Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Newbie1022]

Seriously, anybody seeing that we are only about 600 coins from a new bottom on Huobi and OKCoin? You seriously don't expect that to hold... hell if I was a whale I'd dump just for entertainment (I mean, not like they don't have enough money as is) at the sight of that even if it meant I lost money. Jesus.

[JayJuanGee]

Shorts closed for now, will set up new ones around 550-560$ No longs in between, i´m too scared that this could crumble any minute, lol.

YOU must be losing lots of money in recent times, the way you are trading...?

I opened shorts@ 555$ closed them @ around 525-535$. Made up for my loss for not selling @ 580$. I´m okay with that for now. Bought back my Bitcoin @535, but have not went leveraged long. I´m going to sell and probably short(dependent to the circumstances if we should go up there) around 560-580$ again. That´s my plan for the next days. And you?

I generally buy when prices are going down and otherwise HODL... unless I have a large amount of confidence that the price is going to go down at least 10%...

I never really get those premonitions of confidence about a price drop... especially at this point below $700-ish,,,,,, that's why I mostly buy and HODL and rarely attempt to get burned by trading.

I know.. boring... .. .I am of the belief that I accumulating...

[Wary]

All the people worth reading like TERA were driven away by the HODL-tards for giving contrarian views. After all the juvenile attacks against them, why would they come back? All you delusional bulls have each other now.

There have been countless others that have come through here only to be driven off.  It doesn't matter if they're bulls or bears, there's absolutely no control here, and after the removal of noobie jail it's just gotten worse.  Couple that with a mod who's asleep at the wheel, or a general bull-troll himself and what do you expect?

These forums have absolutely gone to shit since the beginning of 2013.

Start reporting stuff? This particular thread aside (which by the way is moderated by Adam), I do clean up, but it's largely invisible since the actual bad stuff is deleted. I could clamp down harder on thread quality control, but there simply aren't that many new topics created so that would detract from how fresh page 1 is.

I'm also sad that TERA is gone.

You are doing a great job. But maybe you could lobby Theymos into introducing ability to ignore by activity level? Something like "see only legendary and heroes" (yes, I won't be visible too ).

[dropt]

Dude, somebody in one of the other posts said that there was a 25% chance that BTC would be valued at over $4000 by the end of the year (only a few months away). Drugs. Don't do drugs, kids. Jesus.

And you would have gotten the same response if you made the same claim about $1000 on this date last year.

[inca]

Seriously, anybody seeing that we are only about 600 coins from a new bottom on Huobi and OKCoin? You seriously don't expect that to hold... hell if I was a whale I'd dump just for entertainment (I mean, not like they don't have enough money as is) at the sight of that even if it meant I lost money. Jesus.

Similarly its a little cough and we are basically back where we were yesterday

[Newbie1022]

Dude, somebody in one of the other posts said that there was a 25% chance that BTC would be valued at over $4000 by the end of the year (only a few months away). Drugs. Don't do drugs, kids. Jesus.

And you would have gotten the same response if you made the same claim about $1000 on this date last year.

Different market, man. $4000 might be possible one day... not by the end of the year in a post-Gox environment where we are still working out the regulatory terrain. This is where technical analysis is dangerous and gets a bad name... math would tell you that $4,000 by the end of the year is possible, but if you look up from the calculator and think about the real world you know that it isn't going to happen (and certainly not a 25% in the next few months). Fundamentals and technical analysis should be used together to avoid this... the fundamentals are actually pretty positive despite the need to work out retailer dumps (give the coins to your employees people), but not nearly $4000+ positive.

It's just not going to happen. It's not even close to possible. It isn't like even a lottery chance where it is a super long-shot maybe. It's just not happening. Not in the next few months. Period.

[Newbie1022]

Seriously, anybody seeing that we are only about 600 coins from a new bottom on Huobi and OKCoin? You seriously don't expect that to hold... hell if I was a whale I'd dump just for entertainment (I mean, not like they don't have enough money as is) at the sight of that even if it meant I lost money. Jesus.

Similarly its a little cough and we are basically back where we were yesterday

True... I think the momentum is against us still... but the ride up will be a nice one.

