Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

Civil servants do not get a cut of the money from the auction; that money goes to the Treasury (or to some general fund for the public good).  They are motivated by gold stars in their resumé, that eventually lead to promotions.  Catching and convicting criminals yields gold stars for all involved.  Carrying out a smooth auction of a weird item, with no complaints of bad press,  also yields gold stars.  They do not care if the auction messes the market or gets a lousy price, but they worry about doing something stupid that could stain their resumés -- such as auctioning a bunch of seized game tickets after the game, or auctioning so much stuff at one time that they cannot get enough bidders for it.

Civil servants are not immune from influence ranging from flattery to bribes. Bureaucrats act in their own perceived best interests just like everybody else does. They are not angels. They are not perfectly impartial. They are human, and when the personal benefits outweigh the personal costs for a given official action, they are likely to take it.

People with faulty ideology are capable of great evil in service to their false gods. They commit that evil with a clear conscience and that's what makes them so dangerous.

[paul2000]

Maybe we get a kind of damped oscillation after the crash, sideways after that?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60zig6-hourzczsg2014-09-25zeg2014-11-22ztgCzm1g10zm2g45zx

[NotLambchop]

...
People with faulty ideology are capable of great evil in service to their false gods. They commit that evil with a clear conscience and that's what makes them so dangerous.

Indeed.

[YogoH]

https://twitter.com/maraoz/status/535066347060080640

Bitpay doing $1million daily

[galdur]

Finland Classifies Bitcoin as VAT-Exempt Financial Service

Finnish regulators have classified bitcoin as a financial service, thus granting it VAT-exempt status.

The Finnish Central Board of Taxes (CBT) judged bitcoin to be a financial service in ruling 034/2014, which states that bitcoin purchases qualify as “banking services” under the EU Value Added Tax (VAT) Directive.

The ruling was issued after a court classified bitcoin as a payment instrument and sets Finland’s approach to the cryptocurrency apart from most European jurisdictions, which generally treat bitcoin as a commodity.

However, the Scandinavian nation is not completely alone in taking this approach: Belgium’s Federal Public Service Finance (FPS) issued a similar ruling in September.

Full article: http://www.coindesk.com/finland-classifies-bitcoin-vat-exempt-financial-service/

[samsonn25]

The people who bough the seized bitcoins in the first auction in July when price was around $650 should double-down.  If they indeed want to cost-average down.

[billyjoeallen]

It doesn't matter if you use moving averages or not, we have not had a double bottom because the second dip had far less volume and it should have had more.  $300 is likely to be retested and it may not hold.

I don't personally care either way because I have a pile of coins to sell if it goes up and a pile of cash to trade if it goes down. What I am most afraid of is a slow grind down and a slog through resistance on low volume. If that happens, then the next stop down is ~270.

[Tzupy]

Found a bearisher scenario than mine (I doubt support at 320$ will be broken soon):
https://www.tradingview.com/v/UH3pISov/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[octaft]

I just think its really quite funny to sit here talking about a $6 mill paper loss when even if half his prediction comes true we're talking about making $120 mill +.

I doubt he believes his own prediction, but if he can get enough other people to believe it, he can sell to them at a higher price later, which let's face it is very likely all the guy cares about.

Um no actually, due to the fact he's invested in several Bitcoin businesses as well I don't think he's looking to pump the price and dump his coins tanking his other business interests.

How would a reduced price "tank" his other business interests, considering most of these businesses will be set up to extract transaction fees which don't care about price, just usage.

I'm curious as to what bitcoin businesses this guy is even invested in. Googling the guy shows he bought a bunch of coins, plans to invest in some bitcoin businesses in the future (could be another pump line), and that he thinks it will go to 10k. No actual businesses listed anywhere, though.

[billyjoeallen]

The people who bough the seized bitcoins in the first auction in July when price was around $650 should double-down.  If they indeed want to cost-average down.

Those coins have prolly already been sold and part of the reason why we are trading at this level now.

[dreamspark]

The people who bough the seized bitcoins in the first auction in July when price was around $650 should double-down.  If they indeed want to cost-average down.

Those coins have prolly already been sold and part of the reason why we are trading at this level now.

Draper said in an article recently that he still has the coins and is likely to bid on this lot.

[tarmi]

I just think its really quite funny to sit here talking about a $6 mill paper loss when even if half his prediction comes true we're talking about making $120 mill +.

I doubt he believes his own prediction, but if he can get enough other people to believe it, he can sell to them at a higher price later, which let's face it is very likely all the guy cares about.

Um no actually, due to the fact he's invested in several Bitcoin businesses as well I don't think he's looking to pump the price and dump his coins tanking his other business interests.

How would a reduced price "tank" his other business interests, considering most of these businesses will be set up to extract transaction fees which don't care about price, just usage.

