Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[keithers]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

seems like more of Orca Whales lately, not too many killer whales, and definitely no blue whales out of the wood works yet...

[oda.krell]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You think these are whales??  
Remember, remember, the 25th of.. June. >BTC90,000 traded in <4 hours.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.19200

Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again.

Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to  see that kind of volume again eventually.

[Cassius]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You think these are whales??  
Remember, remember, the 25th of.. June. >BTC90,000 traded in <4 hours.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.19200

Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again.

Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to  see that kind of volume again eventually.

Stamp?
More exchanges and people buy off-exchange now. So what's a new healthy volume?

[oda.krell]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You think these are whales??  
Remember, remember, the 25th of.. June. >BTC90,000 traded in <4 hours.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.19200

Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again.

Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to  see that kind of volume again eventually.

Stamp?
More exchanges and people buy off-exchange now. So what's a new healthy volume?

One of the most important questions right now. I'm fiddling around with some crude methods to find a way to relate volume (change) and price (change), but it's too  early to really do something with it.

Intuition says we should see easily twice our volume now as we leave the bear market behind... I'd say, a month where each day is 10k volume, and some see 20k, would be very bullish. (bitstamp volume alone in this example)

[Essex343]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You think these are whales??  
Remember, remember, the 25th of.. June. >BTC90,000 traded in <4 hours.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.19200

Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again.

Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to  see that kind of volume again eventually.

Stamp?
More exchanges and people buy off-exchange now. So what's a new healthy volume?

people keep saying this, but how do you know? besides say, secondmarket, isn't it all anecdotal? why is everyone so sure that so much is being bought/sold off the exchanges? i am just not sure i believe it.

[JorgeStolfi]

Wow. Looks like Jorge was right all along... we went up without a sufficient cause, hence we're now going down again. Probably all the way to 300.

I see the sarcasm...  but actually I think that there was a cause for the rally.

Only my feeling is that the cause was limited to the Chinese market; and it was not a general uplifting of the mood of all Chinese (or non-Chinese) traders, but rather something that convinced a subset of the Chinese traders to buy.  Perhaps some inside information, something posted on some Chinese forum, some news or exchange policy adjustments that benefitted only a few traders, some rumor that only a few traders took seriously, etc. 

So I would think that the rise will be limited, although I would rather not guess what the limit will be, nor whether the rise will be permanent or temporary.

I do not think that the rally is due to "increased adoption" outside China (the "West").  All those stores that accept bitcoin via BitPay are attractive only to people who already own bitcoins.  I do not see how they could create increased demand for bitcoin at the exchanges; they will only convince some holders to sell a few of their bitcoins there (through Bitpay).

I can't see any sign of increased adoption in the plots of Transactions Per Day and Total Transaction Output Per Day on blockchain.info.  In fact, since there are no fees (yet) for bitcoin transactions, probably more than 90% of that blockchain volume is fake anyway.   

[JimboToronto]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You call those whales?

It's been months since we've seen a good whale fight.

[Arghhh]

I think Bitstamp's recent AML and KYC measures led to rumors of insolvency.
Remember that MtGox implemented AML and KYC near the end of its lifespan.
Whether this is true or not is up for debate, but the result is loss of volume.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26apno/bitstamp_will_not_process_withdrawal_unless_you/
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2472ti/dont_hate_bitstamp_for_the_ridiculous_money/
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26bzjm/bitstamp_aml_questionnaire_demands_screenshot/

I tried to register on Bitstamp a few month ago, and it asked me to scan my passport and driver's license for verification.
Sending my ID information to an Eastern European company? Fuck that, I'm staying on BTC-e.
This restriction will hinder participation of future BTC users on Bitstamp.

Rumors notwithstanding, I don't think Bitstamp is a reliable indicator of BTC volume anymore.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Benjig]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You call those whales?

It's been months since we've seen a good whale fight.

Hehe yes i remember months ago seeing a whale put a buy wall of 500 btcs and dissapear in seconds to a bear one .

[derpinheimer]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You think these are whales??  
Remember, remember, the 25th of.. June. >BTC90,000 traded in <4 hours.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.19200

Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again.

Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to  see that kind of volume again eventually.

I know, but its still some amazing volume....

90k @ ~$110 ~= $10mUSD in 4 hours

30 day average bstamp value is BTC10,000 *~475 = 4.75m in a day

[Cassius]

Whales making walls, whales breaking walls. I'm out of words!

You think these are whales??  
Remember, remember, the 25th of.. June. >BTC90,000 traded in <4 hours.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.19200

Price was much lower then, so raw coin value will maybe never be this high again.

Still, we're seeing 10k coin volume on a good day right now, but in early '14 we saw 70k on the highest volume day. I'd like to  see that kind of volume again eventually.

