Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Argwai96]

I'm also sad that TERA is gone.

TERA is a coward and a manic/depressant.

Seriously, dude? What's with the ad hominem? Not many good analysts on this forum, and she made some good calls if I remember correctly. She attack you personally or something?

[Dump3er]

Hey dudes. What's going on? I was very busy with my dumping classes, topic "How to dump the shit out of falling triangles", next topic will be "How to build a bull trap, and how to make profit of it, only to finally dump a shitload to close it".

[Argwai96]

Bids filled. Waited for that since Sunday   Also thinking about moving funds on finex and opening some longs.

I see many here are buying back! 

Ouch. I hope you waited to open those longs.

Word. Like I said ITT last night, I expected a bounce at the 520-530 area -- should be strong support. But longer time frames are bearish, and plenty of room to fall on daily RSI and Williams %R.

[oda.krell]

What's happening is people are taking profits and cutting their losses after a breakdown? Or is that too realistic?

Surely anyone can only take so much of living in their parents' basement while they're holding tens of thousands of bitcoins however much they believe in it. It's not a bad time to take some profits.

I would say it is actually a terrible time to take profits.  Should have done it weeks ago if one wanted to maximize that profit.  That, or hold on until the next run up.  And make no mistake, there will be one.  

Why? There are two obvious candidate scenarios to take profits, i.e. exit a long position: early on after a rally, at a suspected peak (which requires a certain amount of predictive analysis), and comparably late, when it looks like the only way to go from here is down (momentum based analysis). To me it looks like the current move is driven mainly by the second factor.

[Torque]

How you guys liking that whipsaw action, weeehawww!

[justusranvier]

A lot of people here probably don't even trade and just hodl cold storage coins.

Probably the majority.

Some of are using Bitcoin as it was intended - as a way to secede from the USD.

When your income is delivered via btc, and your expenses can increasingly be paid directly in btc, you gain independence from fiat currencies.

Does a dip matter to traders? Maybe.

Does a dip matter to people with a steady income? Not really. Low prices just mean you can accumulate more coins.

Bitcoin's real value is independence - income independent of location, savings independent of imaginary lines on maps, financial autonomy.

[mmitech]

the most fucked up at the moment are miners, an investor or a trader can close his position to cut his loses anytime, but miner will be stuck with a non profitable hardware that cant sell, above all of that he has to pay for mining costs (power, internet, maintenance, rent....)

Not true, depends where you are in the cycle. My miners have paid themselves off and continue mining at a cost of $190/BTC. So how am I "most fucked"?

Sometimes it helps if you know what you're talking about. You obviously don't!

what miners do you have ? and how did they pay off ( in term of BTC or $) ?

They are BitMain S1 miners, which I purchased with bitcoins directly from China. They're no longer made but still pumping. They are paid off both in terms of $ and BTC. I did have to buy some BTC to purchase the early ones, but when I look at the average cost of the BTC I used to purchase (around $375) and subtract their $ cost, plus electricity, power supplies, extra fans, etc. from the current value of the BTC they've mined so far I'm up about $1100 and they're still mining at $190/BTC. I'll keep mining them as long as they stay profitable.

Of course, if I was to count my time spent setting up and maintaining I'd be in the hole, but like most it's also a hobby. I was also lucky to buy the initial BTC I used for the initial purchases at a lower price and to use the earlier more profitable mined coins (when difficulty was lower) to purchase the follow on miners.

really happy to hear that mining started to be profitable again, I mined on GPUs when diff was around 6 millions, price was around $13,  but not for so long, few months after Avalon started shipping, price started skyrocketing, it was still profitable because the diff. didn't catch up to the price, I tried to get an Avalon but pre-orders were going for around 400-500 BTC which didn't seem worth it, and I couldn't pre-order because I missed the 1st and 2nd batch but the third batch the site was so slow because of traffic, everyone was waiting for the opening, I was hitting refresh button desperately but everything was sold (and I was lucky I didn't buy, it turned to be a disaster), so I slowly sold my GPUs and each time I sold some I sent money to stamp and bought the equivalent of BTC.

I checked the mining scene later (tried to get back to mining), every deal I calculated wasn't going to ROI and I literally mean every deal(in both terms $$ and BTC) it would only fill the pockets of the manufacturers, I think except Avalon batch 1 all other mining equipment was a shit deal, mining blades of 10GH/s were selling for 40-55 BTC. BFL singles were selling for 250-300 BTC... I paid 15 BTC for 3 jalapenos late August 2013 (for fun) I didn't even mine one week on them to realize what that fun had cost me.

 

[BTCfan1]

wow not a lot of resistance on the way up to 570

[FattyMcButterpants]

How you guys liking that whipsaw action, weeehawww!

what, $10 up from the bottom? only a whipsaw if you panic sell at the bottom. for me, i can now just wait and watch for a strong bull reversal. got a good cushion between here and my sells.

[kireinaha]

And once again, the only winner here is the US government, for offloading all those Silk Road coins on that poor schmuck. I'm sure a lot of bidders from June are thanking their lucky stars right now that their bids were defeated.

