Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

Time to make a recommendation of a film most people haven't seen that you'd recommend, I'll go first.

Big trouble in little China.

I don't think anyone mentioned this one about a different Chopper.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chopper_(film)

Code:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chopper_(film)

Worth 90 minutes if you've got it, imo.

i forgot to mention this film last time:

Dark City

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0118929/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_City_(1998_film)

[AlcoHoDL]

i forgot to mention this film last time:

dark city

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_City_(1998_film)

Dark City is a great film. Highly recommended.

Here's my recommendation. A not so well known, but near-masterpiece of a film:

Exotica (1994) [IMDb]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Lucius]

I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

Much less than 1% definitely, the world would have to go all in into Bitcoin in the next years for this to happen.
~snip~

I am not one of those who have not learned anything from the past, because I remember around 2015 when the price of BTC was around $220/$250 and various "experts" claimed that 1 BTC would never be worth $1000 or more. Not only did $1000 happen, but $10k happened and finally $100k which leads me to the conclusion that one day 1 BTC will be worth $1 million, although I'm inclined to think that it won't happen in this decade, but maybe in the next decade.

The reasons why I think this might be the case are as follows:

There is less than 1 million BTC left for mining, so although the year 2140 is often mentioned as the time when the last coin will be mined, it is much more important that we will already be close to 99% of all mined coins at the beginning of the new decade. The 210 000 coins that will remain will be mined for the next 100+ years and there will practically not be any significant amount of new coins that would put pressure on the market.

Furthermore, there is a lot of speculation about how many coins are actually available on the market, and some estimates say at least 2 million BTC, although I am not sure if this refers only to CEXs or the total supply on all possible trading platforms. Be that as it may, it is an amount that is simply too large to allow the price of BTC to go up, because the law of supply and demand tells us that there is not nearly as much demand as there is supply on the market.

The question that arises is what could lead to the price of BTC experiencing what it experienced sometime in 2017 when it increased x20 in one year and is such a thing even possible? My opinion is that we can talk about 1 BTC = $1 million only in the event that central banks start buying BTC in larger quantities, which would then probably lead to a supply shock and a drastic price increase.

What should definitely be taken into account is the so-called "paper Bitcoin", which has already been mentioned many times, in the context of price manipulation - and all the possible derivatives that are present on the market. The question is whether Bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency can survive in its original form without being swallowed up by the corporate machinery that wants profit at any cost.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[NeuroticFish]

if we are gonna do 1% odds i say do it in.......
1 year

The chances to get there in about 2 cycles are not that bad.

Yeah, but.  Be more specific.  What is the number for "not bad" in two cycles?

And you realize that many of us consider a cycle to be 4 years, so are you talking about two cycles from today?  That would be by mid-2034.  My non-corrected table shows the bottom for BTC prices to be $496k by mid-2034, but my personal corrected one shows the bottom to be $353k... so I cannot really fight, even though, I consider reasonable spot prices to be somewhere around at least 25% above the bottom prices, at most times.

It was more a feeling. I initially meant 2 bull runs, so less than 8 years: let's say 20% chances, probably less, still not too bad compared with these guys' claims. But Saylor and the banks may speed up things, let an old man have his hopes  
If we talk about 10+ years, then the chances increase dramatically.

But let's try some math. Far from strict.
In theory, bitcoin went up 8-10x from previous minimum. And a new minimum is usually near to the ATH 5-6 years ago.
2021 ATH 65k ~ 2026 low
2025 ATH 125k ~ 2030-2031 low
=> 1M-1.2M ~ 2034 high

[BTCETFInvestor]

I see Adam Back running Ponzis and making bold predictions. $1M/BTC before the 2028 halving would be awesome, but I wouldn't put my hopes up. For this to come true, the price would have to quadruple (400%) every year for the next two years.

I'd give it less than 1% chance of happening.

Much less than 1% definitely, the world would have to go all in into Bitcoin in the next years for this to happen.
~snip~

I am not one of those who have not learned anything from the past, because I remember around 2015 when the price of BTC was around $220/$250 and various "experts" claimed that 1 BTC would never be worth $1000 or more. Not only did $1000 happen, but $10k happened and finally $100k which leads me to the conclusion that one day 1 BTC will be worth $1 million, although I'm inclined to think that it won't happen in this decade, but maybe in the next decade.

The reasons why I think this might be the case are as follows:

There is less than 1 million BTC left for mining, so although the year 2140 is often mentioned as the time when the last coin will be mined, it is much more important that we will already be close to 99% of all mined coins at the beginning of the new decade. The 210 000 coins that will remain will be mined for the next 100+ years and there will practically not be any significant amount of new coins that would put pressure on the market.

