It seems a bit ridiculous to even proclaim $30k is in the cards.
I strongly agree with you on this. It's not impossible, and it would actually be close to fitting the metrics of the old school cycle bear winter -- in the neighborhood of a 75% draw down from what would have certainly been the all time high in this fantastic scenario.
But this definitely touches on my perennial "this time is different" theory about where we are now. I just don't see a 75% drawdown happening.
I would be willing to place up to a 100,000 Satoshi bet on this, with someone who thinks we do touch 30, as long as we define the timeframes and such, clearly.
There are several of us in bitcoin (who participate in this thread) (including but not limited to yours truly) who consider ourselves to be fairly conservative with our money...
Comically true in my case. I was just thinking this morning about figuring out ways to spend more money so that I don't end up leaving my kids so much. Lol. My financial security has certainly changed over the last 15 years, but my lifestyle hasn't moved an inch. I was a starving musician for part of that and a well-paid IT worker for another part. I've always lived the same. I suppose some people will make a point of pride out of that. And I don't really. It's just a matter of preference.
I have an old client from the days I ran the studio who's also a friend and he is exact opposite of me constantly borrowing, spending, spending, borrowing. Money is like water through his hands and he's always right on the verge of bankruptcy. But he lives a lavish lifestyle before he was married. He drove a Hummer and lived at the top of some swanky high-rise in my town.
A part of me admires his way of handling money.
By the way, I don't buy the OG's dumping bullshit.
Sure they might be selling some, but I really doubt that they are selling as much as the various anecdotal proclamations about their supposed selling.
Supposedly there is data to support such theory about OGs supposedly dumping.. yet so far I am not convinced.
So this narrative, which seems to have sprung up very quickly and recently, has been very interesting to me. I think for sure so-called OGs are selling. I think I would be the poster boy for this case. Some people claim to have diamond hands. I believe I deserve to claim that I have hands that are foolish in their firmness forged in the heart of the sun. Lol. And yet I am currently funding my very simple lifestyle entirely with my stack.
And my basic point is if
I am drawing down for the purpose of just living my life, then certainly many, many others who have been here for ten plus years are doing the same.
Then the questions become, are there enough people unwinding the way I might, sort of along the lines of your simple savings thingamadoodgy (though my approach probably is more conservative than the mass of your very reasonable plans.) to exert meaningful downward pressure on the price.
And then secondly are some of the mega whales selling gigantic lots of Bitcoin into the market one way or another? Talking here about at least 9 figure USD Sales.
So to the second point, I would think large sales in the realm of thousands of coins would almost always be executed on OTC markets. So in a way, I would not expect these sales to have the same kind of downward pressure, in a sense, than direct sales on exchanges. Not that they would not have an effect on price, but that it would be distorted by the fact that it would be a second and third order type of thing.
But to the first scenario where you have people selling just what they need to buy their top ramen, a nice anniversary dinner for their wife and pay the bills and go on the occasional family vacation. I suppose you could assume sales of somewhere in between a half and a full Bitcoin each year from these type people at current price levels.
So then the question becomes, how many of them need there be to push the market down?
And here's the stinger, I think. As long as retail is not buying Bitcoin en mass, then you would only need a few thousand of these types of people to make a significant impact, I would think.
Either way, I do not think this is a situation that has legs. It can't last very long. There are more buyers than sellers. I just think we see a price distortions based on who is using the exchanges.
But my question for you, my wordy brother, is if the OG selling narrative is not primary or even significant in the price action, what do you think is exactly?
Poll
