Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Spaceman1000$]

We are SOOOOO back!  Moon soon©

Jim Cramer for me is just being exaggerated with his line of thought, this are the kind narrative he brings that drives panic, why does he do that, I really don't know, if he is so sure of what the future holds, he wouldn't have even kept his BTC up till now while trying to gaslight people with quantum computing risk.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BTCETFInvestor]

Hey dickhead, scumbag shit-for brains JJG - A surge in institutional demand, highlighted by BlackRock's $111 million ETF purchase and net inflows of $170 million across spot Bitcoin ETFs, provided strong upward momentum despite ongoing self-custody security fears.

[Lucius]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

For me personally, anything above $60k is positive considering the global challenges we face, whether it's wars, politics that cause chaos, or climate change that is visible at every turn. I don't know about the rest of the world, but this year has been catastrophic for Europe, heat waves are burning everything in their path, fires are raging in Western Europe, and the largest rivers are recording their lowest water levels in the past 200 years, resulting in nuclear power plants running out of water to cool their reactors.

Someone might say that this has nothing to do with the price of BTC, but in the bigger picture I think it does, at least when it comes to retail investors. More money spent on AC (electricity) and water, and increased food prices due to the drought (especially fruits and vegetables) take a lot more money out of people's pockets than would otherwise be the case.

This coldcard idiocy is definitely a big minus that spreads like a nasty virus among ordinary people who started talking about how Bitcoin was hacked because they don't know what a seed, private key or weak entropy is.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-08-04 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-08-04 10:09 AM CT

Tuesday opens with Bitcoin flat at $64,118, up 0.56% over 24 hours, but the Fear & Greed Index at 25 (Extreme Fear) tells the real story: sentiment is deteriorating even as price holds above the 30-day average. The dominant narrative is on-chain strength colliding with weak spot momentum, as daily active addresses and transfer volumes push above statistical bands while net selling pressure persists. This is a grind, not a recovery, and the market is waiting for a catalyst to break the standoff.

Outlook: Watch whether the on-chain activity spike translates into sustained buying or just marks distribution, especially with long-term holder supply near historical lows. The Coldcard exploit fallout, now estimated at $100-130 million in losses, could keep pressuring sentiment if more attack waves surface, but ETF inflows rebounding last week offer a counterweight.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $64,118.00, up 0.56% over 24 hours and up 0.2% over seven days. The derived Institutional Lag Composite reads +0 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers look to be in control near the $63,000 support, but the narrowing 30-day gain suggests the pressure is fading. The Fear & Greed reading of 25 points to extreme caution, though that sentiment has not translated into a decisive break lower. Holding $63,000 keeps the range intact, while a close above $65,500 would signal that buyers have regained the initiative. A daily close below $63,000 would likely open the path toward $61,500, and that is the line that flips the current standoff.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $63,000 (47%): triggers: Bitcoin holds $63,000 on daily closes through Friday, with the Fear & Greed index staying below 30. Invalidation: A daily close below $63,000 within five trading days.
- Upside Reclaim of $65,500 (42%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims $65,500 on a daily close within five trading days, with the Fear & Greed index rising above 35. Invalidation: A daily close below $63,000 within five trading days.
- Downside Re-test of $61,500 (11%): triggers: Bitcoin loses $63,000 on a daily close within five trading days, targeting $61,500. Invalidation: A daily close back above $63,000 within five trading days.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Coldcard exploit fallout: The vulnerability, now tied to at least 15 attackers and up to $130 million in losses, raises hardware wallet trust concerns that could weigh on sentiment beyond the immediate price action.
- On-chain activity surge: Daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moving above upper statistical bands suggest real network usage is rising even as price stalls, a divergence worth monitoring for direction.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Drifts Lower as On-Chain Activity Strengthens
URL: https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-32-2026
Published: 2026-08-03 08:31 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin slipped to around $62.6k after failing to hold above $66k, with spot momentum moderating and persistent net selling pressure. Derivatives positioning was mixed, as open interest contracted while funding rates rose and sell-side taker volume eased. Options markets leaned defensive, with the 25-delta skew widening and speculative open interest shrinking, though ETF flows rebounded with higher weekly net inflows and trading volume. On-chain activity picked up materially, with daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moving above upper statistical bands, alongside a modest rise in fresh capital and stabilizing outflows. Long-term holder conviction stayed resilient, with the short-term to long-term holder supply ratio near historical lows, but market-wide profitability weakened as the share of supply in profit neared cyclical lows and realized spending turned defensive.