Furthermore, there is a lot of speculation about how many coins are actually available on the market, and some estimates say at least 2 million BTC, although I am not sure if this refers only to CEXs or the total supply on all possible trading platforms. Be that as it may, it is an amount that is simply too large to allow the price of BTC to go up, because the law of supply and demand tells us that there is not nearly as much demand as there is supply on the market.

The question that arises is what could lead to the price of BTC experiencing what it experienced sometime in 2017 when it increased x20 in one year and is such a thing even possible? My opinion is that we can talk about 1 BTC = $1 million only in the event that central banks start buying BTC in larger quantities, which would then probably lead to a supply shock and a drastic price increase.

What should definitely be taken into account is the so-called "paper Bitcoin", which has already been mentioned many times, in the context of price manipulation - and all the possible derivatives that are present on the market. The question is whether Bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency can survive in its original form without being swallowed up by the corporate machinery that wants profit at any cost.

As for tradable supply, only about 2–3 million BTC actually sit on exchanges.

It is counterintuitive, but you must zero in on the "Supply Shock" - the theory that drives the most bullish long-term predictions for Bitcoin. The idea that a global asset could have such a tiny tradable "float" seems impossible, but the data (especially in 2026) backs it up.

Here is the breakdown of why that supply is so low and why it hasn't been "snapped up" entirely - yet.

The "Illiquid" Reality
While there are ~20 million BTC in existence, they are partitioned into groups that rarely, if ever, touch an exchange:
•   The "Zombies" (3–4M BTC): These are coins lost in the early days (Satoshi’s coins, discarded hard drives, lost keys). They effectively don't exist.
•   The "HODLers" (14–15M BTC): On-chain data shows that roughly 75% of the supply hasn't moved in over a year. This includes corporate treasuries (like MicroStrategy), nation-states (like El Salvador and Bhutan), and long-term "Diamond Hands."
• ► The "Tradable Float" (2–3M BTC): This is the only portion sitting on exchanges like Binance or Coinbase. This is the only Bitcoin available for you, me, and the ETFs to buy right now.


You might wonder why doesn't someone just "buy it all"!

There is a mechanical "braking system" that prevents it from happening overnight:
•   Slippage & Exponential Price: If a billionaire tries to buy $50 billion worth of BTC today, they would eat through the entire order book. The first $100M might be at $76k, but by the time they are halfway through, the price would be $200k, then $500k. The cost becomes prohibitive before the supply is gone.
•   The "New" Institutional Vacuum: In 2026, the Spot ETFs are the biggest "vacuum" in history. As of this month, ETFs have been absorbing nearly 6 times the amount of newly mined coins each month. They are slowly "draining the pool" of those 2-3 million coins.

[philipma1957]

Yeah there are enough coins left to mine that the mining part of the industry can last maybe 8-12 years.

2012 10,500,000.00
2016
2020
2024   1,312,500.00
2028      656,250.00
2032      328,125.00
2036      164,062.50





we are around 970,000 coins left
we drop to       164,062.50 coins in 2036
this is about     806,000 coins

if there are 2,000,000 to 3,000,000 liquid coins right now.

we are then at 2.8m to 3.8m  liquid coins

basically in 2036 there is no more additional liquidity to be mined.

but from 2026 to 2036 there are 800,000 coins to add to liquidity

so the next ten year are a critical time period and accumulation is a good idea.

At least on paper.

[BTCETFInvestor]

As of now, there are fewer than 2.7 million BTC on all exchanges.

Can you imagine what happens when ETFs, major countries, nation-states and corporation reserves eat into that relatively small remaining amount of BTC on exchanges?

The current goal of the U.S. Strategic Reserve isn't necessarily to replace gold today, but to ensure the U.S. owns an equal percentage of the total supply:
1. Supply Parity: The U.S. owns roughly 4% of all the gold ever mined. By acquiring 1 million BTC, the U.S. would own roughly 4.7% of the total 21 million Bitcoin supply.
2. The "Front-Running" Factor: Insiders claim that if the U.S. officially starts buying 200,000 BTC per year (as proposed in the ARMA legislation), the resulting supply shock would likely force the price toward $1M much faster, making the reserve's value swell to rival gold's market cap in real-time.

