It seems to me that the threat of the BIP 110 signaling (from last Saturday) at the change of the difficulty was the most uncertain in terms of what was going to happen, and if it is boiling down to simple hardfork nonsense, we have been there and done that, and they are likely losing support for any of that causing any level uncertainty because it becomes easier and easier to completely ignore whatever they are doing, even though surely some of their supporters have already lost time, money and energy supporting their various shenanigans.
In other words, I could have had seen the uncertainty of the BIP 110 signaling going into last Saturday to have had been potentially contributing to market uncertainties, and now there is no real meaningful uncertainties related to the BIP 110 supporters and/or whatever they might choose to do with their lil wannabe fork chain.
Even then, not so much. The blocksize fork had numerous serious supporters on both sides with serious hardcore debate and discussion going on. There were long-term Bitcoin heavyweights on both sides, proposals, clients, mass censorship, forum coups, miner support.
I don't agree with your characterization.
Sure. There were BIG hitters on both sides, yet many of the 110 supporters were into calling into question their perceptions of the tyrannical behaviors of Core developers and desires to teach a lesson in regards to the power of the people... Yet those 110 supporters were likely ONLY willing to go so far, including that the evidence of actual computing power behind 110 seems to have had been nearly completely absent, to the extent that even 1% to 3% might be willing to continue to hang on, I really doubt that too many of them really want to create a shitcoin when it appears that they do not have even close to as much actual physical and material power of the people support as they were believing might be hidden behind the scenes.
It was a genuine question and fight and the fork still lost.
Of course, there are some quite valid talking points behind the concerns of the BIP 110 supporters.
Compared to that, this BIP110 thing was a fart in the wind. Nobody really cared apart from the small band pushing it and it offered no (claimed) significant improvements for Bitcoin's trajectory.
We seem to be saying similar things here.. or at least somewhat in agreement.
To draw an analogy with something current, I think that with the price of Bitcoin we are like Odysseus's crew, going round and round the seas without being able to get out of the 60k funnel, maybe a few more weak hands still need to die before the gods of BTC and the market let us return to Ithaca (100k+).
Maybe our BTC is talking so much with Calypso and the BIP110 with the lotus flower (COLDCard) is not letting us goes free.
You seem to be correct with your implication that when a lot of bitcoin-related uncertainties are resolved, then the resolution of such uncertainties result in the rise of bitcoin prices.
For some reason, the market remains unwilling to go up. I get the sense that both the BIP 110 matter and the ColdCard matter are largely in a status of sufficient containment, so then there must be other matters that continue to contribute to uncertainties. I would not assert the Clarity Act matter is in a state of uncertainty, since that seems to be a "no go" in spite of claims of a "vote in mid-September" blah blah blah. World macro matters and liquidity might continue to be matters of concern.
AI trades seem to be peaking out, yet I am not going to proclaim any expertise about those matters... The more I try to think about further happenings, the more I get the sense that I am just guessing (talking out of my ass), so I better stop while I am ahead, and just say it could go either way, even though we seem to be downtrending in the past day or two in spite of feelings that we might be at a bottom, too. 50/50? What is the timeline? $57k or $75k? Which comes first? We are much closer to $57k, yet at the same time, we have not seen $57k yet (as a local bottom), the lowest we got was $57,735 on June 30 / July 1 (depending on your time zone).
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