Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[twiifm]

in all seriousness, shorts were in real danger last night, we all felt it, it was about to pop, magic fairy bear mother may not come to your rescue next time, cover your shorts, cover your shorts now!

or not

wtv

your choice.

It can breakout either way.  Experienced traders know this pattern.  This is where you reduce your position and wait for a breakout before confirming trend

[jaberwock]

china still bouncing off previous resistance, while stamps and bitfinex are well below it.
tonight we find out if china really is a leader.

You cannot see who leads on that plot.  Arbitragers apparently react in a few tens of seconds at most.  Even the plot with 1-minute interval is too coarse.

Bitcoin transfers takes way more than seconds. More when the network is busy because of big rise/fall/mr102 event that makes arbitrage profitable.


How can Bitcoin arbitragers take effect in tens of seconds?

[lyth0s]

china still bouncing off previous resistance, while stamps and bitfinex are well below it.
tonight we find out if china really is a leader.

You cannot see who leads on that plot.  Arbitragers apparently react in a few tens of seconds at most.  Even the plot with 1-minute interval is too coarse.

Bitcoin transfers takes way more than seconds. More when the network is busy because of big rise/fall/mr102 event that makes arbitrage profitable.


How can Bitcoin arbitragers take effect in tens of seconds?

Obviously the answer here is bots. Keep some fiat and some btc on each exchange but put it all together in one book in a spread sheet. Then arbitrage as you would normally with buys/sells on each individual exchange and at the end of the day if one of your exchange accounts needs more BTC or more fiat, THEN initiate the transfers.

[Newbie1022]

I just ran my trading test that has worked out perfectly this week (still, that's a small sample size). The test is this... for BTC trading I try to use the LTC markets as a signal since, given their lower price, there are greater trades. Then, I place a bet in the middle of the buy or sell price. Then, the bots drift away from what would be the profitable bet so as to undercut the trader's profit and/or dissuade them from that choice of action. Doing this, the bots have said that the next profit to be had is to the downside. Thus, I avoided going into that LTC trade and am now shorting BTC.

Is this a real jack--- way of handicapping? Yes. I fully acknowledge this. My dollar says we are going to break down, next.

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitcoin transfers takes way more than seconds. More when the network is busy because of big rise/fall/mr102 event that makes arbitrage profitable.  How can Bitcoin arbitragers take effect in tens of seconds?

Arbitrage does not require immediate transfer of bitcoins or money.  

An abitrager sees that the highest buy offer on Bitstamp is 480$, and  someone posted a sell offer on  Huobi at 475$.  He immediately buys on Huobi and sells on Bitstamp (not the same coins!), until the bids and asks uncross.  He has to be as quick as possible to beat other arbitragers.   Indeed he must be a robot, so he can react in seconds.

Thus, the delay between a price drop at Huobi and its echo at Bitstamp  is the time it takes for the arbitrager to see the new offer at Huobi and place the order at Bitstamp.

Actually I guess that arbitrage is done by the exchange owners, so it may have higher priority than ordinary clients.  

[Newbie1022]

Bitstamp below BTC-e... crash exceedingly imminent!

[jaberwock]

Bitstamp below BTC-e... crash exceedingly imminent!

Dafuq you talking? Right now Bitstamp is at the 480's and Btc-e at the 477's.

And it seems that the times where a $15 gap between bitstamp and btc-e were standart are gone.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Newbie1022]

Bitstamp below BTC-e... crash exceedingly imminent!

Dafuq you talking? Right now Bitstamp is at the 480's and Btc-e at the 477's.

And it seems that the times where a $15 gap between bitstamp and btc-e were standart are gone.

A while ago they were at 477 a piece with Stamp a few cents below. This is more folklore than logic, but whenever that happens a crash seems to happen within an hour or two thereof.

[lyth0s]

Bitstamp below BTC-e... crash exceedingly imminent!

Dafuq you talking? Right now Bitstamp is at the 480's and Btc-e at the 477's.

And it seems that the times where a $15 gap between bitstamp and btc-e were standart are gone.

A while ago they were at 477 a piece with Stamp a few cents below. This is more folklore than logic, but whenever that happens a crash seems to happen within an hour or two thereof.

Did you make bank off of your previous shorts?

[Newbie1022]

Bitstamp below BTC-e... crash exceedingly imminent!

Dafuq you talking? Right now Bitstamp is at the 480's and Btc-e at the 477's.

And it seems that the times where a $15 gap between bitstamp and btc-e were standart are gone.

A while ago they were at 477 a piece with Stamp a few cents below. This is more folklore than logic, but whenever that happens a crash seems to happen within an hour or two thereof.

Did you make bank off of your previous shorts?

No, I second guessed myself too much during the crash the last go around (the mid-August event) and made too many panic moves. Made a little. Sometimes made the right general call and still lost a little. That's just being honest.

I've limited myself to one trade per day and with narrow stop losses. I am up 20% for this week. So, one of two things is happening -- I am getting the hang of it OR I am dead and don't even know it yet. We'll see.

[Newbie1022]

Bitstamp below BTC-e... crash exceedingly imminent!

Dafuq you talking? Right now Bitstamp is at the 480's and Btc-e at the 477's.

And it seems that the times where a $15 gap between bitstamp and btc-e were standart are gone.

A while ago they were at 477 a piece with Stamp a few cents below. This is more folklore than logic, but whenever that happens a crash seems to happen within an hour or two thereof.

Did you make bank off of your previous shorts?

No, I second guessed myself too much during the crash the last go around (the mid-August event) and made too many panic moves. Made a little. Sometimes made the right general call and still lost a little. That's just being honest.

I've limited myself to one trade per day and with narrow stop losses. I am up 20% for this week. So, one of two things is happening -- I am getting the hang of it OR I am dead and don't even know it yet. We'll see.

Note: That one trade per day is a max limit... many days I don't even trade, now. But, before that, yes, I had a huge overuse/volume issue. Too excitable.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Sandia]

The only bullish sign that I can find is that shorts seem over-confident.
The normal number of shorts is around 5000 btc.  We are at nearly double that level, with a 711 coin increase in the last 24 hours.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cbeast]

[ubercool]

Last 4-5 hours, this thread really quiet, it's really abnormal.
Market not moving and people stopped talking here.

[Wekkel]

Very good. A logical conclusion for deflating a bubble. Meanwhile, Bitcoin development is steadily progressing.