[oda.krell]

So I've been away since yesterday... Was there a triggering event to this drop, or no? Some news or rumor maybe?

Purely market sentiment.  Everyone was talking about 550, 530, and 480, not about going higher.  All forums I read are very bearish.  You are mocked and downvoted on /r/bitcoinmarkets for saying anything positive.  Suddenly, bitcoin is an idiotic idea that will never catch on.

Or maybe everyone was just bored with sideways.

Or maybe we did what we've been doing for the past 6 months: Overshooting the target (usually to the downside), reverting to the mean with some force, then going even higher than that based on momentum and then... wait to find out if buying support matches the level we reached. In May (mid 400s) the answer was a clear 'yes'. In July/August (600s, high 500s) the answer is not so clear imo.

[JayJuanGee]

Shorts closed for now, will set up new ones around 550-560$ No longs in between, i´m too scared that this could crumble any minute, lol.

YOU must be losing lots of money in recent times, the way you are trading...?

I opened shorts@ 555$ closed them @ around 525-535$. Made up for my loss for not selling @ 580$. I´m okay with that for now. Bought back my Bitcoin @535, but have not went leveraged long. I´m going to sell and probably short(dependent to the circumstances if we should go up there) around 560-580$ again. That´s my plan for the next days. And you?

he Hodl, I don't know why hodlers bother reading this subforum when it is mostly for traders, they get pissed and they start crying and attacking others and make a whole scene of drama, I change my sentiment about my trades many times a week, hell sometimes I change them even few times a day, therefore, I would suggest hodlers to go to reddit.com/r/bitcoin it is a better place for their mental health.

YES... IF we have Mmitech describing the reasons and purposes of the subforum, then we are totally screwed.   


At this point it seems that mmitech is trying re-define himself as being a BTC trader - when in reality he seems to be mostly inconsistent and largely unable to explain himself or his reasons or his predictions.   

But hopefully, if nothing else, he is working on his communication skills.

[Dump3er]

Your username seems properly chosen. You are very wrong though

I'm never wrong! You'll see...

Saying that 'because the last 4 small triangles broke to the downside the closing of the next big one will break to the downside too' is wrong. No mater whether it actually breaks up or down

My so sophisticated and very accurate TA skills, are going far beyond falling triangles and my prophesys are always true. In few weeks you'll bow down and ask:

How did you know this, Dumpe3r?! Could you teach me your TA?

When given the opportunity I'd advice you not to bet on that

Ha! Come on! Say it!

Oh Dumpe3r?! How do you do such accurate TA? Is it witchcraft?!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

ah, big players, whales and other mythical beings.

well, market does not give a fukk about them.

...until they paint the ticker. What if some big player in accumulation mode is buying directly from pools/OTC, maybe with the 'excuse' that is an ETF/institutional investors who wants just 'clean'/virgin coins. They would use an exchange price as reference so the accumulator would have a big incentive to sell some on the exchanges while buying more OTC to buy as low as possible.

+1 This is what I have been saying too.

I've thought about this theory for quite a while now. The only thing I can't figure out is how many coins they are buying from miners. The most they can buy from a large mining group that doesn't pay out its individual pool members is under 800 coins a day. So why dump so much to only get 800 coins for such a small discount?

There are 3,600 new coins mined every day..... so a accumulator could have multiple buying contracts... therefore theoretically get up to 3600 per day if they were slick about it and were able to accomplish such.  Where do you get 800 (which is only 22% of the total BTC mined per day)?

.

Sorry man, I went to bed shortly after this post. but... Take a look at the mining pool chart, all big miners are pools, that pay out individuals, so they would not be able to buy those coins. The biggest private pool mines less the 20% of the coins. That is the biggest chunk they can buy from one entity. I am a miner and I hoard my coins, so they aren't buying them off market. This goes for 80% of the coins mined

I thought that you were getting at something like your above explanation, and that is why I suggested the acquisition of several BTC purchasing contracts..... ...

But in the end, maybe you are correct, and there is NOT much ability to acquire a large number of coins off exchange on a sufficiently regular basis in order to manipulate BTC exchange prices downward.   

