Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bitcopia]

Second largest addition of hashing power in a day.

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

The hash rate blows my mind at 275,000,000 GH/s. Litecoin's hash rate is at just under 1,000,000 MH/s equaling roughly 1/275,000 of the bitcoin hash rate. Why is the price discrepancy not greater? Wouldn't it be more profitable to mine LTC and trade it for bitcoin? What am I missing here?

Comparing the hashrate of SHA256 and Scrypt is pointless. You need to compare the cost of generating the hashrate.

Ah thanks. That's what I was missing. I forgot LTC is Scrypt.

[JayJuanGee]

JJG, maybe if you do a thought exercise in some extremes, it would help clarify.

If your potential double down comes in January 2015, you definitely have some time to think about it.  What will you think if BTC is $260 at that time?  You'll be farther underwater.  Will you think, cool, this is a REAL chance to bring my cost average WAY down?  Or will you be even more apprehensive to be that far underwater?

What if BTC is at $660 at that point?  You'll be up by that time, probably more than 10%.  Will you think that the price is high enough that you won't want to up the ante?  Or be emboldened by the fact that you were right, but the timing was just a shade off?

We've chatted about this a tiny bit via PM and as I recall you're close to my age.  I do think age plays some factor in how aggressive you'd want to be.  As I've dabbled in alts, especially, I'm reminded frequently how few safeguards there are in this market.  There is exchange risk, with Mt. Gox being the obvious example, but not the only one.  There is the risk of a hack or a code failure.  There is even some user risk involved.  

For me, if I'm right about where I think bitcoin is going, being right with 10% of my portfolio will make enough of a difference for me that I'll consider it a huge win.  I'm still well under that number and looking to find good entry points.  (I bought some today, as well!)  Hard to imagine that I'd go much over 10% without new information that dramatically impacts other USD investments.  I'm still invested in the stock market and those investments are doing very well, so there is no real urgency to press this one--especially given the systematic risks.

Of course, YMMV.  If we're no longer in a big downtrend, you might look to double up for a limited period of time to make up some ground, then drop back to 10%.  Or there may be new fundamental news about adoption that affects your view of BTC or maybe rising interest rates that may hurt your stock portfolio...or maybe the dollar starts a significant slide that makes you want to be more in BTC.

I think you'd want to avoid pushing towards BTC just for the sake of making up for any current loss.  That's dangerous, imo.

I think that you bring up a lot of good points. 

I am keeping the double down option in mind, but it is NOT necessarily to make up for any current loss - it would be for the sake of attempting to diversify further out of the dollar.

The assets that I would use would come from stock index funds, so maybe any decision that I make would be based on a combination of factors including how well the stock market is doing.  Currently the stock market is doing pretty well and BTC seems like a good investment (I mean undervalued), so in that regard, currently may be a decent time to withdraw from the stock market and to move those funds into BTC. 

However, I am inclined towards doing this in early 2015 for tax purposes - even though one of the set of assets that i have, I may want to roll into a self-directed IRA (which would be to preserve its tax deferral status), and I suppose that I could do that at any time, so long as I knew mechanically how to accomplish it by setting up the proper kind of funds and separation of the funds and to take that money from my tax deferred retirement funds and to directly place them into a BTC investment fund.. then that BTC investment would remain tax deferred, until I would begin my retirement withdrawals (and they would be taxed at that time).

[adamstgBit]

ah fuck this

* cutting looses *

rats bailing ship!!!! 

 

if we see $150 again i'll buy a bunch "out of pocket" ;-) haha

I bought some today at $445.  I have been running low on fiat for the last couple of months now, because I believe that I got a bit too excited in early June when the weekly MACD turned Green around $600-ish, and at that time, it seemed to me that BTC prices were gearing up to head for the moon... ... so I prepared accordingly, and stocked up on what I considered to be a pretty good chunk of BTC.

At that point, I made an executive decision to approximately double my BTC holdings....

Anyhow over the next several weeks (going on two months worth of spreading out my big buys) I bought quite a few BTC - let's just say that I bought more than 50 BTC in the upper $500s to lower $600s price range; however, you all likely realize that there can be some regret (and second guessing) there b/c upon reflection, I see that I could have purchased 15 to 20BTC more with the same quantity of dollars, had I known that the price was going down into this mid-$400s range, rather than going up (as I had anticipated).. and my average price per BTC would have been a lot lower - probably in the upper $400s rather than currently hovering at $602 (including transaction fees)...

 Sometimes, I believe that it is easy to get hyped up about this BTC investment thing-a-ma-jiggy, and even though I am NOT too worried yet, I continue to feel the need to throw more dollars at what appears to be this downward trending asset.. as my new fiat come to my availability...

Currently, I am thinking that maybe my next buying point will be in the upper $420s (if prices go that low in the coming weeks) - otherwise, I will just buy BTC at whatever price point we are at (so long as I am continuing to bring down my average price per BTC) as more fiat comes available to me.

