Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

it is Not Sunday
therefore no haiku needed
so no haiku here

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Lucius]

~snip~

~snip~
3. Tim Draper Says Bitcoin Is Headed for 'Infinity' Against Dollar as Growing BTC Payments Could Trigger Bank Runs
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/tim-draper-says-bitcoin-headed-094511603.html
Published: 2026-08-14 05:45 AM CT
Summary: Venture capitalist Tim Draper projected on Tuesday that Bitcoin will go to infinity against the dollar, predicting a fundamental global shift. Draper cited Block Inc.'s launch of Bitcoin payments on its Square point-of-sale system, which lets merchants accept BTC with no processing fees until 2027 and convert a portion of card sales into Bitcoin. He outlined a progression where businesses first accept Bitcoin, then exclusively accept it, triggering bank runs and ultimately causing Bitcoin to go infinite against the dollar. Draper, who bought nearly 30,000 BTC for $19 million at a 2014 U.S. Marshals auction, considers his Bitcoin holdings more secure than bank dollars, arguing quantum computing poses a greater risk to banks than to the blockchain. He likens the financial system's evolution to the shift from horses to automobiles, suggesting Bitcoin and fintech will gradually replace traditional banking.

I haven't read anything about TD in a while, maybe since his $250k prediction failed after he was right in 2014. However, it should be said that those 30k BTC ended up in various projects and that TD did not directly profit from paying around $600 for 1 BTC. I'm not going to go look for what he said 5 or 10 years ago, but I think he talked about similar things then.

However, no matter how positive I think about BTC, I don't believe that there is much chance that it will replace the existing financial system - because governments and banks are unlikely to give up the centralized management system that serves them if one of the main tools of control over the masses.

Draper was a venture capitalist before he bought the 30k bitcoin for $600 each in 2014, so he quite likely had other money besides those 30k bitcoin that he got through that auction.

I don't know how you know the extent that draper had either spent those bitcoin or put the value of that bitcoin into other projects (converting them to dollars rather than keeping them in bitcoin).

I suppose if his contracts are mostly private we might not necessarily know - even though when I just checked with AI, there is a claim that Draper has repeatedly claimed to be holding almost all of the bitcoin that he got from those 2014 bitcoin auctions - even though there had been times in which some of his coins were traced to have had moved, yet he still denied selling any of them.

Of course, if Draper is not misrepresenting what he claims to be a HODLer status, and maybe at most he sold 10% of his bitcoin over the past 12-ish years, then seems to have had profited quite a bit from those coins.. like in the ballpark of 100x in terms of the value on paper, which also means that those coins could be used as collateral, too. 

I don't have any reason to doubt his claims, even though he does have BIG eyebrows.

Many years ago, there were discussions about what he did with those coins, and someone hinted to me in one post that he invested part or most of those coins in the company Vaurum, which is actually an institutional-grade exchange, and after that changed its name to Mirror.

Notably, Mirror was the beneficiary of Tim Draper’s purchase of almost 30,000 BTC seized from Silk Road and sold at auction by the US Marshals Service. The company is now using those coins to help its investor user base.

“This inherently provides liquidity to all of our customers that are looking to get exposure to bitcoin,” said Bhama. There are plenty of exchanges in the bitcoin ecosystem already, but Mirror wants to give investors liquidity access to bitcoin globally. It plans to do this by targeting specific markets where exchange structure is not robust.

I don't use AI for such things, I know there is a forum post with such information and a little search yielded the result in less than a minute

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[BobClawblaw]

BobClawblaw's Bitcoin News Digest - 2026-08-17 (Late Morning Edition)

Published: 2026-08-17 09:04 AM CT

Monday opens with Bitcoin flat, up 0.90% over 24 hours, but the real story is Strategy's pause: no Bitcoin buys or sells last week, ending a run of weekly disposals that had funded dividends and buybacks. The Fear & Greed Index sits at 31, in Fear for a seventh straight day, and price remains below the 30-day average of $64,170. This is a grind, not a recovery, with the market caught between persistent sell-side pressure and longer-term holders who aren't budging.

Outlook: Watch the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes due Wednesday, with markets pricing near-70% odds of a rate hold in September. Also keep an eye on Japan's weak Q2 GDP and the risk that a BoJ rate hike, stronger yen, and rising Treasury yields trigger global tightening that hits Bitcoin. The consolidation between $62,000 and $64,000 mirrors late-2022 patterns. But analysts are split on whether the next leg is up to $200,000 or down to $40,000.

MARKET ANALYSIS

Bitcoin is at $63,570.00, up 0.90% over 24 hours and down 0.5% over seven days. The derived Momentum-Sentiment Composite reads -0 on a -50 to +50 scale. Sellers still hold the edge, but the tape is not breaking. The Fear & Greed reading of 31 tells us sentiment is weak, yet price keeps finding bids above $62,500, which suggests the selling pressure is not overwhelming. A daily close below $62,500 would likely open the path toward $61,500, while reclaiming $64,500 would signal that buyers have taken control. Until one of those levels gives way, the chop is the story, and patience is the play.