[vuduchyld]

What's happening is people are taking profits and cutting their losses after a breakdown? Or is that too realistic?

Surely anyone can only take so much of living in their parents' basement while they're holding tens of thousands of bitcoins however much they believe in it. It's not a bad time to take some profits.

I would say it is actually a terrible time to take profits.  Should have done it weeks ago if one wanted to maximize that profit.  That, or hold on until the next run up.  And make no mistake, there will be one.  

Why? There are two obvious candidate scenarios to take profits, i.e. exit a long position: early on after a rally, at a suspected peak (which requires a certain amount of predictive analysis), and comparably late, when it looks like the only way to go from here is down (momentum based analysis). To me it looks like the current move is driven mainly by the second factor.

You're right...if you're exiting now, you're saying that the only way to go is down.  And you'd likely be looking at a reasonably long time horizon, because if it is a profitable long position, you've been in it at least three months.

If you really see nothing but down  you cost yourself quite a bit by not realizing that 24 hours ago.  If you think it might rebound, hell, you've already been in it a while.  

[mmitech]

And once again, the only winner here is the US government, for offloading all those Silk Road coins on that poor schmuck. I'm sure a lot of bidders from June are thanking their lucky stars right now that their bids were defeated.

we don't know for how much the coins went...

[Dump3er]

[q i can now just wait and watch for a strong bull reversal.

That's the sprit we need, dude! We need more buyers for this bull trap. C'mon dude, buy more! Give yourself a push, you surely have some fiat on the sidelines!

[FattyMcButterpants]

i can now just wait and watch for a strong bull reversal.

That's the sprit we need, dude! We need more buyers for this bull trap. C'mon dude, buy more! Give yourself a push, you surely have some fiat on the sidelines!

read over what i said. i am waiting in fiat and not bottom fishing. i'll let others catch the knives, i don't need to catch the bottom.

[Dotto]

I would love to know what the aminorex´s monkey thinks of the lasts swings.

[kireinaha]

And once again, the only winner here is the US government, for offloading all those Silk Road coins on that poor schmuck. I'm sure a lot of bidders from June are thanking their lucky stars right now that their bids were defeated.

we don't know for how much the coins went...

True, but is was widely speculated that they went for approximate market price or slightly over.

I think ~600,00$ was a pretty reasonable guess.

[Brewins]

FUU, we broke the 540's while I was sleeping
At least I was expecting something like that to happen, now the next strong resistence will the find only at the 400's.

But I see clear signals of manipulation(really big bull walls), so its more how far away the manipulators are willing togo than where is the next resist the graph show we must find


===========

[Dump3er]

i can now just wait and watch for a strong bull reversal.

That's the sprit we need, dude! We need more buyers for this bull trap. C'mon dude, buy more! Give yourself a push, you surely have some fiat on the sidelines!

read over what i said. i am waiting in fiat and not bottom fishing. i'll let others catch the knives, i don't need to catch the bottom.

Oh dear, sorry for the mistake! But we need more uber-bulls! C'mon bulls buy more cheap coins from the stupid sellers! For sure, after buying you can boast here, humiliating retard sellers! Buy! Buy! 525,00 was the bottom!

[oda.krell]

What's happening is people are taking profits and cutting their losses after a breakdown? Or is that too realistic?

Surely anyone can only take so much of living in their parents' basement while they're holding tens of thousands of bitcoins however much they believe in it. It's not a bad time to take some profits.

I would say it is actually a terrible time to take profits.  Should have done it weeks ago if one wanted to maximize that profit.  That, or hold on until the next run up.  And make no mistake, there will be one.  

Why? There are two obvious candidate scenarios to take profits, i.e. exit a long position: early on after a rally, at a suspected peak (which requires a certain amount of predictive analysis), and comparably late, when it looks like the only way to go from here is down (momentum based analysis). To me it looks like the current move is driven mainly by the second factor.

You're right...if you're exiting now, you're saying that the only way to go is down.  And you'd likely be looking at a reasonably long time horizon, because if it is a profitable long position, you've been in it at least three months.

If you really see nothing but down  you cost yourself quite a bit by not realizing that 24 hours ago.  If you think it might rebound, hell, you've already been in it a while.  

Keep in mind, I'm just trying to give an explanation on why I don't see the swing of the last days as driven by "panic selling". Sure, if your trading horizon is daily, then selling today at $530 was a miss probably. And if your assumptions about Bitcoin are such that, in a year from now, you think it'll be worthless anyway, you should have sold long ago.

But if you, like a number of speculators/semi-holders/traders/whatever in here, are mostly opportunistic, and don't subscribe to the mantra that any price below the ATH (or some uber-optimistic regression trendline) is "cheap", then what's so irrational about selling now, expecting that you'll be able to buy back cheaper in a week (or a month) from now, when and if the market turns around again.

Time will show if it was indeed "panic selling" or not. If price goes further down from here, it wasn't. If we recover and never touch the mid-500s again, it was.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation