Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[empowering]

Load of old balls hey Jorge?  http://youtu.be/rFEGFEGMDBc 

[1715409893]

1715409893

[1715409893]

1715409893

[1715409893]

1715409893

[JayJuanGee]

You need a better definition of fake.... In other words, even if what you are saying is true (that 90%of transactions are between the same owner) so fucking what?

Hey Jay, why so aggressive? Listen to this to relax.

Aggressive in what respect?

[empowering]

Huobi’s Fixed-Return Financial Product Sells Out in One Hour
http://www.coindesk.com/huobis-fixed-return-financial-product-sells-one-hour/

If they guarantee X% minimum return in CNY, that is simply Huobi borrowing CNY at a fixed interest rate. So?

If they guarantee X% minimum return in BTC, that is not "low risk" investment at all; and the deal will be most lucrative for Huobi if the BTC price drops.  

Anyway those 2000 BTC provided by the investors will be immediately sold for CNY to pay for the hardware expansion.

Of course Jorge it is all that simple...


http://youtu.be/rFEGFEGMDBc

[JayJuanGee]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day.  If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

One step nearer to getting out of bear market. If only there are more posts like this.

I kind of wonder:  Are these posts for real, or are they just faking it... ?

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

I have the same sense - even though many people may be looking at BTC prices dropping, they are also wondering a good entry point

[JayJuanGee]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

[JayJuanGee]

NICE!!!!!!!   

[Tzupy]

4h MACD suggests no drop soon (dissapointing ), but moving first towards 500$. After that, we'll see...

[Teppino]

Also, what is the point in wasting fees by transacting over wallets with the same owner? Unless you prove metcalfe's law wrong the only achievement of such waste is to keep the price (value) of bitcoin high, so i take it you mean it's a speculative manipulation.
Even so, with a true wallet-to-many scenario (OpenBazaar) the percentage you are proposing here are doomed to shift.

Two obvious reasons why someone would want to move bitcoins between wallets of his own are (1) tumbling and (2) hotwallet/coldwallet management.  Someone may also be (3) torture-testing wallet software.  (All the blockchain traffic could easily be created by a single person with a modest BTC capital.)

Last time I checked, very few transactions included fees.  Right now the mining network is financed by "printing" new bitcoins, to the tune of 10% of the existing bitcoins per year.  (That is, 10% yearly inflation, in the strict sense of the term...)  Since address creation and transactions are free, there is nothing to discourage fake blockchain traffic.

Fake traffic may include also (4) intentional attempt to inflate the transaction volume.  Right now, if the cost of the mining network were to be paid by fees rather than "inflation tax", the fee would have to be nearly 4% of the total transaction amount.  But if fees were charged then the "fake" volume would all but disappear.  If only 50% of the transactions are real e-payments, then the cost of processing one transaction would be 8% of its amount; if only 10% is real, the cost would be 40%.  Thus someone may be inflating the volume to hide this unpleasant fact.

Some blockchain traffic is also (5) people depositing and withdrawing BTC from exchanges and other services with individual accounts.  Although that traffic is not "fake" by my defintion, it is still sort of fake because the BTC on the exchange still belong to the client, logically. 

(Bitcoins changing accounts inside the exchanged do not generate blockchain traffic, but they are not real e-payments either, since there is no counterpart transfer of goods or services -- merely a swap of one currency for another.)

Metcalfe's law seems to hold when the quantities are plotted in logscale over the last 5 years.  However, the last year is compressed to a tiny area at the top right corner of that plot.  At that scale, a deviation of 90% would hardly be noticed, since it would span less than 20% of the vertical scale.  If the data is plotted only over the last year, the fit is not that good.  And, anyway, if the traffic had been 90% "fake" over the last 5 years, Metcalfe's law would hold just as well.

I disagree on so many points that the implications of debating every single one of them really discourages me. Sorry Jorge i feel that's not a good behaviour from me to pull back like that and i apologize for that

[empowering]

Tit

Russia 'to alter military strategy towards Nato'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29026623


Tat

Ukraine crisis: Nato chief Rasmussen announces new force

He warned that the alliance could not "afford to be naive" over Russia - a country which he said considers Nato "an adversary".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29015841

http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2005/04-april/e0421b.htm 2005


tête-à-tête

Ukraine crisis: Russia calls for immediate ceasefire


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29010655

[h3speros]

This what you have in mind? Or something more short-term?

No. The small bullish one on the right. I estimate we get a small bounce back to 490 - 500.

