Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[abercrombie]

is crypto done?

[adamstgBit]

is crypto done?

no only bitcoin

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Bitfinex margin calls FLASH CRASH to $1 in 3... 2... 1...

They have already implemented features to prevent this... sorry

Well the flash crash that we just saw yesterday to $450 was just basically that.

Yes that was the implementation working. I have many open longs, 2 of which should have closed around 460 and they did not. Therefore a flash crash of closing longs will not happen. The crash to 451 was sells not cascading margins.

http://www.matlabtrading.net/main/2014/08/14/bitfinex-margin-call-cascade-algorithm-explained/

There was suddenly a huge difference between Bitfinex and Bitstamp and all the other exchanges, I don't know what happened with your longs but that was definitely a cascade of stop losses being triggered.

[fallinglantern]

is crypto done?

is that capitulation I hear? Naw, nobody's mentioned suicide hotlines on this thread lately.

[Schickeria]

Even deliberate selling to move prices down requires coins.

You are putting way too much faith in the integrity of the exchanges and third part wallet services.

There is nothing that stops Bitstamp (deliberately or via subversion) from giving sellers infinite paper btc to trade with. They can get away with it as long as most people don't try to withdraw their coins. If they suddenly started making it hard for people to get their bitcoins back, that would be a possible indicator of this.

There is also nothing that stops Coinbase from loaning out customer btc deposits to short sellers. We'd never know if they had done so.

I really don't understand this...

I know you as a reasonable, knowledgeable poster. And, yes, what you describe is a possibility, but so is the claim that the entire 2013 rally was driven by Willy (which I don't believe either, for the record).

So why is it so hard to entertain the possibility that we're seeing the breach of the damn as a result of built-up selling pressure? We had a good rally to $680, from there on things started looking difficult, selling pressure was extremely subdued (for a number of reasons, but imo, mainly because the "hodl" mantra actually took hold - no pun intended), but without further fiat inflow and subsequent positive price action, it is only a matter of time before the sell-offs kick in.

Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now?

i can't believe people read all the good news and sell.

people look at the price and sell...

this move is purely manipulative.

I think the initial kick, were caused by inpatient people which saw a new bubble forming, what has not happened, so they sold. Now the initial downward kick has become a negative dynamic building up a strong downtrend.

[bigtimespaghetti]

Oh my, broke 500. 470,440 for major support now.

[N12]

There's a simple question: If over the course of a couple weeks, supply (BTC) increases and demand (USD) decreases, would you have us not adjust prices because that would be "manipulation"?

Also, if manipulation is so easy, why aren't the Winklevosses or other large holders who are no longer accumulating doing their own manipulation upwards?

It's really getting pathetic, guys.

[BitChick]

Even deliberate selling to move prices down requires coins.

You are putting way too much faith in the integrity of the exchanges and third part wallet services.

There is nothing that stops Bitstamp (deliberately or via subversion) from giving sellers infinite paper btc to trade with. They can get away with it as long as most people don't try to withdraw their coins. If they suddenly started making it hard for people to get their bitcoins back, that would be a possible indicator of this.

There is also nothing that stops Coinbase from loaning out customer btc deposits to short sellers. We'd never know if they had done so.

I really don't understand this...

I know you as a reasonable, knowledgeable poster. And, yes, what you describe is a possibility, but so is the claim that the entire 2013 rally was driven by Willy (which I don't believe either, for the record).

So why is it so hard to entertain the possibility that we're seeing the breach of the damn as a result of built-up selling pressure? We had a good rally to $680, from there on things started looking difficult, selling pressure was extremely subdued (for a number of reasons, but imo, mainly because the "hodl" mantra actually took hold - no pun intended), but without further fiat inflow and subsequent positive price action, it is only a matter of time before the sell-offs kick in.

Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now?

i can't believe people read all the good news and sell.

people look at the price and sell...

this move is purely manipulative.

I agree.  Hold people.  The price will most likely be $700+ by months end.

[adamstgBit]

if you have a little faith, and some fiat, now might be a good time...

[njcarlos]

There's a simple question: If over the course of a couple weeks, supply (BTC) increases and demand (USD) decreases, would you have us not adjust prices because that would be "manipulation"?

Also, if manipulation is so easy, why aren't the Winklevosses or other large holders who are no longer accumulating doing their own manipulation upwards?

It's really getting pathetic, guys.

Glad I'm not alone on this.

[TheJuice]

if you have a little faith, and some fiat, now might be a good time...

Waiting for my bitfinex money to open up. Damn 10 day loans!! Some ends tomorrow, hopefully we are still this low and i can gobble upsome cheap coins

[hdbuck]

Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now?

Just in case it's not a rhetorical question: No, man, this is happening on multiple exchanges, so whatever we are seeing is real. Of course, there are some who can't accept reality when it doesn't suit them and will try explaining it away with conspiracy "manipulation".

reality is manipulated.

[johnwest]

Or am I being naive for considering this the most likely reason for what we're seeing now?

