NGL, thinking of taking some profit again next time we hit $100k USD/BTC.
The economic numbers have me a bit spooked, and would be nice to just sit on the cash. Schwab has a really good money market account.
The fact the govt isn't releasing October numbers is... historic.
Not sure we're gunna see $125k USD/BTC before the end of the year.
Would love to be wrong.
Have a great weekend, folks.
Yeah right, what a prettt great plan. Go ahead and take profit just right before Bitcoin price decides to skyrocket.
Bob has already done that several times. His argument is both that he has plenty and that his costs are quite low.. perhaps in the lower 3 digits.. yet I wonder.. .
and yeah, it is not really a great thing to sell large amounts on a dip even if it is a bounce of a dip, yet I think that many guys who have been in for a while consider that we can pretty much sell as much as we need within reasonable limitations of our regular monthly or incidental expenses (not that Bob is doing that)
Honestly, this isn’t the first time I’m seeing someone with this kind of logic. I mean folks claim their costs are low and their bags are deep, not until the market eventually exposes whether or not their confidence is actually real or just another bravado. and honestly, it often goes way beyond having enough figures stacked up in your bag. Sure, having plenty of cornz’s great, but does it make every sell decision smart? Hell No. to think the market rewards ego, unfortunately, it mostly rewards timing and discipline.
And yeah, selling heavy into a dip, even a bounce would most likely signal emotions, more than strategy. Hitting a fuck you status is great and those who have been able to survive multiple cycles would most likely understand that the most logical way to sell is selling what aligns with your actual life expenses or your strategic withdrawal plan and definitely not whatever your mood or emotions dictate at that point.
Many say their costs are low and their pockets are deep, but when the market really tests who they are, the truth is revealed, the market does not reward anyone with a small amount of money, the real thing is discipline, how much BTC you hold is important, but the decision of each sale is rational and emotional at the time.
Heavy sell-offs are often a reflection of emotion, not strategy, those who have gone through multiple cycles have made one thing very clear, the smartest sale is the one that matches your real life expenses, long-term strategy and risk management, and that is to sell on the wave of emotion, and the market never rewards that!
That’s a fair take. And from a systems level standpoint, selling off everything out of BTC I just kinda introduces extra friction and counterparty exposure for no actual gain. But leaving value stored in BTC and only having to off-ramp only a when you have specific need for fiat is basically the optimal risk adjusted workflow, plus it also minimizes taxable events, drastically reduces your dependency on exchanges and also keeping your long term asymmetric gains intact.
But sure, portfolio management is just like coding right? Every individual has their own unique philosophy (sometimes right and sometimes wrong). And while some approaches are objectively suboptimal, they still somehow work for the person that uses them right? A little push back isn’t actually negative, but just kind of a healthy peer review for how we choose to handle our stack.
What you are saying is not just a wish, it is actually practical risk management, liquidating the entire stack does not just mean making a profit, along with this, unnecessary friction, taxes, events and counterparty risk are taken into your own hands, for most people it increases headaches instead of profits, if you hold value in BTC and only off-ramp to fiat when necessary, much more and optimized less tax less exchange reliance and long term convexity is important, this can actually be called management.
And yes, like portfolio code, some people's method may be theoretically wrong but it works for them in reality, some people's high time preference is also low, this diversity is what makes the market interesting, at the end of the day, stepping back a little and reviewing your own decisions impartially is the real edge!
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