[Newbie1022]

C'mon... all Street would be dumb to share the profits with you all at this point. What is going to happen is this... they will keep dumping and manipulating until the leveraged longs get wiped out. There will be a cascade. Many long-time players will fold. They'll buy a ton up cheap. Then they'll work the price up to about $1000... people will pop in out of the wood work, again... then Wall Street will steal their lunch money again. Rinse and repeat. This is merely a more volatile microcosm of the larger system now.

A fair price minus all of the bull---- is probably about $575 to $650, but games will be played. Get ready to catch some coins at $200 and don't let these rich bastards take all of your lunch money.

[kireinaha]

All the people worth reading like TERA were driven away by the HODL-tards for giving contrarian views. After all the juvenile attacks against them, why would they come back? All you delusional bulls have each other now.

There have been countless others that have come through here only to be driven off.  It doesn't matter if they're bulls or bears, there's absolutely no control here, and after the removal of noobie jail it's just gotten worse.  Couple that with a mod who's asleep at the wheel, or a general bull-troll himself and what do you expect?

These forums have absolutely gone to shit since the beginning of 2013.

Start reporting stuff? This particular thread aside (which by the way is moderated by Adam), I do clean up, but it's largely invisible since the actual bad stuff is deleted. I could clamp down harder on thread quality control, but there simply aren't that many new topics created so that would detract from how fresh page 1 is.

I'm also sad that TERA is gone.

You are doing a great job. But maybe you could lobby Theymos into introducing ability to ignore by activity level? Something like "see only legendary and heroes" (yes, I won't be visible too ).

This place is getting more and more cult-ish every day.

We must not expose ourselves to those outside the core community... only the wisdom from the senior members 

[Newbie1022]

All the people worth reading like TERA were driven away by the HODL-tards for giving contrarian views. After all the juvenile attacks against them, why would they come back? All you delusional bulls have each other now.

There have been countless others that have come through here only to be driven off.  It doesn't matter if they're bulls or bears, there's absolutely no control here, and after the removal of noobie jail it's just gotten worse.  Couple that with a mod who's asleep at the wheel, or a general bull-troll himself and what do you expect?

These forums have absolutely gone to shit since the beginning of 2013.

Start reporting stuff? This particular thread aside (which by the way is moderated by Adam), I do clean up, but it's largely invisible since the actual bad stuff is deleted. I could clamp down harder on thread quality control, but there simply aren't that many new topics created so that would detract from how fresh page 1 is.

I'm also sad that TERA is gone.

You are doing a great job. But maybe you could lobby Theymos into introducing ability to ignore by activity level? Something like "see only legendary and heroes" (yes, I won't be visible too ).

This place is getting more and more cult-ish every day.

We must not expose ourselves to those outside the core community... only the wisdom from the senior members 

I am not quite as bearish as you, but, yes, we have a cult on our hands. I think the thought is that if they only hear positive news from people saying we are going to be up to $4,000+ by the end of the year (this is truly a laughable statement), that it might just come true. If they are only trading with other delusional bulls maybe the game can go on forever.

[Newbie1022]

The only question that matters is what is the bottom. Not where we will go after that because we aren't there, yet... that's not a decision point. The decision point is where we are in relation to a bottom right now. Frankly, I don't think anybody knows (or could know) given the leverage at play. These $4000+ bulltards and 16 to 1 longs (you can do this on Plus500) in the middle of a bear market need some serious help though. http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/

[JayJuanGee]

Don't worry, the next big rally is around the corner. It's just waiting for me to sell my coins.

What is your trigger for selling your coins?

[Odalv]

Don't worry, the next big rally is around the corner. It's just waiting for me to sell my coins.

What is your trigger for selling your coins?

$3k ?

[Newbie1022]

Don't worry, the next big rally is around the corner. It's just waiting for me to sell my coins.

What is your trigger for selling your coins?

$3k ?

Please tell me you meant ¥3k (meh... I'll spot you ¥4k or ¥5k... but let's not get carried away, here).

[jaberwock]

Price boringly around the 550's for the last few hours. Hope the western's night will bring some good movement today.

Also will the new rally start ty october again? Exactly one year ago we are recovering from a bottom, so all of sudden the big rise of october has begun