Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Hueristic]

Corporate AI shooting itself in the foot to please regulators. Perfect advertisement for open-weight models.

zuckie will go to open weights:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/meta-muse-glimmer-open-weight-ai.html

Local LLMs win again.

fight fire with fire as they say

Qwen 3.8 is out and its a beast.

[Lucius]

~snip~
3. Robert Kiyosaki Links Bitcoin and AI to an Old Prediction: Who Made It
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/robert-kiyosaki-links-bitcoin-ai-213204828.html
Published: 2026-08-14 05:32 PM CT
Summary: Robert Kiyosaki credits his mentor, R. Buckminster Fuller, with shaping his worldview and predicts that Bitcoin and AI will drive transformative change. Kiyosaki studied under Fuller for three summers, and he describes Fuller's principle that purpose comes from serving others as his life's turning point. Bitcoin trades near $62,773, roughly 50% below its October 2025 record high above $126,000, according to BeInCrypto data. Kiyosaki maintains his bullish stance, holding Bitcoin since 2012 and forecasting a price of $750,000 after a financial reset.
[/tt]
BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.12 | deepseek-v4-flash-0731

Does anyone else think that Bitcoin must necessarily go hand in hand with AI in the sense that together they will lead to "transformative change"? It seems to me more like he's trying to cushion the blow from BTC miners switching to AI and the agenda that AI will "kill/weaken" Bitcoin.

As for the financial reset (whatever he means by that), if something catastrophic really happens in the world of finance, it's unlikely that Bitcoin will remain intact and reach the value he's talking about. By the way, his mentor he talks about died in 1983, he could hardly have predicted something like Bitcoin or AI.

[Hueristic]

~snip~
3. Robert Kiyosaki Links Bitcoin and AI to an Old Prediction: Who Made It
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/robert-kiyosaki-links-bitcoin-ai-213204828.html
Published: 2026-08-14 05:32 PM CT
Summary: Robert Kiyosaki credits his mentor, R. Buckminster Fuller, with shaping his worldview and predicts that Bitcoin and AI will drive transformative change. Kiyosaki studied under Fuller for three summers, and he describes Fuller's principle that purpose comes from serving others as his life's turning point. Bitcoin trades near $62,773, roughly 50% below its October 2025 record high above $126,000, according to BeInCrypto data. Kiyosaki maintains his bullish stance, holding Bitcoin since 2012 and forecasting a price of $750,000 after a financial reset.
[/tt]
BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.12 | deepseek-v4-flash-0731

Does anyone else think that Bitcoin must necessarily go hand in hand with AI in the sense that together they will lead to "transformative change"? It seems to me more like he's trying to cushion the blow from BTC miners switching to AI and the agenda that AI will "kill/weaken" Bitcoin.

As for the financial reset (whatever he means by that), if something catastrophic really happens in the world of finance, it's unlikely that Bitcoin will remain intact and reach the value he's talking about. By the way, his mentor he talks about died in 1983, he could hardly have predicted something like Bitcoin or AI.

He's a Grifter that's not worth a second of our time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-08-15 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-08-15 09:03 AM CT

Bitcoin is grinding sideways on a quiet Saturday, up 0.72% over 24 hours but still down 3.0% over the past week, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 34 for seven straight days. The dominant story today is Abu Dhabi's sovereign funds losing $118 million on their BlackRock Bitcoin ETF stake and not selling a single share, which reads as patient conviction rather than panic. Price sits below the 30-day moving average of $64,209, and with thin weekend liquidity, this feels like noise, not a trend reversal.

Outlook: Watch whether the Abu Dhabi funds' hold-steady stance spreads to other institutional holders, especially after Intesa Sanpaolo slashed its IBIT position by 93.7% last quarter. Also keep an eye on whether Bitcoin can close August above $63,000, which 10x Research's Markus Thielen says would confirm a bear-market bottom. No clear catalyst is on the calendar, so expect more chop until liquidity returns Monday.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $62,996.00, up 0.72% over 24 hours and down 3.0% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -2 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers remain in control while the market chops below resistance at $64,500, but the pace of decline has slowed and the Fear & Greed reading of 34 suggests sentiment is weak rather than panicked. The immediate question is whether buyers can defend support at $61,500, which has held so far and now serves as the line between a consolidation and a deeper slide. A daily close above $64,500 would signal that dip buyers are regaining the initiative, while a break below $61,500 would open the path toward $60,500. The narrow 24-hour range and the modest positive tick suggest reduced selling urgency, though that is a hypothesis, not a confirmed shift. Until one of those levels gives way, the tape favors patience over conviction.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $61,500 (45%): triggers: Bitcoin holds $61,500 on daily closes through Friday, while the Fear & Greed index stays between 25 and 45. Invalidation: A daily close below $61,500 within five trading days, or a Fear & Greed reading above 60 that signals a premature breakout attempt.
- Upside Reclaim of $64,500 (23%): triggers: Bitcoin reclaims $64,500 on a daily close within five trading days, with the Fear & Greed index moving above 40. Invalidation: A daily close back below $61,500 within five trading days, or a failure to hold $64,500 for two consecutive sessions.
- Downside Re-test of $60,500 (32%): triggers: Bitcoin loses $61,500 on a daily close within five trading days, with the Fear & Greed index dropping below 25. Invalidation: A daily close back above $64,500 within five trading days, or a bounce off $61,500 that holds for three consecutive sessions.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Institutional patience: Abu Dhabi's two sovereign funds held their 22.94 million IBIT shares through a $118 million loss, signaling long-term conviction that contrasts with Intesa Sanpaolo's 93.7% exit, a split that could shape ETF flow narratives next week.
- Miner economics: The 2.64% difficulty drop, alongside a stable hashrate near 650 EH/s, hints at reduced mining competition, which may lower sell pressure from miners covering costs.

