Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Ultros]

Capistustation!

[inca]

Capistustation!

Lol.

[bittown]

Capistustation!

I would say "frustration"

[molecular]

I'm quite amazed where these huge sellers get their coins from.

Remember those 850.000 bitcoins "lost" on the MtGox? Somebody has the private keys of those BTC. Ask yourself what would you do if that was you. Would you hold all of them, or would you convert some to the fiat?

I would be wary of exchanges. If you look at Stamp, for over a month, you see huge sell walls placed at intervals. And to withdraw that much of fiat, the exchange would require your identity and bank account. So, the key person to know why the huge btc quantity of sell limit order is the exchange owner.

Many people are speculating why the market has been so bearish. If the bitcoin news websites are smart, they would bug the exchange owners for answers. Think about it, all we can see are just the orders and transactions. The exchange owners are able to see who are placing these orders and making these huge transactions.

The exchange owners are in the perfect position to make such manipulations. They have their own funds, and I think nothing stop them from doing such things.

I would not be surprised if they are behind the recent moves.

They don't even need real funds for that.

[Sandia]

If anyone is interested, you can read the posts for the last x days and:
- find a guy with a LOT of coins (based on account age and his post history)
- with far too high a percentage of his wealth invested (based on magnitude of attitude change when the market moves)
- with far too high a percentage of his wealth invested in shorts (based on direction of attitude change)

Hint: he will always argue that manipulation is natural market action, he will magnify every drop or piece of semi-bad news, and get very, very upset when the market moves against him.  Did I mention hodl is stupid for newbies?  They should be trading with the whales!

It is safe to say that whales ARE in this thread and the sentiment in this thread influences price.  I will definitely say that he is not today's wall guy (at least on Bfx; he might be on Stamp), but he is probably 2k or more of shorts.

Stay happy, (name withheld)!  I pray you drive btc into the ground so you can lose far more than the rest of us!  Those dreams of 50M in hookers and blow will disappear; you really should have settled for 10M. (I am 100% fiat, so let's drop, (name withheld)!)

PS: Figure it out for yourselves.
PPS: 96% serious.

[qwk]

Capistustation!

I would say "frustration"

Final Cryptofrustlation.

[findftp]

I was ready for the choo choo but today's value is dropping again.

whales are currently investing in the altcoins.
Noobs see the rise and will buy them at the top because bitcoin is falling.
Once noobs are pushing the price of alts to the moon, whales will sell the alts for bitcoin and the result is bitcoin pump.
Noobs see bitcoin in stratosphere and will sell their expensive alts and exchange them for expensive bitcoin.
Rinse, repeat in a year.

[wachtwoord]

If anyone is interested, you can read the posts for the last x days and:
- find a guy with a LOT of coins (based on account age and his post history)
- with far too high a percentage of his wealth invested (based on magnitude of attitude change when the market moves)
- with far too high a percentage of his wealth invested in shorts (based on direction of attitude change)

Hint: he will always argue that manipulation is natural market action, he will magnify every drop or piece of semi-bad news, and get very, very upset when the market moves against him.  Did I mention hodl is stupid for newbies?  They should be trading with the whales!

It is safe to say that whales ARE in this thread and the sentiment in this thread influences price.  I will definitely say that he is not today's wall guy (at least on Bfx; he might be on Stamp), but he is probably 2k or more of shorts.

Stay happy, (name withheld)!  I pray you drive btc into the ground so you can lose far more than the rest of us!  Those dreams of 50M in hookers and blow will disappear; you really should have settled for 10M. (I am 100% fiat, so let's drop, (name withheld)!)

PS: Figure it out for yourselves.
PPS: 96% serious.

You think most people that hold a lot of coins are short? At (or near) the bottom? Are you serious?

Large holders don't need to do much except hold and wait. They themselves are their largest vulnerability.

[spooderman]

Ok the people who said, "2014 will be shit" were right.

Of course BTC isn't done, it's gonna blow, but it's gonna do it in it's own time. I suggest, as always, that you hodl.

[amit123]

I was ready for the choo choo but today's value is dropping again.

I'm waiting for that from quite a while now..! but it hasn't happened yet . Don't know how long we have to wait..!

[wachtwoord]

Ok the people who said, "2014 will be shit" were right.

Of course BTC isn't done, it's gonna blow, but it's gonna do it in it's own time. I suggest, as always, that you hodl.