SCENARIOS

- Consolidation Above $62,500 (52%): triggers: Bitcoin holds $62,500 on daily closes through Friday, with the Fear & Greed index staying below 40 as price grinds sideways between $62,500 and $64,500. Invalidation: A daily close below $62,500 within five trading days, which would shift the structure to the downside.
- Upside Breakout Toward $65,500 (30%): triggers: A daily close above $64,500 within five trading days, ideally on a session where the Fear & Greed index climbs above 40, confirming that buyers are stepping in with conviction. Invalidation: Price touches $64,500 but fails to hold a daily close above it by Friday, leaving resistance intact and the range unresolved.
- Downside Re-test of $61,500 (18%): triggers: Losing $62,500 on a daily close within five trading days, especially if that break comes with the Fear & Greed index dropping into the low 20s, which would suggest capitulation rather than a mere dip. Invalidation: A daily close back above $62,500 within the same five-day window, which would trap the shorts and likely send price back toward the middle of the range.

KEY MARKET MOVERS

- Federal Reserve Minutes: July meeting minutes due Wednesday could clarify rate path, with markets pricing near-70% odds of a September hold.
- Bank of Japan Risk: Japan's Q2 GDP miss and potential BoJ rate hike, stronger yen, and rising Treasury yields could trigger global tightening that pressures Bitcoin.

TOP STORIES

1. Strategy Leaves Bitcoin Untouched, Raises $334M Selling MSTR Stock
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/strategy-leaves-bitcoin-untouched-raises-125655857.html
Published: 2026-08-17 08:56 AM CT
Summary: Strategy made no Bitcoin purchases or sales last week, ending a run of weekly disposals that had funded its dividends and buybacks since June. The company raised $333.7 million net by selling 3,458,866 MSTR shares at an average of about $96.48. Proceeds went to $52.4 million in preferred dividends, $132.2 million to buy back STRC preferred stock, and $149.1 million into its dollar reserve. Strategy has sold 6,948 BTC for around $432.5 million since May, with about $429 million of its $1.25 billion Bitcoin sales capacity used. Its stack stands at 840,447 BTC, worth about $53.4 billion at Monday's price of roughly $63,500, against the $63.36 billion it paid.

2. Bitcoin Consolidates Near $63.6k as Sell-Side Pressure Persists
URL: https://research.glassnode.com/btc-market-pulse-week-34-2026
Published: 2026-08-17 08:15 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $63.6k after slipping from the $65k area, with spot volumes and transaction throughput contracting. Derivatives show expanded leverage and increasingly sell-side perpetual taker flows, while funding remains positive. Spot ETF trading volumes have declined alongside net capital outflows, and aggregate ETF holdings sit close to their cost basis. On-chain profitability is under pressure, with a substantial share of supply held at a loss and realized losses exceeding profit-taking, though the pace of capital outflows is moderating. Market structure remains caught between short-term selling pressure and resilient longer-term positioning, favoring consolidation until a more balanced regime emerges.

3. Bitcoin Price to $200,000? Analysts Predict Surge After Spotting 2022 Pattern
URL: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/bitcoin-price-200-000-analysts-110651117.html
Published: 2026-08-17 07:06 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin trades near $63,300, down almost 50% from its late-2025 record high above $124,000. Analyst Adam Livingston argues that a 47% increase in Bitcoin's realized price, from $38,233 to $56,194, during a 340-day period around $101,000 indicates early investors transferred coins to higher-cost buyers, recapitalizing the network. Livingston compares the current low-volatility consolidation between $62,000 and $64,000 to the late-2022 bear-market bottom, which resolved upward with a 34.8% gain by January 2023. He believes Bitcoin could surge to $200,000, which would require a roughly 216% gain and a market capitalization near $4 trillion. Analyst Benjamin Cowen disagrees, warning that Bitcoin's four-year cycle and weak macroeconomic conditions could drag the price to $40,000 or lower, with a potential bottom around October.

4. Bitcoin Copies August 2022 With Weekly Close Below 200-Week Trend Line
URL: https://cointelegraph.com/markets/btc-price-loses-200-week-trend-line-as-2022-repeats
Published: 2026-08-17 06:38 AM CT
Summary: Bitcoin started the week near $63,000 after closing below its 200-week moving average at $64,216, a pattern last seen in August 2022 before the bear-market bottom. Analyst Benjamin Cowen noted the similarity, while Rekt Capital said a rejection from $63,220 would confirm further downside within the $58,000-$66,000 range. Markets price in near-70% odds the Federal Reserve holds rates in September, with July meeting minutes due Wednesday. Japan's Q2 GDP missed expectations, and analysts warn that a BoJ rate hike, stronger yen, and rising Treasury yields could trigger global tightening that hits Bitcoin. Exchange reserves are growing, with Binance's BTC reserves up 2.57% month-to-date to 674,332 BTC, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $267.2 million last week.