Just in case it's not a rhetorical question: No, man, this is happening on multiple exchanges, so whatever we are seeing is real. Of course, there are some who can't accept reality when it doesn't suit them and will try explaining it away with conspiracy "manipulation".

reality is manipulated.

It is, but only some people can manipulate the market, not easy to manipulate market.
May be they have big news, we don't know much about it, so they are dropping down
the price to buy cheap coins, people normally sell on panic when they see price dropping fast.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

There's a simple question: If over the course of a couple weeks, supply (BTC) increases and demand (USD) decreases, would you have us not adjust prices because that would be "manipulation"?

Also, if manipulation is so easy, why aren't the Winklevosses or other large holders who are no longer accumulating doing their own manipulation upwards?

It's really getting pathetic, guys.

"Manipulating upwards" like you say would not be really profitable for them right now tbh.  What is the point of eating asks and asks when you can almost double your whole stack of BTCs rebuying lower?    

I agree with you though, what we are seeing is mostly lack of new fiat. I don't buy this whole "it' all manipulation guys!" mentality either.
But I also think that to sparkle the new rally is not about the average joe setting an account at Bitstamp and buying some, it's about the whales, and traders who still have a lot of fiat accumulated from the bear market.
If there is a rally and we start to go to new highs, the media will talk about bitcoin, the whole mania phase will begin AND THEN you will see new average joe money (in mass quantities)

[N12]

There's a simple question: If over the course of a couple weeks, supply (BTC) increases and demand (USD) decreases, would you have us not adjust prices because that would be "manipulation"?

Also, if manipulation is so easy, why aren't the Winklevosses or other large holders who are no longer accumulating doing their own manipulation upwards?

It's really getting pathetic, guys.

"Manipulating upwards" like you say would not be really profitable for them right now tbh.  What is the point of eating asks and asks when you can almost double your whole stack of BTCs rebuying lower?   

And how would they "double their whole stack" if the Winklevosses are holding 6 digits of Bitcoin? Yes, they have 100k BTC. What's on the exchanges is absolute peanuts to them. They have no more interest in accumulating more since they bought it all at double digit prices.

[nioc]

eBay payment unit in talks to accept bitcoin.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ebay-payment-unit-in-talks-to-accept-bitcoin-1408052917

More good news about Winklevii ETF

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-15/spiderwoman-brings-hope-to-winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-etf.html

Yet the price falls.

Your game is up, Mr Margin Call!

Good news you say?  from the winkleloss twins article.......

“She brings instant credibility to a less-than-credible investment product,” Todd Rosenbluth, director of mutual fund and ETF research at S&P Capital IQ.

[oda.krell]

There's a simple question: If over the course of a couple weeks, supply (BTC) increases and demand (USD) decreases, would you have us not adjust prices because that would be "manipulation"?

Also, if manipulation is so easy, why aren't the Winklevosses or other large holders who are no longer accumulating doing their own manipulation upwards?

It's really getting pathetic, guys.

Your post,
Like pissing into the wind of stupidity.
Too bad,
It is you who will get wet.

(sorry for the wrong syllable count and lack of seasonal reference )

[Moria843]

Well I put some more money where my mouth is. I just put bought 2 coins on Coinbase for $491/each. My question is is there a cheaper place to buy for people in US?

I also have a Kraken account but it restricts $ purchase because I'm in Ohio

I applied for a Circle account a couple months back and I'm still waiting for my "invitation"  

Is there a "best" or better exchange to trade/buy BTC or should I just stick to Coinbase?

[hdbuck]

There's a simple question: If over the course of a couple weeks, supply (BTC) increases and demand (USD) decreases, would you have us not adjust prices because that would be "manipulation"?

Also, if manipulation is so easy, why aren't the Winklevosses or other large holders who are no longer accumulating doing their own manipulation upwards?

It's really getting pathetic, guys.

"Manipulating upwards" like you say would not be really profitable for them right now tbh.  What is the point of eating asks and asks when you can almost double your whole stack of BTCs rebuying lower?    

And how would they "double their whole stack" if the Winklevosses are holding 6 digits of Bitcoin? What's on the exchanges is absolute peanuts to them. They have no more interest in accumulating more since they bought it all at double digit prices.

having the price that low also impacts off exchanges deals. +i dont think 3-4millions BTCs is peanuts. there is no incentives to make it break prev ATH for now. we are still in accumulating phase. and people out there want a piece of that cake before it sets off for stratosphere.

[njcarlos]

The basic truth is that until we have like 6 months of stable sideways movement, you will not be seeing confident inflight of new capital at rates high enough to maintain current valuations. It just won't happen. I still think that, as a whole, we completely overestimate the competency and computer literacy of the vast majority of the general public. I have friends that are quite tech savvy that still don't fully understand how to buy, or use, BTC, let alone what's going on under the hood. For that reason, the BTC bubble will be extremely painful to many people. I can see a gradual fall all the way to low to mid $300s.