There's 3.5 month left. We can go to the moon and come back again in that time

[whysosweet]

Ok the people who said, "2014 will be shit" were right.

Of course BTC isn't done, it's gonna blow, but it's gonna do it in it's own time. I suggest, as always, that you hodl.

There's 3.5 month left. We can go to the moon and come back again in that time

I really hope it will happen, can't wait to see over $1000 values.

[findftp]

Ok the people who said, "2014 will be shit" were right.

Of course BTC isn't done, it's gonna blow, but it's gonna do it in it's own time. I suggest, as always, that you hodl.

There's 3.5 month left. We can go to the moon and come back again in that time

According to Harvey Organ, the monetary game will be over before january 2015
Although they are talking about gold and silver, bitcoin is playing the same game. We just don't know who's gonna win.
Will it be a barbaric relic?
Or can the world postpone the barbaric relic and function with bitcoin as well.
(which gives big entities the time to buy all the gold and silver again before they pull the crypto plug)

[jeezy]

Ok the people who said, "2014 will be shit" were right.

Of course BTC isn't done, it's gonna blow, but it's gonna do it in it's own time. I suggest, as always, that you hodl.

There's 3.5 month left. We can go to the moon and come back again in that time

Won't happen. Will spike to 600-700 area and then go back until new moon around March 2015.

[tarmi]

...
I'm one of many miners not selling at a loss but did have to reduce hash rate to stay profitable...

When you say "profitable," do you mean to say it costs you less in electricity to mine a coin than you could get for it at the current exchange rate?  If so, what do you mean by "not selling at a loss"?

yes, he is saying that it is still cheaper to mine.

not for too long, because he is undervolting/underclocking his gear and squeezing it. but only because he is paying electricity 0.13 $/kWh.

there are a lot of places on earth with cheap 0.06 $/kWh.

[grappa_barricata]

[whysosweet]

http://s30.postimg.org/mvd713zkx/Untitled.jpg

Is this a new meme, sounds great

[Moria843]

in terms of hash rate we're probably seeing the change over from equipment that can no longer run efficiently, but doesn't mean a new wave of new tech doesn't come on line to replace in soon enough...interesting idea to imagine a new mining company selling at loss to hurt other miners pretty risky lol ... seems like another point where speculation over getting into mining is pretty obvious.

I am still running my bitfury gear, 1 year old, and I am still earning, thanks to cheap electricity.

But I think asic bubble is nearing its end, and I think there will be no more crazy difficulty jumps. miners are much more aware of potential risks these days.


asic bubble deflating = price crashing

I'm one of many miners not selling at a loss but did have to reduce hash rate to stay profitable. I had to lower the voltage to each ASIC on the old mining rigs, which forced reducing the hash rate but increased efficiency. Went from an efficiency of 2.5 J/GH to 1.16 J/GH. As a comparison, the newer most modern miners are 0.78 J/GH. My electricity cost is $0.13/kWh. At the current BTC value and difficulty I can only make a profit by slowing down the old miners to make them more effecient. So, I'm not mining as many coins, but still making a profit.

What if the price keeps dropping to say... $400? What would be your response?

I make that decision monthly when I get my power bill. I have a watt-hr meter tracking energy used by miners. When I get the bill, I calculate the BTC mined over the same period covered by the bill. I calculate the incoming revenue from amount of BTC mined based on it's current value. From that I subtract the electricity cost to determine the profit or loss (old miners are all paid off and have ROI'd). As long as there is a profit I will continue mining. Current cost to mine for me is about $275/BTC. I will shut down if ratio becomes unprofitable due to low BTC value or too high/BTC energy cost.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[grappa_barricata]

I make that decision monthly when I get my power bill. I have a watt-hr meter tracking energy used by miners. When I get the bill, I calculate the BTC mined over the same period covered by the bill. I calculate the incoming revenue from amount of BTC mined based on it's current value. From that I subtract the electricity cost to determine the profit or loss (old miners are all paid off and have ROI'd). As long as there is a profit I will continue mining. Current cost to mine for me is about $275/BTC. I will shut down if ratio becomes unprofitable due to low BTC value or too high/BTC energy cost.

Forgive me if i'm wrong, but if difficulty keep rising at these rates, your cost per-BTC will be like 400$ in 30 days, and like 650$ in 60 days (you will be producing less BTC at the same expense).
And you are in a vantage position because your hw has paid itself already, and you have relatively cheap electricity.