Further I have been considering taking some fiat from some of my other funds - either late 2014 or early 2015... to possibly double down again... but with these declining prices, it becomes easy to get nervous about whether I am going to overexpose myself in the BTC category.. currently, BTC remains less than 10% of my quasi-liquid investment assets.. but it still feels a little uncomfortable when currently my BTC holdings are hovering approximately 26% in the red  (I realize that there are some people who are further in the red than me and also more over exposed than me).

greed you're doing it right! you should lay off the bitcoin... you're clearly addicted. seriously, it feels like you put in too much money here.... your accumulation strategy needs to be based on hope rather than greed, price can go to 400, 300, 200 and yes even 100, but if mexico backs its paper currency with digital money, that means MOON BABY. so HOPE for these prices to come by, and dont be all greedy trying to catch bottoms.
honestly i think you did good, buying in whilst its crashing, gox dying chain ban, took balls to buy during these events, i dont see price going back to these lows, and is why i find these 450 prices WeRiD. i've been itching to send more fiat since i ran out of it.... should i send 5K or 10K, fuck i dont know....

EVERYONE CUT YOUR LOOOSE!!!!!!!!!

[JayJuanGee]

Anyone knows loaded's stance on bitcoin these days?

I know he had a shit load of coins, probably around 80k

Must feel pretty shitty to lose all that money when price is going down lol. unless he sold

He bought the majority of his coins WELL below these prices.

40K of them are still in one address, that I think he still owns, unless he sold them all at once 11 months ago before the bubble.

https://blockchain.info/address/14j6jLececs66ZQ8ew6vTFNiEn2NupacWJ

He only verified his ownership of the 40k in that address and if they're still in the same address then he must still own them. He was also managing another 160k for other people. Would be interesting to hear from him again

He disappeared since mtgox's collapse, which "ruined his weekend". He did log-in once in June but said nothing. Actually, I suspect he's among us, posting with a different name.

Anyway, I'd be nice to here from him again. Not for any investment advice, just want to know he's okay after the mtgox mess

Hello.

'ello 'ello

How's the "briefcases stuffed with cash" lifestyle treating you?

Not well. Too much whisky.

I am NOT a prude when it comes to alcohol consumption because I like to enjoy some once in a while, but if a person has a lot of dough, whether in the form of BTC or cash or in other forms, wouldn't the person want to travel and eat good food and engage in other fun energy creating activities that will preserve his/her health and longevity.

I mean, really, we do NOT have very much time on this ball floating in space, and even if we have a lot of money, (which I consider anything about 10 million to be a lot of money), if we screw up our health with the consumption of liquor (or enjoying other life-shortening activities), then that is NOT going to do us much good in being able to enjoy ourselves - b/c maybe we would just be spending time in hospitals or low-energy activities or something like that?  I mean even going out dancing and picking up girls does NOT have to require drinking, although sometimes it can be helpful to have some drinks in order to facilitate the right mood.

[Stevenrm87]

Second largest addition of hashing power in a day.

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=180days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

The hash rate blows my mind at 275,000,000 GH/s. Litecoin's hash rate is at just under 1,000,000 MH/s equaling roughly 1/275,000 of the bitcoin hash rate. Why is the price discrepancy not greater? Wouldn't it be more profitable to mine LTC and trade it for bitcoin? What am I missing here?

Comparing the hashrate of SHA256 and Scrypt is pointless. You need to compare the cost of generating the hashrate.

1,000,000 MH/s for Litecoin is basically like the 1 Petahash milestone for bitcoin.

[adamstgBit]

price is now 451. F@!*()$&)(!@#*



just say'n

[JayJuanGee]

ah fuck this

* cutting looses *

rats bailing ship!!!!  

 

if we see $150 again i'll buy a bunch "out of pocket" ;-) haha

I bought some today at $445.  I have been running low on fiat for the last couple of months now, because I believe that I got a bit too excited in early June when the weekly MACD turned Green around $600-ish, and at that time, it seemed to me that BTC prices were gearing up to head for the moon... ... so I prepared accordingly, and stocked up on what I considered to be a pretty good chunk of BTC.

At that point, I made an executive decision to approximately double my BTC holdings....

Anyhow over the next several weeks (going on two months worth of spreading out my big buys) I bought quite a few BTC - let's just say that I bought more than 50 BTC in the upper $500s to lower $600s price range; however, you all likely realize that there can be some regret (and second guessing) there b/c upon reflection, I see that I could have purchased 15 to 20BTC more with the same quantity of dollars, had I known that the price was going down into this mid-$400s range, rather than going up (as I had anticipated).. and my average price per BTC would have been a lot lower - probably in the upper $400s rather than currently hovering at $602 (including transaction fees)...