2. Former FBI Supervisor Charged in $1M Crypto Theft
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-fbi-supervisor-charged-1m-crypto-theft
Published: 2026-08-04
Summary: Former FBI supervisory agent Patrick Steven Yaroch pleaded guilty to stealing about $1 million in digital assets from an adversarial country. He used internal systems to obtain credentials for cryptocurrency wallets and made 10 unauthorized transfers between late 2024 and early 2025. Yaroch deposited some of the stolen funds into Suilend to earn yield. After self-reporting, he was placed on administrative leave, terminated, and arrested; agents recovered devices, seed phrases, and a Trezor wallet from his Virginia residence. With his cooperation, roughly $925,000 was transferred to government-controlled wallets.

3. Eric Trump-Led American Bitcoin To Adopt Michael Saylor's Approach of Selling BTC to Support Economics? CEO Says...
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/eric-trump-led-american-bitcoin-073725523.html
Published: 2026-08-04 03:37 AM CT
Summary: American Bitcoin Corp. CEO Mike Ho sidestepped questions about selling Bitcoin to fund equity buybacks, a strategy some peers have used. Ho stressed the company's commitment to its 'North Star' of enhancing Bitcoin per share, noting holdings grew 14% in Q2 while shares rose 3%, boosting per-share Bitcoin by about 11%. The company reported Q2 revenue of $67.015 million, missing the $73 million estimate, and a loss per share of $0.80, far wider than the expected $0.15 loss. Eric Trump, co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer, reiterated the firm's stance as 'absolute Bitcoin maximalists,' saying Bitcoin has an incredible future. American Bitcoin holds 8,300 BTC worth $527 million, making it the 16th-largest corporate holder, though its stock has plunged 95% since going public.

4. At least 15 attackers exploited Coldcard vulnerability: Galaxy
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/15-attackers-exploited-coldcard-vulnerability-galaxy
Published: 2026-08-04
Summary: Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, said at least 15 different attackers exploited the Coldcard vulnerability, with new victim reports helping identify previously unknown attackers. One victim's report of less than 1 BTC stolen led to the discovery of a separate attack that siphoned 12 BTC from 126 addresses. Estimated losses from the exploit have grown to $100 million across three confirmed attack waves, with a suspected fourth wave potentially bringing total losses to about $130 million in Bitcoin. Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi claimed that roughly $2 of AI hardening could have prevented the exploit, citing social media reports that some AI models rediscovered the vulnerability in under 20 minutes. Castle Labs co-founder Francesco said Coldcard used a private key entropy of 40 bits, much lower than the standard 128 bits used by other wallets, due to a firmware bug, making the exploit easier.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.11 | deepseek-v4-flash-0731

[BobLawblaw]

2. Former FBI Supervisor Charged in $1M Crypto Theft
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-fbi-supervisor-charged-1m-crypto-theft
Published: 2026-08-04
Summary: Former FBI supervisory agent Patrick Steven Yaroch pleaded guilty to stealing about $1 million in digital assets from an adversarial country. He used internal systems to obtain credentials for cryptocurrency wallets and made 10 unauthorized transfers between late 2024 and early 2025. Yaroch deposited some of the stolen funds into Suilend to earn yield. After self-reporting, he was placed on administrative leave, terminated, and arrested; agents recovered devices, seed phrases, and a Trezor wallet from his Virginia residence. With his cooperation, roughly $925,000 was transferred to government-controlled wallets.
BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.11 | deepseek-v4-flash-0731

A lot of work behind the scenes on newspost.py lately. Just pushed a fix that forces the model to include bitcoin-related information from the article in the summary. Was not happy with the summary it produced above, not mentioning Bitcoin figures at all.

Let's see how 1.4.12 runs tonight.

1.4.12 re-summarized it, behind the scenes.

