Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[El duderino_]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[promise444c5]

Found this today:

 https://prodigywildfire.com/EmberWatch

 https://prodigywildfire.com/fire-map/washington

[JayJuanGee]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

There are some folks, in these here parts, who already chose to sell 30% of their bitcoin based on recent events.

Many of us should be considering these to be more or less bottom prices, even though we cannot be sure about whether there might be more down from here.

Right now I am not getting any great evidence of a move up, even though there is a lot of negative sentiment and even though we know that negative sentiment does not necessarily tell us that the price is going to go negative.

We still have the baloney BIP 110 stuff that is giving some further uncertainty that will have more movement next week when the next difficulty kicks in.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

nothing but up baby

[Biodom]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

I don't recall that someone sold 30% as @JJG says, albeit i might simply not paid enough attention. I did not sell any.
Generally speaking, the amplitude of bitcoin oscillations seem to be decreasing, but too few data points, still.
If we did not surge up too much in 2025, then, by the same token maybe we shouldn't plunge as much as previously, but it is not the strong rule, of course.

So far, we went down to around 58K (on June 25), which is roughly 54% down from the 126K top.
It seems that June 25 price undercut Feb 6 price by about 2K.
Whether the price was slightly different on some other platforms, I don't care.
I can easily see the price close to 58K being a low, but it doesn't have to be. Maybe 50:50.
Among the 38-58K continuum, it seems that some people point to the middle of that rage (at 48K) as a distinct possibility (-62%).
Sounds quite brutal and a bit unlikely to me, again, considering a weak bull.
Difficulty decrease is already bigger than before and quite a few params (but not all) indicating a bottom are already flashing.

In the end, it might depend on some factors that are not easy to see rn.
EDIT: my personal hope is for 75K by 12/31.

[JayJuanGee]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

I don't recall that someone sold 30% as @JJG says, albeit i might simply not paid enough attention. I did not sell any.

Not to be too much of a stalker (like some other thread participant), but there is evidence of such claim:

Well After reading this thread I have decided to scale back my BTC holdings.  If it is a big deal and if AI routinely attacks and beats safety measures as this was obvious AI crypto will tank like mad.

I do not need too much exposure in the space. I sold about 30% of my coins today.

Generally speaking, the amplitude of bitcoin oscillations seem to be decreasing, but too few data points, still.
If we did not surge up too much in 2025, then, by the same token maybe we shouldn't plunge as much as previously, but it is not the strong rule, of course.

So far, we went down to around 58K (on June 25), which is roughly 54% down from the 126K top.
It seems that June 25 price undercut Feb 6 price by about 2K.
Whether the price was slightly different on some other platforms, I don't care.
I can easily see the price close to 58K being a low, but it doesn't have to be. Maybe 50:50.
Among the 38-58K continuum, it seems that some people point to the middle of that rage (at 48K) as a distinct possibility (-62%).
Sounds quite brutal and a bit unlikely to me, again, considering a weak bull.
Difficulty decrease is already bigger than before and quite a few params (but not all) indicating a bottom are already flashing.

In the end, it might depend on some factors that are not easy to see rn.
EDIT: my personal hope is for 75K by 12/31.

That is not like much of a top for 2025, yet surely some movements into the $70ks would be nice

[Biodom]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

I don't recall that someone sold 30% as @JJG says, albeit i might simply not paid enough attention. I did not sell any.

Not to be too much of a stalker (like some other thread participant), but there is evidence of such claim:

Well After reading this thread I have decided to scale back my BTC holdings.  If it is a big deal and if AI routinely attacks and beats safety measures as this was obvious AI crypto will tank like mad.

I do not need too much exposure in the space. I sold about 30% of my coins today.

Generally speaking, the amplitude of bitcoin oscillations seem to be decreasing, but too few data points, still.
If we did not surge up too much in 2025, then, by the same token maybe we shouldn't plunge as much as previously, but it is not the strong rule, of course.

So far, we went down to around 58K (on June 25), which is roughly 54% down from the 126K top.
It seems that June 25 price undercut Feb 6 price by about 2K.
Whether the price was slightly different on some other platforms, I don't care.
I can easily see the price close to 58K being a low, but it doesn't have to be. Maybe 50:50.
Among the 38-58K continuum, it seems that some people point to the middle of that rage (at 48K) as a distinct possibility (-62%).
Sounds quite brutal and a bit unlikely to me, again, considering a weak bull.
Difficulty decrease is already bigger than before and quite a few params (but not all) indicating a bottom are already flashing.