You came here straight from ryans thread to estimate this? =D And btw. that odas divergent is bullish.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[razorramon]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

[empowering]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

When did you buy in? and how did you lose money?  did you buy high and sell low? or get margin called? how exactly did you lose a lot of money?

[JorgeStolfi]

Good try, but I find that proof somewhat unconvincing.  Is that the best you can do?   

As for Huobi, if you find it hard to disprove that 90% of the blockchain traffic is "fake", maybe you can provide evidence that any of Huobi's volume is "fake", in the same sense (a trader selling to himself).

[JorgeStolfi]

I disagree on so many points that the implications of debating every single one of them really discourages me. Sorry Jorge i feel that's not a good behaviour from me to pull back like that and i apologize for that

Too bad, I would like to know what is wrong with them.  Do you disagree with the numbers?

The total transaction fees, for example, seem to have been stuck at 10--15 BTC/day (not kBTC!) since December, and are slowly decreasing in fact:
https://blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

[razorramon]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

When did you buy in? and how did you lose money?  did you buy high and sell low? or get margin called? how exactly did you lose a lot of money?

i don't see a point in giving especially you more ammo to shoot at me

[empowering]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

look at the history broader than 30 days .. also look at the history broader than the last 9 months.  Maybe also explain diversification and only investing your comfort level rather than investing either balls to the wall or expectations to get rich quickly?  Even though you may be a trader or others may want to attempt to get rich through trading, most people lose a lot of money through trading and a more sound dollar cost averaging system should be contemplated and employed.. in other words buying and holding.. and investing in small increments.

that's more or less what i always said...don't get me wrong with my bearishness...maybe a few percent and i'm bullish again...but right now after all the dumps and failed 'rallies' i am really disappointed...

short term i am really bearish, mid term stagnating at best, long term the chances are 30:70 against a bitcoin rise...

with that personal pov, the next time i meet some people to talk about bitcoins i will have to say that i lost a lot of money and maybe now is not a good entry point because more losses are expected

there really has to be a rise soon or mass market adoption will fail, cause everyone will consider bitcoin as too dangerous or will forget about it

i will hodl what is left but i will not consider buying more and i will explicitly make aware of the danger of losing all investments...i prefer that they say "why didn't you force me to buy" than "because of you i lost a shitload of money"

When did you buy in? and how did you lose money?  did you buy high and sell low? or get margin called? how exactly did you lose a lot of money?

i don't see a point in giving especially you more ammo to shoot at me

?...... I am merely asking for you to clarify your statement that you have lost money?

I am not sure how that is "ammo" to ask you to explain your statement in a way that people can understand that makes sense? other than a vague "I lost a lot of money" because that does not say much about Bitcoin on its own at all...

I am asking how you managed to accomplish losing money ?   was it buy high and sell low? or margin calls or bad trading? or are you sitting on unrealised losses, or are you talking hypothetical losses? (due to missing perfect hypothetical trades)

It makes a LOT of difference, and your answer could give context and substance to your "I lost a lot of money because Bitcoin" statement....

[oda.krell]

Good try, but I find that proof somewhat unconvincing.  Is that the best you can do?   

As for Huobi, if you find it hard to disprove that 90% of the blockchain traffic is "fake", maybe you can provide evidence that any of Huobi's volume is "fake", in the same sense (a trader selling to himself).

Try and find a quote where I call Chinese volume "fake". Should be difficult (or very far into the past, maybe).

I've been on record several times that I believe there is a qualitative difference between costly / human volume and zero fee / bot volume, so for several types of analysis that look at volume, I believe the zero fee / bot volume has to be discounted.

But you know this. And I know you don't buy this. And I'm okay with this

[adamstgBit]

Hey Adam...

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112419/canadian-employees-increasingly-preferring-bitcoins-over-dollars


http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/salaries-paid-in-bitcoin-a-growing-trend-in-canada-1.2752441

No hard numbers, of course.  (But who cares for numbers if there is a large colorful pic.)

that cool!

i wonder if the employers that offer your pay in BTC, buy the BTC ?  or   have a shit tone of BTC?  or both?

i'll have to read this one later thanks.

[razorramon]

more or less

25% buying high/hypothetical losses
25% bad trading

since it isn't just about the money the main problem is the loss of faith in the bitcoin market...

i even unignored fallling (and ignored again)

but i am only bearish since sunday...so with a lot of new shorts and a bit of stagnation some people will maybe get nervous and give the much needed momentum to the upside