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Question: 1/17 Closing Price:
<$33,000 - 4 (5.3%)
$33,000-$34,000 - 1 (1.3%)
$34,000-$35,000 - 2 (2.6%)
$35,000-$36,000 - 1 (1.3%)
$36,000-$37,000 - 3 (3.9%)
$37,000-$38,000 - 7 (9.2%)
$38,000-$39,000 - 4 (5.3%)
$39,000-$40,000 - 9 (11.8%)
$40,000-$41,000 - 8 (10.5%)
$41,000-$42,000 - 6 (7.9%)
$42,000-$43,000 - 4 (5.3%)
>$43,000 - 27 (35.5%)
Total Voters: 76

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25066675 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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May 21, 2014, 12:00:41 PM


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JimboToronto
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May 21, 2014, 12:45:53 PM

all the usual trolls out on the prowl. TTM & CCMFs.

It's strange that you consider TTM and CCMF to be trollish.

When I think of trolls, I think of Karhu, "confirmed" and "URGENT... BTC will fail".

To each his own, I suppose.
Sorry for the horrible grammar on my part.
The trolls are Fonzie and mah, and sometimes wally, the list is endless. Perhaps I should have spaced the CCMFs and TTM on a different line far away from the other statement. My point was in lieu of all the recent sky is falling naysayers↑↑↑, it seems as if it were time to board a train or something like it.  Wink

Thanks for the clarification. Sorry I misinterpreted your post.

There are trolls and then there are trolls. Some are truly humorous like ElectricMucus or occasionally Jaroslaw/Walsoraj, while others like Mat, Mah, Fonzie or Igorr are just tiresome and annoying.

I sometimes wonder if some people consider me a troll for posting silly bear pictures or referring to those who take traditional TA far too seriously as "cultists". Since they stopped using colored ignore buttons, it's hard to tell.  Smiley
_______

P.S. How could I have failed to mention Proudhon the most elegant and subtle of all the trolls?
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May 21, 2014, 12:48:19 PM

We can not have 10% rise each day at this stage of the bubble cycle. It's too fast. I suspect it will be hovering around 500 for a few days. After a few weeks, we can accelerate.

When we have a doubling of price in 8 hours, be cautious.
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May 21, 2014, 01:00:39 PM


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ShroomsKit
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May 21, 2014, 01:02:45 PM

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

You met someone who could predict the future? Can i have his number please?
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May 21, 2014, 01:15:25 PM

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

You met someone who could predict the future? Can i have his number please?

No I met someone who knows how to draw all the pretty lines that people draw around here and his lines said don't buy yet. He may not know for sure but he did predict the future and save me 1000's.
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May 21, 2014, 01:41:28 PM

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

Just wait until someone tells you to buy. If it goes sour, blame him. If nobody shows up, and you loose, blame all the rest. It's brilliant, someone to blame in all cases.



Just get in. You need nerves of steel to wait longer.
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May 21, 2014, 01:51:42 PM

a pause for breath - or out of fiat?
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May 21, 2014, 01:57:44 PM

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

You met someone who could predict the future? Can i have his number please?

No I met someone who knows how to draw all the pretty lines that people draw around here and his lines said don't buy yet. He may not know for sure but he did predict the future and save me 1000's.

You seriously think anybody here can predict the future by drawing lines? Come on. How many millions does that guy make per month? He must be filthy rich right?
You/he got lucky. That's all.
Never take investment advice from anyone here. There is not one person here who knows where Bitcoin will go tomorrow let alone in a few months from now. 90% or probably more of these people drawing lines lose money. They just won't tell you of course. Bitcoin doesn't follow lines. It's that simple.
Ask any of these people who draw lines how many millions it made them. They will come up with tons of excuses but never that drawing lines simply doesn't work.
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May 21, 2014, 02:00:40 PM


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simtal
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May 21, 2014, 02:01:06 PM

Does anyone think that now is a good idea to buy? Ive waited for a few months like I was told and now this has reverse?

You met someone who could predict the future? Can i have his number please?

No I met someone who knows how to draw all the pretty lines that people draw around here and his lines said don't buy yet. He may not know for sure but he did predict the future and save me 1000's.

