Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mmitech]

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

Oh please. Do you know how many people he's hurt with his "decent data and/or historical perspective?" You do know he thought BTC would be at $10k back in late 2011/early 2012 right? And was actively promoting such stupidity?

nope he said that BTC would be at $100K in 2013 I remember that crystal clear, and only delusional noobs that couldn't reach anything in life believe's him and become totally blind because of that. I didn't see a single technical analyze that he claim to be good at... even the number of users/holders and adoption rate that he claim that he can calculate is pulled out of his ass, I would love to see him explaining where he gets the numbers from, I did math for a good part of my life so I am sure I would understand or at least try to 

[oda.krell]

Not really, huobi and okcoin have mostly fake volumes. Biggest platform are bitstamp&bitfinex then btcchina. Not saying that huobi and okcoin has to be ignored (we are adding them very soon ) but their volumes has to be taken as half fake.

I avoid calling it "fake" volume, but I agree. The current (daily) leg of the capitulation is, in my opinion, mainly driven by Bitfinex - not really a surprise, given the huge built-up leveraged long positions that Blitz highlighted in his post ages ago. Despite their daily volume still being dwarfed by the Chinese exchanges.

So that's further evidence for those of us who believe that, while CNY volume might be "real", it is simply less relevant, per dollar, being largely automated, zero fee volume.

In my view, China played a much larger role than you think recently. Prior to this downturn a couple days ago, it was them who were the only bullish ones, higher than all the others, and preventing the price from slipping repeatedly. It was the sudden weakness of Huobi with a lower price than others (I don't watch OKCoin) and its incredibly lackluster bids that have made this possible, as I see it.

Interesting observation. Didn't see it, but I'll try if I can find that view by looking at it myself.

Let me change my point a bit: by volume alone, China, and China alone should matter (cue Jorge). Bitfinex played a crucial role today. Bitstamp does as well (the mini recovery right now is mainly driven by stamp and finex, to my eyes).

So the old method, look at the highest volume exchange, and ignore all others, doesn't work anymore. Agreed with that statement?

[aminorex]

I think Risto's point is that we can all "eat cake" too is we just hold and don't panic (or buy during this great opportunities to do so if possible).

Maybe I am strange but I find his words quite comforting.  

This is a bit more harsh than I would like, but to be brutally honest, the strangest aspect of the dialogue here is the complete lack of self-awareness among those whose ressentiment betrays the weakness of their character, and hence the unlikeliness of their long-term success.  Generally such self-deluded conditions only end when the victim (i.e. the perpetrator) reaches a rock-bottom of desperation, in which the mind becomes more plastic and amenable to reform.

[fonsie]

We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.

What a jerk!  NOT b/c you traded but b/c you engaged in deceptive tactics...

That's what we bulls call a steer.

[JayJuanGee]

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

Oh please. Do you know how many people he's hurt with his "decent data and/or historical perspective?" You do know he thought BTC would be at $10k back in late 2011/early 2012 right? And was actively promoting such stupidity?

Yeah... I had noticed also that he does tend to be a bit more hyper-bullish than the rest of the bullish ones.

[Argwai96]

We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.

Good for you. Not sure on the bottom part, but always good to profit in coins. I got in 50% at 46x and am waiting to see if this turns back down....

[N12]

Not really, huobi and okcoin have mostly fake volumes. Biggest platform are bitstamp&bitfinex then btcchina. Not saying that huobi and okcoin has to be ignored (we are adding them very soon ) but their volumes has to be taken as half fake.

I avoid calling it "fake" volume, but I agree. The current (daily) leg of the capitulation is, in my opinion, mainly driven by Bitfinex - not really a surprise, given the huge built-up leveraged long positions that Blitz highlighted in his post ages ago. Despite their daily volume still being dwarfed by the Chinese exchanges.

So that's further evidence for those of us who believe that, while CNY volume might be "real", it is simply less relevant, per dollar, being largely automated, zero fee volume.

In my view, China played a much larger role than you think recently. Prior to this downturn a couple days ago, it was them who were the only bullish ones, higher than all the others, and preventing the price from slipping repeatedly. It was the sudden weakness of Huobi with a lower price than others (I don't watch OKCoin) and its incredibly lackluster bids that have made this possible, as I see it.

Interesting observation. Didn't see it, but I'll try if I can find that view by looking at it myself.

