Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

That surely adds to it, too.

[philipma1957]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

well if the day of reckoning is jan 15th

the reaction is very early.


i will watch closely and I will dca with the mine and wait for more dip.

if we are headed into a big dump 50 to 60k.

  mining will drop a lot.

the margins for miners never came near the 2021+2022 numbers.

so mines do not have a ton of ability to hold.

3.43 cents a th means 3.43x270=926.1

9.26 for each s21xp.

it burns 85kwatts so 4.25 power cost for a 5 cent power guy.

thus the earn is 5 dollars a unit.

not counting staff
not counting maintenance
not counting tax on the building
not counting cost of the gear. 5k-7k for each one.

if we extend to jan 15 before we truly jump up miners may bail quite a bit.


we never had a miner bailing for since 2018.

as we went side ways in 2022 after the crash.

[Richy_T]

3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".

Was this widely circulated information or was it kept to the select few? It seems like such market-moving information being kept on the DL would be kind-of shitty. That Saylor is only responding today is interesting.

Here is Saylor’s response…

*snip*

Doesn't sound that convincing so not a great outlook. Here's hoping, I guess.

[Hermes Mercury]

Well, perhaps that's one of the reasons, but graphically speaking, prices are already tending to fall. So any impulse in that direction will cause prices to fall. All we can do is wait and try to take advantage of the situation.

[Biodom]

3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".

Was this widely circulated information or was it kept to the select few? It seems like such market-moving information being kept on the DL would be kind-of shitty. That Saylor is only responding today is interesting.

Here is Saylor’s response…

*snip*

Doesn't sound that convincing so not a great outlook. Here's hoping, I guess.

If MSCI does it, I will be taking all my funds out of Morgan Stanley, that's a promise, even though I have a minimal exposure to MSTR.

[BitHodlers]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

This is not much different from the story that involves the old whale selling. You are just giving your perspective, you do not know the truth. Please stop acting like you do, thanks.

yeah the handle over the few days was way more.

100 billion or more.

130
 97
 81
1o1

last 4 days.

and the 130 does not show the full day

The trading volumes are crazy and this does not even include any OTC. The market can definitely absorb these quantities without issue. It is not the cause of the drop, people confuse correlations with causation and also misplace the causation.

Liquidity also depends on funding and interest rates, and the Fed still holds back a bit too much there. No clear signal, so there's more uncertainty and risk-avoidance.

Interesting times for Bitcoin, that's for sure.

That is definitely true, I think we will see extremely better times as interest rates continue to get lower and close to 0. As I said this may have contributed to the already extreme fear that is going on. The FED is very split on December, but I do hope for at least .25

https://markets.financialcontent.com/talkmarkets/article/marketminute-2025-11-20-morgan-stanley-reverses-course-drops-december-fed-rate-cut-forecast-amid-resilient-economy

[Richy_T]

so his loss is reduced to 800,000 not 1,220,000

He has no loss as he is out of the game. That kind of thinking leads to bad places.

[cAPSLOCK]

Poor fellow! Have you been taking wordy lessons from JJG?

Simple ad hominem. You're very good at fallacies and non-arguments.

As to my wordiness, no. I did not learn this from JJG. I come by it myself.

[Biodom]

Reminder: We are making fun of mindrust, because he claimed to be cool as ice for the whole bear market, claiming he would hold his corn with diamond hands and not ever thinking about selling.
The he sold overnight, at the bottom of the final bear capitulation candle, shortly before the accumulation phase prior to the next bull market started (was it at $4k, IIRC? ...or maybe $9k-ish?).

Mindrust sold around 4k. I'll never forget that day.

Me too, i only forgot the bottom price  

EDIT: At least, he became some kind of a legend, too.

People remember it not because he sold...i am sure quite a few people sold some anywhere between 5k and 7K back then.
It's just he sold everything and did not re-buy, at least initially...pretty sure that he bought later on because he sometimes posts on btctalk, just not here (under the same nickname, at least ).

[cAPSLOCK]

You guys are still confused about why this drop happened? Maybe you missed my post. I already told you.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg66077458#msg66077458

I agree that this is *a* reason that Bitcoin has endured this pullback.  But I don't think it's the only one.

I am not a big fan of the Treasury companies and I'm not really a big fan of what Saylor is doing with Strategy.  At least not all the things. I think the creation of various derivative financial instruments is kind of gross and kind of just another paper Bitcoin.