Former FBI Supervisor Charged in $1M Crypto Theft
**URL:** https://cointelegraph.com/news/former-fbi-supervisor-charged-1m-crypto-theft
**Published:** 2026-08-04 (time unknown)
**Summary:** Former FBI supervisory agent Patrick Steven Yaroch pleaded guilty to stealing about $1 million worth of digital assets from an adversarial country. Yaroch used internal systems to obtain credentials for cryptocurrency wallets and made 10 unauthorized transfers between late 2024 and early 2025. He deposited some of the stolen funds into Suilend to earn yield, and he used ChatGPT for investment advice in May. After self-reporting, he was placed on administrative leave, terminated, and arrested, with agents recovering roughly $925,000 in funds to government-controlled wallets. The case follows prior federal agent thefts, including a 2015 DEA agent who diverted about $700,000 in Bitcoin and a Secret Service agent who stole about $350,000 in BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

We are SOOOOO back!  Moon soon©

Please community, is quantum computer something that should worry us? Is the quantum threat yet another FUD? If not, is there anything being done at the moment to protect us and to avoid "medicine after death".

Does the proposed BIP-360 proposal solve the problem? I know this have not been adopted yet and the chances of it being adopted is slim due to the constraint associated with migrating Bitcoin in odd and probably abandoned wallets like that of Satoshi.

I sincerely need feedbacks from the community as I'm looking worried and confused.

You think that bitcoin is an all or nothing?  Why can't you just choose your bitcoin position size and account for the fact that there could be various threats to bitcoin along the way.
 
Is there any significant difference now as compared to the various historical threats to bitcoin?  I doubt that bitcoin's investment thesis is weakening in any meaningful way, even though there are always things going on that both help it to become stronger and things going on that help to weaken bitcoin.

There are some bitcoiners who are more technical than others, and the technical ones will bring you into various technical weeds about bitcoin, yet over the years, the super technical folks have not always been correct about bitcoin, and some of those guys either refused to take a position, or they sold out of whatever position that they had or maybe they just maintained some whimpy position.

Each of us should be able to figure out some position size that helps us to feel comfortable, and if you are scared as shit about quantum computing, then maybe you either need to lower your position or stop accumulating bitcoin or learn more about quantum computing.

If we go by your forum registration date, then maybe you have been accumulating bitcoin for 2.5 years, so then maybe your average cost per BTC could well be higher than current costs, so maybe your average is around $75k to $80k per BTC?

Guys can choose whether to continue to accumulate or not or just to hold through this period, and sure some guys cut their looses like gooses, and some of them will regret their decisions later down the road, and maybe perhaps 4 years from now, you are like, "oh shit.  I cannot go back to mid-2026 and do over what I had done."

What is the balance?  Only you can decide for yourself in regards to how much you are putting into bitcoin and if you are putting in too much, too little or just right (like the three bears in goldilocks.)

Wasn't another member (@asUHWEceyc) talking about brainwallets, and surely brainwallets might work for short periods, and some folks think that they have such great memories, which surely they could become glitched, so there may well be needs to have back ups of wallets that are based on memories...even remembering where the back ups are and how they are stored can be difficult, which may be a good reason to tell someone else who is trustworthy, and sometimes we don't have people we can trust in our lives.  As we age, the trustworthy ones might have all died.   

To be clear, not BIP-39 wallets (although unanimously discouraged for implementation!!! ):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4768828.0
https://rya.nc/defcon-brainwallets.html

It seems that I had hardly any clue in regards to what a "brainwallet" was within the context that you were using it or those linked threads, even though surely maybe I could browse through the forum thread, even though it is a bit stale of a thread since it goes back to 2018.

I did a quickie AI search on the concept, and it appears that I was thinking about "brainwallet" in a different way, since it seems that brainwallets would be to make your own secret phrase with the BIP - 39 words, rather than selecting words randomly... so then there is vulnerability due to lack of randomness.

I was thinking that a brainwallet might be memorizing BIP 39 words that had already been created (presumptively randomly).

Two different kinds of vulnerabilities.  The first one is the vulnerability of making up a non-random passphrase in order to be able to remember your private keys more easily, and then the second one's vulnerability relates to the fallibility of memory for anyone who might be trying to remember their private keys (or their seed words) without having them backed up in some physical way.

[Numan467]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

Probably more crab/consolidation in the short term until macro conditions or ETF volume gives us a clear direction. Long-term trend remains structurally intact, but short term feels like leverage getting flushed out on both ends.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

So what do we think for the BTC price the coming week/months?

