Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

Descending wedge on 4h??

Im my opinion it was a triangle not wedge and we continue move to down after stop for this triangle.

Looks bullish to me

[Barney]

Looks bullish to me

370 support was critical. Nothing bullish here IMO.

[jonoiv]

fear will turn to greed in 10..9..8..

 

[janos666]

@ podyx - It's easier to cut down the edges in MS Paint after you know how (it's really not that difficult).

BTW, the 1d MACD is turning red. I think it's a stronger influence than a 4h MACD in inflection. And I think the last P$D generated too much noise for the 4h MACD to be reliable anyway. (Thus I expect a little more dump to follow as sleeping people weak up to realize this.)

[podyx]

@ podyx - It's easier to cut down the edges in MS Paint after you know how (it's really not that difficult).

BTW, the 1d MACD is turning red. I think it's a stronger influence than a 4h MACD in inflection. And I think the last P$D generated too much noise for the 4h MACD to be reliable anyway.
img height=400]http://prohardver.hu/dl/upc/2014-11/35956_funnybtcchart5.jpg[/img]

Wasn't really talking about MACD, was talking about a descending wedge

[janos666]

@ podyx - It's easier to cut down the edges in MS Paint after you know how (it's really not that difficult).

BTW, the 1d MACD is turning red. I think it's a stronger influence than a 4h MACD in inflection. And I think the last P$D generated too much noise for the 4h MACD to be reliable anyway.
img height=400]http://prohardver.hu/dl/upc/2014-11/35956_funnybtcchart5.jpg[/img]

Wasn't really talking about MACD, was talking about a descending wedge

BTW -> By The Way ... (I tried to indicate that I finished talking directly to you [about MS Paint], but I did follow up on you thoughts from a distance + I try not the be a post spammer).

[podyx]

ok, thanks

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder if the 50k coin sale is factored into the current price or if people will panic sell 24 hours before the auction.

I think it'll cause a price drop in the short term.

Too many people haven't got the balls to hold through rough times.
The thing is this auction isn't even a particularly bad thing.

Certain people get swayed by the media & will sell cheaply & desperately.

Worst case if the winner/s lowball/s the auction  - if they dump it on the market where would the price of bitcoin go? - providing they dump it among all the exchanges?

The infamous bearwhale dumped over 30k at $300 - might 50k fetch more or less.

Also if the winner wants to dump but holds off doing so will the market be afraid to move upward until the buyers intentions become known?

You are describing a scenario that is NOT too likely to happen. 

For example, the last time had more than 30 bidders, and this time is likely NOT going to be too different.  There will be a number of benevolent and bitcoin believers that are going to bid 5 to 10% above market price.  Accordingly, any winning bid would have to bid at least 5 to 10% above market price.

[lay785]

I wonder if the 50k coin sale is factored into the current price or if people will panic sell 24 hours before the auction.

I think it'll cause a price drop in the short term.

Too many people haven't got the balls to hold through rough times.
The thing is this auction isn't even a particularly bad thing.

Certain people get swayed by the media & will sell cheaply & desperately.

Worst case if the winner/s lowball/s the auction  - if they dump it on the market where would the price of bitcoin go? - providing they dump it among all the exchanges?

The infamous bearwhale dumped over 30k at $300 - might 50k fetch more or less.

Also if the winner wants to dump but holds off doing so will the market be afraid to move upward until the buyers intentions become known?

You are describing a scenario that is NOT too likely to happen. 

For example, the last time had more than 30 bidders, and this time is likely NOT going to be too different.  There will be a number of benevolent and bitcoin believers that are going to bid 5 to 10% above market price.  Accordingly, any winning bid would have to bid at least 5 to 10% above market price.

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

[hdbuck]

bitcoin will go nowhere without banks.

banks will go nowhere without bitcoin?! 

[Elwar]

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

How did he get burnt?

He was able to buy 50k bitcoins at a lower price than he could have paid on the exchange.

[janos666]

Or is everyone sleeping?

What happens when people weak up to realize 1d MACD just turned red?

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market

Did he? I read some related news / rumors but I don't know for sure. I think the exact price remained his secret.

[hdbuck]

I wonder if the 50k coin sale is factored into the current price or if people will panic sell 24 hours before the auction.

I think it'll cause a price drop in the short term.

Too many people haven't got the balls to hold through rough times.
The thing is this auction isn't even a particularly bad thing.

Certain people get swayed by the media & will sell cheaply & desperately.

Worst case if the winner/s lowball/s the auction  - if they dump it on the market where would the price of bitcoin go? - providing they dump it among all the exchanges?

The infamous bearwhale dumped over 30k at $300 - might 50k fetch more or less.

Also if the winner wants to dump but holds off doing so will the market be afraid to move upward until the buyers intentions become known?

You are describing a scenario that is NOT too likely to happen.  

For example, the last time had more than 30 bidders, and this time is likely NOT going to be too different.  There will be a number of benevolent and bitcoin believers that are going to bid 5 to 10% above market price.  Accordingly, any winning bid would have to bid at least 5 to 10% above market price.

