Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[studio1one]

Its obviously a W bottom - will breakout soon

chart?  

the bounce up from the 550/551 level seems like a correction to me. looks like we might head down from here. what do you guys think?

If you are NOT trolling, you seem to be too short term, in your thinking/charting.

i am saying that the bounce = corrective in formation. this suggests that the dominant direction is down. it has nothing to do with short term/long term, but rather the formation of the waves.

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm

yes but you are on a 15 min chart

here is the same formation on a 2hr chart. the length of the candles will not change the characteristics of the formation. will it? i don't think so.

2 things jump out here

1. 15 min is too short to separate noise from trend, it just can't be done.

2. Your trend lines cut through candles and wicks all over the place anyway.

To get a seinsible view of the support and resistance of the run itself (ignoring previous support and resistance)

 you need to run a 4 hour chart



Furthermore to see how the correction is performing inline with the bull run you need to run fib retracements on it



and look at volume

nothing to me suggests that we will see any kind of real test of the run until about 640

but who knows really.

[Gimmelfarb]

2 things jump out here

1. 15 min is too short to separate noise from trend, it just can't be done.

2. Your trend lines cut through candles and wicks all over the place anyway.

To get a seinsible view of the support and resistance of the run itself (ignoring previous support and resistance)

 you need to run a 4 hour chart

[snip]

Furthermore to see how the correction is performing inline with the bull run you need to run fib retracements on it

[snip]

and look at volume

nothing to me suggests that we will see any kind of real test of the run until about 640

but who knows really.

on "noise from trend" i disagree. 15m is the lowest i will use that i consider to have acceptable noise/signal ratio. to each his own. the lines only cut through wicks to the extent that they are minor violations. precision is not the purpose -- to reiterate again, i am looking at the shape of the formation. i have fibs on my regular charts, i do not normally chart on wisdom, but we had tagged .786 before falling out of the wedge, which also contributed to my thinking that more down is coming.

like you said, who knows.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[studio1one]

on "noise from trend" i disagree. 15m is the lowest i will use that i consider to have acceptable noise/signal ratio. to each his own. the lines only cut through wicks to the extent that they are minor violations. precision is not the purpose -- to reiterate again, i am looking at the shape of the formation. i have fibs on my regular charts, i do not normally chart on wisdom, but we had tagged .786 before falling out of the wedge, which also contributed to my thinking that more down is coming.

like you said, who knows.

Yeah but you know...

there is strict moderate and lax when accepting the support and resistance of trend lines....

then there is just ignoring them entirely and drawing a shape.

[Gimmelfarb]

on "noise from trend" i disagree. 15m is the lowest i will use that i consider to have acceptable noise/signal ratio. to each his own. the lines only cut through wicks to the extent that they are minor violations. precision is not the purpose -- to reiterate again, i am looking at the shape of the formation. i have fibs on my regular charts, i do not normally chart on wisdom, but we had tagged .786 before falling out of the wedge, which also contributed to my thinking that more down is coming.

like you said, who knows.

Yeah but you know...

there is strict moderate and lax when accepting the support and resistance of trend lines....

then there is just ignoring them entirely and drawing a shape.

who is ignoring them entirely? it was just sloppily drawn. i find it difficult to see how one could deny that this is a wedge, and that the trend line was clearly broken to the downside.



it seems pretty clear to me looking at this that we retraced the high of 597. that doesnt look bullish to me.

[windjc]

on "noise from trend" i disagree. 15m is the lowest i will use that i consider to have acceptable noise/signal ratio. to each his own. the lines only cut through wicks to the extent that they are minor violations. precision is not the purpose -- to reiterate again, i am looking at the shape of the formation. i have fibs on my regular charts, i do not normally chart on wisdom, but we had tagged .786 before falling out of the wedge, which also contributed to my thinking that more down is coming.

like you said, who knows.

Yeah but you know...

there is strict moderate and lax when accepting the support and resistance of trend lines....

then there is just ignoring them entirely and drawing a shape.

I think both of you have valid arguments. There is a case to be made for us going down to 520-550. There is a case to be made for us seeing 600+ before 560.

I am split in the middle here. I will probably buy back more at 520-550 or 600+.