Let me change my point a bit: by volume alone, China, and China alone should matter (cue Jorge). Bitfinex played a crucial role today. Bitstamp does as well (the mini recovery right now is mainly driven by stamp and finex, to my eyes).

So the old method, look at the highest volume exchange, and ignore all others, doesn't work anymore. Agreed with that statement?

Sure, I don't think China is always leading anymore, and their volume numbers are incomparable anyway since they still have no fees. I just watch stamp/finex/huobi and when all 3 converge (no significant/unusual divergences), the trend is clear. When there's a divergence, then we have lots of friction and it's hard to sustain movement before resolving it.

[Argwai96]

Sure, I don't think China is always leading anymore, and their volume numbers are incomparable anyway since they still have no fees. I just watch stamp/finex/huobi and when all 3 converge (no significant/unusual divergences), the trend is clear. When there's a divergence, then we have lots of friction and it's hard to sustain movement before resolving it.

I find that China is still driving the action, but that Stamp and BFX mitigate or exacerbate the moves. For example, Stamp's enormous bid walling sometimes stops Huobi's down moves short. BFX's cascade last night drove us down. But the trend was already clear there.

[JayJuanGee]

Final capitulations are the sweetest buying opportunities. You would probably never have heard of me, unless I happened to analyze the fundamentals and charts for month, before buying in at the final capitulation of 2011.

The more ppl speak like you (and the less they speak like me  ) the better, because that much closer to the bottom we are.

But real tough guys can make the decision without sentiment analysis as well as with it. I hardly knew about the forums back then, even my account is from 2012.

It is the new money that will raise the price to new levels. They are still waiting. What can you do but wait? Next room to me now, there is a guy who takes jacuzzi every day and smokes cigars. He held through the bubble, and the fall, and the capitulation (of 2011) and ever since. His friends sold out in the downtrend and said they will come back if/when the tide turns. They never did. They are probably working now.

Bitcoin does not care if you make money or not. Also I don't care. I know there are enough people in the world who understand reasonable speech, and gravitate into Bitcoin in waves. And if bitcoin is foiled, now we have Monero, so there is a real backup, vainly sought after for 2-3 years.

The waiters came to ask what I want for breakfast, and roasted liver with red wine sounded like nice. Thank you for listening.

I like what you did there, pouring oil on fire  

I beg to disagree Casually dropping some info about your at-noon breakfast of roasted liver with wine, in the middle of a capitulation that'll cost quite a few investors dearly, is the real oil-on-fire. Which is why I got the Marie Antoinette association.

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

I think Risto's point is that we can all "eat cake" too is we just hold and don't panic (or buy during this great opportunities to do so if possible).

Maybe I am strange but I find his words quite comforting.  To be able to drink a glass of wine with no worries to what Bitcoin is doing at the present impressive, especially when it is so easy to get emotional about it.  But I am admittedly a huge fan of Risto.  Of all the people on the thread he has been the most helpful to me, and generous too.

There is NOTHING wrong with being appreciative of the contributions of Risto or anyone else for that matter, and I get your point that he may have NOT meant to be pompous in his presentation of that situation.

 NONETHELESS, he does have some flaws... especially in the hooty-tooty tone arena... from time to time...

Having said all that, I appreciate his contributions, too....  but I also think that it helps for the survival of bitcoin to have people like Risto (who have profited in the past from BTC) to invest back in to BTC in order to help build a better and stronger BTC infrastructure in order that newcomers can become acquainted and comfortable with BTC space.

[aminorex]

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

Oh please. Do you know how many people he's hurt with his "decent data and/or historical perspective?" You do know he thought BTC would be at $10k back in late 2011/early 2012 right? And was actively promoting such stupidity?

Yeah... I had noticed also that he does tend to be a bit more hyper-bullish than the rest of the bullish ones.

Timing is always much harder than levels.  A perfectly correct fundamental thesis, which depends on chaotic maturation processes will always be thus.  You're just exhibiting a short time-horizon here.

On said short horizon, Monkey thinks the uptrend can last 20 hours.

More importantly for me, Monkey calls an ES1 top, CL1 bottom, intraday, now.  (These are counter-trend reversals, i.e. episodes in a larger ES1 uptrend, CL1 downtrend, which are in turn episodes in yet larger ES1 downtrend/CL1 uptrend regimes).

