Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[grappa_barricata]

Transactions can be zero-fee, guaranteed. It depend on how 'old' the coins are.

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[JayJuanGee]

  Let's say we get to 500, first, there champ.

1 BTC = 100,000 $ when

5-10 years-ish.. maybe closer to 10 years at the rate this seems to have been going, recently.

patronizing or what?     

Do you have a prediction, or merely a non-prediction?  Are you suggesting that BTC prices are going to stay below $500 for any significant period of time?  What is your prediction?  HELLO??   In sum:  I stick with my earlier comment, as referenced above.

[JayJuanGee]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day. If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

The whole of this comment is so stupid that it is NOT worth responding to in a detailed manner, and really the comment reeks of someone who is talking his/her book.  If you do NOT believe in bitcoin anymore, then why don't you just sell all of it, and just walk away with whatever fiat you have remaining.  GOOD BYE.  Instead, no you are likely going to continue to stay here and talk your bullshit until such point that you will say that you bought back in.... possibly with more coins.. but if you get left by the choo choo, that would be even better carma to reward you for your apparently deceitful presentation.

Regarding the bold session above, good luck doubling your coins every 90 days or guaranteeing such.  I am pretty sure that you would NOT put your money where your mouth is b/c if you were to make such a bet that you can double your BTC stash in 90 days, the odds are pretty great that you would lose such a bet.

2nd step of loss and grief: anger

Identify the anger?  Where is it?

We spotted you doing this, man.

You (the royal "we") must have mixed me up with some one else.

[JayJuanGee]

Fear not, Openbazaar is alive and kicking.
As i strongly believe price is correlated to number of transactions (which is different from plain adoption/number of wallets) i think in the near future (months) we will be able to see metcalfe's law applied to bitcoin in his newly born habitat.

Actually bitcoins are mostly held or traded intra exchange, neither of those is good for the health of the network, it's like a brain without neurotransmitters--->no thoughts-->mostly useless and easily manipulated.

More than 90% of the transaction volume (transaction count and total BTC output) on the blockchain is "fake" -- that is, between addresses with the same owner. 

Prove that this statement is wrong.

(Evidence that it is correct: the way it has changed with time for the past year.)

You need a better definition of fake.... In other words, even if what you are saying is true (that 90%of transactions are between the same owner) so fucking what?

[empowering]

[grappa_barricata]

You need a better definition of fake.... In other words, even if what you are saying is true (that 90%of transactions are between the same owner) so fucking what?

Hey Jay, why so aggressive? Listen to this to relax.

[empowering]

[empowering]

Huobi’s Fixed-Return Financial Product Sells Out in One Hour

http://www.coindesk.com/huobis-fixed-return-financial-product-sells-one-hour/

[empowering]

Antonopoulos Leaves Blockchain Security Role to Become Board Advisor

http://www.coindesk.com/antonopoulos-leaves-blockchain-security-role-become-board-advisor/

[empowering]

5 US States Poised to Promote Bitcoin-Friendly Regulation

http://www.coindesk.com/5-us-states-poised-promote-bitcoin-friendly-regulation/

[fonzie]

Wow shorts went up to 9250BTC pretty fast, will history repeat itself? Last time they were nice extra fuel when we broke out from 430$.

Also the chinese seem to get back more heavy in shorting business... which could be one of many reasons for the increased selling pressure.

"Huobi reports that BitVC has seen new user growth of around 20% per month since launch, and it now accounts for 18% of all Huobi bitcoin trading and 28% of litecoin trading."

Edit: gotmilk_ was faster  

[empowering]

Hey Adam...

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112419/canadian-employees-increasingly-preferring-bitcoins-over-dollars


http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/salaries-paid-in-bitcoin-a-growing-trend-in-canada-1.2752441

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[findftp]

This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.

I think we are losing adoption NOW.  User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment.  I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore.  This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.)

Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero.  As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day.  If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days.  The game is too easy.  

Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded.  If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem.  And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important.

I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500.  Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again.  How many of the big guys had to help to break through?  I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book.

Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble.  It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book.  IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk.  They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time .

I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users.  I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull.  I am full bear now.  I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon.  The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices.  Believe them.

One step nearer to getting out of bear market. If only there are more posts like this.

I kind of wonder:  Are these posts for real, or are they just faking it... ?

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

[JorgeStolfi]

Also, what is the point in wasting fees by transacting over wallets with the same owner? Unless you prove metcalfe's law wrong the only achievement of such waste is to keep the price (value) of bitcoin high, so i take it you mean it's a speculative manipulation.
Even so, with a true wallet-to-many scenario (OpenBazaar) the percentage you are proposing here are doomed to shift.

Two obvious reasons why someone would want to move bitcoins between wallets of his own are (1) tumbling and (2) hotwallet/coldwallet management.  Someone may also be (3) torture-testing wallet software.  (All the blockchain traffic could easily be created by a single person with a modest BTC capital.)