 Sometimes, I believe that it is easy to get hyped up about this BTC investment thing-a-ma-jiggy, and even though I am NOT too worried yet, I continue to feel the need to throw more dollars at what appears to be this downward trending asset.. as my new fiat come to my availability...

Currently, I am thinking that maybe my next buying point will be in the upper $420s (if prices go that low in the coming weeks) - otherwise, I will just buy BTC at whatever price point we are at (so long as I am continuing to bring down my average price per BTC) as more fiat comes available to me.

Further I have been considering taking some fiat from some of my other funds - either late 2014 or early 2015... to possibly double down again... but with these declining prices, it becomes easy to get nervous about whether I am going to overexpose myself in the BTC category.. currently, BTC remains less than 10% of my quasi-liquid investment assets.. but it still feels a little uncomfortable when currently my BTC holdings are hovering approximately 26% in the red  (I realize that there are some people who are further in the red than me and also more over exposed than me).

greed you're doing it right! you should lay off the bitcoin... you're clearly addicted. seriously, it feels like you put in too much money here.... your accumulation strategy needs to be based on hope rather than greed, price can go to 400, 300, 200 and yes even 100, but if mexico backs its paper currency with digital money, that means MOON BABY. so HOPE for these prices to come by, and dont be all greedy trying to catch bottoms.
honestly i think you did good, buying in whilst its crashing, gox dying chain ban, took balls to buy during these events, i dont see price going back to these lows, and is why i find these 450 prices WeRiD. i've been itching to send more fiat since i ran out of it.... should i send 5K or 10K, fuck i dont know....

EVERYONE CUT YOUR LOOOSE!!!!!!!!!

Probably, I agree with at least three of your points.. probably even more.. oh fuck it, I agree with you 93%... O.k I said it.

1) no body should get too greedy!

2) BTC prices could go down further to who the fuck knows where?

3) it is good to accumulate, even though some people may consider accumulation to be greedy and foggy thinking.

4) no one (except for some jerk whales) can figure out why BTC prices are going down rather than up with all the good news about BTC adoption, liquidation possibilities, powerful hash rate, various BTC infrastructure developments, failure of an Alt coin to really make any dent into the total crypto market cap (BTC continues to gain percentage) etc...
,
5) if one runs out of money, should s/he send an additional $5k or $10k or some other amount, even if s/he has no money?

6) Cut Your Loose!!!!!   in other words CYLMF!!!!


And

7) My name is JayJuanGee, and I am a BTC addict  

[spooderman]

only 21 million people can have one bitcoin at any one time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

[hyphymikey]

Anyone knows loaded's stance on bitcoin these days?

I know he had a shit load of coins, probably around 80k

Must feel pretty shitty to lose all that money when price is going down lol. unless he sold

He bought the majority of his coins WELL below these prices.

40K of them are still in one address, that I think he still owns, unless he sold them all at once 11 months ago before the bubble.

https://blockchain.info/address/14j6jLececs66ZQ8ew6vTFNiEn2NupacWJ

He only verified his ownership of the 40k in that address and if they're still in the same address then he must still own them. He was also managing another 160k for other people. Would be interesting to hear from him again

He disappeared since mtgox's collapse, which "ruined his weekend". He did log-in once in June but said nothing. Actually, I suspect he's among us, posting with a different name.

Anyway, I'd be nice to here from him again. Not for any investment advice, just want to know he's okay after the mtgox mess

Hello.

Glad to see you're still "around"

[Davyd05]

if I didn't panic back when the goxxin occurred why would I or we now. But sure would've been smart to buy in that 330 zones

[JayJuanGee]

Part of the reason that I like the expression "Cut Your Loose" is because of the at least double meaning..  and the fact that it is versatile :  can be used as a bear chant or a bull chant... hehehehe..


So in other words:

Cut Your Loose!!!!!!!

[adamstgBit]

if I didn't panic back when the goxxin occurred why would I or we now. But sure would've been smart to buy in that 330 zones

buying in when everyone thinks its going to crash and burn to 0, only way to do it.

[adamstgBit]

oh shit 1 am

BYE!

[Raystonn]

What?  Buy at 1am?  Ok...

[WoopDeBoop]

I bought 100+ in 2012 and spent them on drugs.

I bought 100 for £6k in 2013 and sold in december for just under £60k

i've been buying back in this year, my average buy price is just over £300, so right now i'm down 10% or so.

I do not yet have 100 btc again. I bought another 3 in the last 2 days though.

I think 2014 is the year of bitcoin, unless you're a fool who thinks only in fiat.

Look at the infrastructure being built, that is the value, not some £ symbol.

[Torque]

only 21 million people can have one bitcoin at any one time.

I keep reducing that number every single month.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Children, what is going on? Why BTC is going down again?

Perhaps it was that tweet that @Walsoraj posted yesterday, about a famous Chinese investor declaring a large investment in Ripple. (Unless it was a hoax...)  THAT could have an impact on the outlook of the Chinese traders.