[podyx]

You guys think we reached the bottom at 497??

[Miz4r]

We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.

When Shroomskit calls a bottom we know for sure the bottom isn't in yet. Sorry buddy but your pain isn't over yet.

[BTCfan1]

You guys think we reached the bottom at 497??

well the current "bottom" anyway

[AmazonStuff]

You guys think we reached the bottom at 497??

Yap, we are done

[Argwai96]

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

Oh please. Do you know how many people he's hurt with his "decent data and/or historical perspective?" You do know he thought BTC would be at $10k back in late 2011/early 2012 right? And was actively promoting such stupidity?

Yeah... I had noticed also that he does tend to be a bit more hyper-bullish than the rest of the bullish ones.

Timing is always much harder than levels.  A perfectly correct fundamental thesis, which depends on chaotic maturation processes will always be thus.  You're just exhibiting a short time-horizon here.

On said short horizon, Monkey thinks the uptrend can last 20 hours.

More importantly for me, Monkey calls an ES1 top, CL1 bottom, intraday, now.  (These are counter-trend reversals, i.e. episodes in a larger ES1 uptrend, CL1 downtrend, which are in turn episodes in yet larger ES1 downtrend/CL1 uptrend regimes).

Do you have a chart that shows these levels? What are your targets? I think this looks like the type of sucker rally before final legs down.

[oda.krell]

This is a bit more harsh than I would like, but to be brutally honest, the strangest aspect of the dialogue here is the complete lack of self-awareness among those whose ressentiment betrays the weakness of their character, and hence the unlikeliness of their long-term success.  Generally such self-deluded conditions only end when the victim (i.e. the perpetrator) reaches a rock-bottom of desperation, in which the mind becomes more plastic and amenable to reform.

I find the susceptibility to ressentiment fairly evenly distributed in this forum. It almost reminds me of a school yard sometimes, with all its childish intrigue.

The rest of what you say sounds a bit too new age-ish for me. "Weakness of character" related to likeliness of long-term success. Really? Might be a different perspective on things across the pond (assuming you're from the US) ... I remember reading a survey in which a significantly higher number of EU respondents felt that the major developments in their life were not under their direct control compared to US respondents.

[Argwai96]

We reached the bottom. I'm back in. Thanks for playing.

When Shroomskit calls a bottom we know for sure the bottom isn't in yet. Sorry buddy but your pain isn't over yet.

My opinion as well. Hit the .786 on Huobi with a little panic, but hit the brakes now. I think we HAD to bounce after that BFX margin call cascade. Such fun!!

[BitChick]

Final capitulations are the sweetest buying opportunities. You would probably never have heard of me, unless I happened to analyze the fundamentals and charts for month, before buying in at the final capitulation of 2011.

The more ppl speak like you (and the less they speak like me  ) the better, because that much closer to the bottom we are.

But real tough guys can make the decision without sentiment analysis as well as with it. I hardly knew about the forums back then, even my account is from 2012.

It is the new money that will raise the price to new levels. They are still waiting. What can you do but wait? Next room to me now, there is a guy who takes jacuzzi every day and smokes cigars. He held through the bubble, and the fall, and the capitulation (of 2011) and ever since. His friends sold out in the downtrend and said they will come back if/when the tide turns. They never did. They are probably working now.

Bitcoin does not care if you make money or not. Also I don't care. I know there are enough people in the world who understand reasonable speech, and gravitate into Bitcoin in waves. And if bitcoin is foiled, now we have Monero, so there is a real backup, vainly sought after for 2-3 years.

The waiters came to ask what I want for breakfast, and roasted liver with red wine sounded like nice. Thank you for listening.

I like what you did there, pouring oil on fire  

I beg to disagree Casually dropping some info about your at-noon breakfast of roasted liver with wine, in the middle of a capitulation that'll cost quite a few investors dearly, is the real oil-on-fire. Which is why I got the Marie Antoinette association.

Yep.. I noticed that too... Risto can be a little bit pompously irritating from time to time - even if he may be dropping some otherwise decent data and/or historical perspective.

I think Risto's point is that we can all "eat cake" too is we just hold and don't panic (or buy during this great opportunities to do so if possible).