I do think we are getting pretty heavy at this current top. We look like we will probably close the daily candle back under the upper bollinger band, which often means more downside first.

But there is no clear picture, only what people want to see.

[dnaleor]

Pump and dump.

how many times do you post that? Every hour?
You will be the first one I put on ignore...

[RandomPedestrianN9]

Pump and dump.

how many times do you post that? Every hour?
You will be the first one I put on ignore...

repeat untill 0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arghhh]

Looks like the next 12-48 hours will test this rally's local support line.



If that support fails, then the next stop is the 2013 support.

[frienemy]

Hey guys,

we have the 3d EMA crossing at last. Celebrate!

[byronbb]

Wow.

4 pages of Jorge discussions. Amazing, simply fucking amazing.

Is there a way to ignore posts with related words? Like the word "Jorge" for example.

Would be great.

[bigdave]

Just a gut feeling, but I think we're going to revisit the 550-560 range here soon...

[Gimmelfarb]

so i'm wondering. it seems many are expecting the next bubble rally to take off shortly... next couple weeks or months. and i am not saying that it'll happen or it won't. but i wonder, for those of you that expect this to come soon... what kind of price movement would dissuade you? what support level, or support trend line, would it take for you to revise your prediction, if broken?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

so i'm wondering. it seems many are expecting the next bubble rally to take off shortly... next couple weeks or months. and i am not saying that it'll happen or it won't. but i wonder, for those of you that expect this to come soon... what kind of price movement would dissuade you? what support level, or support trend line, would it take for you to revise your prediction, if broken?

0 or lower

[wachtwoord]

so i'm wondering. it seems many are expecting the next bubble rally to take off shortly... next couple weeks or months. and i am not saying that it'll happen or it won't. but i wonder, for those of you that expect this to come soon... what kind of price movement would dissuade you? what support level, or support trend line, would it take for you to revise your prediction, if broken?

0 or lower

That was exactly what I thought. At zero can i have dibs?

[JorgeStolfi]

1. Since the last post BY @JorgeStolfi some six hours and four pages ago,  there may have been 30 posts ABOUT @JorgeStolfi.  I am flattered and moved.  Sorry @fonzie, but as the poet wrote

  Cesse tudo o que a antiga Musa canta
  Que outro valor mais alto se alevanta 

2. Thanks again for the offer, but I would rather not have any bitcoins, and I do not intend to help distributing bitcoins to anyone, my students or not.  I am sure you will find charities or other worthy projects that will make much better use of the money.

3. I got to 65k tweets before knowing about bitcoin; mostly on politics, a bit of thechnology, humor, etc.  I was looking forward to commemorate my 65535th tweet, but then Twitter switched to the approximate "65K" count format.  Darn. But I was bored of politics anyway and decided to take a long twitter vacation.  By the way, it was through Twitter (specifically @falkvinge's tweets) that I first learned of bitcoin.  Since December I have been mostly wasting the stolen taxpayer's money here instead, using twitter only once in a while to warn people about bitcoin.

4. Why do people assume that I "still do not understand" bitcoin?  In my view, it is the shrillest bitcoin enthusiasts who do not understand much about it and how the world works.  Like those who still claim that bitcoin will let people evade taxes and buy illegal things, or that bitcoin is a safer investment than plain cash, or that China is irrelevant, or that the volume in the blockchain shows that people are using bitcoin --- or that the right technology, by itself, can save people from corrupt politicians and greedy bankers.

[GreekGeek]

so i'm wondering. it seems many are expecting the next bubble rally to take off shortly... next couple weeks or months. and i am not saying that it'll happen or it won't. but i wonder, for those of you that expect this to come soon... what kind of price movement would dissuade you? what support level, or support trend line, would it take for you to revise your prediction, if broken?

According to my TA the 2013-2014 uptrend will be broken if we get to ~450 in 1-2 days
actually this 7-day rally started when the price was about to cross (but didn't) my trendline (430 @ 20th May)

[williamj2543]

I really want the bitcoin price to skyrocket. I am saving up for a triple monitor setup and right now i have ~0.23 BTC, and I want the price to be at LEAST 1000$ when I cash out, until then, I won't be cashing out, and I will be left with less money to spend...