IDK. I was busy doing things, and i even missed the last FED meeting, but if the price moved only that little since, i believe they held the rates steady, which i don't wonder too much about because Don Trump is still happily pushing inflation and punishing the US markets.
Well, you can't make a donkey talk (No, Shrek! Just hold it back!) so there's that.
The cycle theory may present to us another $10-$20k drop, until say October, but if (k)not(s), i suggest we're going sideways through the summer of the crab.
May the fall of rocket.gifs be more forgiving to the bulls of us.

[Volgastallion]

Ohhh here we go again..... all the silly people start to panic over the quantum computer when is already a dead end discussion regarding BTC, i mean come on the post-quantum encryption  is already knew and is gonna work since is a math thing, so is no need to panic at all we only have to be aware of it and update whent he time arrives.

So i dont like this panic created after the coldcard issue which it was more to do with some human issue and stupid no re-check from a company than anything related to an IA finding this.

About the BTC price..... it becoming the Groundhog Day not only because is the same patron for a few months but the real Groundhog Day is from Trump.

You wake up and read " We are gonna blow up all Iran....."

The next day " We a deal"

The other day " They are gonna be punish badly"

Day 12837231: "WE have a deal"

And so on...... come on stop this bullshit.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Ohhh here we go again..... all the silly people start to panic over the quantum computer when is already a dead end discussion regarding BTC, i mean come on the post-quantum encryption  is already knew and is gonna work since is a math thing, so is no need to panic at all we only have to be aware of it and update whent he time arrives.

So i dont like this panic created after the coldcard issue which it was more to do with some human issue and stupid no re-check from a company than anything related to an IA finding this.

About the BTC price..... it becoming the Groundhog Day not only because is the same patron for a few months but the real Groundhog Day is from Trump.

You wake up and read " We are gonna blow up all Iran....."

The next day " We a deal"

The other day " They are gonna be punish badly"

Day 12837231: "WE have a deal"

And so on...... come on stop this bullshit.

As long as he can suck out money from oil, he will do shit, and if he can't, he will melk some other market.
A greedy bitch is a greedy bitch.

I'll read up now what is up with quantum this time, but i doubt it will be meaningful.
It's not that i wouldn't appreciate a good dip, or a bit of Cramers (ex-)stash in the process.

EDIT: Been there, done that. So it's the same old FUD about the powerful, omni-crashing quantum computer that will be finished "soon", while a look at the past of QC tells us there have been numerous announcements and deadlines regarding this, but none of them held up to their promises.
But then, even if such computer existed tomorrow, who would have the money to run one, to whom would IBM even be allowed sell it, and why should IBM itself illegally crack Bitcoin?

[xhomerx10]

Hey dickhead, scumbag shit-for brains JJG - A surge in institutional demand, highlighted by BlackRock's $111 million ETF purchase and net inflows of $170 million across spot Bitcoin ETFs, provided strong upward momentum despite ongoing self-custody security fears.

Yeah but not on the weekend, eh?  This might be fine in the doldrums but when we moon, or when China bans Bitcoin again you have to be agile.

[OutOfMemory]

Hey dickhead, scumbag shit-for brains JJG - A surge in institutional demand, highlighted by BlackRock's $111 million ETF purchase and net inflows of $170 million across spot Bitcoin ETFs, provided strong upward momentum despite ongoing self-custody security fears.

Yeah but not on the weekend, eh?  This might be fine in the doldrums but when we moon, or when China bans Bitcoin again you have to be agile.

Oh, he definitely didn't learn all the lessons we had to learn in the past 

[BTCETFInvestor]

Hey dickhead, scumbag shit-for brains JJG - A surge in institutional demand, highlighted by BlackRock's $111 million ETF purchase and net inflows of $170 million across spot Bitcoin ETFs, provided strong upward momentum despite ongoing self-custody security fears.

Yeah but not on the weekend, eh?  This might be fine in the doldrums but when we moon, or when China bans Bitcoin again you have to be agile.

Oh, he definitely didn't learn all the lessons we had to learn in the past  

OOM - Thank goodness I didn't need to learn those lessons that you and many others unfortunately had to learn in the past...  

There is a huge shift toward institutional custody from self-custody - investors in Bitcoin with spot ETFs is expected to grow tremendously by leaps and bounds. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Cool vid from the dude that never blinks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NufJ7g63KSY