Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[N12]

ShroomsKit is such a fudster.

So are you going to ban him too and shamelessly attempt to extort money like you did with the other bears? Must really upset you that they were all right.

Damn, first the permabulls flame me for not banning everyone they see as trolls (even accusing me of being one), now the permabears flame me for banning trolls.

[1715589593]

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[1715589593]

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[ShroomsKit]

Waitign for noobs to come say.. what happened, wats the news why down? Thats when I buy.

This happened so many times since 1200. So how much did you buy?

[hodlmybtc]

Waitign for noobs to come say.. what happened, wats the news why down? Thats when I buy.

It's already happening, look at the Speculation subforum.

BUYING TIME!

[Torque]

I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!

I truly think we're fucked if we cross that point. It simply shouldn't go that low if Bitcoin is healthy. If we cross it then there is something seriously wrong and there will be a good chance it won't go up anymore.

Actually, I would look at it differently.  If we go that low, and people really do start cashing out at a major loss, then we're looking at another 2+ years of slow sideways before even getting near the last ATH.  Because no matter how revolutionary bitcoin may be, the Average Joe just doesn't care enough to continue to lose money.  Period.  Even the average bitcoin enthusiast expects SOME level of growth.

[adamstgBit]

obvious bottom less pit, is obvious.

[ImI]

Looking backwards i think the Goxdesaster layed the ground for the ongoing downtrend.

Talked to interested noobs about Bitcoin one day, they all were initially interested and some even had 50k+$ to invest in Bitcoin.
But none of them wanted to transfer any money to any obscure easteuropean exchange just to see his coins/money gone the next day.

That's basically a big underlying problem. No trustable, big and known exchange.

[scarsbergholden]

I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!

I truly think we're fucked if we cross that point. It simply shouldn't go that low if Bitcoin is healthy. If we cross it then there is something seriously wrong and there will be a good chance it won't go up anymore.

If we go below, I hope I'll get to buy some of your coins.

Fucked? Hehe. $350 is a good buy, there should be some upside to trade off that. But I think the down trend could continue and soon enough we'll find ourselves wondering if we'll be truly fucked if/when $260 breaks. That'll probably break, panicky buttcoiners will panic sell the bottom and then maybe we can have us a rally.

[wayshegoes]

It's as if people realise they've made enough from speculating on BTC and are exiting the market with a profit. The speculatory value of BTC is dead. It never needed to cost thousands of dollars to be functional or useful. People are slowly realising that.

[adamstgBit]

I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!

I truly think we're fucked if we cross that point. It simply shouldn't go that low if Bitcoin is healthy. If we cross it then there is something seriously wrong and there will be a good chance it won't go up anymore.

Actually, I would look at it differently.  If we go that low, and people really do start cashing out at a major loss, then we're looking at another 2+ years before even getting near the last ATH.  Because no matter how revolutionary bitcoin may be, the Average Joe just doesn't care enough to continue to lose money.  Period.

we're playing hot potato with ourselves.

[Erdogan]

About this risk / reward thing. It only correlates if the market perceives the risk correctly. Currently, this market perception is wrong, IMHO. The risk of going to zero, or the risk of a fatal flaw is small, I think. The consequence of this is that buy and hold is the winning strategy. It is winning as long as the market does not agree with me.

When the market eventually comes to the same conclusion, it is just sound money, which is also good.

[scarsbergholden]

That's basically a big underlying problem. No trustable, big and known exchange.

Totally. I loathe keeping so much funds spread across these exchanges. I can't trust a damn one. But bitcoin is also a horrible store of value. So.....

[FloridaBear]

420 is an interesting spot. That was the low on 5/5, which was about a 62% retrace of the first push up off the 339 low on 4/10 up to 683. So we are retesting that here.

It was very telling that we couldn't put in a new high above 683 in July; instead we trended sideways until we broke the second pullback's low of 538. Bottom line, if we break 420, then I think we are heading to retest 340. I'm thinking the most likely scenario is to grind down to 260, which was the April 2013 high. A nice capitulation there would set the stage for a new (real) bull market--the last runup to 1100+ was solely driven by the Mt. Gox "hacker" bot debacle (very intersting articles floating around on this).

Another aspect of this decline is that while it has been fairly big today, there just isn't much volume. That's not a sign of a good bottom. We probably need a 50000+ volume day to see capitulation. If fear starts ramping up, we may see 340 in a couple high-volume days. If not, we may bounce here for a few weeks and then head lower. But this doesn't feel like a low yet.

Just FYI, I've traded S&P futures for years and have watched that market daily for 15+ years.

[ensurance982]

I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!

And why would that be? You probably would have said the same in 2011 about $4.

Because going down about 80% is generally a very very bad sign about effectively anything tradable. If nothing else, it will send a terrible signal to people watching Bitcoin.

[N12]

I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!

And why would that be? You probably would have said the same in 2011 about $4.

Because going down about 80% is generally a very very bad sign about effectively anything tradable. If nothing else, it will send a terrible signal to people watching Bitcoin.

~94% drawdown in 2011.

[esse83]

Goods news is that gox victims can soon buy back all their coins  

[wayshegoes]

I love all the bullshit TA in here. These people actually think they know what's going on. There's no reason BTC couldn't drop to $250 or lower, but when it happens they'll say they predicted it all along!

[keithers]

what is the reasoning behind all the panic today?  at what prices are you guys scooping up more?   I got some at $450 yesterday, but I will pull my cash out again if we dip much further...

[scarsbergholden]

I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!

I truly think we're fucked if we cross that point. It simply shouldn't go that low if Bitcoin is healthy. If we cross it then there is something seriously wrong and there will be a good chance it won't go up anymore.

Actually, I would look at it differently.  If we go that low, and people really do start cashing out at a major loss, then we're looking at another 2+ years before even getting near the last ATH.  Because no matter how revolutionary bitcoin may be, the Average Joe just doesn't care enough to continue to lose money.  Period.

we're playing hot potato with ourselves.

This whole year IMO has been traders sloshing funds back and forth, trading with one another, with little new money entering.

Annnd BTCE is back retesting 400.

[akujin]

419 

[Torque]

I guess we're now re-testing a very very long term support line. This is worrying! If we break below $350 - I don't like this saying at all usually - we're doomed!

And why would that be? You probably would have said the same in 2011 about $4.

Because going down about 80% is generally a very very bad sign about effectively anything tradable. If nothing else, it will send a terrible signal to people watching Bitcoin.

~94% drawdown in 2011.

... which stunted pretty much all real growth for the following 18 months...