I'm curious as to what bitcoin businesses this guy is even invested in. Googling the guy shows he bought a bunch of coins, plans to invest in some bitcoin businesses in the future (could be another pump line), and that he thinks it will go to 10k. No actual businesses listed anywhere, though.

a classic bitcoin-bull-talk.

nobody knows for sure how much he did pay for his stash nor is he really hodling, but 10 k is just around the corner and he is investing heavy in some (non regulated) btc businesses. am hash on havelock maybe?

I bet he already sodl for a nice profit.

[JorgeStolfi]

Are you suggesting that the total value of seized assets they process has no effect on the number of gold stars on their resume?
Civil asset forfeiture does not need to go directly into the pockets of civil servants to create financial incentives.

Indeed it has little effect.  Seizing a large amount of money or drugs gives media exposure, and that is good for people's career; but it does not make much difference whether it was 10 million dollars or 30 million, 300 pounds of cocaine or 900 pounds.  The gold stars in the SR case rained mainly from the message "FBI sank the flagship of the Dark Web".

Consider that the prestige of a politician or general does not depend on how much money he wastes or brings to the economy. 

It all comes from the fact that those public servants are managing other people's property (for seized assets are property of the people of the US), and the owners of that property don't know what is going on, and have very little control over it.

[dreamspark]

a classic bitcointalk bull.

nobody knows for sure how much he did pay for his stash nor is he really hodling, but hey, 10 k is around the corner and he is investing heavy in some btc businesses.

I bet he already sodl for nice profit.

Dont act like I'm saying bitcoin's going to the moon because Draper, clearly thats idiotic. We're talking just about him.

Even if he did sell, all the coins are still in one place so someones holding the bag. Anyway we're talking about 30k coins which is less than 10 days supply hardly a humungous amount. BIT bought 21k in the last 3 weeks alone.

[octaft]

Draper said in an article recently that he still has the coins and is likely to bid on this lot.

And we all know people can always be taken at their word, and that people never lie, even when they think it will benefit them.

Um no actually, due to the fact he's invested in several Bitcoin businesses as well I don't think he's looking to pump the price and dump his coins tanking his other business interests.

How would a reduced price "tank" his other business interests, considering most of these businesses will be set up to extract transaction fees which don't care about price, just usage.

I'm curious as to what bitcoin businesses this guy is even invested in. Googling the guy shows he bought a bunch of coins, plans to invest in some bitcoin businesses in the future (could be another pump line), and that he thinks it will go to 10k. No actual businesses listed anywhere, though.

a classic bitcoin-bull-talk.
nobody knows for sure how much he did pay for his stash nor is he really hodling, but 10 k is just around the corner and he is investing heavy in some (non regulated) btc businesses. am hash on havelock maybe?
I bet he already sodl for a nice profit.

You talking to me or the guy I'm responding to? I am at least as skeptical as you seem to be.

[JorgeStolfi]

Civil servants are not immune from influence ranging from flattery to bribes. Bureaucrats act in their own perceived best interests just like everybody else does. They are not angels. They are not perfectly impartial. They are human, and when the personal benefits outweigh the personal costs for a given official action, they are likely to take it.

People with faulty ideology are capable of great evil in service to their false gods. They commit that evil with a clear conscience and that's what makes them so dangerous.

Can't disagree with that...

[bobabouey2]

How would a reduced price "tank" his other business interests, considering most of these businesses will be set up to extract transaction fees which don't care about price, just usage.

I'm curious as to what bitcoin businesses this guy is even invested in. Googling the guy shows he bought a bunch of coins, plans to invest in some bitcoin businesses in the future (could be another pump line), and that he thinks it will go to 10k. No actual businesses listed anywhere, though.

From this link, http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/,  his fund has invested in:

-Coinplug - Second (10-14)

-Snapcard (10-14)

-Korbit - Second 8-14)

-Volabit (7-14)

-BitPagos (6-14)

-Vaurum (5-14) - Now Mirror, and this is the one he noted the auction coin would be used for, to add liquidity http://www.coindesk.com/vaurum-rebrands-mirror/

-Coinplug - First (4-14)

-Korbit - First (1-14)

[YogoH]

The people who bough the seized bitcoins in the first auction in July when price was around $650 should double-down.  If they indeed want to cost-average down.

Those coins have prolly already been sold and part of the reason why we are trading at this level now.

You can look for yourself.  They have moved once, 1500 coins going into the nether the rest still sitting untouched.

https://blockchain.info/address/1a8LDh3qtCdMFAgRXzMrdvB8w1EG4h1Xi
https://blockchain.info/address/16cTyJLWbXQz3UZ3sYjy6A6VGX4sAqiEo1

[JorgeStolfi]

Draper said in an article recently that he still has the coins and is likely to bid on this lot.

IIRC, right after the auction he said that he intended to use those coins to "provide liquidity" for some fund or payment processor that was being set up.  In other words, sell them off-exchange to that entity.