Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Paashaas]

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.

[cAPSLOCK]

Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.

It looks like your node is running quite well. I got fed up after a series of hardware issues and basically shut them down but recently spun back up one of my old nodes.

Happy to see back. You and some others (you know who you are) here on the WO made me start my LN node 3 years ago.

The activity on the LN has definitely increased lately. As shown in the picture above, I've routed about 15 btc the past week with a profit of 735k sats.

If you need some inbound liquidity, please let me know.

I prob have more inbound than I need, lol.  Not balanced... More outbound.  I want to say link up! But Meh... it would be a weak use of your Sats I think... Unless I am connected to several big nodes you are not, which I doubt.  Here is the node:

02f859be038ab79284966331036ed7176aad77e2796fe3964fdadcfbfda528bc12

I think it has a whole 14 channels now.  But it works SUPER well now.  I am on LND with this one.  I preferred CL before.  But I am impressed with how well this is running right now.

I spun this back up with a small selection of good channels.  It is great for sending (and I THINK receiving) payments.  And even though my strategy for this one is really personal use.  So making and receiving payments.  However,  I have been seeing WAY more routing than generally I did, even with 5x more channels in the past...  11/21 I did over 700 routing events. 

Anyway.  I am glad to have been an inspiration for your success even if I have floundered myself.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

its kinda funny but i am sometimes more curious as to how much someone has lost (on paper) than their current net worth.

In some sense, you seem to be referring to an aspect of opportunity costs, since sometimes the "what ifs" and the "could of" "should of" become difficult to quantify - so then with bitcoin over the years we have not ONLY accumulated and compounded value, there have also been a lot of ups and downs along the way that tempted us to sell too much too soon and/or to fail refuse to sufficiently prepare our holdings for UP that may or may not end up coming.

In the case of bitcoin, the UP did end up coming, and those who ongoingly took action to accumulate bitcoin and/or at least not to sell too much too soon, ended up profiting quite stupendously  - even though at the same time, arguably there are some of us who might have had chosen to take decently large profits at various points along the way and perhaps even did not accumulate nearly as many BTC as we could have had accumulated, yet even with some whimpiness and/or some mistakes in our bitcoin accumulation, we still ended up doing quite well with our bitcoin, seemingly largely because we were erroring on the side of accumulating bitcoin and/or holding most of our coin rather than taking large profits.

So for example, even if we might have had chosen to take 10% or 20% of our bitcoin off the table after the price had gone up 10x, it surely may well have had seemed like a lot of money to be taking off of the table, yet at the same time, we largely ended up preserving the overwhelming majority of our holdings, and perhaps we were able to engage in such "shaving off" of profits at a few stages in our bitcoin investment journey, and we still ended up doing fine, even if we could have had more BTC, our shaving off of "profits" was mostly reasonable and tempered in terms of our deciding to hang onto a large majority of our holdings.

Of course, on a personal level, I likely have not shaved off as much profits along the way as other guys, even though I do frequently talk about some of my inclinations to sharve off more profits from time to time... and there are also some guys here who are not so excited about the idea of selling any of our bitcoin holdings, but then it seems that if we want to enter into lending relationships, then we might be putting our bitcoin at risk in those kinds of arrangements, too, even though I understand the advantages of not having to pay taxes on the various sales of the cornz.

i dont worry too much about "what if i bought more" type of scenarios as i got into it (mining btc as a hobby in 2011) not realizing the absolutely stupid amounts of money it would make.

however being married and (then) close to retirement i have played the safe game, as wasting a gift like btc at our age would of been folly. so around 2017ish after the 20k runup and during its slide down i cashed out a not insignificant chunk of my stack at like 15kish and left potential future profit on the table for a solid locked in retirement now (then).

since then, never looked back and its been, is, and im sure will continue to be, a rockin time. the time we gained (retiring early with ease) was well worth it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[fillippone]

Crap. Oh well, doom and gloom it is.

Anyway, I thought I'd share some LN activity.

This is great.
I know running a well-connected LN node is quite an effort and requires constant tuning.
Also, what is the ballpark total liquidity you put in that node?