Stamp?
More exchanges and people buy off-exchange now. So what's a new healthy volume?

people keep saying this, but how do you know? besides say, secondmarket, isn't it all anecdotal? why is everyone so sure that so much is being bought/sold off the exchanges? i am just not sure i believe it.

Anecdotal (but reliable) evidence of people buying off-exchange. Like people who know funds that have contracts with miners.
For proof of more exchanges than there used to be (1: Gox), see all the new exchanges. (Not just fiat, either - remember a small proportion of bitcoin is going into alts.)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Wow. Looks like Jorge was right all along... we went up without a sufficient cause, hence we're now going down again. Probably all the way to 300.

I see the sarcasm...   but actually I think that there was a cause for the rally.

Only my feeling is that the cause was limited to the Chinese market; and it was not a general uplifting of the mood of all Chinese (or non-Chinese) traders, but rather something that convinced a subset of the Chinese traders to buy.  Perhaps some inside information, something posted on some Chinese forum, some news or exchange policy adjustments that benefitted only a few traders, some rumor that only a few traders took seriously, etc.  

So I would think that the rise will be limited, although I would rather not guess what the limit will be, nor whether the rise will be permanent or temporary.

I do not think that the rally is due to "increased adoption" outside China (the "West").  All those stores that accept bitcoin via BitPay are attractive only to people who already own bitcoins.  I do not see how they could create increased demand for bitcoin at the exchanges; they will only convince some holders to sell a few of their bitcoins there (through Bitpay).

I can't see any sign of increased adoption in the plots of Transactions Per Day and Total Transaction Output Per Day on blockchain.info.  In fact, since there are no fees (yet) for bitcoin transactions, probably more than 90% of that blockchain volume is fake anyway.    

Would have been interesting to know how you would have felt if you would have visited, for example, the Amsterdam Bitcoin conference...

Seeing all those alpha type corporate guys networking and powertalking to each was a) somewhat disillusioning (Bitcoin idealism is dead, sorry guys) and b) made me realize that Bitcoin isn't going to go away anytime soon, now that big money got its greedy paws on it.

[oda.krell]

Rumors notwithstanding, I don't think Bitstamp is a reliable indicator of BTC volume anymore.

But they are, whether you like the place or not.



Note that Bitfinex volume includes orders routed to stamp. In sheer volume, btc-e is probably the second biggest exchange.


Add them up if you want (I know I do, though I'm never quite sure how to account for the duplicated volume between finex and stamp in my calculations), but if it's a one-stop evaluation of today's USD volume, stamp is still the place to get that.

[Peter R]

Seeing all those alpha type corporate guys networking and powertalking to each was a) somewhat disillusioning (Bitcoin idealism is dead, sorry guys) and b) made me realize that Bitcoin isn't going to go away anytime soon, now that big money got its greedy paws on it.

Oda, could you expand on what you mean by "bitcoin idealism is dead"?  I had dinner last night with a colleague who attended the Amsterdam Conference and he seemed quite excited by the opportunities that are rapidly emerging.

But I've never understood what "idealism" even means in the context of bitcoin.  Bitcoin is useful.  People will therefore use it to advance their agendas.  And there are all sorts of different people with all sorts of agendas in this world.  Greater interest in bitcoin from a broader swath of the population tells me that bitcoin is evolving as it should.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

Seeing all those alpha type corporate guys networking and powertalking to each was a) somewhat disillusioning (Bitcoin idealism is dead, sorry guys) and b) made me realize that Bitcoin isn't going to go away anytime soon, now that big money got its greedy paws on it.

Oda, could you expand on what you mean by "bitcoin idealism is dead"?  I had dinner last night with a colleague who attended the Amsterdam Conference and he seemed quite excited by the opportunities that are rapidly emerging.

But I've never understood what "idealism" even means in the context of bitcoin.  Bitcoin is useful.  People will therefore use it to advance their agendas.  And there are all sorts of different people with all sorts of agendas in this world.  Greater interest in bitcoin from a broader swath of the population tells me that bitcoin is evolving as it should.  

I mean that those who have a disproportionally large influence on Bitcoin (be it by their elevated position in the ecosystem for reasons of trust, be it by the size of their dick wallet) will have to make choices balancing between the "Bitcoin values" that got many of us excited about Bitcoin in the first place (free flow of property, combined with anonymity, of sorts, in summary: the democratization of money) and making Bitcoin useful for businesses, as well as palatable to politics, and they will, by and large, prioritize the the latter over the former.

[JorgeStolfi]

[ ... ]

Note that Bitfinex volume includes orders routed to stamp. In sheer volume, btc-e is probably the second biggest exchange.

That table omits lakeBTC, which is Shanghai-based but trades in USD, and last time I checked had about as much volume as Bitstamp, BTC-e and Bitfinex.