Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I wonder if the 50k coin sale is factored into the current price or if people will panic sell 24 hours before the auction.

I think it'll cause a price drop in the short term.

Too many people haven't got the balls to hold through rough times.
The thing is this auction isn't even a particularly bad thing.

Certain people get swayed by the media & will sell cheaply & desperately.

Worst case if the winner/s lowball/s the auction  - if they dump it on the market where would the price of bitcoin go? - providing they dump it among all the exchanges?

The infamous bearwhale dumped over 30k at $300 - might 50k fetch more or less.

Also if the winner wants to dump but holds off doing so will the market be afraid to move upward until the buyers intentions become known?

You are describing a scenario that is NOT too likely to happen. 

For example, the last time had more than 30 bidders, and this time is likely NOT going to be too different.  There will be a number of benevolent and bitcoin believers that are going to bid 5 to 10% above market price.  Accordingly, any winning bid would have to bid at least 5 to 10% above market price.

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

I agree with some of your points regarding  the factual scenario; however, I do NOT agree with your logic regarding ongoing motivations of likely bidders.

1) regarding the prior auction, we do NOT know for sure what the bid price(s) was; however, a reasonable inference is that Draper paid much higher than market value in order to be able to win all 10 lots of nearly 30k coins.  Accordingly, the market price was then around $600, and he likely paid at least $650 per coin, and possibly close to $700 per coin. 

2) draper and several of the bidders like him are long on bitcoin.  Most likely, they would have preferred BTC prices to go up after the auction, yet I doubt that they are too concerned about the up and down prices of bitcoin, unless they come to conclude that BTC prices are NO longer able to go up.  I think a lot of these well to do players in the bitcoin space (including guys like draper) have a sufficient degree of confidence in bitcoin that they can even likely on their own engage in a form of BTC price manipulation (to the upward direction) that will cause BTC prices to go well beyond $1k per coin.  I believe that they just question when to push for such upward price direction b/c likely they would want to use market forces (and NOT only their own money) to assist in accomplishing the next BTC bubble (whether that takes place in the next month or even in the next year or two.

3) Yes agreed that it seems that there are going to be three auctions in about the 50k quantity in the near future... but only one of the auctions has been scheduled - so we cannot be 100% sure that the other two potential auctions will take place and if so when and/or how they would take place, if they were to occur.  In that regard, I doubt that low balling the first auction will result in any kind of winning bid, b/c it seems to continue to be likely that the winning bids are going to be well over market price b/c there are a few true believers with plenty of money participating in the bidding process.

[solex]

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

How did he get burnt?

He was able to buy 50k bitcoins at a lower price than he could have paid on the exchange.

This.
Some users here simply can't or don't want to think.

It was 30k that Draper bought earlier in the year. However, to some HNW individuals these are worth more than "normal" market-sourced bitcoins, because the US Marshal's coins have been laundered by the government.

[lay785]

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

How did he get burnt?

He was able to buy 50k bitcoins at a lower price than he could have paid on the exchange.

This.
Some users here simply can't or don't want to think.

It was 30k that Draper bought earlier in the year. However, to some HNW individuals these are worth more than "normal" market-sourced bitcoins, because the US Marshal's coins have been laundered by the government.

#sarcasm

I hope?

[BitAddict]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

They are not worried about $20 drop, they are worried because after 1 year price went down $900 from top... and bottom is still undefined. A lot of people is in a huge red territory without seeing the end of the tunnel.
This new opportunity to break the bear market is nearly wasted again, and they are scared to see it going down again in the near term.

Most of them are in completely fear without knowing what to do. They are scared to dump "too low now" and see the price go up while they miss the action after all this time waiting and huge losses, but on the other hand they could be heading to bigger losses, so they don't know what to do.
Their only plan was to get rich quick, they never thought they could lose money...

[hdbuck]

Yes but the thing is last time tim draper got badly burnt with his strategy of buying above market - and additionally the 50k coins currently up for auction arent even the entire stash. theres even more to come... If I were a bidder I would lowball the first auction and see if there was a demand before bothering to pay above market -

How did he get burnt?

He was able to buy 50k bitcoins at a lower price than he could have paid on the exchange.

This.
Some users here simply can't or don't want to think.

It was 30k that Draper bought earlier in the year. However, to some HNW individuals these are worth more than "normal" market-sourced bitcoins, because the US Marshal's coins have been laundered by the government.

laundering coins with laundered fiat. so good to be gov officials.