You seriously think anybody here can predict the future by drawing lines? Come on. How many millions does that guy make per month? He must be filthy rich right?
You/he got lucky. That's all.
Never take investment advice from anyone here. There is not one person here who knows where Bitcoin will go tomorrow let alone in a few months from now. 90% or probably more of these people drawing lines lose money. They just won't tell you of course. Bitcoin doesn't follow lines. It's that simple.
Ask any of these people who draw lines how many millions it made them. They will come up with tons of excuses but never that drawing lines simply doesn't work.

No of course not I was doing the sarcasm. Im just saying you cant say always dont take advice off people (not here) because I took the advice and it saved me lots of money. This has bubbles all the time and so most people seemed to have known it was going to crash and then gox and China ruin it as well. People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.
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May 21, 2014, 02:08:45 PM

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0
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May 21, 2014, 02:19:55 PM

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

Never seen this, will research and read now.

Thanks
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May 21, 2014, 02:20:15 PM

there is clearly an urgent need for some dinosaurs



LOL

Thank you Sir. You saved the day !

There is definitely  a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the number of dinosaurs in this forum

Is that a Pimposaurus?
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May 21, 2014, 02:31:36 PM

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.
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May 21, 2014, 02:33:08 PM

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies
Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store that had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.
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May 21, 2014, 02:35:32 PM

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.
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May 21, 2014, 02:37:03 PM

Jorge retains some fantasy illusion that his posts affect the behavior of some marginal newbies
Rua Santa Ifigênia is the traditional "electronics street" of São Paulo, some 5-10 blocks with tiny to medium-sized shops selling from transistors to consumer electronics, with sidewalks lined with street merchant stalls selling all sorts of accessories, cartridges, software, etc.. A large part of it is contraband, pirated, or counterfeit (you can surely find a "legitimate" copy of Photoshop or Autocad there for a few bucks). Once in a while the police raids the place, confiscates a couple of tons of merchandise, gves out fines and maybe some arrests, just to justify their salaries; but that is all "priced in" as you might say.

Some 10-15 years ago a Ph.D. student of mine bought for her project a Sony camera that had a CD burner built-in and recorded images directly on small 3" CD-Rs.  (There was a short time window when that camera made sense, because flash memory cards had about the same capacity as those CD-Rs but were much more expensive.) She was running out of the original supply of CD-Rs, and could not find then in Campinas; so one day we happened to be in São Paulo we thought of checking at Sta. Ifigiênia.

When you buy anything in Brazil the store is supposed to give you a "fiscal note", an official serially numbered receipt, of which they keep a copy.  Those receipts are used by tax auditors to check whether the state sales tax is being paid.  Obviously street merchants and  stores selling contraband don't give no friggin' fiscal notes, especially for a small purchase like a box of blank CDs; but since we were paying with federal grant money we needed the fiscal notes, and moreover we had to pay with a check from the government account.  We had to walk the whole street, asking at half a dozen computer supply shops, until we found a store who had those 3" CD-Rs, accepted the check, and gave us a fiscal note.

While we were walking back, people started shouting "tax inspectors, tax inspectors" all over the place.  In ten minutes (no exaggeration) half the small shops in the entire street closed their doors, and all the sidewalk stalls had been hastily folded and thrown into vans that disappeared from view.   For, you see, they had spotted two odd-looking people entering random shops and asking to buy some trinket with a fiscal note -- what else could they be?

So: don't underestimate.


I would have used the example of shouting Fire in a crowded cinema - but you get the point across. Smiley
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May 21, 2014, 02:41:41 PM

People had very good arguments in decemeber why it would go down more so I wanted to see if anyone had the opposite argument for why it might go up.

Have you seen this?

Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

I am rather sceptical about this. Not because it's a bad model overall, but because I suspect the amount of fiat coming in does not correlate well to adoption. Namely, over-represented speculators must have vastly over-pumped the market, so it's hard to tell where we 'should' be at this point.

I'd be interested in seeing a better model, if there is one.

I don't have one (it's always easier to criticise someone else's than come up with your own work). I think it's a reasonable model. The catch is that adoption is ultimately about getting Joe Public on board. Right now, most of the people who own bitcoins are hodlers or speculators. My guess is that both of those categories will own a lot more bitcoins at any given time than JP who wants to buy stuff with them. What multiple more might give a clue as to how ahead of ourselves we are at the moment. It's hard to estimate, though: how much do you think the average person will keep in bitcoin on full adoption?
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May 21, 2014, 02:47:05 PM

What multiple more might give a clue as to how ahead of ourselves we are at the moment.

Going by SSs model, we are somewhat behind ourselves at the moment. Interesting times we live in.
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