The Gold Parity Play: Key advisors in the 2026 Trump administration famously propose a goal of 4 million BTC.
Logic: The U.S. holds roughly 19% of the world’s above-ground gold; therefore, to maintain dominance in the digital age, it is believed the U.S. should hold a matching 19% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Many in the Trump administration (e.g. U.S. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and Secretary of U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent) agree and think 4 Million BTC (~19% of the total) is the better goal, making BTC the primary U.S. reserve comparable to the percentage of above-ground gold owned.

If that becomes the plan, what do you think the world's other countries do? They don't want to be left behind so (like their gold reserves) they too will add BTC to their reserves - - and the exchange supply drops drastically and the price soars. In fact, just the rumor of how the U.S. thinks about the Bitcoin Reserve amount is convincing other countries to already consider adding Bitcoin to their reserves.    

If the U.S. wants to ultimately own 4 million BTC (19% of the total Bitcoin supply) when there is less than  2.7 million BTC available on all exchanges today - there will need to be some tightly-held BTC to become available. This of course happens due to the price increasing dramatically as the demand for BTC increases.


Bitcoin: Exchange Reserve - All Exchanges

[WatChe]

The question is whether Bitcoin as a decentralized cryptocurrency can survive in its original form without being swallowed up by the corporate machinery that wants profit at any cost.

Bitcoin ETFs played a major role in rising price of Bitcoin to 126k and their sell off was also one prime reason we saw price going down. Now if we want to see Bitcoin price rising to 1 million then Bitcoin need liquidity and that can be provided by big institutes only.

As a decentralised cryptocurrency, its still possible for Bitcoin to go up to one million but it will take more time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JimboToronto]

Happy solstice all.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[kellrobinson]

As of now, there are fewer than 2.7 million BTC on all exchanges.

Can you imagine what happens when ETFs, major countries, nation-states and corporation reserves eat into that relatively small remaining amount of BTC on exchanges?

Those entities don't transact through the trading books of crypto exchanges.  The big boys use OTC.  And the OTC desks they use might not even be the same OTC desks that ordinary retail market participants use.  An institution can buy thousands of btc through channels that don't draw from the exchanges' trading books.  You'd think that sooner or later, bitcoin's price has to respond anyway.  But here we are, waiting.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Happy solstice all.

It's not only the first day of summer but the beginning of much higher temperatures, reaching triple-digit figures on a regular basis for me.  

[BTCETFInvestor]

As of now, there are fewer than 2.7 million BTC on all exchanges.

Can you imagine what happens when ETFs, major countries, nation-states and corporation reserves eat into that relatively small remaining amount of BTC on exchanges?

Those entities don't transact through the trading books of crypto exchanges.  The big boys use OTC.  And the OTC desks they use might not even be the same OTC desks that ordinary retail market participants use.  An institution can buy thousands of btc through channels that don't draw from the exchanges' trading books.  You'd think that sooner or later, bitcoin's price has to respond anyway.  But here we are, waiting.

Correct, Over-the-Counter (OTC) desks acquire Bitcoin for clients through a combination of their own held reserves, peer-to-peer matchmaking, and aggregated liquidity.

When a large order is placed, an OTC desk utilizes one or more of the following methods:

• Proprietary Inventory (Principal Desks): Many large OTC desks (such as those run by major institutional entities) act as the principal counterparty. They hold large, pre-funded reserves of both Bitcoin and fiat currencies. If a client wants to buy $20 million in BTC, the desk simply sells directly from its own inventory and replenishes it later.

• Private Network Matching (Agency Desks): Desks maintain an extensive private network of "whales" (high net-worth individuals), hedge funds, venture capitalists, and Bitcoin miners. If a client wants to buy, the desk acts as a matchmaker, quietly locating another entity within its network that wants to sell the exact amount.

• Institutional Market Makers: The largest OTC providers connect with multiple private liquidity pools, including algorithmic trading firms and other broker-dealers, to source the Bitcoin off the public market.

• Dark Pools and Exchange Networks: While large trades intentionally avoid touching public retail order books to prevent slippage, OTC desks do use private dark pools on major exchanges (like Coinbase Prime) or their own institutional divisions (like Kraken OTC) to source large blocks of Bitcoin without alerting the general public.

[Biodom]

so many movies;
good memories still linger
like a spiderweb

# Sunday haiku triggered by the new movie lists

[Biodom]

Sorry, I don't believe in Bitcoin reserve idea considering a political 4-year cycle.
They will sell it (reserve) at the first sign of trouble...like to fund the upcoming UBI (caused by AI-triggered unemployment).
I have seen serious people talking about $3K/mo UBI:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHqIZInOxeE

Interesting conversation, anyway, albeit a bit too long.