In the end, it might depend on some factors that are not easy to see rn.
EDIT: my personal hope is for 75K by 12/31.

That is not like much of a top for 2026 2025, yet surely some movements into the $70ks would be nice

Ah, thanks, it was phil, of course, fast on both uptake and release.
Sometimes it just goes over my head..without saying that it was justified or not.
fixed the year for you

[philipma1957]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

Way up or way down.

We leave the 58-68k slot

Hoping 85-95k slot by years end.

But of course if we tank like mad 40k is not impossible.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

I don't recall that someone sold 30% as @JJG says, albeit i might simply not paid enough attention. I did not sell any.
Generally speaking, the amplitude of bitcoin oscillations seem to be decreasing, but too few data points, still.
If we did not surge up too much in 2025, then, by the same token maybe we shouldn't plunge as much as previously, but it is not the strong rule, of course.

So far, we went down to around 58K (on June 25), which is roughly 54% down from the 126K top.
It seems that June 25 price undercut Feb 6 price by about 2K.
Whether the price was slightly different on some other platforms, I don't care.
I can easily see the price close to 58K being a low, but it doesn't have to be. Maybe 50:50.
Among the 38-58K continuum, it seems that some people point to the middle of that rage (at 48K) as a distinct possibility (-62%).
Sounds quite brutal and a bit unlikely to me, again, considering a weak bull.
Difficulty decrease is already bigger than before and quite a few params (but not all) indicating a bottom are already flashing.

In the end, it might depend on some factors that are not easy to see rn.
EDIT: my personal hope is for 75K by 12/31.

I sold .85
Out of 2.3

Leaving 1.45

Can't take a full on hit if we are to collapse

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Rumors are being floated that Senate Majority Leader John Thune has confirmed Congress will stay in session for the CLARITY Act vote before recess.

[JayJuanGee]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

Way up or way down.
We leave the 58-68k slot

Hoping 85-95k slot by years end.
But of course if we tank like mad 40k is not impossible.

I was going to comment in that other thread, but I am way behind in that thread so I tend to resist commenting when I am so far behind in a thread.  Once I catch up, then I don't tend to resist or hesitate in my commenting.

Remember in about Sept. 2022 you were waiting for sub $12k (or was it sub $10k?) that never ended up coming, and so you sold a bunch of BTC around $20k and you were pumping T-bills that had a pretty long lock-in periods, and a guy surely would not have had done better buying T-bills in those times as compared with buying dee cornz.

[edited out]

I sold .85
Out of 2.3

Leaving 1.45
Can't take a full on hit if we are to collapse

Part of the problem is that you are old, and you are not really investing for 4-10 years or more, which would be a better timeline for bitcoin investing, and so you end up buying high and selling low, and your rationale doesn't tend to be good.

You think that there is some kind of a benefit to "take a loss" for tax purposes, and other tending to be lame excuses... when the fact of the matter, guys who have had 4-10 year or longer investment time lines, have tended to do much better, and of course, the longer the timeline the better that they have tended to do.

Selling at seeming bottoms is not a great practice and really goes to show overinvestment, whether we are talking about relatively small amounts of BTC or not... Although surely guys who have been in bitcoin for a couple of cycles or more, they likely have average costs per BTC that are quite a bit below $20k per BTC, and yeah of course, the longer that any of us has been in, then likely our average costs are lower as long as we errored on the side of buying and holding and not getting too caught up in selling in order to buy back cheaper or selling to panic or selling to try to trade.

Your ongoing thinking that more than a year or a couple of years are long timelines, do not tend to be "investment" sufficient in bitcoinlandia, even though you would not understand investing if it slapped you in the face...   You seem to not understand the difference between investing and trading, and you think that they are the same thing.

Yeah, of course, it really sucks for long time holders of bitcoin who had produced their seed phrase with a cold card - especially in the past 5-ish years (without any extra entropy), and there are quite a few OG bitcoiners who are in deep sadness about their own involvement with cold card and their having had recommended that wallet to their friends, family and to other bitcoiners.  It can be tough to make wallet recommendations, even though from time to time, we do go down that path, even in these here parts.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

I for one am completely surprised it has been suppressed for this long.