Maybe I am strange but I find his words quite comforting.  To be able to drink a glass of wine with no worries to what Bitcoin is doing at the present impressive, especially when it is so easy to get emotional about it.  But I am admittedly a huge fan of Risto.  Of all the people on the thread he has been the most helpful to me, and generous too.

There is NOTHING wrong with being appreciative of the contributions of Risto or anyone else for that matter, and I get your point that he may have NOT meant to be pompous in his presentation of that situation.

 NONETHELESS, he does have some flaws... especially in the hooty-tooty tone arena... from time to time...

Having said all that, I appreciate his contributions, too....  but I also think that it helps for the survival of bitcoin to have people like Risto (who have profited in the past from BTC) to invest back in to BTC in order to help build a better and stronger BTC infrastructure in order that newcomers can become acquainted and comfortable with BTC space.

If and when we have castles of our own how will people react to us? Will they think we are pompous jerks just because of that alone?  I think sometimes just being wealthy, successful, or in a different situation in life is enough to cause envy and see things that are not necessarily there, or can be construed to be that way. 

For example, I live in a pretty wealthy area in California, but would still be considered "middle class."  I find that those that are wealthy are often considered "pompous" just because they have nice houses and cars.  Some even consider my husband and I "rich" and although it seems totally ridiculous to us, think we are "snobby" because of where we live.  Of course we know in our neighborhood we are just average.  But I have learned that we see others through our own lens of our experiences and we need to step back and consider where the other person is coming from.

That said, I don't think Risto is ever really trying to be pompous.  He may have a little fun with the successes he has had and post a comment here and there about it, but I think his heart is one that wants to encourage us not to "throw in the towel" so to speak and hold on or buy more coins and try to see the big picture. He has been in this a bit longer than many of us have and has reaped the rewards that could well be ours too if we just show a little patience and self-control.

[aminorex]

"Weakness of character" related to likeliness of long-term success. Really? Might be a different perspective on things across the pond (assuming you're from the US) ... I remember reading a survey in which a significantly higher number of EU respondents felt that the major developments in their life were not under their direct control compared to US respondents.

I can read that in two ways:  Material conditions in the EU have historically tended to reward effort less, vs. EU respondents median strength of character was poorer.  I consider the former to be a sufficient explanation, and the latter to be inflammatory.

Anyone who has ever faced combat will, regardless of their national origin, immediately recognize that resolution and will are crucial to success in adversarial conditions.  One scenario: If your adversary co-opts you successfully, they win.  That is the prevailing scenario in the developed world today.  I have not spent enough time in under-developed regions to comment on the prevailing scenario in those venues.  Generalizing, an excellent way to defeat your enemy is to destroy their will to win.  EU respondents seem to have been defeated more thoroughly than US respondents, in that case.  But such pendula do reverse their swing from time to time.

Of course, it may be argued that choosing combat exhibits weakness of character (or at least, of intellect) much deeper than the strength of character which enables victory in combat.

[Torque]

"Weakness of character" related to likeliness of long-term success. Really? Might be a different perspective on things across the pond (assuming you're from the US) ... I remember reading a survey in which a significantly higher number of EU respondents felt that the major developments in their life were not under their direct control compared to US respondents.

I can read that in two ways:  Material conditions in the EU have historically tended to reward effort less, vs. EU respondents median strength of character was poorer.  I consider the former to be a sufficient explanation, and the latter to be inflammatory.

Anyone who has ever faced combat will, regardless of their national origin, immediately recognize that resolution and will are crucial to success in adversarial conditions.  One scenario: If your adversary co-opts you successfully, they win.  That is the prevailing scenario in the developed world today.  I have not spent enough time in under-developed regions to comment on the prevailing scenario in those venues.

Of course, it may be argued that choosing combat exhibits weakness of character (or at least, of intellect) much deeper than the strength of character which enables victory in combat.

That said, I don't think Risto is ever really trying to be pompous.  He may have a little fun with the successes he has had and post a comment here and there about it, but I think his heart is one that wants to encourage us not to "throw in the towel" so to speak and hold on or buy more coins and try to see the big picture. He has been in this a bit longer than many of us have and has reaped the rewards that could well be ours too if we just show a little patience and self-control.

Agreed, and well said.  Risto has absolutely nothing to win by encouraging and causing others to lose money.

Also, it will be interesting to come back to this board in a few years.  I'm sure that 90% of the posters in this sub forum, and on this thread, will be gone.