[SPIDERMAN008]

Rhymes with shmeekend rump


Areyounotentertained.jpg

77k maybe 75k  some time soon.

some good dip coming



or not.

be ready

FOR beginner



X

[El duderino_]

Weekly RSI makes 2025 like a bear market.

It could dump a little bit more but overall new ATH in 2026.

Good some of us thinking with logic and don’t just ride the sentiment koolaid

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Krubster]

This is great.
I know running a well-connected LN node is quite an effort and requires constant tuning.
Also, what is the ballpark total liquidity you put in that node?

I agree. Even though I've tried to automated as much as I can, such as re-balancing certain channels and having dynamic fees (depending on the liquidity of the channel), it requires daily tuning for it to be profitable.

For most of its time, I've had about 5 btc tied up with this node. Last week however, after a two months holiday away from the node, I decided to double down and opened a 5 btc channel with LOOP.

Having a channel with LOOP can be very profitable, they offer swapping LN to on-chain, and vice versa. However, they automatically close the channel when most of the funds are on their side. By having such a large channel with them, I'm hoping to prevent that.

More information about my node can be found here here.

[BitHodlers]

I think the creation of various derivative financial instruments is kind of gross and kind of just another paper Bitcoin.

If we don't do it, someone else will do it. That is the world that we live in unfortunately. Better it be Saylor than some random shitcoiner VC leading this part of the industry, right?

The narrative of Strategy imploding reminds me a lot of the death spiral type of FUD.  And the thing is I can certainly entertain the scenarios on how something like that could go down.

The funny thing or sad thing is that Strategy can not implode at all unless BTC does something stupid like -90% or more. They have little debt and obligations comparatively speaking to their total holdings. Some people think everything was bought with debt and BTC crashing a little harder would nuke Strategy. It is quite similar to the stupid death spiral type of FUD. These people that fall for this nonsense don't even do basic research, even if their name starts with Og.  

Odds are now as high as 70% for a Fed rate cut in December.  

That should reverse some of the sentiment but just a few days ago they were saying it is likely that there is no rate cut.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

I can't be sure - of course - but I think I'm beginning to be a little bit optimistic we may have seen the bottom after yesterdays rout.

[Richy_T]

I can't be sure - of course - but I think I'm beginning to be a little bit optimistic we may have seen the bottom after yesterdays rout.

Don't jinx it.

[asUHWEceyc]

Musk and Zuck are probably gaining and "losing' billions every day...it means almost nothing in a big picture.

Welfare Billionaires

NEW! DoD flavor

The narrative/timing fits, but look at the ownership of MSCI and MSTR shown in the thread below- zero incentive for controlling entities to nuke their own holdings. Second, how does a MSTR selloff result in BTC dumping?

If MSTR can't be included in indexes, there will be so much selling pressure on MSTR that there is no way it will be able to continue on with it's preferred offering obligations without selling Bitcoin.  Even the issue being debated was enough to send it's mNAV negative.

Who benefits from tanking MSTR? Not top holders of both MSTR and MSCI (Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street, Morgan Stanley) -- at least not directly.

All the vulture funds circling?

The question becomes whether the goal is destabilization, and to what end- accumulation? Or simply to keep MSTR out of S&P?

Force the coins into the market and into the hands of those that print fiat?

Blackrock will bleed from 780k client coins if it tanks corn 80% per tradition: most capital wouldn't be back. The only reason to do so would be walmart scrip exchange rate tanking via significant fee sacrifice/goosekilling for a USG scoop, still questionable.

[asUHWEceyc]

confused do not get this one.

is it from a movie 🎥 or a show?

These are the Vulturi, which is some kind of clan of vampires from the Twilight series.

But this is an adaptation of a meme in which those three are standing dressed in flnery in front of a parapet looking down upon the masses as some sort of representation of status and class.

This joke modifies the meme, implying that the elite Bitcoiners now are having to start their shift back at the local McDonald's.

Further: even after Bit-Coin-ers invest in and harness extreme life extension technology- ascending thrones of vampiric financierdom- periodic shift work at mcd will still be necessary in a thousand years

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com