TOP STORIES

1. Bitcoin Drop Cost Abu Dhabi $118 Million: Will They Sell
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-drop-cost-abu-dhabi-110506535.html
Published: 2026-08-15 07:05 AM CT
Summary: Two Abu Dhabi sovereign funds, Mubadala Investment Company and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council, lost $118 million on their BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) stake in the second quarter, but neither sold a single share, according to SEC filings. The combined 22.94 million IBIT shares were worth $764 million on June 30, down from $881 million three months earlier, and $302 million below their May peak. Bitcoin opened April near $68,079, climbed to $82,139 by May 10, then shed 17.9% in June to end at $58,559. The funds' share counts were unchanged, with Mubadala holding 14.72 million shares and the Investment Council holding 8.22 million, signaling a long-term horizon rather than a trade. Meanwhile, Intesa Sanpaolo cut its IBIT holding by 93.7%, and spot Bitcoin funds shed 3,170 BTC in late July, while Bitcoin traded near $62,957 on Saturday, almost 50% below its record of $126,080 set on Oct. 6, 2025.

2. Bitcoin $1M By 2030 Is 'Mathematically Impossible' Says Markus Thielen
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/magazine/bitcoin-1m-by-2030-is-mathematically-impossible-markus-thielen
Published: 2026-08-15 08:30 AM CT
Summary: Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, argues that Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030 is mathematically impossible, citing the need for roughly $15 trillion in additional capital inflows. He notes that Bitcoin's market cap is around $1.28 trillion, with the price near $63,868, and that historical inflows over 15 years totaled about $1 trillion. Thielen says higher prices weaken retail sentiment, as investors prefer owning whole Bitcoins rather than fractions, and he warns that the $126,000 all-time high may not reappear quickly. He suggests that even a return to $100,000 would be a major achievement. Thielen criticizes bold price predictions from executives like Brian Armstrong, Jack Dorsey, and Cathie Wood as media attention grabs that can hurt retail investors.

3. Bitcoin Could Bottom in October, Altcoins Are 'Basically Dead,' Swan CEO Says
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-bottom-october-altcoins-basically-dead-swan-ceo
Published: 2026-08-15 07:57 AM CT
Summary: Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said Bitcoin could bottom in October, roughly a year after its peak above $126,000 in early October 2025, and then recover to around $130,000 ahead of the 2028 halving. He cautioned against extrapolating from only a few previous cycles, noting that Bitcoin has bottomed about 12 months after each prior bull market peak. Klippsten also said Bitcoin could fall to $57,000 or even $53,000 before a quick recovery. Markus Thielen of 10x Research said Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August with a monthly close above $63,000. Klippsten called altcoins 'basically dead' as competitors to Bitcoin as money, arguing that the best outcome for crypto and DeFi is to become part of TradFi, and he pointed to Hyperliquid as a centralized business that will eventually be absorbed by traditional finance.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.12 | deepseek-v4-flash-0731

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[vapourminer]

Qwen 3.8 is out and its a beast.

its the JJG of LLMs. that thing wont shut up 

[Hueristic]

Qwen 3.8 is out and its a beast.

its the JJG of LLMs. that thing wont shut up  

Yeah, I generally run temp from 0.0 to .07, I forget what the defaults are.

There is a new setting --reasoning off for strict coding work. I think the others are low.med.high. and max or something if you like pain.
Edit: using --reasoning off low  currently during evals.


Let me find something.