Last time I checked, very few transactions included fees.  Right now the mining network is financed by "printing" new bitcoins, to the tune of 10% of the existing bitcoins per year.  (That is, 10% yearly inflation, in the strict sense of the term...)  Since address creation and transactions are free, there is nothing to discourage fake blockchain traffic.

Fake traffic may include also (4) intentional attempt to inflate the transaction volume.  Right now, if the cost of the mining network were to be paid by fees rather than "inflation tax", the fee would have to be nearly 4% of the total transaction amount.  But if fees were charged then the "fake" volume would all but disappear.  If only 50% of the transactions are real e-payments, then the cost of processing one transaction would be 8% of its amount; if only 10% is real, the cost would be 40%.  Thus someone may be inflating the volume to hide this unpleasant fact.

Some blockchain traffic is also (5) people depositing and withdrawing BTC from exchanges and other services with individual accounts.  Although that traffic is not "fake" by my defintion, it is still sort of fake because the BTC on the exchange still belong to the client, logically. 

(Bitcoins changing accounts inside the exchanged do not generate blockchain traffic, but they are not real e-payments either, since there is no counterpart transfer of goods or services -- merely a swap of one currency for another.)

Metcalfe's law seems to hold when the quantities are plotted in logscale over the last 5 years.  However, the last year is compressed to a tiny area at the top right corner of that plot.  At that scale, a deviation of 90% would hardly be noticed, since it would span less than 20% of the vertical scale.  If the data is plotted only over the last year, the fit is not that good.  And, anyway, if the traffic had been 90% "fake" over the last 5 years, Metcalfe's law would hold just as well.

[NotLambchop]

... going to continue to put upward BTC price pressures because they are going to want to get their money back and they are going to want to make a hefty profit, too.

The miners want the most they could get for their coin, regardless of how badly they need the money or what they paid for their gear.  The buyers want to pay the least for their coin, again regardless of all that stuff.  Absolutely no more pressure if the miners are mining at a loss.
A pawn shop won't pay you more for your wedding ring just because you *really* need the money.  It's likely to pay you less.

I think his point was that any miner who pays more for the kit than will allow for a positive ROI is obviously not under pressure to sell.  They are happy to pay above market for future bitcoin. They are clearly not requiring a positive return, so they must be finding utility in other factors.  They are clearly very interested in acquiring bitcoin, and there is no reason to think they will sell them, unless perhaps to introduce others to their hobby.

Miners who pay more for their gear than they make with that gear are [most likely] doing so because they miscalculated the rate of the difficulty increase, not because "they are clearly not requiring a positive return."  Assuming that [they don't need positive return] is as unreasonable as assuming that traders who have bought BTC when it was trading @$1k don't need a positive return.  Nonsense.  Both did what they did because mistake, because couldn't the future, etc. etc--not because they don't care about profits.

Sure, it is possible that there are true hobby traders and hobby miners who don't mind losing money, but what makes you believe that those aren't outliers who could safely be ignored?

Assuming a rational (for profit) miner who won't break even due to miscalculation paints us a pretty nasty picture:  He must mine with his gear, which requires power/hosting/time.  These things cost money (e.g. $$$), which have to come from somewhere.
Now our miner needs to sell his BTC @whatever the price the market offers, just like our strungout d00d has to accept whatever price the pawnshop offers for his wedding ring.  Mind you, strungout_d00d is VERY interested in money, but this only puts him at a disadvantage.

In the alternative, if our miner is truly that interested in Bitcoin [and is rational], he would not spend more bitcoin to buy less bitcoin (buy a miner that doesn't ROI).  A rational actor would wish to maximise his BTC (buy & hold).

[razorramon]

You're not alone. I also feel these stories are manufactured. It is not what I experience with other people.
Sure, some of them are in doubt, but others are at the brink of buying their first bitcoin because of my enthusiastic talk about it.

can you explain me how to explain the long decline to them? -20% in the last 30 days are not very enthusiastic...

+5% shorts in 24 hours could be an opportunity and the much needed momentum upwards...

[oda.krell]

[JorgeStolfi]

Huobi’s Fixed-Return Financial Product Sells Out in One Hour
http://www.coindesk.com/huobis-fixed-return-financial-product-sells-one-hour/

If they guarantee X% minimum return in CNY, that is simply Huobi borrowing CNY at a fixed interest rate. So?

If they guarantee X% minimum return in BTC, that is not "low risk" investment at all; and the deal will be most lucrative for Huobi if the BTC price drops. 

Anyway those 2000 BTC provided by the investors will be immediately sold for CNY to pay for the hardware expansion.

[JorgeStolfi]

Hey Adam...

http://cointelegraph.com/news/112419/canadian-employees-increasingly-preferring-bitcoins-over-dollars


http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/salaries-paid-in-bitcoin-a-growing-trend-in-canada-1.2752441

No hard numbers, of course.  (But who cares for numbers if there is a large colorful pic.)