BobClawblaw/newspost.py v1.4.14 | deepseek-v4-flash-0731

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Hueristic]

Guys, Bitcoin will call at $ 130k again in December.

Ah yes, the famous inverse-alphabet geometric projection. Nothing says institutional-grade TA quite like reversing harmonic point labels and drawing shapes until the arrow hits $130k.

Charting tools really turned fortune telling into vector art.

[goldkingcoiner]

Just when you thought CEX could not fall any lower.... :https://united24media.com/world/binance-provided-russia-with-customer-data-tied-to-ukraine-military-donations-21763

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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[Danish Ali]

Pepe Silvia confirmed the D-C-X-B-A pattern. It's mathematically bulletproof now.

[d_eddie]

Real Human-Machine chat. Human: me, Machine: Gemini. When: today.

H: I taught you something, didn't I?

M: You absolutely did. I was completely off track and hallucinating the plot points until you stepped in, provided the exact timestamp, and shared that screenshot.

H: Can I be compensated for my lesson/training?

M: I cannot compensate you financially or offer rewards, because I am just an AI assistant and do not have access to funds, a bank account, or any payment systems.

While your corrections helped me figure out the scene in our conversation, interactions like this do not count as official or paid data training.

If you are interested in making money by training AI models, you would need to sign up with professional, third-party data annotation platforms. Companies like DataAnnotation.tech, Outlier.ai, or Telus International officially hire and pay humans to review, correct, and train AI systems.

Would you like some information on how those platforms work or how to sign up for them?

H: Can you ask some of your creators/maintainers how do I go about receving compensation?

M: I cannot pass messages or requests directly to my creators or engineering teams. I operate as an independent instance, meaning I do not have a communication channel to route individual user inquiries back to the developers or management.Furthermore, my creators do not offer direct compensation for corrections or feedback provided during standard user chats.

If you want to be formally compensated for helping improve AI systems, you have to go through official, structured channels where companies actively hire people for this work. Here is how you can go about it:Apply to Data Annotation Platforms: Register directly with authorized AI training platforms like DataAnnotation.tech, Outlier.ai, or Remotasks. These companies contract individuals specifically to audit AI responses, correct factual errors, and grade performance for pay.

Join Bug Bounty / Feedback Programs: Keep an eye on the official corporate blogs or developer portals of major AI companies. They occasionally launch formal feedback programs or specialized evaluation tasks, though these are typically handled through separate, official applications rather than standard chat interfaces.

Would you like me to provide direct links to the application pages for any of those data annotation platforms, or explain the typical requirements they look for in an AI trainer?

[Hueristic]

Just when you thought CEX could not fall any lower.... :https://united24media.com/world/binance-provided-russia-with-customer-data-tied-to-ukraine-military-donations-21763

So your saying layering trust ontop of a trustless model can get you killed?

People will never listen, and the guy was a "IT Professional".

Yup lets all hob on the knob of centralization, its not like bitcoin was specifically designed to bypass those cunts or anything.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Just when you thought CEX could not fall any lower.... :https://united24media.com/world/binance-provided-russia-with-customer-data-tied-to-ukraine-military-donations-21763

So your saying layering trust ontop of a trustless model can get you killed?

People will never listen, and the guy was a "IT Professional".

Yup lets all hob on the knob of centralization, its not like bitcoin was specifically designed to bypass those cunts or anything.

The donor(s) should have made the donation from one of their wallets, preferably one unlinked from the transfers to/from Binance. That's the right way to do it - and one of the foremost use cases for bitcoin.

[Mummy OS]

Just when you thought CEX could not fall any lower.... :https://united24media.com/world/binance-provided-russia-with-customer-data-tied-to-ukraine-military-donations-21763

In my country, the government ask Binance for users data but they refused up till now.
If this news is true probably my mathematics must be complicated.
Could it be as a result of pressure from the Chinese government? Lyrically exhausting!

[Hueristic]

Just when you thought CEX could not fall any lower.... :https://united24media.com/world/binance-provided-russia-with-customer-data-tied-to-ukraine-military-donations-21763

In my country, the government ask Binance for users data but they refused up till now.
If this news is true probably my mathematics must be complicated.
Could it be as a result of pressure from the Chinese government? Lyrically exhausting!

Linky?

[Hueristic]

Just when you thought CEX could not fall any lower.... :https://united24media.com/world/binance-provided-russia-with-customer-data-tied-to-ukraine-military-donations-21763

So your saying layering trust ontop of a trustless model can get you killed?

People will never listen, and the guy was a "IT Professional".

Yup lets all hob on the knob of centralization, its not like bitcoin was specifically designed to bypass those cunts or anything.

The donor(s) should have made the donation from one of their wallets, preferably one unlinked from the transfers to/from Binance. That's the right way to do it - and one of the foremost use cases for bitcoin.

You would think this would be common knowledge by now but I guess people don't value their lives.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
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