you should sell everything and buy back lower, no?

With 24% capital gains it’s too much of a risk. I sold enough Bitcoin for six years of life expenses. In hindsight I should have sold more over 120k but I thought we would hit at least 150k this year.

Love to be wrong but this looks like frustrated OG’s and four year cycle believers dumping due to lack of bullish price action. It’s causing severe selling pressure. I think the bull run is over.

Clearly I hope it’s not as I become significantly wealthier with uppity price action. I just say what I see though without bias.

It seems to me you've done quite well with your strategies as well.

that's true

I'm a bit afraid that LFC is right again tbh 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[smartcomet]

buy 1000$ at 103K

[philipma1957]

Here’s a chart I found on the interwebz. The four year cycle folks (like myself) have to be searching for the exits. Now might not be the right time, but time is running out quickly to sell above $100K if you ask me. I don’t think we’ll see $118K again for a few years. As always, I’d love to be wrong.

So how deep is the bear? Wick below 30k in 12-14mo before reversal?

I think it is too soon to start calling bottoms. The number I’m throwing out now is $60K, but $40K wouldn’t surprise me. There is no major support until $76K… Rather than worrying about how low we are going to go in the next cycle, it would be wise to start reducing exposure on the peaks. The risk/reward has clearly shifted and I’m seeing a lot of denial out there. Never sell all your BTC, but make sure if you do sell any, it is at cycle peaks, e.g. 2013,2017,2021,2025,2029, etc. You don’t have to sell now, but make sure you aren’t the guy selling at $50K in 14 months.

og watch out Japan is sending troops to your place due to the bear attacks.


I want to laugh at how silly you predictions will look in a few months.


So to start off ha ha ha .

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[asUHWEceyc]

4-year Cycle Rules

• Bear low does not violate prior ATH
• Previous ATH is not exceeded until after halving
• Q4 of year following halving yields parabolic* ATH
• Subsequent 12-24 month bear market, 78+% drawdown

_*llamabolic

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[asUHWEceyc]

Here’s a chart I found on the interwebz. The four year cycle folks (like myself) have to be searching for the exits. Now might not be the right time, but time is running out quickly to sell above $100K if you ask me. I don’t think we’ll see $118K again for a few years. As always, I’d love to be wrong.

So how deep is the bear? Wick below 30k in 12-14mo before reversal?

I think it is too soon to start calling bottoms. The number I’m throwing out now is $60K, but $40K wouldn’t surprise me. There is no major support until $76K… Rather than worrying about how low we are going to go in the next cycle, it would be wise to start reducing exposure on the peaks. The risk/reward has clearly shifted and I’m seeing a lot of denial out there. Never sell all your BTC, but make sure if you do sell any, it is at cycle peaks, e.g. 2013,2017,2021,2025,2029, etc. You don’t have to sell now, but make sure you aren’t the guy selling at $50K in 14 months.

50 to 70% drawdown seems quite mild. Then again, it's probably realistic if the multi-year high was/is/will-be a weak ass 126k

[Gachapin]

who bought up that fancy flavored ramen a few days back

big brain move - eating like a king now

Im water maxxing. No need for fancy expensive ramen.

Water? Fish fornicate in it. There are much better beverages. Also screw the ramen.



Buy when you can, sell only when you absolutely must. Ignore the price.

Enjoy life.

Fatty Wagyu is not my thing I must admit. It's just too much fat. They have even marbled Wagyu that's more white than red.
I like lean red filet cut in thick slices but that's rather rare in Japan.

But what am I dreaming of, I cannot even afford eggs for my cup ramen anymore...

[AlcoHoDL]

who bought up that fancy flavored ramen a few days back

big brain move - eating like a king now

Im water maxxing. No need for fancy expensive ramen.

Water? Fish fornicate in it. There are much better beverages. Also screw the ramen.



Buy when you can, sell only when you absolutely must. Ignore the price.

Enjoy life.

Fatty Wagyu is not my thing I must admit. It's just too much fat. They have even marbled Wagyu that's more white than red.
I like lean red filet cut in thick slices but that's rather rare in Japan.

But what am I dreaming of, I cannot even afford eggs for my cup ramen anymore...

Never tried this, nor have I seen it sold anywhere as far as I can remember...

I wonder, is this natural, or are the animals intentionally fattened by the farmers, specifically to make meat like this?

Edit: I Googled "Wagyu" and found it's a special Japanese breed of cattle known for producing highly marbled, tender, and flavorful beef. Nice. Will look for it next time I'm out shopping.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitHodlers]

Never tried this, nor have I seen it sold anywhere as far as I can remember...

I wonder, is this natural, or are the animals intentionally fattened by the farmers, specifically to make meat like this?

Edit: I Googled "Wagyu" and found it's a special Japanese breed of cattle known for producing highly marbled, tender, and flavorful beef. Nice. Will look for it next time I'm out shopping.

After the Wagyu experiment, the next one to try would be Kobe which is even more expensive. As long as it is made properly the differences between these and other meat is very noticeable. Enjoy.

[JimboToronto]

After the Wagyu experiment, the next one to try would be Kobe which is even more expensive. As long as it is made properly the differences between these and other meat is very noticeable. Enjoy.

Kobe beef is just wagyu from a particular place using particular farming methods.

The image I used in my second post on the subject was of Matsusaka wagyu, perhaps the finest beef in the world.

Matsusaki Wagyu ribeye

I've seen images of Matsusaki beef with higher levels of intramuscular fat (high in omega-3) but I just did a quick google of Matsusaki ribeye to compare it to the non-wagyu I used in my first post.

Non-wagyu ribeye

The non-wagyu has only moderate marbling and is barely steakhouse quality.

The reason why so much of the so-called "Wagyu" sold in North America is so low quality is that it was intentionally crossbred with leaner breeds like Aberdeen Angus because marketing people deemed pure Wagyu to be "too white" for American consumers. Also Wagyu/Angus crossbreeds are cheaper and faster to produce.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Never tried this, nor have I seen it sold anywhere as far as I can remember...

I wonder, is this natural, or are the animals intentionally fattened by the farmers, specifically to make meat like this?

Edit: I Googled "Wagyu" and found it's a special Japanese breed of cattle known for producing highly marbled, tender, and flavorful beef. Nice. Will look for it next time I'm out shopping.

After the Wagyu experiment, the next one to try would be Kobe which is even more expensive. As long as it is made properly the differences between these and other meat is very noticeable. Enjoy.

A lot of Americans think Wagyu beef imported from Japan tastes terrible compared to U.S. beef for filet mignon or NY strip. I certainly don't care for Wagyu, myself...

I have also tried Kobe Beef and did not think much of it...


Below is a link to an interesting video - a 400 day dry aged Wagyu steak.


► https://youtu.be/3s4tvVS9VO0