1. Can Saylor be liquidated? There is a chance.
2. Can an economic calamity aka Depression happen? There is a chance.
3. Can $ hyperinflate considering that we have $36 tril in debt. There is a chance.
I take my chances, you take yours.
My take:
1. maybe 5% chance
2. maybe 10% chance
3. maybe 1% chance
There are quite a few variations of the three scenarios that you mentioned, which would have significance without the ultimate event necessarily being met.. or considering the definition of each of the scenarios.
It is possible that the setup is similar to 2000 going into 2001...i see similarities, but also differences.
that said...cash is NOT king when the printing resumes or accelerates.
However, I kept (for years now) about 5 year cash cushion (at OK spending levels), which could be stretched to, maybe, 6-7 years, if needed (with no salary and no IRA withdrawals).
Cash paid 4-5% yearly average in the last 3 years and i used that interest to pad various investments.
That said, i never spent bitcoin to create that cushion.
Various aspects of funds that you use to allocate in one direction or another can still be considered as opportunity costs, so if you purposefully had chosen to keep that much value in cash (rather than bitcoin), there were opportunity costs with those decisions (actions), even if you also felt that you were providing a "reasonable" level of insurance for yourself by keeping the cash (rather than the bitcoin).. and of course, personal choices regarding how much cash to keep versus if the insurance (the value) also keep in other forms.. meaning there can be various degrees of volatility and access, and there might be choices to not keep too much strictly in cash (in some yield products).
EDIT: Re Saylor-there is smallish warning sign: STRD went to 70 (vs 100 at par), which is a huge discount for a bond-like vehicle. MSTR board can refuse to pay interest on STRD temporarily and would not have to pay it back (this is different from STRC , STRK and STRF). Junk bonds effective yield is now about 6.7%, but STRD is at 17% (which means market considers this vehicle vulnerable or someone shorted it with abandon).
EDIT2: If Saylor actually exchanged some btc for converts, that could be very bullish, imho, as converts are the most vulnerable part of the MSTR structure. Saylor says that they are buying, but Arkham says that they have 47K less now. Both statements could be correct, of course.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/strategy-bitcoin-holdings-drop-47-134351410.htmlBuying straight bitcoin was easier to analyze, and yeah the more derivative products makes it much more complicated in regards to ways that they could end up screwing up an otherwise good investment (referring to investing directly in BTC).
NGL, thinking of taking some profit again next time we hit $100k USD/BTC.
The economic numbers have me a bit spooked, and would be nice to just sit on the cash. Schwab has a really good money market account.
The fact the govt isn't releasing October numbers is... historic.
Not sure we're gunna see $125k USD/BTC before the end of the year.
Would love to be wrong.
Have a great weekend, folks.
Yeah right, what a prettt great plan. Go ahead and take profit just right before Bitcoin price decides to skyrocket.
Bob has already done that several times. His argument is both that he has plenty and that his costs are quite low.. perhaps in the lower 3 digits.. yet I wonder.. .
and yeah, it is not really a great thing to sell large amounts on a dip even if it is a bounce of a dip, yet I think that many guys who have been in for a while consider that we can pretty much sell as much as we need within reasonable limitations of our regular monthly or incidental expenses (not that Bob is doing that)
I’m pretty sure the market will be polite enough to wait for you to jump back on the bandwagon before it decides to take off.
For anyone selling after s 26% dip (even if the selling is on a bounce), there should be no expectation of being able to buy back cheaper.
And you definitely don’t have nothing to worry about those economic numbers, nothing calms one’s nerves like swapping volatility for what now? Yeah, a money market account that pays just about enough to buy you a cup of coffee every morning.
Hahahahaha.. That part seems a bit strange, so yeah, I would agree that it probably is better to just keep it in bitcoin and then cash out what is needed from time to time.. but hey, guys think different about how to balance these matters, and yeah, maybe any of us might deserve some push-back if we are not likely managing our stash very well.
Saylor will end up with over 1 million coins by the end of 2026
Saylor (MSTR) is going to be able to accumulate another 360k bitcoin in the next 13.5 months? Perhaps? He has taken some pretty bold measures, and he has had a track record of increasing his purchase quantities by using other people's money in creative ways, but if he ends up overdoing it, then he might have some set backs.
Saylor will end up with over 1 million coins by the end of 2026
I was never expecting I am going to have this price $95K, but I am happy to have and my buying working because if Saylor have target of 1 million I have target of my 1 bitcoin in 2026.
There is something somewhat arbitrary and random in regards to seeking to achieve 1 whole bitcoin, and if you are brand new in the process of buying BTC, then maybe you might consider that you have to spend more than $100k to buy a whole bitcoin, especially if it is spread over 13.5 months, but yeah, you would have an advantage if you had already been in the process of building your stash.
Frequently I suggest to someone that if they would have had been buying regularly, the last 4 years, their average price per BTC would be in the ballpark of the 200-WMA, which currently is
slightly more than $55k per coin... so in the next 4 years, I would imagine the average is going to be quite a bit higher than $55k, perhaps somewhere in the ballpark of $165k per BTC for someone acquiring bitcoin regularly (such as ever week) in the next 4 years.
My current fuck you status chart that shows the 200-WMA projections has $211k in the November 2029 box, but I think that might be a bit high.
I'm sure his legal team did their best to protect the company (although he did say he discussed this stuff with AI after lawyers wanted to take too long reviewing everything). He'll be sued for certain at this point, but maybe his legal team does their job and he wins. If that's the case, it's really just his shareholders that get screwed and if Bitcoin rallies again next cycle they would probably be profitable before the lawsuits were settled. This is going to be one hell of an interesting story to track over the next couple years.
Sued for doing what exactly? Enlighten us with your wisdom mister genius OG.
If you haven't figured it out by now, me drawing you a picture in crayon probably won't help.
You don't know shit OgNasty.
There needs to be some intentional deception (ie fraud) for any lawsuit to prevail.
Even if those products were identified and written by bots, MSTR also has plenty of lawyers who review these matters. Is there evidence of lawyers advising one thing and Saylor doing the opposite?
Alternatively, is there evidence of Saylor telling shareholders one thing (or failing to disclose) and then doing the opposite (or at least some material deviation)? Saylor discloses a lot.
You think Saylor is going to get into trouble if he contradicted himself in various speeches that he gave or how his speeches might deviate from the 10k disclosures?
You don't got shit.. you just seem to love spouting out random ideas you read on the internet or perhaps that you fantasized on your own, to the extent that you have any original ideas.
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