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

or, the only thing you want before the auction starts is to lower the bitcoin price, so you still get em cheap paying even 20% above market price

auction: 50k BTC       major exchanges bid volumes to sub $300: <20k BTC

[lay785]

I wonder if the 50k coin sale is factored into the current price or if people will panic sell 24 hours before the auction.

I think it'll cause a price drop in the short term.

Too many people haven't got the balls to hold through rough times.
The thing is this auction isn't even a particularly bad thing.

Certain people get swayed by the media & will sell cheaply & desperately.

Worst case if the winner/s lowball/s the auction  - if they dump it on the market where would the price of bitcoin go? - providing they dump it among all the exchanges?

The infamous bearwhale dumped over 30k at $300 - might 50k fetch more or less.

Also if the winner wants to dump but holds off doing so will the market be afraid to move upward until the buyers intentions become known?

You are describing a scenario that is NOT too likely to happen.  

For example, the last time had more than 30 bidders, and this time is likely NOT going to be too different.  There will be a number of benevolent and bitcoin believers that are going to bid 5 to 10% above market price.  Accordingly, any winning bid would have to bid at least 5 to 10% above market price.

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

or, the only thing you want before the auction starts is to lower the bitcoin price, so you still get em cheap paying even 20% above market price

auction: 50k BTC       major exchanges bid volumes to sub $300: <20k BTC

Lol agreed!      

If buyer is confident of winning they should already short now and pay off the short with the auctioned bitcoins.  (if they short but dont win - then that would be funny )

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder if the 50k coin sale is factored into the current price or if people will panic sell 24 hours before the auction.

I think it'll cause a price drop in the short term.

Too many people haven't got the balls to hold through rough times.
The thing is this auction isn't even a particularly bad thing.

Certain people get swayed by the media & will sell cheaply & desperately.

Worst case if the winner/s lowball/s the auction  - if they dump it on the market where would the price of bitcoin go? - providing they dump it among all the exchanges?

The infamous bearwhale dumped over 30k at $300 - might 50k fetch more or less.

Also if the winner wants to dump but holds off doing so will the market be afraid to move upward until the buyers intentions become known?

You are describing a scenario that is NOT too likely to happen. 

For example, the last time had more than 30 bidders, and this time is likely NOT going to be too different.  There will be a number of benevolent and bitcoin believers that are going to bid 5 to 10% above market price.  Accordingly, any winning bid would have to bid at least 5 to 10% above market price.

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

I agree with some of your points regarding  the factual scenario; however, I do NOT agree with your logic regarding ongoing motivations of likely bidders.

1) regarding the prior auction, we do NOT know for sure what the bid price(s) was; however, a reasonable inference is that Draper paid much higher than market value in order to be able to win all 10 lots of nearly 30k coins.  Accordingly, the market price was then around $600, and he likely paid at least $650 per coin, and possibly close to $700 per coin. 

2) draper and several of the bidders like him are long on bitcoin.  Most likely, they would have preferred BTC prices to go up after the auction, yet I doubt that they are too concerned about the up and down prices of bitcoin, unless they come to conclude that BTC prices are NO longer able to go up.  I think a lot of these well to do players in the bitcoin space (including guys like draper) have a sufficient degree of confidence in bitcoin that they can even likely on their own engage in a form of BTC price manipulation (to the upward direction) that will cause BTC prices to go well beyond $1k per coin.  I believe that they just question when to push for such upward price direction b/c likely they would want to use market forces (and NOT only their own money) to assist in accomplishing the next BTC bubble (whether that takes place in the next month or even in the next year or two.

3) Yes agreed that it seems that there are going to be three auctions in about the 50k quantity in the near future... but only one of the auctions has been scheduled - so we cannot be 100% sure that the other two potential auctions will take place and if so when and/or how they would take place, if they were to occur.  In that regard, I doubt that low balling the first auction will result in any kind of winning bid, b/c it seems to continue to be likely that the winning bids are going to be well over market price b/c there are a few true believers with plenty of money participating in the bidding process.

[solex]

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

How did he get burnt?

He was able to buy 50k bitcoins at a lower price than he could have paid on the exchange.

This.
Some users here simply can't or don't want to think.

It was 30k that Draper bought earlier in the year. However, to some HNW individuals these are worth more than "normal" market-sourced bitcoins, because the US Marshal's coins have been laundered by the government.

[lay785]

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

How did he get burnt?

He was able to buy 50k bitcoins at a lower price than he could have paid on the exchange.

This.
Some users here simply can't or don't want to think.

It was 30k that Draper bought earlier in the year. However, to some HNW individuals these are worth more than "normal" market-sourced bitcoins, because the US Marshal's coins have been laundered by the government.

#sarcasm

I hope?

[BitAddict]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

They are not worried about $20 drop, they are worried because after 1 year price went down $900 from top... and bottom is still undefined. A lot of people is in a huge red territory without seeing the end of the tunnel.
This new opportunity to break the bear market is nearly wasted again, and they are scared to see it going down again in the near term.

Most of them are in completely fear without knowing what to do. They are scared to dump "too low now" and see the price go up while they miss the action after all this time waiting and huge losses, but on the other hand they could be heading to bigger losses, so they don't know what to do.
Their only plan was to get rich quick, they never thought they could lose money...