Same with the ETFs as I have expressed.

Both of these things have trade-offs and bad and good things about them.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

3. On EXACTLY 10th October, MSCI , the world's 2nd biggest Index company published the below. They are questioning whether companies that hold crypto assets as their core business, should be considered as "companies" or "funds".

Was this widely circulated information or was it kept to the select few? It seems like such market-moving information being kept on the DL would be kind-of shitty. That Saylor is only responding today is interesting.

Here is Saylor’s response…

*snip*

Doesn't sound that convincing so not a great outlook. Here's hoping, I guess.

If MSCI does it, I will taking all my funds out of Morgan Stanley, that's a promise, even though I have a minimal exposure to MSTR.

I don't think they have a leg to stand on honestly because Strategy isn't only a company that does the Bitcoin Treasury thing. Obviously that has blown up into quite a big portion of their activity.

I actually like Saylor's response to it as well, that making that point, as well as saying being on an index doesn't change what they are doing at all.

Speaking for myself, I think I have allowed myself to be lulled into a certain complacency by the traditional finance system, the government, people like Larry Fink all seemingly warming up to Bitcoin.  

There are still many, many people in places of power that hate it with all of their might, because it is a wrench in the well designed worldwide money laundering operation that's happening all the time with fake money.

And if they can hurt Strategy deeply enough and rattle investors' faith in Bitcoin because of it, we will be on a nasty road for quite some time, but it changes nothing in the end.


Amending this to point out that I do believe the chance that we are seeing some shenanigans unfold before our eyes that will definitely hurt the price of Bitcoin are pretty high at this point.

[asUHWEceyc]

It's true that nearly all US ETFs operate with paper bitcoin-only by definition: coins are sourced by third parties and then custodied with third party centralized exchanges, other than Fidelity's FBTC- in which case trust is placed with their digital assets subsidiary. Of course, the only one that actually publishes addresses is Bitwise...for a Coinbase account

Authorized Participants that do the buying and selling could also be tilting the board with order timing, asset sourcing (otc/spot/in-kind), creation type, etc- they make their money on spreads after all and there are 9 APs working for IBIT alone. Watching the elevated volume and negative price action around US open and close suggests this is happening. Conbase is probably in on it, whatever "it" may be, and must have excellent visibility into market conditions, as usual.

And of course firms acting as APs are the usual criminals- citi, goldman, ubs, jane street, etc. who would never do bad.

For me it’s the fact that we had the halving in 2024, since then Saylor has amassed over 600,000 Bitcoin, Spot ETFs supposedly have a million or something. Satoshi has a million coins in known addresses. That is a huge amount of the total supply. How is it possible we only hit 126k and as I type we make a new low of 81k. Something bad is happening.

Consider that at least six months of inflows after ETF introduction consisted of Grayscale's Coinbase account bleeding into Blackrock's, with two APs and CB on either side, which should've been price neutral less fees for market makers, CB and both sponsors. Still, the bleed from GBTC continues.

At least we know the catalyst now and why the market is dumping. Here is a nice summary for those of you who are interested. Here’s the text instead of just a link dump…

Link: https://x.com/cryptomanran/status/1991823369453351261

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

RU a billionaire if you just loose a billion?

[vapourminer]

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

RU a billionaire if you just loose a billion?

if you still have a billion left over, yes

QED

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

RU a billionaire if you just loose a billion?

if you still have a billion left over, yes

QED

Musk and Zuck are probably gaining and "losing' billions every day...it means almost nothing in a big picture.

[Greyhats]

Rhymes with shmeekend rump


Areyounotentertained.jpg

[BobLawblaw]

https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1991981569553375669/photo/1

ERUPTION in volume for the bitcoin ETFs.. all time record set today with $11.5b as a group. $IBIT was $8b of that, which was all time record for it. Wild but also normal- whenever an ETF or category is 'going through it' volume is elevated. ETFs are liq release valves.

[philipma1957]

Rhymes with shmeekend rump


Areyounotentertained.jpg

77k maybe 75k  some time soon.

some good dip coming



or not.

be ready

[localalone]

Rhymes with shmeekend rump


Areyounotentertained.jpg

77k maybe 75k  some time soon.

some good dip coming



or not.

be ready

Already done my all paper work for these because now I am also looking for having something good from this dip which is coming any time soon.