JimboToronto
Legendary
 Online
Activity: 2800
Merit: 2041
You're never too old to be young.
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May 21, 2014, 05:31:57 PM |
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Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further. |
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Adrian-x
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Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
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May 21, 2014, 05:51:38 PM |
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Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
A couple of houses just sold for BTC, (converted to fiat for the owners at market) I've seen large purchase through pay merchants like BitPay bring downward pressure on price as those coins work through the dark pools. I'm still confused, I don't think the trigger on the next bull run has been pulled. I think the bull run will be triggered by a redistribution of new coins evident in a rapid increase in difficult. |
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Cassius
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Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
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May 21, 2014, 06:00:33 PM |
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I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.
PQ=MV, M=k*n^2, n~r*exp(t)+fCheapness is near historical maxima. That's all you really need to know, if you think BTC is technically and politically evolvable to serve as, e.g. SDRs, with probability > 0.001%. I had intended to be levering up about now, but in the event I decided to keep it down to about 80%, so that I can short stock markets (and bull-ride the faster-cycling bubble waves on MRO, with the small amount suited to its embryonic liquidity state) while we wait for the party to start rocking. At the dogleg I will lever up, if I'm functioning. Less than 80% sacrifices too much, takes too much risk, for my present taste. I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger. But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language. (Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?) |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
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Activity: 1050
Merit: 1000
1PwXK9TpmmaaqaZz2eqcLkPU2C1Fcva39G
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May 21, 2014, 06:00:39 PM |
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ChrisML
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May 21, 2014, 06:09:33 PM |
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Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further. This. I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there. |
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Walsoraj
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May 21, 2014, 06:11:02 PM |
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6 billion market cap + 11 million bid sum on Stamp = lol.
Stop over complicating things.
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oda.krell
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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May 21, 2014, 06:11:11 PM |
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Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further. This. I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there. Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all. |
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derpinheimer
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Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
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May 21, 2014, 06:25:55 PM |
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I sure hope the next jump is coming soon; looks like it could be in the next hour or so
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Spaceman_Spiff
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Activity: 1638
Merit: 1000
₪``Campaign Manager´´₪
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May 21, 2014, 06:27:31 PM |
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Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further. This. I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there. Yeah, looks like it wants to go to $550 for now. |
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ErisDiscordia
Legendary
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Activity: 1106
Merit: 1060
Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
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May 21, 2014, 06:34:31 PM |
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wasserman99
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May 21, 2014, 06:39:23 PM |
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Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further. This. I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there. Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all. I'm still kind of thinkin it was a pump and dump. But that doesnt mean we cant get one more leg up! A nice dip from 500 could have been a nice bull flag though and a nice place to get a leveraged long in! |
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Cassius
Legendary
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Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
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May 21, 2014, 06:48:28 PM |
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ShameOnYou
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May 21, 2014, 06:51:54 PM |
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Not a pump and dump. Its a dump and pump!!! Dont get caught in the bear trap yall, it aint good for your health.  |
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aminorex
Legendary
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Activity: 1596
Merit: 1029
Sine secretum non libertas
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May 21, 2014, 06:52:08 PM |
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I've no doubt that impressive growth is possible. But I'm slightly cautious of equating speculators' with regular punters' money. It could easily be an order of magnitude bigger.
But there's no arguing with people who use that kind of language.
(Perhaps you could clarify the terms - I assume M = market cap, n = number of adopters, k is your constant?)
Yes. BTC speculation to date has been limited to the extreme margins of motivated, informed speculators with massive risk tolerance and a visionary posture. That's a pretty rarefied atmosphere. Historically, the major enabling factors for expansion have been expansions in the carrying capacity of the channel for fiat inflows. I take it as a given that one or more major capital markets will offer a public liquidity vehicle for custodial BTC in the next 6 to 12 months, so I think it's pretty safe to say that 18 months would be an extreme upper bound for the next bubble onset, which is likely to be a doozy -- a word which historically referred to the Deusenberg motorcar. I have said these things many times, as have many others, I am sure, but when someone expresses a perplexity, and these points seem helpful to provide an accurate form of clarity, I will supply a reminder. Accurate conviction on points of minority knowledge is a wonderful thing. Since I am fully charged for the time-being, I have every reason to propagate this boon where possible. You can bin me with the uberbulls a la Risto. I don't mind at all. |
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kireinaha
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May 21, 2014, 06:52:35 PM |
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Even the most vocal haters are coming around and embracing bitcoin. Yup, this next rally is going to be epic. |
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molecular
Donator
Legendary
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Activity: 2744
Merit: 1016
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May 21, 2014, 06:53:53 PM |
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ChrisML
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May 21, 2014, 06:54:45 PM |
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Seems we have flattened here at 490-495, kinda thought we might dip and make a nice flag. Dont really know what to think. Any thoughts on where were going from here? (besides the proverbial moon)
Just catching our breath after a big day. I'm surprised it didn't slip further. This. I thought we would settle down at +-$475 before going into a rally in a few days. It's hodling pretty nice up there. Same though here. ~470 is something I really expected (and still could happen). Back to 450, without bouncing up, and I'd start worrying that it was a pump&dump after all. I'm still kind of thinkin it was a pump and dump. But that doesnt mean we cant get one more leg up! A nice dip from 500 could have been a nice bull flag though and a nice place to get a leveraged long in! A pump and dump would mean it would go rocket through $500 and end up at $460,-. It did not. |
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ShameOnYou
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May 21, 2014, 06:56:02 PM |
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Even the most vocal haters are coming around and embracing bitcoin. Yup, this next rally is going to be epic. So bottom is in? epic rally from here? Ive been telling everyone these have just been bear traps but that is only because i am a perma bull. |
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