Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Newbie1022]

About to get ugly for you shorters.  Try not to trample each other too much when you're covering.  Don't worry, there's room for at least 3 or 4 of you to profit!

This rally has fewer legs than Lieutenant Dan.

[fonzie]

Stamp still ~15$ higher than China. This won´t end well.

[mmitech]

I wonder if my prediction of 460-450$ will hold

$450 is massive support. It has to have a major bounce there, even if it trends lower after that.

I think that 450 is not going to hold for a long time, hell I think even 400 is not going to hold if we continue this way, I am full fiat and waiting by the side for 2 weeks now, I think we are still far away from the bottom, I am not going to buy in the 400s range for sure.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

About to get ugly for you shorters.  Try not to trample each other too much when you're covering.  Don't worry, there's room for at least 3 or 4 of you to profit!

This rally has fewer legs than Lieutenant Dan.

Forrest Dump:


Dump Forrest, Dump!!!

[Newbie1022]

New crackpot theory... a lot of the buy and sell walls are the exact same amount... like 10.3 BTCs or some odd number. What if they are the same guy? He isn't losing much because he is just trading with himself.

[magicmexican]

I am not going to buy in the 400s range for sure.

This could be a mistake, you should consider buying some % in low 400's

[Miz4r]

Who hasn't cut his loose?

me. I use to go down with the ship since 2011 and always came back afloat richer. But I stay in crypto for other reasons too.  

Same here, 80% of my coins are in cold storage anyway so not bothering with those. I've only sold 10% of my coins at 600 way earlier and now I'm just trying to find a nice spot to buy back. I've been saying that it wouldn't go lower than 450 so I will probably buy some there. Next sweet spot below that is at 420. If that breaks too the next buy level would be 350 for me, and after that 270. If it goes even lower than that which I can hardly imagine I will have my last buy orders at 200 because of a dream I had where I saw that Bitcoin would bottom out at 199. I'm not going to bother waiting for a proper reversal with the right signals before buying back because that way I will almost certainly end up buying back much higher on average. Just playing it by ear.

[JayJuanGee]

Who are these crazy bastards buying right now. I mean, it's generally a good price and all... but you don't know where this is going, yet. Ballsy, ballsy people.

Much more ballsy to sell at this time than it would be to buy at this time.  My finger was on the trigger to buy another couple BTC, but the price missed my buy point by a couple of dollars... I am waiting it out a little bit.. but I may just get anxious and buy my allotted amount - just for shits and giggles.

[JayJuanGee]

Unable to buy on BFX 

I kept thinking too, that Coinbase was going to run out of coins again  today at about this same time as they did yesterday; however, has NOT happened yet.. at least to my knowledge.  Maybe they stocked up a little more, after (and maybe because of) yesterday's 5-6 hour no coins available for sale fiasco?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

I am not going to buy in the 400s range for sure.

This could be a mistake, you should consider buying some % in low 400's

This.... if you aren't sure where the bottom is then scatter bids in different ranges so that you end up catching something cheap.

[JayJuanGee]

This constant dumpning is fucking frustrating!!

this thing goes wrong, im losing alottsa cash

BETTER SELL NOW OR LOOSE EVERYTHING: aka C Y L

YOU HAVE NOT BOUGHT BACK IN, YET, FUNZIE?     



FUCK!!!!!   

[Newbie1022]

Who are these crazy bastards buying right now. I mean, it's generally a good price and all... but you don't know where this is going, yet. Ballsy, ballsy people.

Much more ballsy to sell at this time than it would be to buy at this time.  My finger was on the trigger to buy another couple BTC, but the price missed my buy point by a couple of dollars... I am waiting it out a little bit.. but I may just get anxious and buy my allotted amount - just for shits and giggles.

Ahhh... this I understand. If I took this much of the ride I certainly wouldn't be selling at this point even if I don't know what's up or down anymore. BUT, I don't understand people shooting their entire load at this price. I'd scatter a few bids so that I get this price, but I still have some ammo should the price drop (which keeps your average price in check). That would be my play... if I wasn't a degenerate gambler going more or less all or nothing on a short... unfortunately, I am a degenerate gambler.

Which, by the way, reminds me of when I was at the race track a couple months ago with my father... who is the definition of a compulsive gambler. They were watching the horses and then there was an intermission between the races. So he and a buddy of his saw two roaches running across the floor. Without hesitation, they both took to gambling on the roaches... my father was yelling, "C'mon roachie!!!"

More or less, that's my modus operandi. But the scatter bid play should work really well.