[Tzupy]

I'm going to sleep, I hope I won't miss the fun. Tomorrow the market should decide, up or down.

Tomorrow has come and it's down. If this continues for a couple of days, the bullish scenario gets flushed down the toilet.

[janos666]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

They are not worried about $20 drop, they are worried because after 1 year price went down $900 from top...

Well, let's say you bought at ~1000$ (just like everybody else did, right...? ). You lost ~650$ already. Does it really matter if you loose another 100 (350->250) even 200 (350->150) per coin? You can not possibly loose more than what you already did, so you are technically "in the green" no matter what. Right? (I don't really think so, but some might argue so...)

[hdbuck]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

They are not worried about $20 drop, they are worried because after 1 year price went down $900 from top...

Well, let's say you bought at ~1000$ (just like everybody else did, right...? ). You lost ~650$ already. Does it really matter if you loose another 100 (350->250) even 200 (350->150) per coin? You can not possibly loose more than what you already did, so you are technically "in the green" no matter what. Right? (I don't really think so, but some might argue so...)

who teh f#ck bought at 1k? seriously?!!!

[madmat]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

They are not worried about $20 drop, they are worried because after 1 year price went down $900 from top...

Well, let's say you bought at ~1000$ (just like everybody else did, right...? ). You lost ~650$ already. Does it really matter if you loose another 100 (350->250) even 200 (350->150) per coin? You can not possibly loose more than what you already did, so you are technically "in the green" no matter what. Right? (I don't really think so, but some might argue so...)

who teh f#ck bought at 1k? seriously?!!!

And didn't buy some more at lower price !!!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

They are not worried about $20 drop, they are worried because after 1 year price went down $900 from top...

Well, let's say you bought at ~1000$ (just like everybody else did, right...? ). You lost ~650$ already. Does it really matter if you loose another 100 (350->250) even 200 (350->150) per coin? You can not possibly loose more than what you already did, so you are technically "in the green" no matter what. Right? (I don't really think so, but some might argue so...)

I've invested close to 8,000 GBP.
I'm down about 2,000 GBP based on todays price.

I'm HODLING, all in cold storage.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[samsonn25]

You could buy more now at 350 and cost average down

[samsonn25]

Everybody needs to relax.

People have some serious issues if they are worrying about a 20 dollar drop in price.

They are not worried about $20 drop, they are worried because after 1 year price went down $900 from top...

Well, let's say you bought at ~1000$ (just like everybody else did, right...? ). You lost ~650$ already. Does it really matter if you loose another 100 (350->250) even 200 (350->150) per coin? You can not possibly loose more than what you already did, so you are technically "in the green" no matter what. Right? (I don't really think so, but some might argue so...)

who teh f#ck bought at 1k? seriously?!!!

alot of people   lol

[noobtrader]

bitcorn back to fair price of 350

[billyjoeallen]

we could end this dumping in a week if we all just sell now, buy back @$300 for a successful retest of support. You would increase your coin stash and the great bull market of 2015 could start early. If we let the price grind down, we'll all be too broke for a successful double bottom and support won't hold. This has happened so many times. When will we figure it out?

You think there's no trend reversal to uptrend until we double bottom @$300? Must another whale sacrifice his fortune for the general good?

In my opinion, there was a double bottom already in terms of moving averages + we had a little over-exaggerated dip on top of the first bottom thanks to the ManBearWall anomaly. But the market didn't seem to care about that, so I was sitting here, waiting to panic-sell... And now I am waiting to panic-buy with some profit.

yeah, good luck with that.

[spooderman]

buying time

[jonoiv]

buying time

+1  Rally incoming

Edit:  BTC-e above finex is always a sign

[600watt]

this is ladies

[Tzupy]

this is ladies

This is the new bitcoin slang for going down?

[cbeast]

WOW, I guess we're going down then...

Just doesn't make a lot of sense to me

FWIW, probably just a retest of $350, before up up up

Probably not. Ripple is reaching a huge momentum. Enter now before it doubles over night. +40% this week and this is only the beginning.

Fuck off with your Ripple.
Take it to a ripple forum which probably has about 8 posters.

Just like bitcoin at the beginning I like your open minded approach

Even Ripple Labs doesn't say stuff like that. Even if this is a speculation ploy, it's unworthy of a bitcointalk.org Donator.