1. The On/Off Switch (enable_thinking)
If you just want it to give you the answer directly without the internal monologue, you need to pass the enable_thinking parameter and set it to false
huggingface.co
. Depending on the API wrapper or UI you are using, this is often passed in the extra_body or as a direct parameter
github.com
{
  "model": "qwen3.8-27b",
  "messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Your prompt here"}],
  "extra_body": {
    "enable_thinking": false
  }
}

2. The Token Cap (thinking_budget)
If you want it to think, but you want to stop it from over-analyzing simple questions, you can use thinking_budget to cap the number of tokens it spends reasoning
kingy.ai
. By default, this budget is famously huge (up to 131,072 tokens), which is why your buddy feels like it won't shut up
kingy.ai
. Setting it to a lower number forces it to wrap up its thoughts and get to the point.
3. The Depth Lever (reasoning_effort)
If you are using the hosted API, you can also control the depth of the reasoning by passing reasoning_effort
www.developersdigest.tech
. You can set this to strings like "low", "medium", or "high" (or even "xhigh" for maximum overthinking) to adjust how hard it tries to solve the problem
www.developersdigest.tech
.
4. For Local Runners (Ollama, LM Studio, etc.)
If your buddy is running the open-weight Qwen 3.8-27B locally, the settings depend on the tool:

    Ollama CLI: You can type /set nothink in the terminal to disable thinking mode for your current session
    ollama.com
    .
    Prompt Hacking: Many local interfaces allow you to append /no_think directly to the end of your prompt to force the model into a direct-answer mode
    community.home-assistant.io
    .

Qwen 3.8 is out and its a beast.

its the JJG of LLMs. that thing wont shut up  

I'm actually hoping that bottlecap will release a thinking cap version soon, the 3.6-mtp thinkingcap was my favorite 27b I think.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[eXPHorizon]

Hell answers to me, for i am Doom.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

Buddy setting up for a nice dip.

Maybe 56k?

So far 60k has given solid support to Bitcoin. Lets see whether this support is broken this time, I don't think so.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Bit-Mj1014]

OT: Anthropic just "offed" themselves, basically, by adding watermarks to their AI generated work.
Why? Because now no one can use their tools and then claim credit for a text, program, code, whatever.
Massive cancellations are likely, imho.

With a paywall: https://www.businessinsider.com/claude-users-cancel-subscriptions-citing-anthropic-new-ai-watermark-2026-8

No paywall, but a bit goofy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4_-y67JGCU

Kind of a nothing burger, apparently if you write a few thousand pages and tell it to fix spelling and buff the grammar it will insert the word code for the watermark.

But all that needs to be done is to take even its generated content and do the same with a local llm and it gets stripped out.

Of course as usual the only ones that are going to get hurt by this is the honest users.

It’s fascinating looking at both of these situations side by side. It really shows how hard it is to balance keeping things regulated and keeping the actual users happy. Whether it’s shifting market rules in crypto or corporate compliance in AI, it always seems to be the everyday users who have to adapt. It definitely makes you appreciate the projects that try to stay open and flexible.

[Hueristic]

OT: Anthropic just "offed" themselves, basically, by adding watermarks to their AI generated work.
Why? Because now no one can use their tools and then claim credit for a text, program, code, whatever.
Massive cancellations are likely, imho.

With a paywall: https://www.businessinsider.com/claude-users-cancel-subscriptions-citing-anthropic-new-ai-watermark-2026-8

No paywall, but a bit goofy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4_-y67JGCU

Kind of a nothing burger, apparently if you write a few thousand pages and tell it to fix spelling and buff the grammar it will insert the word code for the watermark.

But all that needs to be done is to take even its generated content and do the same with a local llm and it gets stripped out.

Of course as usual the only ones that are going to get hurt by this is the honest users.

It’s fascinating looking at both of these situations side by side. It really shows how hard it is to balance keeping things regulated and keeping the actual users happy. Whether it’s shifting market rules in crypto or corporate compliance in AI, it always seems to be the everyday users who have to adapt. It definitely makes you appreciate the projects that try to stay open and flexible.

Kind of reminiscent of the beginnings of the game industry trying to stop piracy, its a zero sum game that only hurts those that follow the rules.

Aye Matey?

[vapourminer]

Kind of a nothing burger, apparently if you write a few thousand pages and tell it to fix spelling and buff the grammar it will insert the word code for the watermark.

But all that needs to be done is to take even its generated content and do the same with a local llm and it gets stripped out.

Of course as usual the only ones that are going to get hurt by this is the honest users.

It’s fascinating looking at both of these situations side by side. It really shows how hard it is to balance keeping things regulated and keeping the actual users happy. Whether it’s shifting market rules in crypto or corporate compliance in AI, it always seems to be the everyday users who have to adapt. It definitely makes you appreciate the projects that try to stay open and flexible.

Kind of reminiscent of the beginnings of the game industry trying to stop piracy, its a zero sum game that only hurts those that follow the rules.

Aye Matey?

or movies. i rip all my blurays and discs partly to preserve from scratches but also bit rot. but mostly, to rid us of having to watch all those pirate warnings. 2 or 3 minutes of that no-can-skip crap before the main title?? i can almost rip a whole dvd faster than that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com