[FattyMcButterpants]

this is very ugly. there are like... no buyers to be found anywhere. the bulls went on vacation for the summer..... hopefully. i'm just setting low flash crash bids at this point..... if there's a strong breakout to the upside, i'll jump in. but boy does this look ugly.

[JayJuanGee]

@JayJuanGee

Better cut your loose before it´s too late!

YOU are SOOOOOOOOO, Comedian!!!!   

I do NOT sell in times like these.  I'm NOT so smart enough!!!!!- Maybe I will sell a little here and there when I am sufficiently in the black (like above 15% in the black), and then my thinking will change... but for now....


HODL! and BUYDL!

[Newbie1022]

this is very ugly. there are like... no buyers to be found anywhere. the bulls went on vacation for the summer..... hopefully. i'm just setting low flash crash bids at this point..... if there's a strong breakout to the upside, i'll jump in. but boy does this look ugly.

If you are doing Finex remember it is 10% from the trigger point. Normally, I'd say the trigger point is $451 which would bring you to about $406. However, with the margin maintenance adjusted and Finex being glitchy, it is tough to know exactly the trigger point. I picked a little above $415 and I may adjust it if we go within 10% of there without a flasher (flasher... sounds more fun than flash crash).

[JayJuanGee]

Did anybody notice the China sell off?



My current theory is that China's private credit engine/shadow banking sector has stalled. So Chinese Btc speculators have been forced to liquidate.

Any other views out there?  Thanks.

It's not persuasive. If shadow banking sector stalled, the Chinese security market wouldn't have had been so firm.

The crypto bulb popped, no fresh money coming in. Is it simple as that? I've got to hodl with my average cost high in the sky.

What's your average costs, approximately?  Mine is about $609 (atm), and yes average cost (being in the red or the black) does affect thinking and behavior...

No leverage, right? I think you gotta hang in there, buddy. You've taken the worst of it up to this point. Even if there is a flash crash that would happen at about 455/450 and we'd stabilize around 430. I doubt, at that point, they'd be able to continue hunting margins even lower than the low 400s range... there'd be too much buy pressure.

So, that's probably the worst case scenario. The best cast is we found a bottom and you didn't move in and out with the incidental costs/slippage that come with not knowing where the bottom is.

So yes, if no leverage, hold tough. If leveraged, maybe still... but that's rough.

I am NOT in the trading mode... but yep.. that seems a pretty solid suggestion for any person who may be in a similar situation... ... though I am prepared even if the situation is worse b/c I did NOT invest any more than I can afford to lose (or loose in modern wall parlance).

I do have some leverage, but it NOT a real big deal to me.. the leverage comes due in September 2015, and is the equivalent of about $20k.. ..   The fee was about $800 for that $20k... so I have pretty decent confidence that BTC prices will sufficiently go up for me to recover that $800  - yet I am financially prepared in the event that it does NOT... I am more than willing to take such a risk based on my view and calculation of the upside potential of BTC in its current overall posture...

[FattyMcButterpants]

this is very ugly. there are like... no buyers to be found anywhere. the bulls went on vacation for the summer..... hopefully. i'm just setting low flash crash bids at this point..... if there's a strong breakout to the upside, i'll jump in. but boy does this look ugly.

If you are doing Finex remember it is 10% from the trigger point. Normally, I'd say the trigger point is $451 which would bring you to about $406. However, with the margin maintenance adjusted and Finex being glitchy, it is tough to know exactly the trigger point. I picked a little above $415 and I may adjust it if we go within 10% of there without a flasher (flasher... sounds more fun than flash crash).

not just margin calls (and trying to estimate the trigger for a cascade is wild speculation imo), but flash crash generally. i'm looking more at $420 on other exchanges = hopefully sub-400 on bitfinex.

[JayJuanGee]

NOW, you are turning into a bear, Podyx?     

[JayJuanGee]

Wow current price actions seems to indicate we are going to revisit 440/430. I was not expecting that. I wonder how long the rise will be postponed because of this. If we aren't back above 500 by the end of the month I'll be out of Risto's contest.

They'll be a quick bounce back (especially if we hit a spot that is so far beyond a doubt a bottom). We have leverage and we have zealots -- of course they'll be a quick bounce back. Further, Coinbase is selling people coins at Friday's price... this means Coinbase thinks Friday's price is equal to or higher than the present price.

That's NOT true...

The truth is only if people exercised that stupid-ass offer that Coinbase made would they be locked into getting coins at Friday's price (at the same time that they had attempted to buy on Sunday).  HOWEVER, that same Coinbase customer, if they were NOT too stupid and if they had read the text, could cancel such a LOCK.. at any time prior to Friday... which would certainly be the smarter (less dumber) thing to do.